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PostJun 04, 2022#4226

^Events happening too often is different from events happening more often. Nobody should have to deal with people breaking in to their house, so anytime it happens is too often. But it could still be happening less than in some previous era. Anybody have any actual statistics on this or are we just going to keep repeating anecdotes?

A quick look at the Post Dispatch Crime Tracker shows that crime in the city and county overall is down dramatically since 2006. 2021 property crime sat at just over 50% of 2006 levels, if their reporting is to be believed. The neighborhood level data is a bit more dated. You can look at 2020 vs. 2019, but they don't seem to have the detailed 2021 breakdowns in the system yet. (Incidentally, it was down over 13% in 2020 vs. 2019 both downtown and downtown west, though violent crime was up downtown in both neighborhoods in the same period.)  I don't see 2021 numbers yet, but I find it a little hard to believe that it'd be up dramatically downtown when it's down so much overall area wide.

For what it's worth, violent crime numbers are also down from 2006 pretty dramatically. 2021 stood at just over 70% of 2020 levels. But if you read comment sections on NextDoor or elsewhere you'll get the idea the apocalypse is taking place. We may have a long way to go yet, but we seem to be moving the right direction. Consistently year over year. The trend is pretty obvious, even.

Anyway, I'm not seeing any reliable evidence crime is up downtown up at all and the opposite seems more likely. So . . . does someone have some hard numbers to the contrary?

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PostJun 04, 2022#4227

A study gave cash and therapy to men at risk of criminal behavior. 10 years later, the results are in. Liberia found a stunningly effective way to reduce violent crimes. Now the US is trying a similar experiment. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23141405/violence-crime-cbt-therapy-cash-shootings

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PostJun 04, 2022#4228

symphonicpoet wrote:^Events happening too often is different from events happening more often. Nobody should have to deal with people breaking in to their house, so anytime it happens is too often. But it could still be happening less than in some previous era. Anybody have any actual statistics on this or are we just going to keep repeating anecdotes?

A quick look at the Post Dispatch Crime Tracker shows that crime in the city and county overall is down dramatically since 2006. 2021 property crime sat at just over 50% of 2006 levels, if their reporting is to be believed. The neighborhood level data is a bit more dated. You can look at 2020 vs. 2019, but they don't seem to have the detailed 2021 breakdowns in the system yet. (Incidentally, it was down over 13% in 2020 vs. 2019 both downtown and downtown west, though violent crime was up downtown in both neighborhoods in the same period.)  I don't see 2021 numbers yet, but I find it a little hard to believe that it'd be up dramatically downtown when it's down so much overall area wide.

For what it's worth, violent crime numbers are also down from 2006 pretty dramatically. 2021 stood at just over 70% of 2020 levels. But if you read comment sections on NextDoor or elsewhere you'll get the idea the apocalypse is taking place. We may have a long way to go yet, but we seem to be moving the right direction. Consistently year over year. The trend is pretty obvious, even.

Anyway, I'm not seeing any reliable evidence crime is up downtown up at all and the opposite seems more likely. So . . . does someone have some hard numbers to the contrary?
When people stop reporting crime because they can’t get through on the 911 system and police stop essentially all enforcement, then yes, crime on a stat sheet is likely to decrease. As Mark Twain once said “There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”.

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PostJun 04, 2022#4229

^ Do you have a statistic on callers that give up?

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PostJun 04, 2022#4230

I haven’t found any stats on callers who give up before they have their 911 call answered, but there’s evidence/statistics that show that there are long wait times (at least data up through 2021).

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/cri ... 63c0f.html

Based on this article, 5% of calls waited more than 2 minutes. And only 64% of 911 calls were answered in 10 seconds or less. I’ve had multiple experiences in the last year where I called 911 (once after witnessing a drunk driver cause a bad accident and another two due to gun shots) and was on hold for multiple minutes before the call was answered.

(If there’s data for 2022 that shows improvement, that’s great news. I just didn’t find anything in my search)

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PostJun 04, 2022#4231

I love how people on this board try to defeat arguments by saying “show me the stats” or “if there’s no proof it isn’t true”. There are a lot of stats that are not easily obtainable, don’t exist at all, or simple do not accurately describe what is happening.

Stats should certainly be used as a guide but not necessarily the final say. A large sample of people’s experience and sentiment of what’s happening is often a lot more powerful.

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PostJun 04, 2022#4232

Of course, whatever you think is true must be and you have the final say. Why didn't we think of this sooner?

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PostJun 04, 2022#4233

I think @downtown2007 has a bit of a point though - a decrease in some statistical rates isn't going to change the perception many hold of downtown. Especially when stories like the teens breaking into City View or shootings on Wash Ave are recent headlines.  And sure, downtown has seen an increase in residential growth BUT there's so much more potential that isn't being tapped.  Crime is still a problem, especially to those who aren't on UrbanSTL or are stat nerds like we are.  Perception is something that can't just be tossed aside.

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PostJun 04, 2022#4234

Perception is everything to the average man-on-the-street, and we've got a looooong way to go before the perception of crime Downtown is improved.

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PostJun 05, 2022#4235

But what about the those stats…

16-year-old girl shot, 1 other grazed in downtown St. Louis. During a weekend with a massive NASCAR event and hotels packed.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/crime ... 987b5c45cb

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PostJun 05, 2022#4236

mikenewell48 wrote:
Jun 04, 2022
A study gave cash and therapy to men at risk of criminal behavior. 10 years later, the results are in. Liberia found a stunningly effective way to reduce violent crimes. Now the US is trying a similar experiment. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23141405/violence-crime-cbt-therapy-cash-shootings
Thank you for that! It's nice to see a positive story on here every once in a while. I hope the system works as well in Chicago as it did in Liberia. Maybe this can go national and actually make some real changes. :)
Laife Fulk wrote:I haven’t found any stats on callers who give up before they have their 911 call answered, but there’s evidence/statistics that show that there are long wait times (at least data up through 2021).

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/cri ... 63c0f.html

Based on this article, 5% of calls waited more than 2 minutes. And only 64% of 911 calls were answered in 10 seconds or less.  I’ve had multiple experiences in the last year where I called 911 (once after witnessing a drunk driver cause a bad accident and another two due to gun shots) and was on hold for multiple minutes before the call was answered.

(If there’s data for 2022 that shows improvement, that’s great news. I just didn’t find anything in my search)
That's a good question. I only have anecdotes, but I can say even when I had a long wait and hung up because someone else got through about the same event they called me back and took a statement.

All that said, I don't think the 911 calls themselves figure into the crime stats all that closely, do they? The statistic is based on police department reports, right? And if you've been robbed and want the insurance money you're going to have to file a report no matter how long it takes. And serious violent crimes end up in hospitals . . . or morgues. So again, 911 times aren't really a factor. Not sure the dispatch time makes any difference. I could be wrong, but I wouldn't guess it's a big impact. That said, it needs to be fixed in order to solve more crimes or prevent their severity from increasing, so it's a problem even if it's not likely to play into the statistics.

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PostJun 05, 2022#4237

I believe the implication is that if 911 calls are going unanswered then that could lead to a myriad of crimes of all severities unreported as would be reporters grow fatigued. After a series of these events a Good Samaritan or neighborhood steward may halt reporting things all together.

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PostJun 06, 2022#4238

^Sure. I figured that's the assumption. But I am skeptical that it's true for the reasons I listed. There are too many other ways for things to end up in the system. Particularly the serious stuff. I can believe misdemeanor grade stuff is slipping through the cracks, which is a problem, but probably doesn't affect the statistics all that much. And I can also believe that the severity of other incidents is increasing as a result. (Say if it takes longer to report a fire, or to get medical attention.) This is a real problem that needs to be addressed. I'm just not guessing it's really affecting the crime reporting all that much. I'd argue these are two separate problems. One is getting better, but still has a long way to go. The other suffered some serious setbacks that we need to address quickly and completely.

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PostJun 06, 2022#4239

What's with the laser focus on the scooters as the cause of downtown's roving youths?

Of the groups of kids roaming I see on weekend evenings, few are on scooters.

Can't they just take Metro downtown anyway?

Every downtown problem, the solution seems to be "make life worse for the law-abiding folks."

Interco Park is still fenced off. All Gateway Mall seating in DT west was ripped out. Supposedly a Kiener Plaza curfew is being enforced for all ages.

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PostJun 06, 2022#4240

I have seen little kids 9yo? flyin around downtown AND are they parents? adults on a scooter with a VERY small child on the same scooter flyin all over
"make life worse for the law-abiding folks."
Yep take all the scooters away And I would think once these scooters are gone/banned I doubt the scooter companies will jump at coming back

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PostJun 06, 2022#4241

Just wanted to say I love scooters and I'll bet none of the haters have ridden one before. 

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PostJun 06, 2022#4242

I've seen a lot of cars driving poorly. Can we get rid of those? Most criminals arrive in cars. Better get on banning them.

It's not even the scooters for me. Haven't ridden one since very early in their tenure here. It's about "fixing" things by making life worse for everybody else.

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PostJun 07, 2022#4243

^It's the most frustrating thing. No public benches, no public bathrooms, no having beers at the park, now no scooters, etc just to keep out the homeless/delinquents. 

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PostJun 07, 2022#4244

I’d personally like to see the scooters replaced with bikes. I liked having the bikes.

But I may be in the minority on that.

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PostJun 07, 2022#4245

I loved the bikes too. I was pretty disappointed when they were replaced. The scooters are certainly a "greener" and more efficient form of transportation than most, but the bikes were the bees knees (cheaper too). Man, those were the days!

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PostJun 07, 2022#4246

PeterXCV wrote:
Jun 06, 2022
Just wanted to say I love scooters and I'll bet none of the haters have ridden one before. 
I'll second this... and a few times when our car broke down, having a scooter around the corner was a life saver. 

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PostJun 07, 2022#4247

Held parents accountable for their kids actions and leave scooters alone!! Is that simple!

Btw! Midnight curfew for kids is absurd.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PostJun 07, 2022#4248

I'll weigh in----I was a guest at the hotel association board meeting about six weeks ago and this topic discussed in-depth. They were frustrated with lack of policing, need for earlier curfew, looked into geo-fencing (doable but extremely challenging and imprecise, IIRC Nashville(?) tried to go this route. This is not a STL only problem), looked at shutting down scooters at 7:00pm (another challenge), police tracking offenders though GPS/credit card/CCTV (SLPD stretched too thin). They did NOT want to remove scooters as hotel guests and downtown workers enjoy them. 

However—At BPV, (maybe other hotels?) they've had gangs speeding through the lobby and other interior parts of the building. Very dangerous, but with training and vigilance, were able to (mostly) shut that down. Also, swarms would go through the garages, checking cars for valuables. On the scooters, a half-dozen riders could canvass the East and West garages in minutes. Car break-ins have soared since the scooters. (don't ask about 'stats,' relying a discussion). The easy access to garages was the real problem that couldn't be solved with costly renovation or hired security. I had no idea it was this bad. Seems like everyone—hotels, residents, businesses—were at wits end trying to not go nuclear. The resolution was to keep the scooters and, pun intended, so how long could ride it out.

Regarding 'haters' never riding them, I can say the hotels did NOT want to remove the scooters but I think they felt the had no choice. As bad as it is, I'm sure they're like no scooters is better than this. It's sad.

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PostJun 07, 2022#4249

shadrach wrote:
Jun 07, 2022
I'll weigh in----I was a guest at the hotel association board meeting about six weeks ago and this topic discussed in-depth. They were frustrated with lack of policing, need for earlier curfew, looked into geo-fencing (doable but extremely challenging and imprecise, IIRC Nashville(?) tried to go this route. This is not a STL only problem), looked at shutting down scooters at 7:00pm (another challenge), police tracking offenders though GPS/credit card/CCTV (SLPD stretched too thin). They did NOT want to remove scooters as hotel guests and downtown workers enjoy them. 

However—At BPV, (maybe other hotels?) they've had gangs speeding through the lobby and other interior parts of the building. Very dangerous, but with training and vigilance, were able to (mostly) shut that down. Also, swarms would go through the garages, checking cars for valuables. On the scooters, a half-dozen riders could canvass the East and West garages in minutes. Car break-ins have soared since the scooters. (don't ask about 'stats,' relying a discussion). The easy access to garages was the real problem that couldn't be solved with costly renovation or hired security. I had no idea it was this bad. Seems like everyone—hotels, residents, businesses—were at wits end trying to not go nuclear. The resolution was to keep the scooters and, pun intended, so how long could ride it out.

Regarding 'haters' never riding them, I can say the hotels did NOT want to remove the scooters but I think they felt the had no choice. As bad as it is, I'm sure they're like no scooters is better than this. It's sad.
I've seen them roaring through the Kiener Garages on game days and at first thought they were just messing around on the ramps for more speed: didn't think about the break in angle.

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PostJun 07, 2022#4250

shadrach wrote:
Jun 07, 2022
I'll weigh in----I was a guest at the hotel association board meeting about six weeks ago and this topic discussed in-depth. They were frustrated with lack of policing, need for earlier curfew, looked into geo-fencing (doable but extremely challenging and imprecise, IIRC Nashville(?) tried to go this route. This is not a STL only problem), looked at shutting down scooters at 7:00pm (another challenge), police tracking offenders though GPS/credit card/CCTV (SLPD stretched too thin). They did NOT want to remove scooters as hotel guests and downtown workers enjoy them. 

However—At BPV, (maybe other hotels?) they've had gangs speeding through the lobby and other interior parts of the building. Very dangerous, but with training and vigilance, were able to (mostly) shut that down. Also, swarms would go through the garages, checking cars for valuables. On the scooters, a half-dozen riders could canvass the East and West garages in minutes. Car break-ins have soared since the scooters. (don't ask about 'stats,' relying a discussion). The easy access to garages was the real problem that couldn't be solved with costly renovation or hired security. I had no idea it was this bad. Seems like everyone—hotels, residents, businesses—were at wits end trying to not go nuclear. The resolution was to keep the scooters and, pun intended, so how long could ride it out.

Regarding 'haters' never riding them, I can say the hotels did NOT want to remove the scooters but I think they felt the had no choice. As bad as it is, I'm sure they're like no scooters is better than this. It's sad.
I would kind of like to see them to start requiring the extra renovations and security for garages and parking lots, separate from the crime issue maybe it would provide an incentive for the owners of these properties to find a higher and better use for their lots if it wasn't so easy to turn a steady profit parking cars

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