urbanSTL

There are some things happening in St. Louis that could point this region down a very good path. 

We just need leadership that is going to capitalize upon the region's growing strengths.

Wow; this is the most encouraging news I've heard in a while. We've got to keep this snowball rolling. 

Bored? Fill out your census form!
www.2020census.gov

The yearly census says the city lost 3,000 people in the last year (19,000 since 2010) and county lost 1,000 - I am sure Covid-19 will delay the census this year so who knows when we will get the real numbers 

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... the-latest

This is what depresses me about STL I know there’s been many many positives however this is like knockout gut punch. Nothing will never change as long as we stay divided as a city county. This fragmentation does far more harm than anything. Not saying I want to move but I desire to live in a region where leadership equals togetherness.


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Count me as a city transplant from the county.

I'm sure a lot of the city loss in the past decade has to do with the North. I'd be interested in seeing what neighborhoods in the Central Corridor and Southside have seen the most growth.

In the end, though, are we really surprised at the numbers?

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PlatinumBlues wrote: ↑

Mar 26, 2020

This is what depresses me about STL I know there’s been many many positives however this is like knockout gut punch.  Nothing will never change as long as we stay divided as a city county.  This fragmentation does far more harm than anything. Not saying I want to move but I desire to live in a region where leadership equals togetherness.


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A lot has changed actually-  City is going to be 55% white after the 2020 census and north side is going to lose 45,000 people.   thats very different from the 1990/2000's, when whites fled the City.   Its pretty clear whats happen-  black family of 3-4 leave a city and is replaced by a white couple with no kids. 

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Mar 26, 2020

City is going to be 55% white after the 2020 census and north side is going to lose 45,000 people. 

Despite its challenges and the land clearance for the NGA a Northside population loss of 45,000 is extremely unlikely.
In 2010 there were just under 100,000 residents in north St. Louis. That would mean over 45% of them departed (with no new replacement residents). It would also be 2.5X the population loss in the prior decade of 17,570. 

Also, the numbers beer city cited have the City estimated to have lost 19,000 total since the last census.

Who would have thought that census response rates are correlated with income

i don't understand her hashtags.

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

Apr 30, 2020

i don't understand her hashtags.

I think #PERIDOT is for some reason an autocorrect of #PERIOD 

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

Apr 30, 2020

i don't understand her hashtags.

I think it's safe to say that she doesn't either. 

^ correct. Like most slang, “Periodt” started in the overlap of people of color and LGBTQ+.

You’d be introduced to an entirely new language by watching one episode of RuPauls Drag Race.

ok, but what about #MAPS, #MeasurableOutcomes, #THIS, #RESOURCES, #WENeedYOU, #HIRING, #WEAreALLInThisTOGETHER, and #Anew26? is that how hashtags work now? just arbitrarily hashtag half the words in every tweet? i'm glad i left Twitter.

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

May 02, 2020

ok, but what about #MAPS, #MeasurableOutcomes, #THIS, #RESOURCES, #WENeedYOU, #HIRING, #WEAreALLInThisTOGETHER, and #Anew26? is that how hashtags work now? just arbitrarily hashtag half the words in every tweet? i'm glad i left Twitter.

Definitely not opposed to people leaving any sort of social media, it's a scourge on society. However, I do routinely find myself weeks ahead with regard to news flow due to twitter. (Seriously OT, apologies.)

The distribution of response rate is unfortunate, but definitely makes sense logically. With everything else occurring right now, it would not shock me if this is one of the lowest ever voluntary response rates nationally, corresponding quite horribly to one of the more important censuses we've had as a nation.

I get the feeling this Census will be one of the most inaccurate ones in a long time and will cause potentially very inaccurate congressional and legislative redistricting that will reverberate this decade. Not to mention there is strong potential that the fallout from the virus could result in people moving at a faster place than before as a result due to uneven recoveries and how different counties and states have reacted along with how bad the virus was in different places. 

New City of St. Louis population estimates for 2019 just came out.  Below is the Post-Dispatch article.  Here are some of my thoughts:

1. Rather than looking at this as black flight, I'd like to see some stats on family flight vs. singles and couples inflow.  
2. Also, are people moving out  directly?  Or are people in the city dying / retiring and their kids choosing to live in the suburbs or other metros where they can get a good home more suitable for family living than much of the older city stock?  
3. The population of the city may just be shifting to mirror the population demographics of the metro area as a whole.  

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/city-of-st-louis-population-decline-led-by-loss-of-black-residents-census-estimates-show/article_989a8aee-9a46-5554-ab59-41a76bb730da.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. 

I wonder how far back the lockstep decline decade-over-decade of both demographics goes. Interesting that there appears to be the first increase (albeit slight) for the City's white population in a decade since at least 1980.

If I'm not mistaken, black flight lagged white flight in St. Louis by a number of years. Hopefully the recent growth in the white population is a leading indicator of population growth among a broader demographic going forward. 

wabash wrote: ↑

Jun 25, 2020

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. 

I wonder how far back the lockstep decline decade-over-decade of both demographics goes. Interesting that there appears to be the first increase (albeit slight) for the City's white population in a decade since at least 1980.

If I'm not mistaken, black flight lagged white flight in St. Louis by a number of years. Hopefully the recent growth in the white population is a leading indicator of population growth among a broader demographic going forward. 

Here are the plots with a couple more data points going back to 1940.

^Hmmmm. Looks like those last charts don't include census data for 1950 or 1960. The population of St. Louis City actually grew between 1940 and 1950. 

Hopefully the city can figure out how to stop and reverse black flight, I don't want to see that trend continue.

If the 2020 Census numbers are anywhere close to these it will mean St. Louis' slowest population decline (around 5.8%) since 1950.