The sky continues to not fall
Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The sky continues to not fall
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
- 977
Crime is way down all across the country. With some exceptions, crime is generally down at a higher rate in places that started with higher crime rates (like St Louis). This makes sense to me statistically.soulardx wrote:Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The sky continues to not fall
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
The question is what’s driving this? I don’t think you could point to anything unique happening in St Louis.
Crime is up in Kansas City, currently the only city in the country with a state run police department and has been rising over the last few years. That's the greater point.soulardx wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The sky continues to not fall
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
My bet would be because of covid. 2019 had 16.4k murders and 19.3k in 2023. However, data for 2023 is looking like it'll be in the 15k range, which is below pre-covid.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025Crime is way down all across the country. With some exceptions, crime is generally down at a higher rate in places that started with higher crime rates (like St Louis). This makes sense to me statistically.soulardx wrote:Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The sky continues to not fall
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
The question is what’s driving this? I don’t think you could point to anything unique happening in St Louis.
I would also bet that it's in part because of violence prevention efforts taken by cities in the wake of the 2020 social justice protests. One example I know off the top of my head is Camden, New Jersey, who saw massive crime declines after they began funding a violence prevention program.
- 977
I don’t think there’s really much of a connection between KC’s moderate rise in crime rates over the past couple years and their police being run by the state.Auggie wrote:Crime is up in Kansas City, currently the only city in the country with a state run police department and has been rising over the last few years. That's the greater point.soulardx wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The sky continues to not fall
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
I don’t believe KC had the same huge spike in crime during COVID that STL saw, so their increases aren’t off an inflated base of crime like in STL.
Plus I don’t see strong evidence that good or bad policing is a primary driver in the major decline in crime in St Louis and nationwide.
Luckily that's not my point or DB's point. The point is that state control does not cause crime to decline. The entire argument for more police or state control is that there's causation for the two to correlate when there just isn't. There's not even correlation.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025I don’t think there’s really much of a connection between KC’s moderate rise in crime rates over the past couple years and their police being run by the state.Auggie wrote:Crime is up in Kansas City, currently the only city in the country with a state run police department and has been rising over the last few years. That's the greater point.soulardx wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025
Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
I don’t believe KC had the same huge spike in crime during COVID that STL saw, so their increases aren’t off an inflated base of crime like in STL.
Plus I don’t see strong evidence that good or bad policing is a primary driver in the major decline in crime in St Louis and nationwide.
- 1,797
The reason crime is down is because the most criminal age group (18-35) is now Gen Z. Gen Z is a small generation (much smaller than the millennials) and they spend all of their time on their phones. They don’t particularly like in-person human interaction.
- 977
Oh yeah. I agree it’s not going to cause a decrease in crime, unless there is some major disfunction within a locally run PD.Auggie wrote:Luckily that's not my point or DB's point. The point is that state control does not cause crime to decline. The entire argument for more police or state control is that there's causation for the two to correlate when there just isn't. There's not even correlation.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025I don’t think there’s really much of a connection between KC’s moderate rise in crime rates over the past couple years and their police being run by the state.Auggie wrote: Crime is up in Kansas City, currently the only city in the country with a state run police department and has been rising over the last few years. That's the greater point.
I don’t believe KC had the same huge spike in crime during COVID that STL saw, so their increases aren’t off an inflated base of crime like in STL.
Plus I don’t see strong evidence that good or bad policing is a primary driver in the major decline in crime in St Louis and nationwide.
Not sure I agree with this. Talk to any high school teacher and they'll tell you social media makes fighting/conflict/drama 10x more likely at and/or after schoolJaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The reason crime is down is because the most criminal age group (18-35) is now Gen Z. Gen Z is a small generation (much smaller than the millennials) and they spend all of their time on their phones. They don’t particularly like in-person human interaction.
that last point is also my own. the PD here is largely the same in any comp city so we can't point to anything the local politicians or cops have done.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025Crime is way down all across the country. With some exceptions, crime is generally down at a higher rate in places that started with higher crime rates (like St Louis). This makes sense to me statistically.soulardx wrote:Denis, I can't find it right now (when I want it...LOL), but earlier in the week I read a tweet that murders are down substantially in other cities like Baltimore, Memphis, NO, Cinci, Pit, etc. Peer cities. This is a nationwide trend.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The sky continues to not fall
Are murders down here at a higher/lower rate? Seems like some data you could gather.
And, to beat this dead horse, are murders up in the county, somewhat offsetting the lower rate in the city.
The question is what’s driving this? I don’t think you could point to anything unique happening in St Louis.
- 1,797
You can’t disagree about the relative sizes of the millennial and gen z generations. It’s fact that there are way more millennials.jtlq53 wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025Not sure I agree with this. Talk to any high school teacher and they'll tell you social media makes fighting/conflict/drama 10x more likely at and/or after schoolJaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑Jun 05, 2025The reason crime is down is because the most criminal age group (18-35) is now Gen Z. Gen Z is a small generation (much smaller than the millennials) and they spend all of their time on their phones. They don’t particularly like in-person human interaction.
High schoolers are mostly not in the 18-35 cohort.
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... tower.html
Bank of America Plaza at 800 Market St. to be foreclosed on and sold.
Over the last 3 years, it has seen its occupancy plummet from 83% in 2022 to 48% today. It has been in receivership since January 2024.
Currently, it is appraised at $16.2 million.
It's super obvious at night that basically all of the upper floors are vacant. I wonder what a future owner may look into doing about filling the space and how the city might help. 380k sq ft of space is not going to be easy to fill. I wonder if this building could be partially converted into a hotel or apartments, or if that's not feasible.
This one and 1010 Market are the two major office buildings I'm most worried about right now. Maybe Bob Clark can come in and save the day.
Bank of America Plaza at 800 Market St. to be foreclosed on and sold.
Over the last 3 years, it has seen its occupancy plummet from 83% in 2022 to 48% today. It has been in receivership since January 2024.
Currently, it is appraised at $16.2 million.
It's super obvious at night that basically all of the upper floors are vacant. I wonder what a future owner may look into doing about filling the space and how the city might help. 380k sq ft of space is not going to be easy to fill. I wonder if this building could be partially converted into a hotel or apartments, or if that's not feasible.
This one and 1010 Market are the two major office buildings I'm most worried about right now. Maybe Bob Clark can come in and save the day.
- 2,631
Ii hope that one day this building can be finished with the intended connecting tower on the 900 block of Market. Obviously office would be a non-starter, but a fully integrated hotel tower would make sense here and along with refurbishment of the original building it could go a long way towards making it more marketable.
- 1,797
Why has the occupancy fallen so far? PWC moved to BPV but have there been any other departures? Brown and James is rumored and I know BofA moved relationship managers to Clayton but does that explain the 50% drop?
- 2,419
I don't know how many massive downtown buildings St. Louis can realistically convert into residential and hotel all at once.
It seems like whenever you think you've solved one problem, another pops up.
It seems like whenever you think you've solved one problem, another pops up.
We are hopeful whoever the new owner ends up being will be creative and have vision. This complex REALLY is fantastic. The bones for a truly dynamic mixed-use asset are here. There's a lot of opportunity for neighborhood interactivity, if the desire to invest is there.RockChalkSTL wrote: ↑Jun 12, 2025I don't know how many massive downtown buildings St. Louis can realistically convert into residential and hotel all at once.
It seems like whenever you think you've solved one problem, another pops up.
- 1,797
Thank you for the insight. It’s crime and bad vibes that make the headlines at the BJ, but it seems like tenants just want smaller, higher amenity, spaces post-Covid and DT doesn’t offer that as well as Clayton does. I mean c’mon, the Clayton office buildings are dinky.SRQ2STL wrote: ↑Jun 12, 2025Simon Law moved to the Highlands recently. So that didn't help. But actually, the biggest factor in the drop in occupancy was BOA moving part of their operations to the Centene Tower. BOA is still here. But they drastically reduced their space. They went from occupying like 60% of space to less than 20%. They were the multi-floor tenant in the tower portion, with basement and drive-through facilities. Now they're limited to leasable floor space only. All the others occupy a single floor or are sharing floorplates with other tenants. Anders now has the largest space/presence here, but they occupy the whole 3-story podium portion of the complex...which I lovingly refer to as "the convention center mall". haha It looks like it could have been a mall at one point, with Convention center aesthetic. :pJaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑Jun 12, 2025Why has the occupancy fallen so far? PWC moved to BPV but have there been any other departures? Brown and James is rumored and I know BofA moved relationship managers to Clayton but does that explain the 50% drop?
The sudden drop was BOA downsizing. Plain and simple.
This is probably a dumb idea--apologies, I'm not a developer--but during my time living downtown I always thought it could use a mixed-use sports facility, like a Downtown Vetta or All-American, for all the resident young professionals still trying to fulfill their athlete dreams. Now that I'm a fully washed up middle-aged middle manager I've been disabused of those fantasies, but I'm sure there are plenty of downtown residents still chasing the glory.SRQ2STL wrote: ↑Jun 12, 2025We are hopeful whoever the new owner ends up being will be creative and have vision. This complex REALLY is fantastic. The bones for a truly dynamic mixed-use asset are here. There's a lot of opportunity for neighborhood interactivity, if the desire to invest is there.RockChalkSTL wrote: ↑Jun 12, 2025I don't know how many massive downtown buildings St. Louis can realistically convert into residential and hotel all at once.
It seems like whenever you think you've solved one problem, another pops up.
Could something like that occupy a floor or two in a (former) office high-rise? Or would building design (plating? again, not a developer) preclude it from making economic sense?
- 9,561
It would not surprise me to see Peabody depart its current building despite a new long term lease it signed in 2022.