We had one in 2020 that we turned into Biden admin policies after the election

We are 19 days away, right now id put Trump as a slight favorite to win 272-266

Wisconsin becomes the tipping point state, not PA as many expected.    One thing that Harris does have going for her in WI, MI and PA is that the entire statewide gov is democrats with very good election infrastructure from winning all the statewide races,   Trump has the same at in GA with Kemp know that they’re playing nice.

There is a path for Harris without WI and that’s most likely NC but Dems have come close a few times there just to fall short.

Needless to say, the policies towards cities will be starkly different depending on which one wins.  I think green line is dead with Trump back

I think a Trump presidency would be very bad for St. Louis and the country. 

I hope you're wrong. 

negative ads/news against Trump don’t move voters.  43 or so % will vote for him no matter what, 45% will not & the 12% left know & acknowledge he’s a horrible person but are open to voting for him.    There has been a global shift to the right of center on the last 2 years, we arent immune to that force.  You also have to realize that your average swing voter is totally oblivious to alot of things and no amount of facts or data and change their mind.

The Vegas odds have Trump as the favorite. At this point, he’s given us so many reasons not to vote for him, if you are going to vote for him, I don’t know what could happen between now and election day that would change your mind.


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Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑

Oct 18, 2024

The Vegas odds have Trump as the favorite. At this point, he’s given us so many reasons not to vote for him, if you are going to vote for him, I don’t know what could happen between now and election day that would change your mind.


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Betting markets aren’t a good gauge. At 7:00 in 2022 they had gop winning the senate easily
and gop ended up dropping a seat

This isn’t over by a mile, tomorrow evidence will be made public in trumps federal election case, so a lot can happen to get the few final voters to break

One thing that’s key for Harris to to get to 49% in polling averages across those 3 northern states. Polls missed margin in 2020 but they didn’t miss Biden’s total by much

PA: 49.4 average. Final 50.01%
MI: 50.4 average. Final 50.6
WI 51 average. Final 49.5

dbInSouthCity wrote:

Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑

Oct 18, 2024

The Vegas odds have Trump as the favorite. At this point, he’s given us so many reasons not to vote for him, if you are going to vote for him, I don’t know what could happen between now and election day that would change your mind.


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Betting markets aren’t a good gauge. At 7:00 in 2022 they had gop winning the senate easily
and gop ended up dropping a seat

This isn’t over by a mile, tomorrow evidence will be made public in trumps federal election case, so a lot can happen to get the few final voters to break

One thing that’s key for Harris to to get to 49% in polling averages across those 3 northern states. Polls missed margin in 2020 but they didn’t miss Biden’s total by much

PA: 49.4 average. Final 50.01%
MI: 50.4 average. Final 50.6
WI 51 average. Final 49.5

The betting markets have been pretty accurate in Presidential elections though. They’ve only missed 1 since 1980. I hope you’re right though.


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I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

goat314 wrote:I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

Dude you’ve lost me on this. How in the world Kamala doesn’t sound inspiring? She seems to be by far just as bi partisan as Biden if not more. She’s a very accomplished woman & way more accomplished than fraud fat orange turd Trump. Any black person & lgbtq person voting for Trump is a sellout. I mean you name something Trump accomplished in his 4 failed years as president besides stamping his name on government stimulus checks? I’m going to be the only one to speak up on the matter. Trump is too old too racist & by far the most uninspiring corrupt candidate to rerun for president & in fact should be disqualified to ever be in politics. 34 felonies & counting. Come on give me a break on this rhetoric bullsh*t about Kamala. She has far way more support than people lead on to believe & she’ll win in a landslide. Men don’t wanna see a woman be in power specially a black woman. You probably think Laura clown face loomer is more inspiring. All of you are brainwashed I’ll never vote for anyone who’s more than willing to sellout my country let alone take away my rights on freedom.


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PlatinumBlues wrote:

goat314 wrote:I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

Dude you’ve lost me on this. How in the world Kamala doesn’t sound inspiring? She seems to be by far just as bi partisan as Biden if not more. She’s a very accomplished woman & way more accomplished than fraud fat orange turd Trump. Any black person & lgbtq person voting for Trump is a sellout. I mean you name something Trump accomplished in his 4 failed years as president besides stamping his name on government stimulus checks? I’m going to be the only one to speak up on the matter. Trump is too old too racist & by far the most uninspiring corrupt candidate to rerun for president & in fact should be disqualified to ever be in politics. 34 felonies & counting. Come on give me a break on this rhetoric bullsh*t about Kamala. She has far way more support than people lead on to believe & she’ll win in a landslide. Men don’t wanna see a woman be in power specially a black woman. You probably think Laura clown face loomer is more inspiring. All of you are brainwashed I’ll never vote for anyone who’s more than willing to sellout my country let alone take away my rights on freedom.


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Take a deep breath. I’m voting for Kamala. I’d bet my mortgage she isn’t going win by a landslide.

What you’ve laid out above isn’t getting across to a lot of people.

Also the whole mantra of calling all black or LGBTQ people sellouts based on who they vote for turns people off from liberalism. It’s not helping.


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Debaliviere91 wrote:

PlatinumBlues wrote:

goat314 wrote:I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

Dude you’ve lost me on this. How in the world Kamala doesn’t sound inspiring? She seems to be by far just as bi partisan as Biden if not more. She’s a very accomplished woman & way more accomplished than fraud fat orange turd Trump. Any black person & lgbtq person voting for Trump is a sellout. I mean you name something Trump accomplished in his 4 failed years as president besides stamping his name on government stimulus checks? I’m going to be the only one to speak up on the matter. Trump is too old too racist & by far the most uninspiring corrupt candidate to rerun for president & in fact should be disqualified to ever be in politics. 34 felonies & counting. Come on give me a break on this rhetoric bullsh*t about Kamala. She has far way more support than people lead on to believe & she’ll win in a landslide. Men don’t wanna see a woman be in power specially a black woman. You probably think Laura clown face loomer is more inspiring. All of you are brainwashed I’ll never vote for anyone who’s more than willing to sellout my country let alone take away my rights on freedom.


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Take a deep breath. I’m voting for Kamala. I’d bet my mortgage she isn’t going win by a landslide.

What you’ve laid out above isn’t getting across to a lot of people.

Also the whole mantra of calling all black or LGBTQ people sellouts based on who they vote for turns people off from liberalism. It’s not helping.


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I’m not calling all black people nor LGBQT people sellouts but the ones that vote for someone like Trump or Vance yes they are. I’m a very bi partisan person but there’s no compromising on the MAGA agenda or whatever it is. I mean does the Republican Party even exist anymore???? A co worker of mine told me the main reasons he’s voting for Trump is because he’s anti women in power & the boarder wall to keep immigrants out of the country & taking our jobs I mean really it doesn’t get more pathetic than that or maybe it does. Either way I stand by on my position on the matter even if she doesn’t win by a landslide I’m still having plenty of drinks & a great big celebration


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PlatinumBlues wrote: ↑

Oct 18, 2024

goat314 wrote:I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

Dude you’ve lost me on this. How in the world Kamala doesn’t sound inspiring? She seems to be by far just as bi partisan as Biden if not more. She’s a very accomplished woman & way more accomplished than fraud fat orange turd Trump. Any black person & lgbtq person voting for Trump is a sellout. I mean you name something Trump accomplished in his 4 failed years as president besides stamping his name on government stimulus checks? I’m going to be the only one to speak up on the matter. Trump is too old too racist & by far the most uninspiring corrupt candidate to rerun for president & in fact should be disqualified to ever be in politics. 34 felonies & counting. Come on give me a break on this rhetoric bullsh*t about Kamala. She has far way more support than people lead on to believe & she’ll win in a landslide. Men don’t wanna see a woman be in power specially a black woman. You probably think Laura clown face loomer is more inspiring. All of you are brainwashed I’ll never vote for anyone who’s more than willing to sellout my country let alone take away my rights on freedom.


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1. Goat314 is black
2. Goat314 is a more of a pragmatic moderate
3. Goat314 is just relaying conversations that he has heard from others in the black community, which polling and data seem to be corroborating
4. Goat314 does not think Kamala is a strong candidate
5. Goat314 is not going to vote for Trump
6. Goat314 doesn't think pandering and name calling black people will help the Democratic campaign
7. Goat314 doesn't think black people who are conservatives are "sellouts"
8. Goat314 thinks the Biden presidency has been a disaster
9. Goat314 will likely vote Green Party
10. Goat314 thinks Democrats have taken black and young voters for granted way too long and it will definitely bite them in the @$$ come November.

^ with all due respect, though, a green party vote is a vote for trump. i understand that neither candidate is ideal, but that's reality. there will never be an ideal candidate. you vote the lesser evil and try to make gradual change through the party that is less resistant to change. 3rd party votes will lead to a trump presidency and the very real possibility of authoritarianism/christian nationalist rule.

goat314 can be wrong if goat314 wants to. goat314 thinking Biden has been a "disaster" pretty much says it all, and if Harris loses, it will solely be because of how utterly misinformed so much of the voting base is, including people like goat341. 

goat314 wrote: ↑

Oct 18, 2024

I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

That’s not as simple as that, when subgroups are over sampled and polled she’s at 89-8 with black voters. So about the same with Biden. Where Trump gains with black voters is those who do not vote but if they do show up is still a net positive for Harris because she wins those 70-30. So if a 100 show up that didn’t in 2020, she nets 40 votes. Race Depolarization has been talked about for a while but it’s been marginal in 2022 mid terms and statewide races in 2023

TheWayoftheArch_V2.0 wrote: ↑

Oct 19, 2024

Holy sh*t, what masochist started this thread?

lol. When we've got threads about construction derail into huge arguments and name calling, I'm sure an election thread will be great!

flipz wrote: ↑

Oct 21, 2024

TheWayoftheArch_V2.0 wrote: ↑

Oct 19, 2024

Holy sh*t, what masochist started this thread?

lol. When we've got threads about construction derail into huge arguments and name calling, I'm sure an election thread will be great!

That's completely different, construction actually matters.

^ sorry reality doesn't appreciate your idealism. correct me if i'm wrong, but i assume you're of a demographic that would pretty easily fly under the radar if the christian taliban takes over. some of us would prefer not to be hunted down or forced to bear children. give me an election where the democratic socialist stands a chance of winning over an authoritarian with fascist tendencies backed by ultra-conservative christians and i'll vote democratic socialist party all the way.

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

^ sorry reality doesn't appreciate your idealism. correct me if i'm wrong, but i assume you're of a demographic that would pretty easily fly under the radar if the christian taliban takes over. some of us would prefer not to be hunted down or forced to bear children. give me an election where the democratic socialist stands a chance of winning over an authoritarian with fascist tendencies backed by ultra-conservative christians and i'll vote democratic socialist party all the way.

If I read between the lines of your post it seems to be saying that you think Democratic politicians will protect abortion rights. Seems weird to me since they didn't do that in 1979, or 1993, or 2009, or 2023.

MarkHaversham wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

^ sorry reality doesn't appreciate your idealism. correct me if i'm wrong, but i assume you're of a demographic that would pretty easily fly under the radar if the christian taliban takes over. some of us would prefer not to be hunted down or forced to bear children. give me an election where the democratic socialist stands a chance of winning over an authoritarian with fascist tendencies backed by ultra-conservative christians and i'll vote democratic socialist party all the way.

If I read between the lines of your post it seems to be saying that you think Democratic politicians will protect abortion rights. Seems weird to me since they didn't do that in 1979, or 1993, or 2009, or 2023.

Do you live in some sort of alternate reality? Dems have been pushing to extend those rights to all Americans and are the reason we have the opportunity to vote to do so in this state now

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Oct 19, 2024

goat314 wrote: ↑

Oct 18, 2024

I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

That’s not as simple as that, when subgroups are over sampled and polled she’s at 89-8 with black voters. So about the same with Biden.  Where Trump gains with black voters is those who do not vote but if they do show up is still a net positive for Harris because she wins those 70-30. So if a 100 show up that didn’t in 2020, she nets 40 votes.    Race Depolarization has been talked about for a while but it’s been marginal in 2022 mid terms and statewide races in 2023

Okay authority on the black community. 

_nomad_ wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

MarkHaversham wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

urban_dilettante wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

^ sorry reality doesn't appreciate your idealism. correct me if i'm wrong, but i assume you're of a demographic that would pretty easily fly under the radar if the christian taliban takes over. some of us would prefer not to be hunted down or forced to bear children. give me an election where the democratic socialist stands a chance of winning over an authoritarian with fascist tendencies backed by ultra-conservative christians and i'll vote democratic socialist party all the way.

If I read between the lines of your post it seems to be saying that you think Democratic politicians will protect abortion rights. Seems weird to me since they didn't do that in 1979, or 1993, or 2009, or 2023.

Do you live in some sort of alternate reality? Dems have been pushing to extend those rights to all Americans and are the reason we have the opportunity to vote to do so in this state now

Weird how they've spent decades "pushing to extend those rights" yet somehow never actually extended them. I'm sure they'll totally do it this time though.

goat314 wrote: ↑

Oct 25, 2024

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Oct 19, 2024

goat314 wrote: ↑

Oct 18, 2024

I'm gonna be honest. Trump is probably going to win. Kamala is not an inspiring candidate and is doing even worse with Black voters (particularly Black men) than Joe did.

That’s not as simple as that, when subgroups are over sampled and polled she’s at 89-8 with black voters. So about the same with Biden.  Where Trump gains with black voters is those who do not vote but if they do show up is still a net positive for Harris because she wins those 70-30. So if a 100 show up that didn’t in 2020, she nets 40 votes.    Race Depolarization has been talked about for a while but it’s been marginal in 2022 mid terms and statewide races in 2023

Okay authority on the black community. 

More like authority on the numbers. Which I am.