urbanSTL

I didn’t realize trying to get to the bottom of the discrepancy between the census estimates and the actual census is so politically fraught.

Yep, that's all you're doing.  My fault.

I hope your inane foray into this thread gave you the satisfaction you desired.

The average over the time period in those graphs is MO 1.0% and IL 1.1%. Not great for either, but hardly supports a sky-is-falling narrative.

Interesting, because I said “Illinois has problem” not “Illinois is facing an apocalyptic situation” but thanks for treating my position as if I had said the latter.

With respect to the GDP growth rates, 0.1% is almost is almost insignificant and when you consider that all Missouri needed do to exceed Illinois growth rate over the same period was match it in Gov’t spending, it looks even less significant.

Consider additionally that Illinois counts itself among the most important economic jurisdictions in the world (as it should), eeking out Missouri by 0.1% in average decade-long growth is a loss, not a win.

leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑

Jan 16, 2023

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jan 16, 2023

https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/r ... /projects/

https://insights.arcgis.com/#/view/2f02 ... 4de648f67c

Thanks for posting seriously. That second link...it's worse than I thought OMFG. I mean, all this never works out, sorry, jaded. But I'm rooting for it all.

I think skepticism, or at least caution, is the driving consideration for funding a bunch of little things rather than a few big things. This way policymakers can see what works and what doesn't and then allocate the next round of fund accordingly. 

Trepidation revisiting this thread after my drunken rant about my $643 Ameren Illinois bill a few days ago, the blowback doesn't seem that bad. I don't think anyone called me a fascist or a Nazi because I was super not happy about my $643 Ameren Illinois bill.

As far as Illinois, I was gone for a long time. Still in STL but dabbling in IL because the trauma has subsided.

Jane Jacobs Ghost comments were pretty devastating. I admit to having a bias against southern Illinois. I have no no idea what happens there, what people do there. An admitted bias. I was always in Chicago or even Peoria, Springfield, Champaign or Decatur (yes, all of them). There has always been a bias against anything south of all that. I'm guilty.

No way Carbondale and Chicago should be under the same management.

I know nothing of southern Illinois except driving through to New Orleans or elsewhere and that's where we build the prisons.

Maybe splitting things up is more agreeable

leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑

Jan 19, 2023

No way Carbondale and Chicago should be under the same management.
I know nothing of southern Illinois except driving through to New Orleans or elsewhere and that's where we build the prisons.

Maybe splitting things up is more agreeable

No, we can't split states up because there are differences between rural and urban areas. 

Yes Chicago and Carbondale are different places. Far western New York State is a world away from Manhattan. The UP of Michigan is vastly different from Detroit. 

Deal with it. 

Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑

Jan 19, 2023

leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑

Jan 19, 2023

No way Carbondale and Chicago should be under the same management.
I know nothing of southern Illinois except driving through to New Orleans or elsewhere and that's where we build the prisons.

Maybe splitting things up is more agreeable

No, we can't split states up because there are differences between rural and urban areas. 

Yes Chicago and Carbondale are different places. Far western New York State is a world away from Manhattan. The UP of Michigan is vastly different from Detroit. 

Deal with it. 

Dude , just because you feel you're cool and urban now doesn't mean you ever were.

^I don't care where you are pretending to move next. Good luck! 

^Thanks. I'll probably just assume he is all the time now based on his previous comment and react accordingly. 

TBH while I probably would not have reacted the way I did to any other poster I do get annoyed by the "x part of y state needs to secede!" talk on all sorts of forums. It won't happen. 

Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑

Jan 19, 2023

No, we can't split states up because there are differences between rural and urban areas. 

Yes Chicago and Carbondale are different places. Far western New York State is a world away from Manhattan. The UP of Michigan is vastly different from Detroit. 

Deal with it. 

Agreed that splitting up IL would be stupid. But an equitable redrawing of state or district boundaries is a good, albeit fanciful, idea.

States are in themselves silly creations and their lines were drawn based on even sillier ideas.

NY is bad comp. Upstate NY has 3 metros of more than 1 million people and Syracuse is also a lot bigger than anything in downstate IL.

One thing is that I am wary of the accuracy of any population estimates outside of the census based on past numbers being terribly wrong. Would also be wary of any numbers from 2020 on for various reasons. 

imperialmog wrote:One thing is that I am wary of the accuracy of any population estimates outside of the census based on past numbers being terribly wrong. Would also be wary of any numbers from 2020 on for various reasons. 

That’s my thought too. I am unsure of whether any methodologies have changed. Still, I would like to see it suggest growth and it’s worrying that it’s not.


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I get that they are concerning, but it just doesn't seem right. Like if these numbers were extrapolated for 10 years we'd be losing almost 25% of the City's population, which would be catastrophic and I don't detect that. I know it's hard to just eye-ball it but the rate of decline has been going down for 30 years, why would the City suddenly spiral into its worst decline since the 1970s between 2020-2022? If demand were dropping like a rock in such a way I don't think rents and home prices would be going up like they have been. 

I don't know if I trust these numbers either or if it even matters.

On a straight population list it doesn't look great to be right there with Fort Worth and Topeka or whatever but anybody with any brains knows the difference.

I think, if anything, the City losing people that need to be gone.

PeterXCV wrote:I get that they are concerning, but it just doesn't seem right. Like if these numbers were extrapolated for 10 years we'd be losing almost 25% of the City's population, which would be catastrophic and I don't detect that. I know it's hard to just eye-ball it but the rate of decline has been going down for 30 years, why would the City suddenly spiral into its worst decline since the 1970s between 2020-2022? If demand were dropping like a rock in such a way I don't think rents and home prices would be going up like they have been. 

It really would be a pretty shocking, disastrous increase in the rate of decline. I could see the poor service quality that the city provides (public safety, trash collection, general infrastructure) reaching some point of tipping point accelerating the decline a bit, but I also don’t think the rate suggested by the numbers would be justified by that.

At the end of the day, these estimates don’t look good and hopefully are quite off. Perhaps there’s some utility in them if they prompt us to adopt better policy solutions regardless.


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My point is that I think it's less " fear of crime" driven and more of a "housing deterioration" problem. Eventually, people have to go to the new crappy apartment complex in the County or St. Charles County or Houston or Dallas or Atlanta because it's literally no longer livable here, literally.

I’ve lost a lot of faith in the Census Bureau. They’re estimates were so far off from the nominal count in 2020 that I don’t know what to believe anymore