The estimates definitely need to be seen as just that and I wouldn't be surprised at all by much better performance in the 2020 count than what the estimates say now. But as equally important as how many people we may be gaining in the hotter n'hoods is how many people we may be losing elsewhere. I think it's safe to say North of Delmar continues to drop, but what about places in South City like Bevo and Dutchtown that have high density? I think those kind of places where there could be substantial loss that isn't really that visible -- kind of like TGS, etc. last decade -- are sort of the unknown factors that will determine our 2020 fate.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑May 31, 2018I think 2020 Census numbers will be a surprise for St.Louis in a good way. There has been so much residential added in the last 3-4 years that its hard to square away with the July 1 2017 update.
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I think the numbers on the Northside are going to be worse than most of us here might expect.
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^ North lost 16% last decade; 2010 population was almost right at 100,000 so if it repeats that drop for this decade it would be a loss of around 16,000 people and a 2020 population of about 84.000.
If that happens, I think the Central Corridor would surpass North Corridor in population sometime in the 2020's absent significant change in direction. (My bet is Central population will be around 75,000 give or take a couple thousand in 2020; a gain of 15K or so.)
If that happens, I think the Central Corridor would surpass North Corridor in population sometime in the 2020's absent significant change in direction. (My bet is Central population will be around 75,000 give or take a couple thousand in 2020; a gain of 15K or so.)
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TBH - They are more and more surprising to me every year they come out. I keep expecting them to find the bottom, and they keep going down and down...
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Census estimates for racial composition/Hispanic Origin were released recently.... the city's population decline since 2010 has been entirely from the continuing decline in black population. White and other races have grown. (Steady for whites when excluding Hispanics and Latinos.) Meanwhile, County decline stems from a loss in whites.
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk
This might be listed somewhere else but on TRex's report, they list the downtown population to now be 19,525 in 2018. An increase of 43% from 2010 they say. Not sure if this was their data or census data.
They are counting downtown, downtown west and midtown as "downtown" it would seem.
http://report.downtowntrex.org/
They are counting downtown, downtown west and midtown as "downtown" it would seem.
http://report.downtowntrex.org/
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^ I suspect that's an estimate coming from Downtown STL.... and that's probably for the 'Greater Downtown" area that includes parts of surrounding n'hoods like Laf. sq., Columbus Sq. and a small slice of Midtown to account for Wells Fargo employment.
Kinda surprised the estimate for the 'Downtown Core" hasn't yet surpassed 10,000 if that's taking in downtown + downtown west.
Kinda surprised the estimate for the 'Downtown Core" hasn't yet surpassed 10,000 if that's taking in downtown + downtown west.
^ I looked at the Downtown STL Inc. website and it does appear their boundary for "Greater Downtown" extends up to Cass and includes both Columbus and Carr Square. It does not include anything south of Chouteau, so Lafayette Square, Lasalle Park and others aren't likely included in that number. It also does extend slightly west to take Wells Fargo in, but I'm not sure how that would goose the residential population numbers all that much. I very highly doubt a majority of their 5,000 or so employees Downtown actually live Downtown.
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^ they may have redrawn boundaries but I'm pretty sure they included South to Park Ave at one time. As for Midtown, not sure if it captures that Senior tower just north of W-FA but yeah, only a tiny percentage of the pop at best would come from Midtown.... but for employment it would be a meaningful amount.
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Downtown Core (downtown+west) is at 10,700 or so by latest numbers ive seen...the 19,250 is River, Cass, jefferson, Chouteau
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^ I don't see how the numbers add up without including South of Chouteau to Park like in the past. 2010 population for Columbus Square and Carr Square was just 4,600 combined and I doubt they grew much since.
City continues to lose, over 5,000 in the last year. The County added less than 300. The St. Louis region as a whole lost people this year as well.
99.9% chance that St. Louis City falls under 300,000 after the 2020 Census.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... 7ea71.html
99.9% chance that St. Louis City falls under 300,000 after the 2020 Census.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... 7ea71.html
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This is so depressing.
The Central Corridor is adding people, but North City is completely emptying out.
St. Louis City will get down to, what, 280,000 - maybe even 250,000 - before it starts adding people again?
I'm definitely rooting for Better Together, and a huge disruption to the status quo in St. Louis.
This is the kind of news that takes the wind out of your sails.
The Central Corridor is adding people, but North City is completely emptying out.
St. Louis City will get down to, what, 280,000 - maybe even 250,000 - before it starts adding people again?
I'm definitely rooting for Better Together, and a huge disruption to the status quo in St. Louis.
This is the kind of news that takes the wind out of your sails.
^ I wouldn't let it take the wind out of your sails, this has been the same story in St. Louis, especially the city, for over 60 years now. There is still plenty of good to celebrate about St. Louis and its future. For me more than anything this is just a hit to civic pride, I wasn't expecting any growth to happen as long as the North Side continues to empty out. Consolidation is definitely the way forward, and not just from a population stand point, but for the ability to do something about the issues that plague the parts of the city and county that are emptying out, primarily the North.
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I love St. Louis and that is never going to change.
Obviously, I think St. Louis has a bright future ahead of itself, or I wouldn't be moving there, or commenting on this forum.
But I just can't wait for that article that says, "St. Louis City gains 5,000 residents."
Obviously, I think St. Louis has a bright future ahead of itself, or I wouldn't be moving there, or commenting on this forum.
But I just can't wait for that article that says, "St. Louis City gains 5,000 residents."
The emptying out of North City is very alarming but conditions up there are so bad I can't blame people for wanting to move somewhere else.
Post-Dispatch has some more details. Population growth is being seen throughout the Central Corridor, the Tower Grove area and some South Side neighborhoods. Which is actually really good news, seems much of the South Side has largely stabilized and in many parts is now growing again. Last year's population loss was almost exclusively on the North Side, as it was the year before.
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... op-story-1
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/met ... op-story-1
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I understand the emptying of North City. I have no problems understanding that. I'd leave, too.
But what really sucks is that they're not leaving for St. Louis County. And they're not leaving for St. Charles County, or for Franklin County or Jefferson County. And they're not hopping state lines for Metro East, either.
They're getting the hell out of St. Louis.
But what really sucks is that they're not leaving for St. Louis County. And they're not leaving for St. Charles County, or for Franklin County or Jefferson County. And they're not hopping state lines for Metro East, either.
They're getting the hell out of St. Louis.
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While none of us can truly tell where people are moving, St. Charles County gained almost 4K, STL County 300, Jeff Co. 400 and STL City lost 5K. Again, no way to tell where the 5K moved, the surrounding counties gained almost as much as the City lost. The metro is stagnant, no doubt, but saying that all of the lost residents left the region, is pure speculation.KansasCitian wrote: I understand the emptying of North City. I have no problems understanding that. I'd leave, too.
But what really sucks is that they're not leaving for St. Louis County. And they're not leaving for St. Charles County, or for Franklin County or Jefferson County. And they're not hopping state lines for Metro East, either.
They're getting the hell out of St. Louis.
In relation to the City, this has been another bad PR year. Terribly disfunction government, squabbling between the police chief and "prosecutor", much press on endless carjackings and crime, bickering and dysfunction within the Board of Alderman, fear-mongering related to a City-County merger and trash piling in dumpsters due to late pick-up, to name a few. The City as usual, has major issues, some in perception only, a lot reality. This should cause the merger conversation to heat up further.
On a positive note, cranes are everywhere, new developments are proposed and under construction, many transformational. The City is really on the up and up with regards to development. I just not sure how much momentum can continue, with stagnant growth in the region. In the end, it all comes down to JOBS. We must continue to transform our economy away from manufacturing. I think Cortex and other start-up communities are setting us up for growth. We need more of this, along with growth with our legacy companies. It is also crucial to continue to invest in our infrastructure, cultural amenities and education. Nothing new, same old issues, same lack of leadership and continued stagnant growth. Major changes our needed!
I would also take these numbers with a grain of salt. They are estimates. They are always readjusted.
This is not incorrect. Last year a somewhat big deal was made about St. Louis Metro falling out of the top 20 largest Metros. Well after an adjustment, that turned out to not be the case and St. Louis' still retains that 20th spot.robertn42 wrote: I would also take these numbers with a grain of salt. They are estimates. They are always readjusted.
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Yep, it is mostly about jobs. Keep and add good high paying jobs. Will get the day time population up and people will inevitably move to surrounding areas. Lot of work needs to be done on crime and schools but jobs is priority number 1. Cortex, Centene, and the universities/medical centers will be the driving force. Really hoping the NGA adds jobs and buildings to that site over time.DogtownBnR wrote:While none of us can truly tell where people are moving, St. Charles County gained almost 4K, STL County 300, Jeff Co. 400 and STL City lost 5K. Again, no way to tell where the 5K moved, the surrounding counties gained almost as much as the City lost. The metro is stagnant, no doubt, but saying that all of the lost residents left the region, is pure speculation.KansasCitian wrote: I understand the emptying of North City. I have no problems understanding that. I'd leave, too.
But what really sucks is that they're not leaving for St. Louis County. And they're not leaving for St. Charles County, or for Franklin County or Jefferson County. And they're not hopping state lines for Metro East, either.
They're getting the hell out of St. Louis.
In relation to the City, this has been another bad PR year. Terribly disfunction government, squabbling between the police chief and "prosecutor", much press on endless carjackings and crime, bickering and dysfunction within the Board of Alderman, fear-mongering related to a City-County merger and trash piling in dumpsters due to late pick-up, to name a few. The City as usual, has major issues, some in perception only, a lot reality. This should cause the merger conversation to heat up further.
On a positive note, cranes are everywhere, new developments are proposed and under construction, many transformational. The City is really on the up and up with regards to development. I just not sure how much momentum can continue, with stagnant growth in the region. In the end, it all comes down to JOBS. We must continue to transform our economy away from manufacturing. I think Cortex and other start-up communities are setting us up for growth. We need more of this, along with growth with our legacy companies. It is also crucial to continue to invest in our infrastructure, cultural amenities and education. Nothing new, same old issues, same lack of leadership and continued stagnant growth. Major changes our needed!
Actually......African Americans are spreading out in the city. South City, Central Corridor and Downtown have seen increases in black pop. Keep in mind the city's black population still hovers around 50%. With that said, others have moved to west county, St. Charles county and even to the metro east. And yes, others have moved away from region altogether. I'm willing to bet indigenous black St. Louisans have moved to Dallas, Houston, Atlanta and Nashville. Each of these regions have exploding black cultural scenes - and jobs.
What does St. Louis have?.......Ferguson. Ferguson has been a permanent social stain on metro St. Louis. Who wants to stay or move to a city where the respect level among the races is so poor.
What does St. Louis have?.......Ferguson. Ferguson has been a permanent social stain on metro St. Louis. Who wants to stay or move to a city where the respect level among the races is so poor.
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St Louis’s population exodus won’t stop until there’s billions being poured into the weakest link and that weakest link is North St Louis. This has been going on well before Ferguson in fact I don’t think Ferguson has had the kind of effect that most were expecting. As much as I love all the rehabs and construction going on the central and south areas there has got to be a way to getting investments into our impoverished neighborhoods in the north. What St Louis is doing now is great however there’s no renaissance until the population begins to grow again. St Louis could level out around 275-285 thousand unless something dramatic is done from here on out.
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