My confidence is very high.
Right now, all we're hearing in the media is political positioning & posturing, not negotiations. It's now broadly assumed that this will be a successful venture, and now everyone wants to take credit for it.
As we're nearing the end-game, let's review the timeline...
- This all began years ago, when Paul McKee led a wholly private-sector business group into engaging the Chinese. The idea was the Chinese business community would capitalize on Lambert as a top-notch entry point into the US with excess capacity & proximate warehousing space, and McKee would capitalize on having his properties proximate to Lambert (NorthPark & NorthSide Regeneration) become busy business hubs, with new construction, warehousing, logistics management, ancillary businesses, and even residential influx.
At this time, it was simply known as "The Big Idea".
- Our Federal Representatives came in to promote this, with full bipartisan cooperation. This, after all, benefits constituents across class or philosophical affiliations by generating new business & new jobs. Plus, not only is it a concept good for the US at large, but it is especially good for MO and it's economic engine, StL.
StL Commerce Magazine special feature on the "Big Idea":
http://www.stlcommercemagazine.com/arch ... index.html
- The China Hub Commission goes underway, with the StL County Economic Development office piloting this new special subset of the regional economic development machine. Support comes in from most all related StL-based NGOs, including the RCGA, World Trade Center - Saint Louis, Civic Progress, and the MO Chamber of Commerce. Partnership between the City and County is very much evident. A StL office is opened in Beijing.
Now, "The Big Idea" is becoming better known as the "China Hub".
- Free Trade Zone Status is extended to include pretty much all of Lambert and the open areas around it, including NorthPark and the Hazelwood properties just NW of the airport. This allows for multiple development zones focused on international trade.
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stor ... tory4.html
- Delegation after delegation of Chinese business & political leaders come to StL to consider Lambert and the Metro Area, promoting the China Hub concept. High diplomacy is underway, involving government leaders (especially our Federal leaders and StL City & County leaders), with lesser involvement from certain constitutent members of the State Government. One delegation even took in the 2009 MLB All Star Game. Follow-up visits from Chinese business leaders have included non-China Hub trips, including and especially visits related to biotech capital investments. Even university education is highlighted as an area for special cooperative, mutual exchanges.
http://www.slcec.com/05-26-11-chinese-t ... visit.html
- Ancillary business developments start popping up. A continuative hub concept is opened up focused on how StL could be the midway point for China and South America (especially Brazil). Meanwhile, cargo flights originating in China begin a series of test runs to MidAmerica Airport in Mascoutah, IL.
http://www.avbuyer.com.cn/e/2010/40381.html
- Senator Eric Schmitt (R-Glendale) submits Senate Bill 390, which is subsequently given the moniker "Aerotropolis" after a socioeconomic report about how airports are to become city economic centers in the very near future (although applied loosely to the original academic definition of the term). The bill is focused on providing economic development incentives to businesses directly related in aerial logistics (warehousing and logistics management, as well as new directly-related manufacturing) relatively proximate to Lambert Airport, allowing up to $360M in tax breaks to companies that make these business commitments, and with all tax breaks being awarded in deferral to directly correlated new business activity generated in international logistics. Besides a few politically motivated outliers (scared of certain people gaining "power"), the concept largely passes both the MO House and the Senate, and doing so with massive bipartisan support.
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news ... ht-to.html
The concept is now being referred to less as the "China Hub" and more as the "Saint Louis Aerotropolis".
Now, here's where it gets really political...
- The Aerotropolis legislation doesn't make it out of the Spring Legislative Session. Largely, it was stalled by 4 Republican Senators, 3 from "out-state", who are against the utilization of government funds for business infrastructure investments. These stalls, based more on philosophical ideals rather than current global competitive realities & the needs of the state's business communities, run the clock on the session, and Bill 390, after passing both the House and the Senate, fails to be ratified. The takeaway is primarily that the out-state fiscal hawks of the GOP cannot conceptualize the potential economic benefits, nor are they interested in the potential of MO's urban areas, even though StL (and KC) is the state's economic engine.
Or, they're a bunch of rogue no-nothings that deflated the proactive opportunism in the eyes of pretty much the rest of the State Legislature, even voting against a bill from a fellow GOP'er. Idiots.
http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/loc ... tive-hours
- Reports emerge of how Governor Nixon helped promote a stalling of Bill 390. He originally wanted to cut the MO Tax Credits program further in this session (already did so by himself with the Film Commission) and was seeking further program cuts before the "Aerotropolis" program emerged, which itself would be a major new Tax Credit program. While defending the interests of an allied private developer who works in tax credit-supported low income housing development (cough - STEVE STOGEL!), Nixon pushed for Bill 390 to die as time expires by aligning himself with GOP fiscal hawks (with the secondary interest of making the GOP appear fragmented to voters for the 2012 election).
While a fundamentally Machiavellian political alignment pre-Bill 390 (if kept quiet), Nixon now comes off as a political hack, negating public good & public demand for political self-interest.
http://www.stlamerican.com/news/politic ... 002e0.html
- The option exists for Nixon to call a special session for economic development. There is precedent here, as Nixon convened the Legislature last year for a special vote to provide tax incentives towards the investment by Ford into one of its manufacturing plants in Claycomo, MO, an outlying suburb of KC. Nixon says he will convene such a session if and only if the Legislature comes together with tax credit legislation (which would include "Aerotropolis" legislation) with broad consensus backing it.
http://www.stlamerican.com/news/local_n ... 03286.html
- Nixon attempts to call in the Legislative leaders to meet with his new economic development team, which had recently made news with its focus on "five year plans" for turning around the state's economy. The Legislative leaders stave off, though, not wanting to give the Governor credit for bringing them together as they're already working on creating such legislation, and believing they're close enough to finish it without the MO Economic Development team rewriting the legislation from the start.
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news ... a=e_du_pub
- The local media, which has a history of reverse-boosterism that has anything to do with proactive vision and regional investments, begins featuring story after story about how the "China Hub / Aerotropolis" concept will not work. These reports are based on interviews with people who are less than credible, including:
* One of two authors of the
Aerotropolis book, who's peeved for not being consulted earlier & for "misuse" of the term from Bill 390's deviation from his strict original academic definition. He also serves as a consultant to Memphis FedEx, which stands to lose revenues should the "StL Aerotropolis" come into being.
* Consultants for cargo flights & logistics management for the airports of Chicago and Kansas City, both of which would also lose revenues should a "StL Aerotropolis" come into being.
* The Show-Me Institute, which backs the extreme fiscal conservatism espoused by the MO Senators who stalled out the legislation in the Spring Session. Their philosophy is focused on minimal tax utilization, even if such tax utilization is conducted as proactive investment into the creation of new business clusters specifically for the StL area.
http://nextstl.com/transportation/local ... -reporting
Meanwhile:
China Daily, the
de facto mouthpiece for the Chinese government, releases a story that proclaims a China Hub in StL will be operational by this September. Considering that this newspaper is state-run, and with a history of state-sponsored positive stories based on already determined legislation, it serves to show China's very serious intent to see this StL Hub come through.
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/epaper/201 ... 916602.htm
Today:
- The Legislature announces that it has the new tax credit legislation with broad consensus support. To be announced later this afternoon, it should feature broad tax credit cuts while leaving in others for supportive business development, including data center creation (IT Infrastructure hubs), science start-ups, and the "Aerotropolis" incentives. All it needs now is a Legislative Special Session, which can be called under the exclusive purview of the Governor.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... f6878.html
- Governor Nixon announces he's going to China (a play on an old Vulcan proverb). While it's not readily apparent what value this would give to the negotiations, it does allow Nixon to put his name further in play as related to the "Aerotropolis" legislation.
http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... 0f31a.html
This comes after a KMOX story reporting how Nixon apparently had sought fellow Democrats in the MO Legislature to vote against "Aerotropolis" legislation, apparently so he can point at political opposition as not passing the legislation necessary to promote the economic interests of the state.
http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2011/07/19/ ... b-at-risk/
Takeaway:
We're in the final stretch. I bet plenty of news stories will be popping up about all this in the next couple days. Look to see both sides wanting to take credit for this, with only a small relative chance of this thing blowing up as neither side would want to be branded as not seeking the best interests of the MO economy and the MO voter.
It's all politics now.
But, it appears the hard work of conceptualizing this whole thing into a ready business concept is complete and supported broadly in and out of the Legislature, and with Missourians of multiple political affiliations. And most generally speaking, most voters now see the passage of the "Aerotropolis" deal as a "no-brainer".
With the final passage of an "Aerotropolis" package, it'll show the Chinese that MO is committed to a cooperative business venture with them, and that we are ready to put our money where our mouth is. Considering this is a direct partnership between Saint Louis and the World's Second Largest Economy, this is really incredible and absolutely needs to have a financial commitment by both sides. The Chinese are ready to make theirs, we must show that we are ready to make ours. Should the Governor call a Special Legislative Session, and the Legislature passes their new Tax Credit program with "Aerotropolis" legislation included, then we will show the Chinese we are serious & supportive of their investing in Saint Louis and Missouri. At this time, we should see a long-term commitment made between all those involved.
And that will be the beginning of a major economic turnaround of StL.
The "China Hub" has the potential to create a major cluster for international aerial logistics. Besides China-US commerce, it could set the stage for welcoming other East Asian markets to enter the Central US, such as South Korea and Malaysia. This could further expand into Latin America, welcoming their flights with goods bound to East Asia into StL as a central point of exchange. Passenger flights will most certainly come with the international business, and with StL as the Logistics Business Hub. StL will then most certainly become a more globally engaged City. Tax revenues will skyrocket, both City and County, and even with up to $300M+ in tax breaks for initial investments into the business cluster. Jobs will be created throughout the region in support of this initiative. Business will move to StL from across the US and across the world, when not new HQs then new regional or divisional operations centers. Commercial real estate will boom with increased office demand; new residents will promote a possible demand in the, belive it or not,
US residential housing market. The major universities will become even greater centers for international student programs than they are now. We can anticipate an inflow of new Saint Louisans from abroad, especially from China, as well as others from across the US seeking to capitalize on thew new business clusters. And, this could lead to the foundational growth necessary to see the economic revitalization for North City while greatly benefitting the economies of North County.
Billions upon billions of dollars in new business revenues, and new jobs galore.
These are exciting days, with great hope for Saint Louis' future. Keep hope alive.
