I'm curious, do you (talking to anyone) think that the May 2025 tornado had an impact on crime, and if so, was it positive or negative?
What crazy timing! I asked Claude yesterday afternoon to complete an analysis of homicides within the tornados path. I was impressed with it's mapping ability since I provided no inputs. I personally didn't care enough to fact check homicide mapping. Denis seems to have a better handle on the crime mapping, maybe he'll care enough.
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Here's StlToday's 2025 homicide map
https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/homi ... cker/2025/
And this year
https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/homi ... cker/2026/
https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/homi ... cker/2025/
And this year
https://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/homi ... cker/2026/
- 196
3D printed guns are now better than ever and easier to make
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol2qxZ2ejoQ&t=1s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol2qxZ2ejoQ&t=1s
What a coincidence! Thanks for sharing your’s/Claude’s findings. It does seem like the violence just shifted to adjacent neighborhoods, which is unfortunate, although it’s good to see the city-wide crime decline still happening.addxb2 wrote: ↑3:07 PM - Mar 19What crazy timing! I asked Claude yesterday afternoon to complete an analysis of homicides within the tornados path. I was impressed with it's mapping ability since I provided no inputs. I personally didn't care enough to fact check homicide mapping. Denis seems to have a better handle on the crime mapping, maybe he'll care enough.
- 929
How we continue to let N Tucker/N 13th St/N Florissant exists in the state it does as a city really baffles me…Could you imagine being a first time visitor getting off 70 there…
There was an unfortunate situation in that area once again in the middle of the day. We gotta do something about that area.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
There was an unfortunate situation in that area once again in the middle of the day. We gotta do something about that area.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A disappointing incident in an otherwise quiet month. SLMPD maintains its high solve rate.
- 2,059
Let's hope this is the first of many long homicide-less streaks this year. 
I know Cass is a long street, but I occasionally hit that gas station right there by 70. I should probably re-think that over 10-20 cents savings for gas.BarryGlick wrote: ↑10:02 PM - Mar 212 persons shot and killed Cass ave N city 3:30 pm 03/21/2026
- 9,581
This specific shooting involved the clerk executing someone who was already shot in the legs, unable to walk and their gun away from them. the clerk shot them twice in that position with stops inside the store in between
- 929
Rough weekend (particularly one night) of violent crime after we had a pretty quiet first few months (with the exception of one high profile one with the unfortunate situation that occurred at the Starbucks)
The incidents primarily occurred at gas stations this weekend (per usual)
Gas stations are the number one attractor of crime in this city (and in many cities)
It’s not just the wide roads that are dangerously for civilians, it is also the gas stations
We should think about that when we allow these gas stations to build anywhere they want. We have several roads in our city that have just been ruined by them and they are complete detractors on the neighborhoods. Otherwise safe neighborhoods like Soulard, Lafayette Square, Skinker Debaliviere/West End, CWE, etc are plagued by the crime that happens at these gas stations
We should pursue these gas stations that have these recurring incidents like we did the Shell downtown. Get these things shut down and turn it over to new owners to do something more positive for the city
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The incidents primarily occurred at gas stations this weekend (per usual)
Gas stations are the number one attractor of crime in this city (and in many cities)
It’s not just the wide roads that are dangerously for civilians, it is also the gas stations
We should think about that when we allow these gas stations to build anywhere they want. We have several roads in our city that have just been ruined by them and they are complete detractors on the neighborhoods. Otherwise safe neighborhoods like Soulard, Lafayette Square, Skinker Debaliviere/West End, CWE, etc are plagued by the crime that happens at these gas stations
We should pursue these gas stations that have these recurring incidents like we did the Shell downtown. Get these things shut down and turn it over to new owners to do something more positive for the city
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
- 959
Mapping Police Violence: For the First Time in Six Years, Police Violence Declined in 2025
https://campaignzero.org/research/mapping-police-violence-for-the-first-time-in-six-years-police-violence-declined-in-2025/
https://campaignzero.org/research/mapping-police-violence-for-the-first-time-in-six-years-police-violence-declined-in-2025/
Longer trend
https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/gov ... 14993.html
Kehoe signs bill that rolls back previous criminal justice reforms, will increase prison population.
The bill reinstates mandatory minimum sentences for all felony convictions, it reinstates sentences without the possibility of parole for certain crimes, and makes it easier for prosecutors to have juveniles tried as adults. The changes are projected to require the state to build another prison to handle the increase in prison population.
Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk
Kehoe signs bill that rolls back previous criminal justice reforms, will increase prison population.
The bill reinstates mandatory minimum sentences for all felony convictions, it reinstates sentences without the possibility of parole for certain crimes, and makes it easier for prosecutors to have juveniles tried as adults. The changes are projected to require the state to build another prison to handle the increase in prison population.
Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk
So I happened to be chatting with a crewmember who is staying here after serving on the inaugural Heathrow-STL flight. He told me that the tourism director assigned to them said not to take the Metrolink because it was too dangerous. UGH.
^ just sent that to Brad Dean at Explore St. Louis. Those who know Brad should do the same.
- 9,581
Likely some dolt that has never even ridden MetroLink. I travel constantly and find myself on public transit often. Our system is so safe (and clean) compared to peer cities its mind-boggling that this reputation persists throughout the region.
- 83
Man shot near The Dome at America's Center, 1 in custody
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/crime ... e5ed971e1a
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/crime ... e5ed971e1a
St. Louis isn't even mentioned in this article, but Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta and others are. A reminder that street takeovers are anything but unique to St. Louis (I pasted the entire article below)....
NYTimes:
What Are 'Teen Takeovers' and Why Are Police Struggling to Stop Them?
Across the country, police and city officials are trying to crack down on sometimes violent youth gatherings, but the teens themselves say they need some way to socialize and blow off steam
By Clyde McGradyEmma Schartz and Julie Bosman
As the school year draws to a close, the perennial worry about teenage misbehavior and how to keep youth occupied in the summer has a new name with ominous undertones: “teen takeovers.”
In Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, the nation’s capital and elsewhere, large, quickly organized gatherings of youths have popped up in downtowns, parks and leafy neighborhoods. They can be noisy, boisterous and at times violent, their impact often amplified on television, especially in conservative media outfits like Fox News.
And city leaders have begun to pay more attention.
“It has gotten worse when it comes to the bad behavior,” Larry Snelling, the superintendent of the Chicago Police Department, said in an interview. “Kids just start to fight, so they get increasingly more violent.”
Societal anxiety over juvenile delinquency is not new. A family court judge told The New York Times in 1952, “The reasons for children getting into trouble are the same yesterday as forever — revolt, rebellion, the need for self-expression, denied to them somehow, in a natural way.” At that time, authorities attributed the “extreme behavior of youth” to the Korean War, national and international insecurity, and a lack of mental health treatment.
Now it’s social media and the long tail of Covid-19, with its resulting Zoom-from-home generation. But what is undeniably new is the role that platforms like Instagram and TikTok play in the speed of organization and the scale of assembly. And the larger the gatherings, the better the chance that something can go wrong.
“Detroit teens do have a thing for pulling out guns while fighting,” said Malaysia McCline, 15, who recalled stumbling into a teen takeover last month after the Tigers’ opening day.
She and friends had noticed a growing crowd at the city’s waterfront that included a former classmate she’d lost touch with. It was fun, but by nightfall, some became rowdier, yelling and running. Police officers moved in.
“I was scared,” she said.
Law enforcement officials around the country are enjoying a period of good news. Crime overall in cities including Columbus, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles has dropped significantly in recent years. Homicides nationally are poised to hit their lowest rate in more than a century, data shows, a remarkable recovery from pandemic highs.
But the pandemic exacerbated a decline in the amount of time that teenagers spend going out and socializing, and socializing is a natural impulse, said Laurence Steinberg, a psychology professor who studies adolescent development. It is bound to burst out.
Just what should be considered a teen takeover is nebulous. On May 3 near Oklahoma City, at least 23 people were injured in a shooting at what police labeled an “unsanctioned” lakeside party. Like classic takeovers, it had been advertised on social media and drew a large crowd of teens and people in their early 20s.
Politics might be amplifying how adults are perceiving the threat. In a year when midterms loom and Republicans are facing stiff headwinds on the war in Iran, the economy, inflation and the cost of living, the issue of crime might be a bright spot for the party. A Pew Research poll last week found that by 17 percentage points, more Americans said they agreed with Republicans than Democrats on crime policy, a bigger edge than the party had two years ago.
Ahead of summer, some urban leaders have tried to make inroads with teens, hoping to channel their urge to socialize into more constructive activities that keep them safe and prevent bad actors from disturbing the peace.
After a pair of teen takeovers in Detroit last month, Mayor Mary Sheffield summoned the youthful organizers to her office. They hashed out ideas like late-night basketball at city recreational centers, new public space developments and a new youth advisory board.
“They wanted a place to get out, be free, have fun and hang out,” Ms. Sheffield said in an interview.
It’s not that easy, said Ashley Jennings, 17, who serves on the Youth Advisory Panel for the Detroit Board of Police Commissioners. It takes money and transportation to get to the suburbs, where teenagers can bowl or watch a movie and avoid the city’s 10 p.m. curfew. Teen takeovers, by contrast, are free and accessible.
A street scene in the Hyde Park neighborhood of Chicago with volunteers in reflective orange vests.
The panel provides Ms. Jennings with a platform to authorities that most teens don’t have.
“When somebody shuts you up so much, you have no choice but to think your voice is not important,” she said.
Louis Custard, another Detroit teenager, agreed. What adults call teen takeovers, he called breaking free of the constraints that social media, gangs and excessive policing impose on teen lives.
“What I see is a bunch of kids trying to escape from the modality of their regular day-to-day life,” said Mr. Custard, 16.
Some of the panic over teen takeovers has echoes in worries over “wilding” in the late 1980s and “superpredators” in the 1990s.
“There was a lot of dog whistling there about the fact that these are Black kids who are gathering together in these large groups, and we should be afraid of them,” Mr. Steinberg said.
Black and Latino youth gatherings are more likely to be assumed as criminal, said Kristin Henning, a Georgetown University law professor who specializes in juvenile justice. White children in skate parks in the 1980s and 1990s did not generate nearly the same level of surveillance and arrests as Black gatherings, she said.
That doesn’t mean concerns over rowdy teen gatherings are confined to white people or conservative media outlets. Small business owners and neighbors of all kinds are vexed.
“Every bar and restaurant, corner store or hamburger shop or pizza slice place, they want customers, and customers don’t come back when there are kids jumping on top of hoods of cars, running down the street, knocking people over, threatening people,” said Chuck Thies, a political consultant in Washington, D.C., who advised a former mayor, Vincent Gray.
In the nation’s capital, the issue has been made more urgent by the district’s Democratic mayoral primary in June, an economy sagging under the weight of Trump administration job cuts, and the threat of still more budget cuts by Congress.
Police are taking notice. Officers in Chicago monitor social media for what they call “teen trend” announcements, and receive tips from parents, community organizers and school officials when a takeover is posted.
They first try to stop it from happening, talking to teenagers, parents and principals. Superintendent Snelling estimated that the department has headed off “hundreds” of takeovers — in the heat of summer in Chicago, there can be several planned each day, he said.
For takeovers it doesn’t stop, the police department makes sure that officers are stationed at the scene.
“There’s zero tolerance for when we see crimes being committed,” Mr. Snelling said. “We will take someone into custody and charge them accordingly.”
In March, a takeover in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, near the University of Chicago, left a trail of property damage after teens stomped on car hoods and broke windshields. Two weeks later, parents and educators on the city’s South Side decided to organize a “parent takeover,” which drew more than 60 people who stood outside a coffee shop and monitored the area.
Trez V. Pugh III, the coffee shop owner, thinks the kids are just bored. “Some kids are just looking for attention, and they don’t realize there are repercussions, consequences for their actions,” he said.
All of this had brought back a fierce debate over curfews, in Detroit, Chicago and elsewhere. This week the District of Columbia Council voted 8 to 5 to give the mayor authority to declare 8 p.m. “curfew zones” to prohibit large teen gatherings in certain areas and require youth event programming whenever the mayor or police chief establishes such zones. The measure still needs approval from the mayor and Congress and likely wouldn’t be in effect at the beginning of summer.
Last summer, Mayor Brandon Johnson in Chicago vetoed a curfew measure passed by the City Council.
Even proponents say such curfews are at best a temporary solution. Teens are especially leery.
In Atlanta, Haile Irving, 17, and Devin Mitchell, 16, delivered a speech in March titled “Re-Imagining Third Spaces” at a conference for the city’s public school students. In front of school board members, a superintendent and aides for Mayor Andre Dickens, Ms. Irving and Mr. Mitchell argued that teenagers needed their own spaces, modeled after co-working spots downtown, to do homework and art projects, host charity events, or hold pop-up shops to sell goods and services.
The mayor’s chief of staff awarded the duo a $50,000 grant to help make the concept happen.
“The issue is having to deal with being seen as a criminal when you’re trying to access fun as a kid,” Ms. Irving said. “There are issues with safety when safety isn’t adequately built for you.”
NYTimes:
What Are 'Teen Takeovers' and Why Are Police Struggling to Stop Them?
Across the country, police and city officials are trying to crack down on sometimes violent youth gatherings, but the teens themselves say they need some way to socialize and blow off steam
By Clyde McGradyEmma Schartz and Julie Bosman
As the school year draws to a close, the perennial worry about teenage misbehavior and how to keep youth occupied in the summer has a new name with ominous undertones: “teen takeovers.”
In Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, the nation’s capital and elsewhere, large, quickly organized gatherings of youths have popped up in downtowns, parks and leafy neighborhoods. They can be noisy, boisterous and at times violent, their impact often amplified on television, especially in conservative media outfits like Fox News.
And city leaders have begun to pay more attention.
“It has gotten worse when it comes to the bad behavior,” Larry Snelling, the superintendent of the Chicago Police Department, said in an interview. “Kids just start to fight, so they get increasingly more violent.”
Societal anxiety over juvenile delinquency is not new. A family court judge told The New York Times in 1952, “The reasons for children getting into trouble are the same yesterday as forever — revolt, rebellion, the need for self-expression, denied to them somehow, in a natural way.” At that time, authorities attributed the “extreme behavior of youth” to the Korean War, national and international insecurity, and a lack of mental health treatment.
Now it’s social media and the long tail of Covid-19, with its resulting Zoom-from-home generation. But what is undeniably new is the role that platforms like Instagram and TikTok play in the speed of organization and the scale of assembly. And the larger the gatherings, the better the chance that something can go wrong.
“Detroit teens do have a thing for pulling out guns while fighting,” said Malaysia McCline, 15, who recalled stumbling into a teen takeover last month after the Tigers’ opening day.
She and friends had noticed a growing crowd at the city’s waterfront that included a former classmate she’d lost touch with. It was fun, but by nightfall, some became rowdier, yelling and running. Police officers moved in.
“I was scared,” she said.
Law enforcement officials around the country are enjoying a period of good news. Crime overall in cities including Columbus, Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles has dropped significantly in recent years. Homicides nationally are poised to hit their lowest rate in more than a century, data shows, a remarkable recovery from pandemic highs.
But the pandemic exacerbated a decline in the amount of time that teenagers spend going out and socializing, and socializing is a natural impulse, said Laurence Steinberg, a psychology professor who studies adolescent development. It is bound to burst out.
Just what should be considered a teen takeover is nebulous. On May 3 near Oklahoma City, at least 23 people were injured in a shooting at what police labeled an “unsanctioned” lakeside party. Like classic takeovers, it had been advertised on social media and drew a large crowd of teens and people in their early 20s.
Politics might be amplifying how adults are perceiving the threat. In a year when midterms loom and Republicans are facing stiff headwinds on the war in Iran, the economy, inflation and the cost of living, the issue of crime might be a bright spot for the party. A Pew Research poll last week found that by 17 percentage points, more Americans said they agreed with Republicans than Democrats on crime policy, a bigger edge than the party had two years ago.
Ahead of summer, some urban leaders have tried to make inroads with teens, hoping to channel their urge to socialize into more constructive activities that keep them safe and prevent bad actors from disturbing the peace.
After a pair of teen takeovers in Detroit last month, Mayor Mary Sheffield summoned the youthful organizers to her office. They hashed out ideas like late-night basketball at city recreational centers, new public space developments and a new youth advisory board.
“They wanted a place to get out, be free, have fun and hang out,” Ms. Sheffield said in an interview.
It’s not that easy, said Ashley Jennings, 17, who serves on the Youth Advisory Panel for the Detroit Board of Police Commissioners. It takes money and transportation to get to the suburbs, where teenagers can bowl or watch a movie and avoid the city’s 10 p.m. curfew. Teen takeovers, by contrast, are free and accessible.
A street scene in the Hyde Park neighborhood of Chicago with volunteers in reflective orange vests.
The panel provides Ms. Jennings with a platform to authorities that most teens don’t have.
“When somebody shuts you up so much, you have no choice but to think your voice is not important,” she said.
Louis Custard, another Detroit teenager, agreed. What adults call teen takeovers, he called breaking free of the constraints that social media, gangs and excessive policing impose on teen lives.
“What I see is a bunch of kids trying to escape from the modality of their regular day-to-day life,” said Mr. Custard, 16.
Some of the panic over teen takeovers has echoes in worries over “wilding” in the late 1980s and “superpredators” in the 1990s.
“There was a lot of dog whistling there about the fact that these are Black kids who are gathering together in these large groups, and we should be afraid of them,” Mr. Steinberg said.
Black and Latino youth gatherings are more likely to be assumed as criminal, said Kristin Henning, a Georgetown University law professor who specializes in juvenile justice. White children in skate parks in the 1980s and 1990s did not generate nearly the same level of surveillance and arrests as Black gatherings, she said.
That doesn’t mean concerns over rowdy teen gatherings are confined to white people or conservative media outlets. Small business owners and neighbors of all kinds are vexed.
“Every bar and restaurant, corner store or hamburger shop or pizza slice place, they want customers, and customers don’t come back when there are kids jumping on top of hoods of cars, running down the street, knocking people over, threatening people,” said Chuck Thies, a political consultant in Washington, D.C., who advised a former mayor, Vincent Gray.
In the nation’s capital, the issue has been made more urgent by the district’s Democratic mayoral primary in June, an economy sagging under the weight of Trump administration job cuts, and the threat of still more budget cuts by Congress.
Police are taking notice. Officers in Chicago monitor social media for what they call “teen trend” announcements, and receive tips from parents, community organizers and school officials when a takeover is posted.
They first try to stop it from happening, talking to teenagers, parents and principals. Superintendent Snelling estimated that the department has headed off “hundreds” of takeovers — in the heat of summer in Chicago, there can be several planned each day, he said.
For takeovers it doesn’t stop, the police department makes sure that officers are stationed at the scene.
“There’s zero tolerance for when we see crimes being committed,” Mr. Snelling said. “We will take someone into custody and charge them accordingly.”
In March, a takeover in Chicago’s Hyde Park neighborhood, near the University of Chicago, left a trail of property damage after teens stomped on car hoods and broke windshields. Two weeks later, parents and educators on the city’s South Side decided to organize a “parent takeover,” which drew more than 60 people who stood outside a coffee shop and monitored the area.
Trez V. Pugh III, the coffee shop owner, thinks the kids are just bored. “Some kids are just looking for attention, and they don’t realize there are repercussions, consequences for their actions,” he said.
All of this had brought back a fierce debate over curfews, in Detroit, Chicago and elsewhere. This week the District of Columbia Council voted 8 to 5 to give the mayor authority to declare 8 p.m. “curfew zones” to prohibit large teen gatherings in certain areas and require youth event programming whenever the mayor or police chief establishes such zones. The measure still needs approval from the mayor and Congress and likely wouldn’t be in effect at the beginning of summer.
Last summer, Mayor Brandon Johnson in Chicago vetoed a curfew measure passed by the City Council.
Even proponents say such curfews are at best a temporary solution. Teens are especially leery.
In Atlanta, Haile Irving, 17, and Devin Mitchell, 16, delivered a speech in March titled “Re-Imagining Third Spaces” at a conference for the city’s public school students. In front of school board members, a superintendent and aides for Mayor Andre Dickens, Ms. Irving and Mr. Mitchell argued that teenagers needed their own spaces, modeled after co-working spots downtown, to do homework and art projects, host charity events, or hold pop-up shops to sell goods and services.
The mayor’s chief of staff awarded the duo a $50,000 grant to help make the concept happen.
“The issue is having to deal with being seen as a criminal when you’re trying to access fun as a kid,” Ms. Irving said. “There are issues with safety when safety isn’t adequately built for you.”
- 3,434
I asked Google Gemini AI: At the full metro area level, how do St. Louis metro and Nashville metro area crime rates compare? It replied:
Comparing St. Louis and Nashville at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level is essential for an accurate picture, as city-limit data is often skewed by the small geographic size of St. Louis City (62 sq. mi.) compared to Nashville's consolidated city-county (approx. 500 sq. mi.).
When you zoom out to the full metro areas, the crime rates between the two are much more similar than "inner city" headlines suggest.
Metro Area Comparison (Estimates for 2024–2025)
Key Takeaways
I replied: Yes. It came back with this:
When comparing St. Louis and Nashville to other major Midwestern and "Upper South" hubs like Indianapolis and Kansas City, a clear pattern emerges: the metropolitan area (MSA) numbers are remarkably consistent across the board.
While "City of St. Louis" or "Kansas City, MO" statistics often make national headlines for high crime, the full metro areas—which include their vast suburban rings—tell a different story.
Metro Area Crime Rate Comparison (Estimates for 2024–2025)
Regional Insights
If you are moving or traveling between these four regions, your statistical risk is nearly the same at the metro level. The primary difference is geographic concentration: in St. Louis and Kansas City, crime is heavily concentrated in specific urban neighborhoods, whereas in Indianapolis and Nashville, it is more "spread out" across the larger consolidated city limits.
I was somewhat surprised. So I asked: What was your source for this data? Google Gemini AI replied:
The data provided for these comparisons is synthesized from several key primary and secondary crime reporting sources. Because 2025 is the current or very recent year, the numbers are based on "preliminary year-end" and "mid-year" updates rather than the finalized, consolidated FBI report (which typically lags by a year).
The primary sources include:
To get the figures I shared, I cross-reference the City-level data (often high-crime) with the County-level data for the surrounding suburban areas. For example:
Comparing St. Louis and Nashville at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level is essential for an accurate picture, as city-limit data is often skewed by the small geographic size of St. Louis City (62 sq. mi.) compared to Nashville's consolidated city-county (approx. 500 sq. mi.).
When you zoom out to the full metro areas, the crime rates between the two are much more similar than "inner city" headlines suggest.
Metro Area Comparison (Estimates for 2024–2025)
| Metric | St. Louis Metro (MSA) | Nashville Metro (MSA) |
| Violent Crime Rate | ~400–450 per 100k | ~450–500 per 100k |
| Property Crime Rate | ~2,100–2,300 per 100k | ~2,200–2,400 per 100k |
| Homicide Rate (Metro) | ~12–15 per 100k | ~10–12 per 100k |
- The "City vs. Metro" Gap: In St. Louis, the violent crime rate within city limits can exceed 2,000 per 100,000 residents, but because the metro area includes large, low-crime suburban counties (like St. Charles and West St. Louis County), the overall MSA rate drops by nearly 80%.
- Nashville's Consistent Profile: Because Nashville-Davidson is a consolidated government, its "city" numbers already include many suburban-style neighborhoods. Consequently, there is much less of a "shock" when moving from Nashville's city data to its metro data.
- Current Trends: As of 2025, St. Louis reported a 22% drop in homicides, one of the most significant declines in a decade. Nashville has seen more stable but slightly higher property crime rates, specifically in larceny-theft.
- Apples-to-Apples: When comparing the "outer 80%" of both metros (the suburban rings), crime rates are statistically near-identical. The primary difference remains the concentration of crime in the urban core, which is geographically smaller and more densely reported in St. Louis.
I replied: Yes. It came back with this:
When comparing St. Louis and Nashville to other major Midwestern and "Upper South" hubs like Indianapolis and Kansas City, a clear pattern emerges: the metropolitan area (MSA) numbers are remarkably consistent across the board.
While "City of St. Louis" or "Kansas City, MO" statistics often make national headlines for high crime, the full metro areas—which include their vast suburban rings—tell a different story.
Metro Area Crime Rate Comparison (Estimates for 2024–2025)
| Metropolitan Area (MSA) | Violent Crime Rate (per 100k) | Property Crime Rate (per 100k) | Homicide Rate (per 100k) |
| St. Louis, MO-IL | ~400–450 | ~2,100–2,300 | ~12–15 |
| Nashville, TN | ~450–500 | ~2,200–2,400 | ~10–12 |
| Indianapolis, IN | ~480–530 | ~2,300–2,500 | ~11–14 |
| Kansas City, MO-KS | ~500–550 | ~2,800–3,100 | ~14–17 |
- Kansas City’s Property Crime: Kansas City currently has the highest property crime rate of the four. This was significantly driven in 2024 and 2025 by a massive surge in motor vehicle thefts, largely targeting specific Kia and Hyundai models.
- Indianapolis Stability: Indianapolis tracks very closely to Nashville. Both cities have consolidated city-county governments (Unigov for Indy, Metro for Nashville), which means their "city" numbers are naturally more diluted by suburban areas compared to the "split" system in St. Louis.
- The 2025 "Cooling" Trend: Across all four metros, violent crime rates have been trending downward since their peaks in 2021. St. Louis, in particular, saw one of the sharpest drops in homicides (over 20%) during the 2024–2025 period.
- Nashville's High Larceny: Despite having a lower homicide rate than St. Louis or Kansas City, Nashville ranks high nationally for larceny-theft, which keeps its overall property crime rate elevated.
If you are moving or traveling between these four regions, your statistical risk is nearly the same at the metro level. The primary difference is geographic concentration: in St. Louis and Kansas City, crime is heavily concentrated in specific urban neighborhoods, whereas in Indianapolis and Nashville, it is more "spread out" across the larger consolidated city limits.
I was somewhat surprised. So I asked: What was your source for this data? Google Gemini AI replied:
The data provided for these comparisons is synthesized from several key primary and secondary crime reporting sources. Because 2025 is the current or very recent year, the numbers are based on "preliminary year-end" and "mid-year" updates rather than the finalized, consolidated FBI report (which typically lags by a year).
The primary sources include:
-
The FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/resources/reports/UCR%20Summary%20of%20Reported%20Crimes%20in%20the%20Nation%202024.pdf This is the gold standard for historical data. The 2024–2025 estimates use the FBI's "Summary of Reported Crimes in the Nation" and quarterly trend reports.
- The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ): Their "Crime Trends in U.S. Cities" updates provide the most current real-time data for 2025. This source is particularly useful for tracking the specific "cooling trends" and the 20%+ drops in homicides seen in cities like St. Louis.
- The Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA): They release quarterly violent crime surveys directly from the police departments of major metros like Nashville (Metro Nashville PD) and Indianapolis (IMPD).
- SafeHome.org Crime Reports: This source is excellent for comparative rankings (like the "Top 3 Mid-Sized Cities") and for breaking down specific property crime surges, such as the motor vehicle theft issues in Kansas City.
To get the figures I shared, I cross-reference the City-level data (often high-crime) with the County-level data for the surrounding suburban areas. For example:
- St. Louis MSA: Combines St. Louis City with St. Louis County, St. Charles County, etc.
- Nashville MSA: Combines Davidson County with Rutherford, Williamson, and Sumner counties.