county population estimates (including independent cities like STL & Baltimore) will be released to the public tomorrow... always a fun time!.
- 9,565
Ugly ugly ugly. City lost 4500 according to the stl today piece. But not sure if that’s correct. Piece says it’s 308,600 now but last update we were at 311,400, so a difference of 2800
Yes, you appear to be right. Not sure why the Post-Dipatch is using incorrect figures.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Mar 22, 2018Ugly ugly ugly. City lost 4500 according to the stl today piece. But not sure if that’s correct. Piece says it’s 308,600 now but last update we were at 311,400, so a difference of 2800
- 1,054
STL metro now 21st in nation. Swapped places with Baltimore. Typical “no need to panic” response. Seems like panic will only occur when STL metro drops below 1.2 million.
On census.gov St. Louis is #4 on the table of 'Top 10 Counties With Numeric Decrease: 2016-2017':
-RBB
Code: Select all
Top 10 Counties With Numeric Decrease: 2016-2017
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|2017 | 2016 | County | 2017 | 2016 | Numeric | Percent |
|Rank | Rank | | Population | Population | Change | Change |
|-----|------|----------------------------|------------|------------|---------|---------|
| 1 | 1 | Cook County, IL | 5,211,263 | 5,231,356 | -20,093 | -0.4 |
| 2 | 2 | Baltimore city, MD | 611,648 | 616,958 | -5,310 | -0.9 |
| 3 | 5 | Cuyahoga County, OH | 1,248,514 | 1,253,454 | -4,940 | -0.4 |
| 4 | 7 | St. Louis city, MO | 308,626 | 313,144 | -4,518 | -1.4 |
| 5 | 10 | Allegheny County, PA | 1,223,048 | 1,227,553 | -4,505 | -0.4 |
| 6 | 71 | Honolulu County, HI | 988,650 | 992,761 | -4,111 | -0.4 |
| 7 | 6 | Milwaukee County, WI | 952,085 | 955,369 | -3,284 | -0.3 |
| 8 | 124 | Anchorage Municipality, AK | 294,356 | 297,376 | -3,020 | -1.0 |
| 9 | 3 | Wayne County, MI | 1,753,616 | 1,756,598 | -2,982 | -0.2 |
| 10 | 19 | Kanawha County, WV | 183,293 | 186,097 | -2,804 | -1.5 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Does anyone know how they go about these estimates? How accurate are they? I am not surprised the city is down but I am surprised as the article said it is the biggest decline since 2010.
I don't know if this is comforting or not, but Pittsburgh keeps bleeding population as its economy booms and the city is the most prosperous it has been (its GDP per capita surpassed that of the US for the first time in history in 2015).
The aggregate numbers do not look good, but I am under the impression that there are a lot of composition changes going on : poorer and less educated people moving out, more educated people moving in. This has been documented in Detroit, Pittsburgh and Cleveland (coincidentally, all of these cities make it to the list of top10 countries with largest numerical decrease). I wouldn't be surprised if it's the case in STL city as well.
The aggregate numbers do not look good, but I am under the impression that there are a lot of composition changes going on : poorer and less educated people moving out, more educated people moving in. This has been documented in Detroit, Pittsburgh and Cleveland (coincidentally, all of these cities make it to the list of top10 countries with largest numerical decrease). I wouldn't be surprised if it's the case in STL city as well.
Where are the actual numbers? Media outlets are only publishing changes
Interactive map on this site. about halfway down.
http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/in ... o-continue
- 289
I hate to say it, but I do think it’s time for City elected officials to hit the panic button. Dipping below 300k would be really bad. Our electeds need to figure out why people are leaving and what can be done to remedy the matter.
Most likely population shifts will be in north city and not to mention homicides (1100+ homicides since 2010). North city is so neglected that the city leaders are surprised by these numbers means they clearly aren't paying attentionSouthCityJR wrote: ↑Mar 22, 2018I hate to say it, but I do think it’s time for City elected officials to hit the panic button. Dipping below 300k would be really bad. Our electeds need to figure out why people are leaving and what can be done to remedy the matter.
edit: I do wonder if the county and city leaders finally will see some sort of consolidation needs to happen sooner then later as they are both hurting now
So, they got the 4,500 number by revising our population last year upwards from the ACS estimate? What the hell? Does the Census Bureau have an axe to grind with us?
If they did not do that, we would not even be on the top 10 for population loss. This is a load of ****.
If they did not do that, we would not even be on the top 10 for population loss. This is a load of ****.
Taxes, crime, and schools.
And no, you should not expect any meaningful changes from the people running things. They have no incentive to change anything. They'll announce some crap initiative, and people will forget this. They'll announce Yet Another Sales Tax Increase, and y'all will vote for it due to some sh*tty rationalized reasons. The crime will get better, but that won't be due to any actual improvement, but due to literally nobody being left to commit any crime in North City.
Immigrants aren't going to help you, jacking the sales tax up to infinity isn't going to help. Wiping the city government clean, with a new structure and 100% new personnel, and a functional school system are what is going to help. You need to make it easy and cheap to open a business in the city (taxes and crime). You need to make it attractive for families to live here, and STAY here (crime and schools).
The past couple decades have been all about trying to drag in immigrants and childless hipsters/yuppies/high earners who can pay those taxes. Hasn't reversed the decline. Maybe it's time to humble up, admit that strategy was wrong (or at least, very suboptimal), and change the approach to what has worked in the past.
And no, you should not expect any meaningful changes from the people running things. They have no incentive to change anything. They'll announce some crap initiative, and people will forget this. They'll announce Yet Another Sales Tax Increase, and y'all will vote for it due to some sh*tty rationalized reasons. The crime will get better, but that won't be due to any actual improvement, but due to literally nobody being left to commit any crime in North City.
Immigrants aren't going to help you, jacking the sales tax up to infinity isn't going to help. Wiping the city government clean, with a new structure and 100% new personnel, and a functional school system are what is going to help. You need to make it easy and cheap to open a business in the city (taxes and crime). You need to make it attractive for families to live here, and STAY here (crime and schools).
The past couple decades have been all about trying to drag in immigrants and childless hipsters/yuppies/high earners who can pay those taxes. Hasn't reversed the decline. Maybe it's time to humble up, admit that strategy was wrong (or at least, very suboptimal), and change the approach to what has worked in the past.
Tough to overcome hte forces spreading out the region.
Imagine if the wealth applied to running so many towns, building lots of new infrastructure to spread us out, taxes diverted in the TIF fueled sales tax chase, the money spent on fuel and cars to support longer commutes had gone into the causes of crime, schools, people's pockets?
St Louis County has grown 0.1% annually in population since 1970. All the resources it took to spread it out in that time have had little ROI.
Imagine if the wealth applied to running so many towns, building lots of new infrastructure to spread us out, taxes diverted in the TIF fueled sales tax chase, the money spent on fuel and cars to support longer commutes had gone into the causes of crime, schools, people's pockets?
St Louis County has grown 0.1% annually in population since 1970. All the resources it took to spread it out in that time have had little ROI.
I agree with what's been said, however I don't trust any estimate.
Last decade they exaggerated growth in the city and that was wayyy wrong.
Last decade they exaggerated growth in the city and that was wayyy wrong.
This seems to be legitimately questionable. The Census Bureau's Quick Facts page for St. Louis City still lists the old number for 2016:
^ That's a difference of 2,778 people, which would put St. Louis below Kanawha County, WV. That would put St. Louis City either 10th or 11th, depending on who's currently in the 11th spot on their list. That's also assuming they didn't upwardly revise any of the other numbers, which I haven't verified.Population estimates, July 1, 2017, (V2017) 308,626
Population estimates, July 1, 2016, (V2016) 311,404
Will have to see if I can dig up why they changed the 2016 numbers exactly. Is STL City still disputing the estimated numbers, or did they do away with that after the 2010 census?
-RBB
- 2,430
The 313,000 number comes from a different census set...
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... RES&src=pt
https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tab ... RES&src=pt
It was way wrong because the Census agreed to revise annual estimates upwards after getting complaints from the City about how we were undercounted. So basically they essentially were right before they were wrong. We've given up challenges after the actual Census indeed showed loss.
I agree but to be fair most of our peers that are growing more rapidly like Indy are largely doing so via sprawl and devouring greenfields.... having a state capitol and/or major state research university along with a lesser exposure to a rust belt past also helps. Yet Indy/Marion County sill is struggling with high crime, high poverty and crappy streets/highways. And IPS is worse than SLPS.quincunx wrote: ↑Mar 22, 2018Tough to overcome hte forces spreading out the region.
Imagine if the wealth applied to running so many towns, building lots of new infrastructure to spread us out, taxes diverted in the TIF fueled sales tax chase, the money spent on fuel and cars to support longer commutes had gone into the causes of crime, schools, people's pockets?
St Louis County has grown 0.1% annually in population since 1970. All the resources it took to spread it out in that time have had little ROI.
We're simply in a difficult situation with regards to how to grow population, especially with immigration possibly being stunted nationally with new administration policies. How to pursue more urban-oriented policies like the Twin Cities while not having quite their same macro-drivers as the state capital and massive state U is our challenge.
- 289
Anyone have a guess as to how much population was lost in Northside? Has to be massive.
- 2,430
^ I think its safe to assume the bulk of the loss is coming from North. I recall some numbers pulled from some ACS data from a few years ago that suggested that as well. I think a relatively accurate snapshot of the city is that it is gaining in Central Corridor, relatively holding its own in South and continuing to decline in North with some variations w/in corridor n'hoods. More adults and fewer children. More educated and immigrants.. More concentrated poverty. More concentrated wealth.
Edit... just adding that the last two estimate years (2016 & 2017) is where things have started to get concerning with overall pop. loss... the earlier part of the decade pretty much showed things relatively static/slight annual loss. I assume that the same general pattern is in play with what was in that circa 2014 ACS neighborhood data, but it would be good to see more recent data now that loss seems to have accelerated.
Edit... just adding that the last two estimate years (2016 & 2017) is where things have started to get concerning with overall pop. loss... the earlier part of the decade pretty much showed things relatively static/slight annual loss. I assume that the same general pattern is in play with what was in that circa 2014 ACS neighborhood data, but it would be good to see more recent data now that loss seems to have accelerated.
- 403
I don't see why this is surprising? North St.Louis is an utter ghetto cesspool 
. Frankly it seems like the entire region is controlled by this urban monstrosity plagued by 1-2 murders per day with almost no end in sight. Call it what you want but you can't put lip stick on a pig and call it pretty.. Believe it or not that area effects each and everyone of us thats making good while these imbeciles make no effort what so ever.
The city will sink well below 300,000
. Frankly it seems like the entire region is controlled by this urban monstrosity plagued by 1-2 murders per day with almost no end in sight. Call it what you want but you can't put lip stick on a pig and call it pretty.. Believe it or not that area effects each and everyone of us thats making good while these imbeciles make no effort what so ever. The city will sink well below 300,000
Pittsburgh Metro has lost 22,924 from 2010-2017 & this is a region in contention for the Amazons 2nd HQ.. Not sure what they need to do to grow..
Some reason i still feel optimistic
Some reason i still feel optimistic
Hard not to feel personally attacked by this comment, and see an attack on my neighbors, many of which are out working on their neighborhoods on a daily basis. While there are a lot of people causing problems on the northside, there are just as many people doing good work. Get around North St. Louis a little more. There are a lot of good and stable areas, but those areas have to deal with the same perception issues as the worst areas.St.Louis1764 wrote: ↑Mar 23, 2018I don't see why this is surprising? North St.Louis is an utter ghetto cesspool
Much of what plagues North St. Louis are structural and institutional issues that individuals and neighborhoods don't have control over. An area this large can't be revitalized without resources, and the system we as a nation have built does not provide resources anywhere close to the level needed. The private side and the public side have made choices for decades that have continued to compound the problems. While we have found crumbs here and there to make differences in some neighborhoods, many other neighborhoods have no chance. Nothing is going to change on a large scale until we have a community based plan with real teeth and resources start flowing on a large scale from all levels of government and private business. And we have to recognize that 70 years of decline is not going to turn around overnight. Complaining does nothing, action does.
So looking at some sources on 2010 census and 2014 ACS data, there's some interesting neighborhood data.... south picked up about 4,000 while north lost. Central corridor actually was a surprise with it being rather static, led by a drop in Midtown (which may be SLU-student related?) (I'm not quite sure if the City counts Covenant Blu/Grand Center as north or central corridor or a mix as its on both sides of Delmar so that would impact more exact numbers on North and Central thru 2014.)
What's interesting to note is that the 2014 estimate was 318,000 so it was essentiall unchamged from the 319,000 2010 census... since then I think Central Corridor pop has had to pick up at least some mirroring the big uptick in new units that have come online since then and I assume South hasn't lost much ground either, so I would think that the north would be bearing the brunt of the 10,000 population drop since the 2014 estimate. North Corridor very well could now be under 90,000 people.
City's 2014 ACS data:
http://stlcity.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Map ... 46fa7d7b96
Andrew Arkill's helpful spreadsheet on 2000-2014 change as well as subsidies: http://www.teamtifstl.com/analysis/ince ... 2000-2014/
(note: I'm pretty sure Franz Park, McRee Town and Ellendale are Central Corridor in City's data instead of South)
City's 2010 census data:
http://dynamic.stlouis-mo.gov/census/corridor.cfm
What's interesting to note is that the 2014 estimate was 318,000 so it was essentiall unchamged from the 319,000 2010 census... since then I think Central Corridor pop has had to pick up at least some mirroring the big uptick in new units that have come online since then and I assume South hasn't lost much ground either, so I would think that the north would be bearing the brunt of the 10,000 population drop since the 2014 estimate. North Corridor very well could now be under 90,000 people.
City's 2014 ACS data:
http://stlcity.maps.arcgis.com/apps/Map ... 46fa7d7b96
Andrew Arkill's helpful spreadsheet on 2000-2014 change as well as subsidies: http://www.teamtifstl.com/analysis/ince ... 2000-2014/
(note: I'm pretty sure Franz Park, McRee Town and Ellendale are Central Corridor in City's data instead of South)
City's 2010 census data:
http://dynamic.stlouis-mo.gov/census/corridor.cfm