urbanSTL

Nashville airport claims it is a "finalist" for an Aer Lingus flight and a decision will be made this month. The airport says there are at least three other competitors. Flights would start in May 2025, which I think aligns with Aer Lingus taking delivery of the A321XLRs.

https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/na ... e-airport/

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Noooo. It should be Missouri’s first thoroughbred race track! Bill Stiritz, let’s go!

NHampton wrote: ↑

Sep 23, 2024

Nashville airport claims it is a "finalist" for an Aer Lingus flight and a decision will be made this month. The airport says there are at least three other competitors. Flights would start in May 2025, which I think aligns with Aer Lingus taking delivery of the A321XLRs.

https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/na ... e-airport/

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Nashville also claimed they got a flight to Germany on Discover airlines. Only they didn’t. (Story at your link has been updated) They are the most loose lipped airport.

That all said rumors are it’s between St Louis, Indy, Columbus, Nashville.

Aer Lingus is asking for RFPs due at the end of the month from each. Could be more the one that gets the flight. Supposedly STL and Nashville would require a blocked business class seat for an extra pilot due to flight length.

^ I've been reading your posts and others on the topic over at airliners.net and most seem think BNA will end up as the big winner if ATL is dehubbed. I see some speculating about cuts at MDW and that would likely benefit STL but most think the cuts in Chicago, if there are any, will be at ORD. 

Interesting week, for sure!

I’ve been really interested in the future passenger numbers at Lambert International Airport, so I decided to pull together some projections based on recent data and trends. Here’s a detailed breakdown comparing bullish and bearish estimates:

Bullish Trends
Projected Passenger Estimates (BULLISH):
- 2023: 14,886,000 (+1,220,483, 8.20%)
- 2024: 16,300,170 (+1,414,170, 9.50%)
- 2025: 17,941,597 (+1,641,427, 10.07%)
- 2026: 19,850,583 (+1,908,986, 10.64%)
- 2027: 22,075,833 (+2,225,250, 11.21%)
- 2028: 24,676,367 (+2,600,533, 11.78%)
- 2029: 27,723,898 (+3,047,531, 12.35%)
- 2030: 31,305,825 (+3,581,928, 12.92%)

Bearish Trends
Projected Passenger Estimates (BEARISH):
- 2023: 14,886,000 (+1,220,483, 8.20%)
- 2024: 16,300,170 (+1,414,170, 9.50%)
- 2025: 16,789,175 (+489,005, 3.00%)
- 2026: 17,292,850 (+503,675, 3.00%)
- 2027: 17,811,636 (+518,786, 3.00%)
- 2028: 18,345,985 (+534,349, 3.00%)
- 2029: 18,896,364 (+550,380, 3.00%)
- 2030: 19,463,255 (+566,891, 3.00%)

The anticipated news from Southwest Airlines tomorrow could significantly impact growth expectations for Lambert. If Southwest announces new routes or expansions, we could see an uptick in passenger numbers that would align with the more bullish projections. Conversely, if the news is less favorable, it might dampen growth expectations and push us closer to the conservative estimates.

Additionally, the projected start of construction for the new single terminal design in mid-2027 may stifle growth for a small period due to potential disruptions and limited capacity during the transition. However, upon completion sometime in the 2030s, the new terminal is expected to enhance the airport’s capacity and facilities, opening up new opportunities for increased passenger traffic and international destinations.

It's also worth noting that after Kansas City opened their new terminal in late February 2023, they experienced a 15% increase in year-over-year passenger numbers the following year. While this could be influenced by the broader recovery from the pandemic, it remains a significant point to consider for Lambert’s future projections.

While the bullish projections suggest significant growth, it’s essential to recognize that these estimates may not be sustainable over the long term. The historical average growth rate, particularly from 2009 to 2019, was around 2.25%, and using passenger numbers since 1990 (excluding the TWA pullout years and pandemic years), the average YOY growth is closer to 3%. 

^ that ain’t happening

1% annual growth is the best you’ll get

TRUESONJB wrote: ↑

Sep 26, 2024

Additionally, the projected start of construction for the new single terminal design in mid-2027 may stifle growth for a small period due to potential disruptions and limited capacity during the transition. However, upon completion sometime in the 2030s, the new terminal is expected to enhance the airport’s capacity and facilities, opening up new opportunities for increased passenger traffic and international destinations.

There's enough excess capacity between C and D to completely replace A. It will get crowded, but if they plan it well they should be able to build the new terminal with barely any disruptions at all.

The >10% annual growth is definitely too Bullish, and even the 5% annual would be Bullish considering the last 20 or so years of growth. But greater than 1% is very doable IMO. The two big aspects for growth are the O&D growth and then how much Southwest really wants to "hub" STL. O&D growth between 2015 and 2019 was between 2.5-4% each of those years for domestic travelers. So even if the airport can stabilize back to around there, they'd be right in the middle of 1-5%. There is probably only so much the airport itself can do to swing O&D a ton (new flights will induce more O&D, etc., but there is a limit to it), it's more if the metro as a whole can generate lots more demand.

The bigger possible swing to either juice growth or tamp it down is the connecting passengers aspect of the growth. I don't have the latest numbers, but in 2018 a little over 30% of Lambert's domestic passengers were connecting travel with the rest being O&D. That numbers is influenced pretty heavily by how "hubish" Southwest makes STL. But if Southwest were to significantly increase routes that number could go up to something like 40%. For example, MDW was at 37.5% connecting traffic in 2018. Moving that connecting % up and having stable O&D growth could yield something closer to the Bearish projection above IMO, but there are a lot of ifs there. For one thing, even when STL's O&D growth was 2.5-4%, that still put it in the lower half of growth when looking at the top 60 airports in the country.

Bloomberg TV just said one of the winners of the Southwest reshuffle will be STL. Don’t know what that means flights-wise…

SW announced a partnership with Iceland Air. Would make some level of sense for them to eventually add another European destination here through them as we are a focus city for SW.

I'm a broken record but my aim would be filling in the Southwest gaps to make us a true hub. Indy, Louisville, Cincy, Memphis etc as opposed to more vanity European flights. We will do well to keep Lufthansa for now, so lets not cut off our noses to spite our face.

Suburban Sprawl wrote: ↑

Sep 26, 2024

I'm a broken record but my aim would be filling in the Southwest gaps to make us a true hub. Indy, Louisville, Cincy, Memphis etc as opposed to more vanity European flights. We will do well to keep Lufthansa for now, so lets not cut off our noses to spite our face.

I think that’s coming.

wow Traveled in and out of LGA yesterday. Its nice; compared to the old cramped LGA.
When will STL be super nice?

TRUESONJB wrote: ↑

Sep 26, 2024

I’ve been really interested in the future passenger numbers at Lambert International Airport, so I decided to pull together some projections based on recent data and trends. Here’s a detailed breakdown comparing bullish and bearish estimates:

Bullish Trends
Projected Passenger Estimates (BULLISH):
- 2023: 14,886,000 (+1,220,483, 8.20%)
- 2024: 16,300,170 (+1,414,170, 9.50%)
- 2025: 17,941,597 (+1,641,427, 10.07%)
- 2026: 19,850,583 (+1,908,986, 10.64%)
- 2027: 22,075,833 (+2,225,250, 11.21%)
- 2028: 24,676,367 (+2,600,533, 11.78%)
- 2029: 27,723,898 (+3,047,531, 12.35%)
- 2030: 31,305,825 (+3,581,928, 12.92%)

Bearish Trends
Projected Passenger Estimates (BEARISH):
- 2023: 14,886,000 (+1,220,483, 8.20%)
- 2024: 16,300,170 (+1,414,170, 9.50%)
- 2025: 16,789,175 (+489,005, 3.00%)
- 2026: 17,292,850 (+503,675, 3.00%)
- 2027: 17,811,636 (+518,786, 3.00%)
- 2028: 18,345,985 (+534,349, 3.00%)
- 2029: 18,896,364 (+550,380, 3.00%)
- 2030: 19,463,255 (+566,891, 3.00%)

The anticipated news from Southwest Airlines tomorrow could significantly impact growth expectations for Lambert. If Southwest announces new routes or expansions, we could see an uptick in passenger numbers that would align with the more bullish projections. Conversely, if the news is less favorable, it might dampen growth expectations and push us closer to the conservative estimates.

Additionally, the projected start of construction for the new single terminal design in mid-2027 may stifle growth for a small period due to potential disruptions and limited capacity during the transition. However, upon completion sometime in the 2030s, the new terminal is expected to enhance the airport’s capacity and facilities, opening up new opportunities for increased passenger traffic and international destinations.

It's also worth noting that after Kansas City opened their new terminal in late February 2023, they experienced a 15% increase in year-over-year passenger numbers the following year. While this could be influenced by the broader recovery from the pandemic, it remains a significant point to consider for Lambert’s future projections.

While the bullish projections suggest significant growth, it’s essential to recognize that these estimates may not be sustainable over the long term. The historical average growth rate, particularly from 2009 to 2019, was around 2.25%, and using passenger numbers since 1990 (excluding the TWA pullout years and pandemic years), the average YOY growth is closer to 3%. 

The airport projects 21 mil by 2040. I think that’s low but your bullish is way too high.

Kc had a big increase because they were held back the year previously while everyone else grew a bunch to rebound from covid. They did a bunch of catch up, now are flattening out.

whitherSTL wrote: ↑

Sep 26, 2024

Suburban Sprawl wrote: ↑

Sep 26, 2024

I'm a broken record but my aim would be filling in the Southwest gaps to make us a true hub. Indy, Louisville, Cincy, Memphis etc as opposed to more vanity European flights. We will do well to keep Lufthansa for now, so lets not cut off our noses to spite our face.

I think that’s coming.

I certainly hope so.  I realize Louisville and Indy are close, but so is KC.  There is a noticeable gap with Cincy, where my manager is.  Having to make a connection between these two cities is ridiculous.

Albuquerque, Birmingham, Grand Rapids and maybe Salt Lake City and Boise fill out most of the larger cities served by SW that we are missing.   Wouldn't that be great to add all of those?  That would really boost our passenger and flight count.

I flew through Denver to Palm Springs earlier this year.  Man, what a busy airport.  And with weather we were over an hour delayed getting out.  United is huge there.  The line to take off was almost 20 planes long.  I can't believe these airports want to put more than one hub at an airport and complete for the take off / landings when there are weather issues.   We have runway capacity and it would be great to see us grow.  I get worried with us between Midway and Dallas, and I fear they will not want to reduce in those markets.

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Sep 26, 2024

The airport projects 21 mil by 2040. I think that’s low but your bullish is way too high.

Kc had a big increase because they were held back the year previously while everyone else grew a bunch to rebound from covid. They did a bunch of catch up, now are flattening out.

The bullish outlook was just extrapolating current trends (which is entirely unsustainable)

August numbers for STL

Passengers up 8.3% vs August 2023
Passenger up 1.4% vs August 2019

Passengers up 9.3% YTD vs 2023
Passengers up 0.9% YTD vs 2019

Passengers last 12 months: 15,801,064

Twice a day Heathrow to Austin? Is this April 1st?


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Will STL ever get a JFK flights back? I remember Delta having it, but now its no more. I know some people using JFK for international travel, but they hate having to go to LGA just to fly back here. I think JFK is like the only major domestic airport that STL isn't connected to.