urbanSTL

July All Employees: Total Nonfarm. Small drop but well within bounds of adjustment next month and still about 2% growth rate YoY. 

I see total non-farm in July 2023 at 1424.4 and growth at 2.3%
St. Louis : Mountain–Plains Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Rick Prieto wrote:I see total non-farm in July 2023 at 1424.4 and growth at 2.3%
St. Louis : Mountain–Plains Information Office : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

Same data, different adjustments. You’re referencing “not seasonally adjusted” and the data above is referencing “seasonally adjusted”.

Here is what they look like on the same graph.

Are these numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics?

Seasonally adjusted not yet release but non-seasonally adjusted YoY is still showing green.

St. Louis: +36.6k, 2.7%
Kansas City: +19.5k, 1.7%
Indianapolis +30.5k, 2.6%

I’ll share my updated table when data is released.

If those end up being close to the adjusted St. Louis' totals, we should rank very well on the next list.  

August Seasonally Adjusted Release. 
First, July was adjusted upward, bringing the July rank from 15/50 to 13/50.

As expected based on non-seasonally adjusted numbers above... August was even better! 32,800 more employees than August 2023, representing a 2.3% YoY increase. St. Louis is back to it's previous ranking high of 7 out of 50 for annual employment growth. St. Louis is doing pretty damn well... at least according to this metric 

It appears that our foreign born population and workforce are growing in lockstep. Good times.

I made two updates to my sheet. First, switched to not seasonally adjusted and changed how to define top 50 MSAs from employment to population. This led to the removal of New Orleans (#56) and addition of Fresno (#49) in 2020 census. 

Updated August. 

Wow, Chicago’s job market has contracted. I know they’ve been hanging around the bottom 10-15 of this list since addxb2 started posting these updates, but for a global, alpha, city to be experiencing a contracting job market amid one of the best eras for workers in memory, is troubling to say the least.

Chicago should be slaying it rn.

If BLS is to be believed, St. Louis is having it's best year in at least 30 years economically. August 2024 is the lowest St. Louis has ranked out of 50 since the measure was created.

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Oct 05, 2024

Wow, Chicago’s job market has contracted. I know they’ve been hanging around the bottom 10-15 of this list since addxb2 started posting these updates, but for a global, alpha, city to be experiencing a contracting job market amid one of the best eras for workers in memory, is troubling to say the least.

Chicago should be slaying it rn.

I lived in Chicago for a time recently and still spend a lot of time there for work. Their vibrancy is basically surviving off tourism. Prices keep rising and they are no longer the corporate center they used to be. Their infrastructure is strong but their economy has posted less even volume growth (not just percentage) than other midwest cities. Posted a BILLION dollar budget deficit just this year. The numbers look bad for them but the perception continues to be pretty positive amongst young people. I wish StL could get the social media and young people perception they have bc our numbers actually look strong. We are outpacing many fast growing metros in the job market.

Numbers say the “renaissance” is upon us. Will the perception catch up?

Brickline, transit expansion and some major downtown projects done by 2030? I think it does.

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Oct 05, 2024

I made two updates to my sheet. First, switched to not seasonally adjusted and changed how to define top 50 MSAs from employment to population. This led to the removal of New Orleans (#56) and addition of Fresno (#49) in 2020 census. 

Updated August. 

August_MSA_employment.jpg

I'm happy for these numbers but they don't align with the population loss of the metropolitan area!

Rick Prieto wrote: ↑

Oct 05, 2024

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Oct 05, 2024

I made two updates to my sheet. First, switched to not seasonally adjusted and changed how to define top 50 MSAs from employment to population. This led to the removal of New Orleans (#56) and addition of Fresno (#49) in 2020 census. 

Updated August. 

August_MSA_employment.jpg

I'm happy for these numbers but they don't align with the population loss of the metropolitan area!

It's almost like the population loss for the metro area is wrong.

^ & ^^,  the other reality is the available labor force is pretty much spoken for now and two things happen going forward, region starts attracting people and or it labor stats pretty much levels off & stalls.    You could probably make the same argument on Indy's strong labor market whereas Nashville just has the national mojo that is attracting people just like Austin had for a while.

Like to assume St. Louis is in a position to start attracting people to the region.  And who knows as the avenue or reality maybe is Chicago area.,  Chicago rough ride might get rougher when you got two strong labor markets and affordable in St. Louis & Indy.  More importantly within driving distance to family connections.  Not talking young hip folks but immigrants and old(er) farts like me.  

The Metro is NOT losing population. It has been slow but I don't think it is correct.

I know of 3 people (1 from Mississippi, 1 from LA, one from Tucson) that have relocated to the city (city) in the past 9 months.

If the jobs and immigration numbers are correct, you gotta assume that eventually the St. Louis metro will start growing again. Probably not Texas or Florida numbers, but I could see St. Louis keeping up with Indianapolis, Columbus, and Kansas City numbers.

Don't forget Pittsburgh! Nice numbers out there too. Bright future for that town I think

I'm talking poaching form Chicago area and biz journal opinion piece talking Canada.   Behind paywall so not sure where the argument for St. Louis over say a Nashville or a Miami when it comes to someone heading south from Canada.   Assume once your talking a plane flight away from home or family you might as well expand the search as someone who is moving.  At least, that is how I would look at it if wanting to move somewhere.

 https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/new ... 9#cxrecs_s

Biz journal piece slightly incoherent.

Maybe it’s time to look to a country with a similar culture, a population the size of California, and more challenges than most people realize, writes Raj Tut.
tampatra via Getty Images
By Raj Tut
Oct 3, 2024

We all know St. Louis faces challenges with population growth — even compared to other Midwestern cities. Instead of dwelling on what we lack, I started thinking about how my own journey could highlight an opportunity for our region. Maybe it’s time to look to a country with a similar culture, a population the size of California, and more challenges than most people realize.
As a "reformed Canuck," I truly believe St. Louis is the best-kept secret in the U.S. — and better than any place in Canada. Fun fact, if the St. Louis metro area were in Canada, it would be the third-largest city there. But unlike Canadian cities, we don’t face the same overwhelming challenges that make it hard for people to thrive. Having moved here 11 years ago, I know this city has enormous potential, and it’s time to market St. Louis to Canadians facing serious challenges in the Great White North.

Canada isn’t the utopia many in the U.S. think it is. It’s facing pressures, especially with housing, health care, and high immigration rates.





In Toronto, single-family homes have turned into rooming houses, and renting a basement apartment is common, Raj Tut writes.
davidfillion | Getty Images
Housing affordability is a crisis in Canadian cities. Take Toronto, where single-family homes have turned into rooming houses, and renting a basement apartment is common — something unheard of in St. Louis. In contrast, St. Louis is one of the most affordable major cities in America. Many Canadians, especially young professionals, feel squeezed out of any chance to own a home.
It’s not just housing. Canada’s unemployment rate hit 5.7% in August 2024. Stagnant wages, rising inflation, and higher taxes are making it tougher for Canadians to maintain a decent quality of life. Meanwhile, in the U.S., job growth remains steady, and wages are rising, outpacing inflation in many sectors.
St. Louis offers exactly what Canadians need: affordability, opportunity, and quality of life. With over 110 parks — including Forest Park, which is larger than New York City's Central Park — St. Louis has green spaces that even Canadians would envy. We also have cultural gems like the Saint Louis Art Museum, the Missouri Botanical Garden, and the world-class St. Louis Zoo, all without the high costs or overcrowding.

Our infrastructure is ready to handle growth. We have three major rivers, five interstate highways, five airports, and six Class I railroads.
And let’s address the elephant in the room: crime. Yes, crime exists, but the broader St. Louis metro area has a lower violent crime rate per capita than many Canadian cities. Most of our region is made up of safe, vibrant communities with a fantastic quality of life.



Raj Tut is the CEO of Storyboard Living, an apartment community developer based in Fairview Heights. He moved to the St. Louis-area 11 years ago from Canada.
Storyboard Living
When I moved to St. Louis 11 years ago, I took a leap of faith, and it turned out to be the best decision I ever made. I’ve built a successful company here and brought three other families along. There are plenty more Canadians who would make the move if the immigration process were easier to understand. Every week, I hear from Canadians who want to move to the U.S. but don’t know where to start. St. Louis can be that starting point — the welcoming, affordable, opportunity-rich city they’re looking for, one that can also guide them through the immigration process.
Canada has many educated, skilled, and ready young people who share cultural and educational similarities with Americans. The most talented Canadians often consider relocating to the U.S., given the differences in economic systems and incentives.

What if St. Louis became the go-to city for Canadians seeking a brighter future? We could partner with local law firms, PR firms, employers, and civic organizations to streamline the immigration process. With a bit of effort, we can make it easier for skilled Canadians to see St. Louis as the best place to launch their American dream.



Having moved to the St. Louis area 11 years ago, Raj Tut says he knows "this city has enormous potential, and it’s time to market St. Louis to Canadians facing serious challenges in the Great White North."
David Garrison | Getty Images
St. Louis recently experienced a 23.2% year-over-year increase in its foreign-born population, ranking first among the nation’s top 30 metro areas, according to Saint Louis University demographer Ness Sandoval. The region also ranked seventh in job growth over a 12-month period.
By actively courting Canadian talent, we can accelerate this momentum. More people mean more investment, more ideas, and more opportunities to build and rebuild neighborhoods that will enrich the lives of everyone who calls St. Louis home.
St. Louis has a chance to do something truly transformative, but we need to act now. Canadians are ready for a change, and we have everything they’re looking for. Let’s be proactive, let’s be welcoming, and let’s become the city that helps them build a new life — while building a better future for St. Louis in the process.
This is our moment, St. Louis. Let’s seize it.


Raj Tut is the CEO of Storyboard Living, an apartment community developer based in Fairview Heights.

September Not Seasonally Adjusted Release. 
First, August was adjusted downward slightly, bringing the August rank from 4/50 to 5/50.

September saw a slow down but still top 10 and still outpacing almost all peers by a mile or two. 

Stats like this (and the recent housing market raking) sure make it hard not to be optimistic on our future.  

It is shocking to see Minneapolis, Columbus so low (Denver too).  I wonder if this is the result of their COL increasing and reducing demand to be there?

Are those shaded in blue intended to represent our peers?  Midwest peers?

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Oct 23, 2024

September Not Seasonally Adjusted Release. 
First, August was adjusted downward slightly, bringing the August rank from 4/50 to 5/50.

September saw a slow down but still top 10 and still outpacing almost all peers by a mile or two. September_MSA_employment.jpg

Looks like New Orleans fell off the list