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PostApr 19, 2019#551

The North-South Metrolink line is supposed to help some of those neighborhoods, but I agree that something needs to be done. 

That being said, Kansas City has done okay despite doing almost nothing to help the people and neighborhoods on its east side. 

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PostApr 19, 2019#552

arch city wrote: Actually......African Americans are spreading out in the city. South City, Central Corridor and Downtown have seen increases in black pop. Keep in mind the city's black population still hovers around 50%. With that said, others have moved to west county, St. Charles county and even to the metro east. And yes, others have moved away from region altogether.
Appears from census tract data estimates that as a whole the black population has continued to decrease in the Central Corridor with the exception of downtown and a few other limited areas. South City black population also dropped slightly last decade, but it might be growing now... but even that seems complicated with decline in many of the gentrifying areas and concentration in areas like Dutchtown. And some growth west of S. Kingshighway, which was almost all white until recently.

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PostApr 20, 2019#553

Wolfpaw wrote: St Louis’s population exodus won’t stop until there’s billions being poured into the weakest link and that weakest link is North St Louis.  This has been going on well before Ferguson in fact I don’t think Ferguson has had the kind of effect that most were expecting. As much as I love all the rehabs and construction going on the central and south areas there has got to be a way to getting investments into our impoverished neighborhoods in the north. What St Louis is doing now is great however there’s no renaissance until the population begins to grow again. St Louis could level out around 275-285 thousand unless something dramatic is done from here on out.


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South city still needs tons of investment as well. I was shopping in a store in Dutchtown today and a shooting happened right across the street, with undercover agents making a raid just a few blocks away. 

Never been that close to a shooting, all because I wanted to shop at a particular store. There are plenty of places in S. City that you take your life in your hands just to do normal, everyday tasks...I don't know why people gloss over the fact that large parts of S. City aren't booming or safe.

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PostApr 20, 2019#554

I completely get what you’re saying however I’m willing to wager which area is receiving the most development excluding the central corridor. By far the north half sees far far less development and opportunity. The potential N/S rail line isn’t going to cut it though it’s a step in the right direction if it comes to fruition. Alls I’m saying is if St Louis really wants to see population growth and a true rebirth renaissance then begin investing in the area that’s long been neglected. I wouldn’t mind seeing all
of North StL designated as a historic district to save what’s left of it.

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PostApr 20, 2019#555

olvidarte wrote:
Wolfpaw wrote: St Louis’s population exodus won’t stop until there’s billions being poured into the weakest link and that weakest link is North St Louis.  This has been going on well before Ferguson in fact I don’t think Ferguson has had the kind of effect that most were expecting. As much as I love all the rehabs and construction going on the central and south areas there has got to be a way to getting investments into our impoverished neighborhoods in the north. What St Louis is doing now is great however there’s no renaissance until the population begins to grow again. St Louis could level out around 275-285 thousand unless something dramatic is done from here on out.


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South city still needs tons of investment as well. I was shopping in a store in Dutchtown today and a shooting happened right across the street, with undercover agents making a raid just a few blocks away. 

Never been that close to a shooting, all because I wanted to shop at a particular store. There are plenty of places in S. City that you take your life in your hands just to do normal, everyday tasks...I don't know why people gloss over the fact that large parts of S. City aren't booming or safe.
I live in KC's Country Club Plaza and there are shootings and crime there too.  And that's an upscale shopping district more on par with Clayton than South St. Louis.  Late last year some guy took an AR-15 and shot up a VW he got into an argument with, a couple years before that 3 people were gunned down at 47th and Broadway (literally the center and busiest part of the neighborhood, and right in from of my building) in a drive by shooting.  There was a murder in the library parking garage before that...I could go on. Unfortunately crime is everywhere.  You're pretty much putting your life in your hands no matter where you go in this country.

Now, that's not to minimize your concern, crime has always been more of a problem in Dutchtown, Graviois Park and other nearby places than most the rest of South St. Louis.  Those are areas that you rightly note have been left out of the revitalization that has taken root in other parts of the City (though I hear Gravois Park has some projects going so hopefully we'll start to see some improvement there).  I haven't noticed anyone really "glossing" over these problems, I think most here understand crime is a huge problem in the city still, but there is nothing wrong with highlighting the good news either, and chunks of the South Side growing again is good news.  Now we just have to figure out how to spread it to Dutchtown.

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PostApr 20, 2019#556

I think whats really happening is that many of the existing north county folks are the ones moving to St. Charles and points west while the north city crowd is taking their place in the county 

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PostApr 20, 2019#557

^ +1.

^^ A lot of poverty concentration in greater Dutchtown area as n'hoods to the north have gentrified. Will be very interesting to see whether that dynamic moves further south. For now, Cherokee to Chippewa seems to be a bit of a gray area and South of Chippewa needing concentrated effort for neighborhood investment.

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PostApr 27, 2019#558

This shows a bit more detail on trend up to 2018 with net domestic/international migration summaries as well as birth/death rates...

STL Metro...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... s%2C_MO-IL

STL City...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... Louis_city

STL County...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... uis_County

St. Charles Co...
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... les_County

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PostMay 07, 2019#559

Does anyone have data that could support OR oppose my skepticism of Metro East population decline? 
According to the recent estimates, Metro East lost 17,839 while Metro West gained 35,201between 2010 and 2018... 

I'll admit that I don't get over there very frequently but I haven't seen anything that has shown me 18,000 people have moved from Metro East. 
I wonder how much of the methodology is impacted by Illinois's macro-economic impacts that may not actually be happening (as severely) in this part of the state.

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PostMay 07, 2019#560

What do you mean "you don't see anything"? I would guess that the majority of the people moving out are very low income rural dwellers, aren't you extrapolating from what you see in urban areas such as Belleville etc?

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PostMay 07, 2019#561

kipfilet wrote: What do you mean "you don't see anything"? I would guess that the majority of the people moving out are very low income rural dwellers, aren't you extrapolating from what you see in urban areas such as Belleville etc?
One would think that the population losses would be concentrated on East St. Louis, Venice, Cahokia, Granite City, Alton, etc. 

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PostMay 08, 2019#562

Alton feels like a sleeper pick to buck the trend and gain some younger professionals who want to live near St. Louis, in a historic-ish district, and not pay Webster/Kirkwood pricing for historic homes. There’s a LOT of cool houses over there that could be rehabbed back into amazing shape.

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PostMay 08, 2019#563

The African-American middle class needs to be reestablished and there needs to be diverse neighborhoods on the northside to bring it back. How to do that? Not sure. Heavy investment in schools? Obviously, it's the big question but I feel that the whole side needs a master plan. 

I always felt it was interesting, when I moved here, that people described the North and South sides as the black and white sides but I have found that certainly isn't true as the southside is the most diverse side of the city. Now maybe the central corridor... 

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PostMay 08, 2019#564

^ The reestablishment of the African American middle class (not that there has ever been a very large African American middle class) is based totally on national public policy. There is nothing that can be done at the local level in any city that would suddenly make African American incomes, net worth, social stability on par with European Americans. 

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PostMay 08, 2019#565

I realize this is overly simple and I do not remember where I read this, but at some point in my past I read this and it has always stuck with me:

Irrespective of race, an individual is nearly certain to rise above poverty (towards middle class) if he/she
1. Graduates from high school
2. Engages in some kind of post-high school endeavor such as community college...trades...the military...certainly a 4-yr college
3. Waits until at least age 21 to get married
4. Waits until after marriage to have children

I would add: lucky enough to avoid health problems, and stay out of criminal problems

Whether it is urban dwellers or rural dwellers, black, white or any other, these would seem to be good goals. To what degree society, which is to say, the government can promote such things would be a primary question. 

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PostMay 08, 2019#566

addxb2 wrote: Does anyone have data that could support OR oppose my skepticism of Metro East population decline? 
According to the recent estimates, Metro East lost 17,839 while Metro West gained 35,201between 2010 and 2018... 

I'll admit that I don't get over there very frequently but I haven't seen anything that has shown me 18,000 people have moved from Metro East. 
I wonder how much of the methodology is impacted by Illinois's macro-economic impacts that may not actually be happening (as severely) in this part of the state.
I think it's likely the problem may be as much people aren't moving in as it with out-migration (which afflicts most of the midwest). Metro East generally isn't capturing existing residents moving from the city or STL County like Jefferson and Saint Charles Counties does, and it is losing out to the City (and County) on young people moving into the region. Coupled with likely low international immigration and generally smaller household size, it's hard for it to grow absent a jobs boom.

Another way of looking at it is that the Metro East is set up to bear the brunt of the overall region's static population condition.

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PostMay 09, 2019#567

ImprovSTL wrote:I always felt it was interesting, when I moved here, that people described the North and South sides as the black and white sides but I have found that certainly isn't true as the southside is the most diverse side of the city. Now maybe the central corridor... 
I feel like that's probably a generalization from forty years ago and it's simply stuck. At one time redlining made that almost official, as the only neighborhoods where African Americans were allowed to own or even rent were on the northside or in the metro east. (Often near factories and railroad yards where they could work.) Then two things happened more or less simultaneously in the sixties and seventies: redlining and housing discrimination were outlawed and de-industrialization began to take a toll on America's older industrial hubs. I don't want to get into the causes of de-industrialization as they're really remarkably complicated, but I don't think it's reality or affects are particularly disputed. Anyway, the fallout from these two things was beginning to be felt in the 80s as white families fled the city, maybe the near southside and southern industrial fringe foremost at the time. It was enough of a thing that for a time even the Central West End was actually affordable and hipply alternative. At that time, African American families began moving into the south side in larger numbers. And the far fringes of the south side are still pretty white. Southampton is nothing if not the St. Louis of old. Of course, the only part of town to see significant working class international immigration was probably the south side, as that's where the refugees that landed here actually stayed for a while.

So no, it's not like that now. But as a part of the historical narrative there's a certain truth to it. And as a result, the north side is half abandoned and terribly poor and the southside is only a fifth or sixth abandoned and somewhat poor. Where it hasn't become trendy yet, anyway.

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PostMay 20, 2019#568

addxb2 wrote: Does anyone have data that could support OR oppose my skepticism of Metro East population decline? 
According to the recent estimates, Metro East lost 17,839 while Metro West gained 35,201between 2010 and 2018... 

I'll admit that I don't get over there very frequently but I haven't seen anything that has shown me 18,000 people have moved from Metro East. 
I wonder how much of the methodology is impacted by Illinois's macro-economic impacts that may not actually be happening (as severely) in this part of the state.
St. Clair County IL
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... air_County

Madison County
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... son_County

Monroe County
https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/data/popu ... roe_County

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PostMay 20, 2019#569

Is there anything that Illinois can do to help Metro East? 

I'm not sure that there is, given the politics and economics of the state. 

It would just be nice to center the metro population in downtown, as opposed to Clayton or somewhere around there. 

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PostMay 20, 2019#570

Illinois doesn't WANT to help the metro east. Illinois = Chicago, and that's where all the money goes and they're not going to do anything to create competition for it.

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PostMay 20, 2019#571

On one hand - you're absolutely right that Chicago gets nearly all the focus.  On the other - the Metro East is somewhat of a large area to focus a ton of resources on when you look at how the region compares to other cities on any population density map.  For the larger cities of Edwardsville, Belleville, Alton, etc there's a ton of open space and zero density in between.  It would be different if Edwardsville was where East St. Louis is and Belleville was right next door.  Basically, my point is that the Metro East's resources get spread out geographically so it makes less impact.  

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PostMay 20, 2019#572

^ it's a shame because Alton and Grafton could be absolutely amazing. Edwardsville is lovely but there just aren't enough people in the metro to take it to the next level.

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PostMay 20, 2019#573

I will say, for one thing, the bike transit on the east side is much superior to ours. 

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PostJun 01, 2019#574

Interesting St Louis Fed article: https://research.stlouisfed.org/publica ... -so-slowly
They apply a statistical model that is known to have good predictive power for metro population growth to the different counties of St Louis metro. Model predicts well growth/decline in St Charles county and St Louis city, but completely misses the mark in St Louis county (model predicts much faster growth). Article blames this on "This shortfall is not driven by unexpectedly slower net birth rates, but faster-than-expected migration out of the region. One might interpret this shortfall as indicating (i) the region has experienced declines in productivity or quality of life relative to other MSAs and, as a result, (ii) households believed they could achieve a higher quality of life by moving to a new location."

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PostAug 30, 2019#575

Estimates based on estimates and pure estimates :p
2020 census estimate jp.jpg (177.4KiB)

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