urbanSTL

Ogilvie not running again for the 24th

I also want to point to what needs to be changed about government in the St. Louis region: Everything.

Everything. Government in the region needs to be completely remade from the ground up. It does not work in St. Louis City, it does not work in the poorer areas of St. Louis County. We accept that rich people get excellent services because they wall themselves into suburban enclaves and avoid engaging with the rest of the region, and we accept that poor people will have poor services because they are poor. We accept that the middle class will endure a series of choices driven by anxiety and fear rather than love and optimism.

http://ward24stl.org/news/2018/10/11/a- ... on-in-2019

Very sad to be losing Ogilvie from the board. The kind of thoughtful, progressive public servant we need many more of in the region.

Ebsy wrote: ↑

Oct 12, 2018

Very sad to be losing Ogilvie from the board. The kind of thoughtful, progressive public servant we need many more of in the region.

Really bummed me out. Not just because I saw Ogilvie as a potential mayoral candidate but because the letter came off very defeatist.

^ generally, this where people who try to care about St. Louis end up. it's a ***** up mess and most people in the region either don't give a sh*t or they have an interest in keeping it this way. the longer you're here the harder it is to avoid the defeatism.

26th will be an open seat

quincunx wrote: ↑

Nov 30, 2018

26th will be an open seat

Williamson is retiring? It also appears Terry Kennedy is leaving.

He's taking a job in the Treasurer's Dept

quincunx wrote: ↑

Feb 12, 2019

Has anyone met the 26th Ward candidates? I missed the candidate forum.

If anyone is curious about the 26th Ward race.

Banton:
https://www.bantonforstl.com/ https://www.facebook.com/friendsofjakebanton/
Hubbard:
https://twitter.com/schubbard26?lang=en https://www.facebook.com/shameem.clarkhubbard
Price-Land:
https://www.facebook.com/PriceLand426th/

Price-Land and Hubbard don't have websites. Looks like Hubbard doesn't have a campaign Facebook page.

I asked them about merger. Sounds like a no-brainer for Banton.

I was at Mahler Ballroom with the Nasheed campaign folks last night; they were still optimistic as late as 9pm.

https://www.ksdk.com/elections

Shameem Hubbard won in 26!

Here is the Ward by Ward results. I am sure someone else will have more detailed maps than I do but they help for now. It's interesting to note that Lewis Reed didn't win by Ward count (he only won 5 Wards) but won by staying in the 30% range where Nasheed and Green won. By carrying the 5 Wards, that helped cement his place, he won re-election. turnout was also low in places where Nasheed and Green won but high in the areas where Reed won. Let's start with the turnout map...

KEY:
Dark: 26%+
Semi-Dark: 21%-25%
Normal: 16%-20%
Light: 11%-15%
Very Light: Less than 10%

City-wide turnout: 17.83%
Highest turnout Ward: 8th Ward at 28%
Lowest turnout Ward: 5th Ward at 10%


Now onto the results.
Lewis reed won 5 Wards
Megan Green won 10 Wards
Jamilah Nasheed won 13 Wards

KEY:
Dark: 61%+
Medium: 50%-60%
Light: 30%-49%


Now for the candidate Ward by Ward results. Lewis Reed was the only candidate to not get over 60% in a Ward. He came close at 59% in the 16th Ward.
KEY:
Dark: 60%+
Normal: 50%-60%
Light: 30%-49%
Very Light: 20%-30%
Non-Existent: Less than 20%


Here you can see exactly how Reed won despite not carrying a majority of the Wards. The Margin of victory between Jamilah Nasheed and Megan Green in the Wards they carried opened up a path for Lewis Reed to come in. He occupies the votes separating the two in each Ward. To cement his victory, the 5 Wards he won came in handy.

^Nicely done Chris. Your maps are clear and have precisely the information they need, I would say. Very informative. And actually somewhat surprising, though I suppose it probably shouldn't be.

I guess I should have posted about it in here instead of the Better Together Thread, but I intend to make a precinct map once the data is released by the Board of Election Commissioners. Reed certainly put together an interesting coalition to win, and again shows how the Catholics in Southwest City continue to dominate City-wide elections through high turnout.

I'd estimate from the Ward results that Nasheed likely got around 60-65% of the black vote while Reed got 25-30% and Green coming in under 10%, with Nasheed doing particularly well on the Northside. The white vote was likely split 50/50 or 55/45 between Green and Reed, with the Southwest City whites (lots of cops, firefighters, city employees) going heavily for Reed while the Central Corridor and Tower Grove area gentrifiers going heavily for Green.

being familiar with team nasheed- they realized early she wasnt getting much in SW City so they did a lot of work to push that vote alway from Reed and to Green, but its a tight rope act because you dont really want to push too much of the vote and she wins, i would say 2000-2500 votes that green got were from that effort to bring Reed down within a beatable number. Plan was to get 60% in North- check, split central pretty much 3 way- check and 22-24% in south city as a whole, came up a a little short there. Other option was to push North City turnout to be 35% of the total vote (it was 28%) but the weather really f'ed that up. In north city people have to go longer to the polling place and there are more zero car households. I am fairly confident in a ranked choice election that 60-65% of the Green vote would have gone to Nasheed and she could have beaten Reed in a instant runoff 52-48

Fantastic maps Chris. I could have hardly thought of a better metaphor for the dominant social groups in the city than this primary election.

Here is the long awaited precinct map for this month's election. I might make some more and do a more quantitative analysis since I now have precinct data for 2019, 2017 and 2013 so there might be some insights.

Looks like the Board of Alderman is finally addressing ward reduction:

"The St. Louis Board of Aldermen is forming a Ward Reduction Advisory Committee to get public input as to what going from 28 to 14 wards would mean for the city.
The committee will study the effects of ward reduction on the Board of Aldermen, budgets and constituent services. The group will then be tasked with providing recommendations."

https://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/wo ... e#stream/0

^I wonder if he's ever resolved his many outstanding traffic tickets? 

What a waste of time. So frustrating. So many other things to work on.

They only got the vote through the full board last time due to behind the scenes dealmaking with some of the South City aldermen. Who knows what they will want as a bribe this time. And yes, hopefully Krewson will kill this again.