urbanSTL

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Dec 18, 2023

After 17 days in Dec, we’ve had 5 homicides and at 150 for the year.  Over the summer I thought we had a good chance for 170 but now we are two weeks away from 150s. Pretty remarkable progress, anything below 160 would be -20% for year and -41% from 2020

Do you have the month-to-month trend for the year?  I don't know this, but it feels like there was a steady drop over the course of the year.  If that is truly the case the goal should be to keep that momentum going into 2024 and significantly beat the 150-160 total, we'll likely land in. 

If the overall goal for the health of the city is to resume growth, we need to get off the most dangerous city lists.  You can argue numbers all day, but it is an issue.  We feel and hear it all the time recruiting for our company here.  Those that make the jump typically love the move here, but unfortunately many talented individuals take an early pass once they do a little on-line research on our city.

robertn42 wrote:

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Dec 18, 2023

After 17 days in Dec, we’ve had 5 homicides and at 150 for the year.  Over the summer I thought we had a good chance for 170 but now we are two weeks away from 150s. Pretty remarkable progress, anything below 160 would be -20% for year and -41% from 2020

Do you have the month-to-month trend for the year?  I don't know this, but it feels like there was a steady drop over the course of the year.  If that is truly the case the goal should be to keep that momentum going into 2024 and significantly beat the 150-160 total, we'll likely land in. 

If the overall goal for the health of the city is to resume growth, we need to get off the most dangerous city lists.  You can argue numbers all day, but it is an issue.  We feel and hear it all the time recruiting for our company here.  Those that make the jump typically love the move here, but unfortunately many talented individuals take an early pass once they do a little on-line research on our city.

It will be a challenge to see a similar trend in 2024 simply because we have had such strong improvements in 2023. I would consider matching 2023’s numbers in 2024 a win and perhaps a sign of a more long term impact on crime.

Perhaps we can continue to see declines in at least the front half of 2024 due to impacts from Gore’s office and the push to get more guns off the streets.

Unfortunately as the city shrinks in population, the murders need to drop even more to lower the "per capita" stat

going into like may i think we were on pace for same as last year. 

GoHarvOrGoHome wrote:Unfortunately as the city shrinks in population, the murders need to drop even more to lower the "per capita" stat

It would be nice to get St Louis lower on the national murders per capita list, but that’s less of a concern for me. The national narrative on crime trends is so out of whack anyway. Crime trends are dropping across the board this year, yet the perception is the opposite. If we are able to move into a better ranking, don’t expect people to hear it.

I’m more concerned with the perception of our own residents. When they feel safer for a sustained period, you’ll start to see the narrative change. That means more than just a dropping murder rate.

We won't be off the list until the SLMPD merges with the County PD. Without that to get out of the top ten, we'd need to get below 70 homicides, another 50%+ decrease from where we are now. The city hasn't had fewer than 70 since 1951.

quincunx wrote:We won't be off the list until the SLMPD merges with the County PD. Without that to get out of the top ten, we'd need to get below 70 homicides, another 50%+ decrease from where we are now. The city hasn't had fewer than 70 since 1951.

Totally agree.

SLMPD should start publishing data on breakdown of suspects/victims by last known county of residence, i think youd see that bc of our small 62sq mil size that our number for out of City limit suspects/victims is much higher than other places, esp 300 sq mi KC 

^I was doing some soft math on a per capita last week by city in the top ten and I also realized this was the case... pretty frustrating. 

^ using this data….

The number of homicides in the 12 months ending that month. Data starts 1/1/2014.

Best evidence to me that the city might be pushing further than “return to normal”

You’re the only one with graph making skills around here

with 10 days to go....at 151.....

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Dec 25, 2023

3 fatals yesterday

The one in FPSE was an Airbnb party. I can't wait for the new regulations to be implemented.

Is there anything about the regulation that stops parties? It was my understanding it was more about limiting the total amount of units in neighborhoods.


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dtgwvc wrote:Is there anything about the regulation that stops parties? It was my understanding it was more about limiting the total amount of units in neighborhoods.


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It does expressly prohibit parties, though that seems difficult to enforce.

The regulation also prohibits single night stays, which appears to often be the case for problematic parties.

Maybe most impressive from this year’s drop in homicides is where it happened…

North Patrol (5&6): -32%
Central Patrol (3&4): 0%
South Patrol (1&2): -30%

dtgwvc wrote: ↑

Dec 25, 2023

Is there anything about the regulation that stops parties? It was my understanding it was more about limiting the total amount of units in neighborhoods.


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Section 11.E of BB33 gives the Building Commissioner pretty wide latitude to revoke operating permits for problems.

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Dec 26, 2023

Maybe most impressive from this year’s drop in homicides is where it happened…

North Patrol (5&6): -32%
Central Patrol (3&4): 0%
South Patrol (1&2): -30%

North is 5/6
Central 3/4
South 1/2

looking forward to all the local news coverage of these encouraging stats.

KSDK is leading with it on the 5pm news. "Safest year in a decade"