urbanSTL

I don't know if I agree that city crime is declining because of a more even distribution of the population likely to commit crime. First, criminals don't necessarily commit within jurisdictions they live in, and I haven't seen any studies indicating connections either way (that is, whether they are likely to commit in or out of jurisdiction).

But, even if it were true that population movement is responsible, there'd have been a much greater population shift in the last ten years than there has been (or in the last three years) to account for the significant decline in crime in the city.

After all, did 26% of the people likely to commit violent crime leave the city in the last 12 months? From Jan. to May 2012, 2,600 violent crimes were committed in the city, while from Jan. to May 2013, only 2,100. Did 300 to 500 violent criminals move to the county or die?

Another way to put it: from 2011 to 2012, the city went from 320,500 residents to 318,500, a loss of 2,000 people. Index crime declined from 31,500 incidents to 27,500 incidents, a drop of 4,000 incidents. If the argument is that crime statistics are showing declines because of a movement of criminal populations, then all of the net 2,000 people who either died or moved out were responsible for two crimes apiece, including those who are moving to the suburbs for better schools, infrastructure, etc.

stlhistory wrote:I don't know if I agree that city crime is declining because of a more even distribution of the population likely to commit crime. First, criminals don't necessarily commit within jurisdictions they live in, and I haven't seen any studies indicating connections either way (that is, whether they are likely to commit in or out of jurisdiction).

But, even if it were true that population movement is responsible, there'd have been a much greater population shift in the last ten years than there has been (or in the last three years) to account for the significant decline in crime in the city.

After all, did 26% of the people likely to commit violent crime leave the city in the last 12 months? From Jan. to May 2012, 2,600 violent crimes were committed in the city, while from Jan. to May 2013, only 2,100. Did 300 to 500 violent criminals move to the county or die?

Another way to put it: from 2011 to 2012, the city went from 320,500 residents to 318,500, a loss of 2,000 people. Index crime declined from 31,500 incidents to 27,500 incidents, a drop of 4,000 incidents. If the argument is that crime statistics are showing declines because of a movement of criminal populations, then all of the net 2,000 people who either died or moved out were responsible for two crimes apiece, including those who are moving to the suburbs for better schools, infrastructure, etc.

A better question might be "who" left the city? It's well known that if there are 31,500 crimes, that they weren't perpetrated by 31,500 individuals. I would guess that County crime numbers have risen, even though county population is flat. One accepted correlation is poverty and crime...those in poverty are more likely to both commit and be the victims of crime. Poverty is increasing in the county, and (I think) decreasing in the city, by some measures (median income).

downtown2007 wrote:What is the trend for crime in Kirkwood? Up or down?

If you mean month to month, I can't help you. But the FBI stats available on City-data.com for Kirkwood through 2011 shows a crime index of 222 (2008), 164 (2009), 186 (2010), and 158 (2011). It is notable that the year of 222 was the year of the 6 murders at City Hall. If there's been any uptick in crime, I don't think anyone around here has noticed.

Of course, there was a murder here yesterday, but there was a murder in my little town of 7,000 people in southern Illinois a few weeks ago too. I don't think that's anything to be shocked about in a city of nearly 30,000 people.

roger wyoming II wrote: Local news had an alarming story last night about Bosnian-Saint Louisans concerns about crime in Dutchtown. I think in addition to the murder of a Nepalese refugee's, a Bosnian clerk was also shot to death not too long ago. Anyway, there was a meeting with police and they interviewed the business association head.... he has been here in Saint Louis for 19 yrs. and says this is the first time he is feeling really scared. Not good.

It was also on KMOX. Their spin on the meeting is that the Bosnian community in the city is both pissed off and scared. They also said this recent shooting of the convenience store clerk was the last straw for some Bosnians and that a number of them are looking to move to the suburbs.

Crime by neighborhood through June 2013 is posted:
http://www.slmpd.org/crimestats/CRM0005-C_20130601.pdf

Overall, crime continues to decline (with the exception of rape due to changed definition). Violent crime is down 20% and property crime is down 4% from 2012 (which itself was quite a good year). For reference, the Census estimated the city's annual population loss from 2010 to 2011 and from 2011 to 2012 at 0.2% per year, so as long as crime decreases at rates faster than population, we're seeing good movement.

Overall index crime rate for Jan. to June 2012 was 8,414.9 per 100,000; using adjusted population figure for Jan. to June 2013, it's 7,829.0 per 100,000. To put it another way, the first six months of 2013 have been statistically the safest in St. Louis since 1964 (when the index crime rate was roughly 7,830 per 100,000).

^ 49 murders through first half of year. I hope we're under 100 for the year; alex has tweet up that last year there was one more murder in second half than first, so we very well may fall below the century mark.

Weren't there a couple fluke murder suicides recently? Second half could be less than 49.

Three homicides were due to a murder-suicide incident on June 13 on Cherokee Street and two homicides from another murder-suicide incident on June 29 on Tennessee Avenue.

^That could substantially reduce crime numbers for the metropolitan region and for the city for this year beyond the declines already in the bag. Really big news.

More on Thursday's massive ATF arrests:
http://fox2now.com/2013/07/11/almost-20 ... crackdown/

This operation was focused on the ATF and local police deputized into Federal service, lasting from April to the first half of July. More than 200 arrests were conducted Thursday morning. Those arrested have a previous arrest history that includes 2,300+ felonies, the majority of which are violent crime felonies. That's averaging over 10 previous felonies per arrestee. ATF stated they were seeking trigger men. 267 guns were seized, along with pounds of drugs set for distribution.

Five neighborhoods in STL were targeted. On the North Side, StLPD & ATF went into Penrose, College Park, Fairgrounds Park, and O'Fallon Park. On the South Side, they went into Dutchtown. On the East Side, the focus was on four cities: Alorton, Brooklyn, Washington Park, and East Saint Louis.

Regarding the East Side communities, it was stated that the Feds were brought in because they had no faith in the abilities of these communities to police themselves, that the law had effectively broken down there and were de facto lawless cities comparable to the Wild West. Assuming so, it looks like the ATF came into town playing the role of the Earp Brothers.

Steve Wiggington, US Attorney for Southern Illinois, stated:
"East Saint Louis has the highest rate of violent crime in the nation, per capita. East Saint Louis has the highest homicide rate in the nation, per capita. Second place isn't even close."

Think about that. This is really, really scary stuff.

For all the work that has taken place to restore & build Saint Louis, MO, the endemic problems in and proximate to East Saint Louis, IL will continue to hold back the rest of the Metro Area. But, who's really addressing this?

How can we restore East STL? Because it's that much harder to restore STL when East STL is in such terrifying conditions. We mustn't forget that we can't fully fix one without fixing the other.

gone corporate wrote: How can we restore East STL? Because it's that much harder to restore STL when East STL is in such terrifying conditions. We mustn't forget that we can't fully fix one without fixing the other.

For starters, it would help if the IL state gov. had some semblance of functionality. I can't remember who said it here, but someone said their state gov. makes ours look like a well-oiled machine, and I tend to agree.