quincunx wrote:2001 $21B
2017 $28.9B
Says current dollars, so not inflation adjusted.
April 2001 to April 2017 CPI inflation 38.2%
21* 1.382 = $29B
No GDP growth over 16 years
2017 $28.9B
2021 $32.75B
April 2017 to April 2021 CPI inflation 9.2%
28.9 * 1.092 = $31.56B
32.75/31.56 -1 = 3.8% over 4 years
2021 $32.75B
2023 $38.6B
April 2021 to April 2023 CPI inflation 13.6%
32.75 * 1.136 = $37.2B
38.6/37.2-1 = 3.8% over 2 years
Again, and I cannot stress this enough, the source Auggie is using is real GDP, which already accounts for inflation..
Totally, butler really wants to see jones get votes from his voters in order for him to advance
Well either Jones or Butler is being eliminated in the primary so that is one of two possible outcomes here. I would guess that Jones has access to some kind of polling to inform her decision but we have a voting system that makes voter behavior very hard to model. Given that Jones had very high unfavorables in in the one poll that we do have and that she needs more than just the people that approve of her to get into the runoff, she needs to get votes from somewhere. Butler may get some secondary votes from Spencer supporters so he could theoretically benefit from a vote alliance with Jones.
I think Butler is getting a decent amount of support from places like where I live. Obviously not a majority or anything, but he seems to be taking a healthy amount of previous Jones supporters along with a fraction of previous Spencer supporters.
Campaign finance reports for 8 days prior to election are due today by 5. we will get a look how look how campaigns have been spending their money up until Feb 20th
Amongst political observers, Jones was cruising for an easy win until that snow storm. How much damage has that done? We’ll see in 8 days. But both her and Spencer are heavy favorites for April.
Jones has won 3 citywide races. Turnout will be low, we’ll see which one can get their 25,000 voters in April
Driving through the north side today (Vandevrnter, St. Louis Place, Old North). Saw 3 yard signs for Spencer and one large sign for Tishaura Jones. None for the other 2 mayoral candidats.
Saw more Darlene Green signs than anything else. About a dozen yard signs and 3 or 4 large ones.
TBH, I actually gave this a legit thought and I cannot find one thing that made a difference in my life. I guess maybe closest is the bill that every other alderman co-sponsored and that Mayor Jones signed to ban permit-less open carry? That was a good bill.
Jones support was incredibly soft before the snowstorm. The poor response to ice and snow just laid bare concerns many already had about her leadership.
Baltimore Jack just loves to say the most assertive things with absolutely no data or evidence to support what he says. I lowkey respect that. Can only do that in a bubble or online.
Biggest issue for Jones is will be core group show up, it’s the people that wanted her to close the work house but are now mad that CJC is a sh*t show (bc the workhouse closed)
Rare good BJ article lays out where big donations are coming from:
To Spencer or her PAC:
-Telecom dude Jerry Kent ($25k)
-Post Holdings CEO ($10k)
-Former Centene Exec ($5k)
-Tegethoff Development owner ($5k)
-Wies Drywall owner ($5k)
-She also received donations from the regional president at Clayco, owners of New + Found, Koplar Properties, and multiple family members from the Taylor family.
Jones:
-Missouri History Museum leader
-Service Employees International Union
-Enterprise PAC ($7.5k)
-Laborers International Union ($50k)
-Former Major Brands Exec ($5k)
St. Louis Cardinals and Thompson Coburn both donated $2.6k to each both Spencer and Jones.
Auggie, you always say others are assertive or "whatever adverb or adjective makes me heard" while you dismiss every other persons assertions to the opposite, similar in fact to the Trump Administration. PerHaps Yuuw VVreely vant to have a German town with a Big Ool Berliner highrise designed by 23 year old alpaca males instead or Cordish.
Because at the end of the day, and you know because you live alone in your mom's basement, your just an a**hole. With no clue. I suggest a blind orgy or group therapy if you want to base your experience on feelings only.
Auggie, you always say others are assertive or "whatever adverb or adjective makes me heard" while you dismiss every other persons assertions to the opposite, similar in fact to the Trump Administration. PerHaps Yuuw VVreely vant to have a German town with a Big Ool Berliner highrise designed by 23 year old alpaca males instead or Cordish.
Because at the end of the day, and you know because you live alone in your mom's basement, your just an a**hole. With no clue. I suggest a blind orgy or group therapy if you want to base your experience on feelings only.
Baltimore Jack just loves to say the most assertive things with absolutely no data or evidence to support what he says. I lowkey respect that. Can only do that in a bubble or online.
Or in a post-fact world.
How is my comment any different than DB's one asserting that Jones was on track for an eaay win prior to the snowstorm?
I didn't see you press him for hard data to back that up.
First, it's well known on here that DB has more connections than most- certainly more than you or I. He has earned at least the benefit of the doubt.
Second, he said "amongst political observers" while you just said what you said. DB didn't say "Jones was cruising to a victory," he said " Amongst political observers, Jones was cruising to a victory."
Major difference in phrasing and citation. Now maybe you have knowledge similar to DB beyond anecdotal personal experiences, but you didn't say "according to X, Jones' support was soft."
I have none of those types of connections or knowledge, so I can't speak on what things looked like before the snowstorm.
We're a week away from an unusual election. There are no competitive alder races (and only seven this time instead of 14). The Comptroller race is raising and spending money like an alder race that no one seems to care about, and the mayoral race is just now starting to gain momentum. I expect turnout to be somewhere between 37,000 and 42,000 voters (votes will be # of voters x 1.56 due to approval)
A big part of this disengagement comes from the fallout of the last presidential campaign and, to some extent, COVID. National politics have become so divisive and exhausting that many people feel burnt out, making them less likely to pay attention to local elections. There’s a growing sense that individual votes don’t matter, especially when there aren’t any real competitive races or when local politics seem predetermined.
COVID also played a role in breaking voter engagement habits. During the pandemic, many grassroots organizations that helped mobilize voters either shut down, lost funding, or shifted their focus elsewhere. Without strong in-person outreach, voter participation dropped, and for many, that disengagement has stuck around.
On top of that, the structure of local elections has changed in ways that don’t necessarily encourage turnout. In the past, competitive alder races would draw people to the polls, which helped boost participation in other races on the ballot. With fewer contested races this time, there’s less excitement and even less reason for people to show up.
Unless something shifts dramatically in the next week, this election is shaping up to be one of the lowest-energy ones in recent memory. Without competitive races or a major issue to rally around, voter turnout will likely stay low. The mayoral race might still build some momentum, but overall, many people will likely sit this one out—either because they’re frustrated, burned out, or just don’t see the point.
To be fair, this administration helped to shut down the push to move elections to align with national. If you keep framing Spencers rise as some abberation, I think you're going to continue to be dissapointed
1. Spencer has been around and she's been doing the work. She has name recognition and shes made a lot of connections.
2. There's not a great deal of difference between Jones and Spencer, so in a low-morale anti-incumbent environment Spencer naturally has had a leg up as simply "something else"
3 The Post wants Spencer (just like last time) and spent the greater part of last year connecting the failures of SLDC to Jones. From my perspective this was done in a queasy racialized way(some thing never change for the Post), but nonetheless Jones refused to face that SLDC leadership was not up to snuff. By the end of last year Cara was likely going to win.
4. The ice storm. Bob Clark singlehandedly funded this ice storm(I'm no fan of bob's tantrum for not getting his industrail boxes) . A lucky break for Spencer that gave a platform to her platform. This has probably sealed the deal.
5. Business connections mean money and money buys attack adds, and this is gonna change the minds of some idiots. Business connection also legitimize. Not particularly fond of this neoliberal mindset, but here we are.
I mean you can argue points of merit, but for better or worse elections mostly run on vibes. I think the vibe is "who's next". In a way I think this is too bad because Jones could have used more room to cook. But, my own vibe I think is "ok lets see what you got" at the expense of "let her cook" and I have to imagine its the same for many others.
In retrospect I should have stated "in my opinion Jones supporter was incredibly soft prior to the snowstorm".
Just based on the lack of signage for her compared to 4 years ago and anecdotal from people I knew who were strong supporters of Mayor Jones in 2021 and either went soft or switched after 4 years.
Again, anecdotal but didn't hear from a single Spencer supporter in 2021 that was now for Jones.
