GSL is working on a challenge for STL city. One of the issues is that city is also counted as a county. Removing the county status would probably add 4,000-5,000 to the est alone according to Ness Sandoval. Detroit has challenged and won twice since 2020 and now has seen its first gain in 68 years.
^ good news, here's hoping the challenge works! Better than the city losing it's own county status, how about STL city incorporating back into STL County?
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https://x.com/ybytata/status/1791180040161341911SB in BH wrote: ↑May 16, 2024^^Remove county status from what? FBI UCR classification?
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St. Louis city is now allegedly down to 281,000 residents.
I hope a challenge would work. At this rate, St. Louis may be around 250,000 at the 2030 census.
I think we might all see Overland Park, KS pass St. Louis in size before the region decides to do anything about the Great Divorce.
I hope a challenge would work. At this rate, St. Louis may be around 250,000 at the 2030 census.
I think we might all see Overland Park, KS pass St. Louis in size before the region decides to do anything about the Great Divorce.
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What do you base that estimate off of?dbInSouthCity wrote:We are probably around 295,000 in reality.
Hopefully somebody can explain something to me.
I am 100% for the re-entry of the city into the county. It is a no-brainer that should have happened decades ago. But even if it that happened tomorrow, I fail to understand how that will do anything about the city's population loss. The city of St. Louis will still have its current boundaries even if it is a municipality within St. Louis County. That is, unless geographically contiguous areas are annexed into the city proper.
I feel like there is a narrative that the city re-entering the county is going to magically change these data sets, but the people migrating from (primarily north) St. Louis are leaving for reasons of schools, safety, substandard housing stock. Or they are having smaller families or staying single. Those conditions don't magically change. Unless I need to be educated on something I don't understand.
I am 100% for the re-entry of the city into the county. It is a no-brainer that should have happened decades ago. But even if it that happened tomorrow, I fail to understand how that will do anything about the city's population loss. The city of St. Louis will still have its current boundaries even if it is a municipality within St. Louis County. That is, unless geographically contiguous areas are annexed into the city proper.
I feel like there is a narrative that the city re-entering the county is going to magically change these data sets, but the people migrating from (primarily north) St. Louis are leaving for reasons of schools, safety, substandard housing stock. Or they are having smaller families or staying single. Those conditions don't magically change. Unless I need to be educated on something I don't understand.
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I don't think that merging the city and the county is a magic bullet or panacea, but I think this region needs to start working together if it wants to go anywhere.
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Yeah no one is saying it would change population patterns.stlokc wrote: ↑May 16, 2024Hopefully somebody can explain something to me.
I am 100% for the re-entry of the city into the county. It is a no-brainer that should have happened decades ago. But even if it that happened tomorrow, I fail to understand how that will do anything about the city's population loss. The city of St. Louis will still have its current boundaries even if it is a municipality within St. Louis County. That is, unless geographically contiguous areas are annexed into the city proper.
I feel like there is a narrative that the city re-entering the county is going to magically change these data sets, but the people migrating from (primarily north) St. Louis are leaving for reasons of schools, safety, substandard housing stock. Or they are having smaller families or staying single. Those conditions don't magically change. Unless I need to be educated on something I don't understand.
People are saying our current status affects how the census bureau allocates the population during their annual census estimates which results in the census bureau saying we only have 280k residents 3 years after they said we had 300k+ which is an incredibly dramatic swing. If we were part of the county that would not happen.
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The baseline data on how the census estimates are done. first the state number is counted and then that number is distributed to the counties and we are a county but the number a county can get is capped to certain % of state pop. Other big things is it subtracts 2 people for every demolished building. Most of ours have been vacant for a while and that lose is accounted for in census every 10 years, so then house gets demolished decades later and we lose 2 more, in effect double counting a lose. And the biggest is census doesn’t consider renovations as a new residents but in the city’s permit system when a building like Butler brothers went from nothing to 384 units, it’s not new construction, it’s alternation/renovation.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑May 16, 2024What do you base that estimate off of?dbInSouthCity wrote:We are probably around 295,000 in reality.
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That is a seriously flawed system.dbInSouthCity wrote:The baseline data on how the census estimates are done. first the state number is counted and then that number is distributed to the counties and we are a county but the number a county can get is capped to certain % of state pop. Other big things is it subtracts 2 people for every demolished building. Most of ours have been vacant for a while and that lose is accounted for in census every 10 years, so then house gets demolished decades later and we lose 2 more, in effect double counting a lose. And the biggest is census doesn’t consider renovations as a new residents but in the city’s permit system when a building like Butler brothers went from nothing to 384 units, it’s not new construction, it’s alternation/renovation.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑May 16, 2024What do you base that estimate off of?dbInSouthCity wrote:We are probably around 295,000 in reality.
So the system is dumb and highly inaccurate but it does a great job providing fodder for clickbait articles.
The country/world would view our region much differently is we folded the city into the county and disbanded all the counties muni's. It a numbers and optics game.
The country/world would view our region much differently is we folded the city into the county and disbanded all the counties muni's. It a numbers and optics game.
I have a pretty good feeling that AI is going to reinvent the Census eventually.
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The Census has household sizes in geographically constrained cities like St Louis and many others dropping at 2% per year. Counteracting that loss though new construction is impossible except in the very fasted growing cities, Washington, DC for example. Most others are taking big population losses. I think Philadelphia's 16K population loss while building at least 10K new housing units a year is the most surprising. As for conversions, Baltimore had a great year in 2023, with 1,000 hotel rooms converted to apartments (and more in the pipeline,) however new apartment and rowhouse construction, lots of conversion projects, and 400 more houses rehabbed than going vacant only produces half the new housing needed to keep the population steady. St Luis is in exactly the same boat. Here is a commentary that ran in the Baltimore Banner: https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/opin ... SYNY2N3S4/ By the way, Charlie Duff isn't a moron.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑May 16, 2024The baseline data on how the census estimates are done. first the state number is counted and then that number is distributed to the counties and we are a county but the number a county can get is capped to certain % of state pop. Other big things is it subtracts 2 people for every demolished building. Most of ours have been vacant for a while and that lose is accounted for in census every 10 years, so then house gets demolished decades later and we lose 2 more, in effect double counting a lose. And the biggest is census doesn’t consider renovations as a new residents but in the city’s permit system when a building like Butler brothers went from nothing to 384 units, it’s not new construction, it’s alternation/renovation.Debaliviere91 wrote: ↑May 16, 2024What do you base that estimate off of?dbInSouthCity wrote:We are probably around 295,000 in reality.
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I wonder if you could merge AI with a rolling census. Every time someone moves into a house or apartment, they specify the number of people moving there. State and municipalities can monitor deaths and births of citizens within their respective boundaries. Whenever someone moves out, they declare the number of people who are leaving. Together, you keep a very accurate count at what’s going on.
It doesn’t require anything new. Computing can utilize the things we already have like car registrations, transit ridership, business licenses, unemployment, parking utilization, automated traffic counting, voter registration, construction permits, and most importantly… cell phone data.Chris Stritzel wrote:I wonder if you could merge AI with a rolling census. Every time someone moves into a house or apartment, they specify the number of people moving there. State and municipalities can monitor deaths and births of citizens within their respective boundaries. Whenever someone moves out, they declare the number of people who are leaving. Together, you keep a very accurate count at what’s going on.
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Can you imagine what the 66 square miles of St. Louis city was like back when it was 800k as opposed to 281k now? It must've been absolutely and wonderfully awesome.
I wouldn't be so sure about that, people romanticize the past. That's very crowded, some people were leaving to the suburbs once it became practical, even before white flight. I was reading that in large cities before cars the stench of horse manure was overwhelming and utterly messy when it rained. I'm sure there were some fantastic aspects about that many people but I'm positive there are numerous negatives we don't realize today.leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑May 18, 2024Can you imagine what the 66 square miles of St. Louis city was like back when it was 800k as opposed to 281k now? It must've been absolutely and wonderfully awesome.
My grandfather grew up in St. Louis during that time and he said it was mostly a crowded slum. The city was highly segregated by class and race, the city was very industrial and polluted, there was still a lot of crime too. I think St. Louis would be great if it was about 500k in the city limits, metro population around 4 million. Anything over that I think would significantly lower the quality of life.leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑May 18, 2024Can you imagine what the 66 square miles of St. Louis city was like back when it was 800k as opposed to 281k now? It must've been absolutely and wonderfully awesome.
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Other than NYC has any major turn of the century city returned to its 1950/60 peak population?
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^ only places that have a chance is the ones with very large city limit, so large that majority of the post WWII burbs got built in the city.
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SF has also done it. But yeah I think I agree.
I think DC and Boston have too, but that's heavily economics based. Also, those cities invested heavily in mass transit. It seems that legacy cities that invested heavily in mass transit remained more centralized.JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑May 20, 2024SF has also done it. But yeah I think I agree.