While a merger between Express Scripts and Walgreens could happen, I personally think
Walgreens would likely go after Rite-Aid stores/pharmacies - which have a major presence across the country.
Although Walgreens recently announced plans to close 200-stores, a Rite-Aid purchase
(4600 stores) would put Walgreens in more states. They could literally go coast-to-coast. Currently, Walgreens is in only 44-states.
Plus, Rite-Aid just bought Cleveland-area based, EnvisionRX (a PBM) for $2-billion. That would give Walgreens a pharmacy benefit manager (PBM), which Walgreens could grow by gobbling up other smaller PBMs along the way without much regulator scrutiny.
Plus, Walgreens would have to pay a PREMIUM for Express Scripts. Express Scripts' current annual revenue bests Walgreen's by nearly $30-billion. Rite Aid's current stock price is $8.26 vs. $88.77 for Express Scripts. Walgreens stock price has dropped to $91.42. ESRX market cap is 64.64B vs. 73.14B for WBA (Walgreens). Rite-Aid's market cap is 8.45B. To me, it seems, Walgreen's would get a bigger bang for its buck by going after Rite-Aid.
Keep in mind too that just because Walgreens is open for "a deal", it doesn't necessarily mean Walgreens will do the acquisition. Medco came to Express Scripts - even though Medco was larger company. ESRX could go after Walgreens, but I doubt it.
Additionally, the Feds would scrutinize the hell out of an ESRX (Express Scripts) and WBA (Walgreens) merger.
Anyway, I said just over two years ago
on Page 16 that Express Scripts needed to be going after Rite-Aid. They still could go after Rite-Aid, but spin-off or sell EnvisionRX after the acquisition. Also, Express Scripts should look into buying Lab Corp or Qwest Diagnostics. Or it could cobble together
medical device companies. It's time for ESRX to act like a major health care company - not just a PBM.
Last, if a full merger between ESRX and WBA occurs - St. Louis is screwed - regardless of who buys who. ESRX management would likely be downsized and the rest relocated to Chicago.
It's likely the technology, distribution and many back-office functions would stay in St. Louis.