urbanSTL

StlToday - Motorcyclist who shot cars, custard stand arrested after high-speed chase in St. Louis County

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/cri ... pular-news

What’s working in the central patrol (almost everything east of grand)?

# of homicides 2022 (YTD), 2021 & 2020 (annual total)

most of our major employment centers are in the central patrol, 2022 more people back to work, more eyes balls out and about? 

TheWayoftheArch_V2.0 wrote: ↑

Jun 14, 2022

While I understand that homicide numbers play a huge role in the public perception of safety - particularly for anyone from outside - I think we should be looking at overall violent crime stats (read gun crime) to see where we are.  Perhaps cynical, but I feel like some of this decrease is due to dumb luck or bad aim.  Thoughts? 

I will say the uptick in clearance rates is impressive.

Haven't seen new data yet but I know at one point through October last year KMOVs Alexis Zotos reported that in 2021 through October there were about 1,300 shootings compared to 2500 through October 2020

For what it's worth, my personal "how much gunfire?" index from my back deck in Holly Hills has remained steady. Guaranteed to hear some gunshots on any given evening coming from the north (Dutchtown) and east (Carondelet and Patch), and about once a week to the south/west, which is Carondelet Park. Heard my first automatic gunfire in the park, probably 20-50 shots total (yes that's a big spread, hard to really judge accurately), roughly 3 weeks ago. Woke up both my wife and I and surely the rest of the neighborhood at about 2am, followed by the sound of screeching tires and revving engines. Nothing on the news the next day, just lots of speculation in the usual places. Judging by what I see trolling NextDoor, the level of property crimes of all kinds hasn't changed much either, though we fortunately have not experienced it ourselves.

Yes, yes, the plural of anecdote is not data, but if we're going by vibes instead of statistics, which I'd argue is the case for most people, then nothing has changed, certainly not for the better. 

Completely agree. From putting boots on the ground and speaking with people, crime is the same as last year and worse than 5 years ago and that’s all that matters to people. They don’t care about statistics.

^I don't believe that people don't care about statistics. They just want their anecdotal evidence to trump any larger trends that they perceive as contradicting their personal experiences.  They will embrace statistics that confirm their bias. 

I don't think that's a good view on experiences vs. stats.  If someone used to wake up twice each night due to gun shots, but now they're only woken up once each night 1) it's accurate to say that gun fire has decreased by 50% so the larger trends are going in the right direction but 2) it's also fair to say that their experiences of still listening to gun fire every night can't be discounted either. They absolutely would have a valid point to say "hey, I still don't think this is good!" People's experiences have to be considered along with the stats.

Laife Fulk wrote: ↑

Jun 15, 2022

If someone used to wake up twice each night due to gun shots, but now they're only woken up once each night 1) it's accurate to say that gun fire has decreased by 50% so the larger trends are going in the right direction but 2) it's also fair to say that their experiences of still listening to gun fire every night can't be discounted .

Ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous,  the list of other variables that are more likely for # 1 is a zillion long-  IE that person now hears 1 but another went from 1 to 4.  Or if one hears it once and keeps hearing it once doesn't mean it didn't go down or up as a whole, which why at end of the day the only thing that matters is the count on the paper.

^It may be ridiculous, but we're squishy, organic creatures, not statistical machines. Our perception is sometimes influenced by things we read, like statistics. Particularly if we're smart enough to know how important that is and how unreliable personal perception is. But we're also inevitably a product of our environment and our perspective, and we will be influenced by the people we interact with on a daily basis. The amount of gunfire is a fact. With luck the measurement can be fairly careful, and so the statistics can reflect the facts pretty reliably. Our own perception, however, is always a bit squishy and unreliable, but for most of natural history it's all a body had to go on to make those life or death decisions. So we're wired to pay attention to it. (With squishy wires that we can maybe fix to a degree. But it's never perfect and it's not easy.) And honestly, when there's a car hurtling at you down the street, it's good if you pay attention to the squishy sensory inputs. Wish it wasn't so messy, but . . . well . . . the upside is pretty fun so I'll live with the costs.

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

Laife Fulk wrote: ↑

Jun 15, 2022

If someone used to wake up twice each night due to gun shots, but now they're only woken up once each night 1) it's accurate to say that gun fire has decreased by 50% so the larger trends are going in the right direction but 2) it's also fair to say that their experiences of still listening to gun fire every night can't be discounted .

Ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous,  the list of other variables that are more likely for # 1 is a zillion long-  IE that person now hears 1 but another went from 1 to 4.  Or if one hears it once and keeps hearing it once doesn't mean it didn't go down or up as a whole, which why at end of the day the only thing that matters is the count on the paper.

I have never met a single person who makes every single decision based upon statistics alone.  This is not a ridiculous example at all.  Expecting people to disregard their experiences and only make opinions based upon macro level data is.

Laife Fulk wrote:

dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

Laife Fulk wrote: ↑

Jun 15, 2022

If someone used to wake up twice each night due to gun shots, but now they're only woken up once each night 1) it's accurate to say that gun fire has decreased by 50% so the larger trends are going in the right direction but 2) it's also fair to say that their experiences of still listening to gun fire every night can't be discounted .

Ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous,  the list of other variables that are more likely for # 1 is a zillion long-  IE that person now hears 1 but another went from 1 to 4.  Or if one hears it once and keeps hearing it once doesn't mean it didn't go down or up as a whole, which why at end of the day the only thing that matters is the count on the paper.

I have never met a single person who makes every single decision based upon statistics alone.  This is not a ridiculous example at all.  Expecting people to disregard their experiences and only make opinions based upon macro level data is.

Stats only matter to people crafting a certain narrative. That doesn’t help STL. E

Getting off topic from Crime to epistemology, but for me it goes: 

Direct experience >> Ideology >> Statistics

I interpret my experiences through my ideology (sometime consciously, sometimes not), and then use statistics to reaffirm or sometimes revise my ideology.  If I'm making a decision about something where direct experience is lacking and ideology is less relevant, e.g., where to buy a house, then I might use statistics to inform my decision, recognizing that stats are only a more-or-less accurate abstraction and not fully representative of reality.  

When it comes to crime in StL, the stats mostly don't match my direct experience, which my ideology suggests is because police and their bosses manipulate them for varying reasons and by varying means. On the other hand, I know enough about statistics to realize that the mismatch could also just be a unit of analysis error on my part--the stats cover the whole city whereas my experience is limited to mine and surrounding neighborhoods and thus both are accurate and informative in their own way.

Perceptions are driven by narratives driven by people in power. If anyone cared about statistics in the real world we'd be funneling money away from police budgets toward COVID prevention instead of the other way around, to say nothing of addressing people's material conditions so they aren't committing crimes in the first place.

^curious to know what data you’re looking at because the overwhelming numbers from the mid 90’d to 2016 support that more police and enforcement was a major factor in lower crime rates. Broken Windows was not an anomaly.

SB in BH wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

Getting off topic from Crime to epistemology, but for me it goes: 

Direct experience >> Ideology >> Statistics

I interpret my experiences through my ideology (sometime consciously, sometimes not), and then use statistics to reaffirm or sometimes revise my ideology.  If I'm making a decision about something where direct experience is lacking and ideology is less relevant, e.g., where to buy a house, then I might use statistics to inform my decision, recognizing that stats are only a more-or-less accurate abstraction and not fully representative of reality.  

When it comes to crime in StL, the stats mostly don't match my direct experience, which my ideology suggests is because police and their bosses manipulate them for varying reasons and by varying means. On the other hand, I know enough about statistics to realize that the mismatch could also just be a unit of analysis error on my part--the stats cover the whole city whereas my experience is limited to mine and surrounding neighborhoods and thus both are accurate and informative in their own way.

Good thing we have data by all 79 city neighborhoods, police district and city as a whole.
Generally from experience (since we don't have data) local police don't tend to undercount crime as their motive is to usually have a pissing match with the Mayors office and recording all crime tends to make their case for more money better.
Data manipulation in crime stats can usually be spotted- people leave, retire , change roles etc and next person may not be so inclined to risk picking up a criminal offense

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

^curious to know what data you’re looking at because the overwhelming numbers from the mid 90’d to 2016 support that more police and enforcement was a major factor in lower crime rates. Broken Windows was not an anomaly.

Check out the research regarding the drop in crime rates and banning lead in gasoline. and paint.

^There was a bunch of things happening society-wide, including the unleaded gasoline effect--during the heyday of broken windows policing in NYC, for example, that help explain the drop in crime. I'll grant that maybe Broken Windows tactics made some marginal difference in some places, but what's clear is that crime declined nationally in nearly all urban areas, including those that did not adopt a broken windows approach. I tend to believe policing is like any other service; you get what you pay for, and there are tradeoffs between quantity and quality. Where do you think SLMPD falls indexes?

^^When I say manipulate, I don't mean actively reporting false numbers in a conspiratorial fashion, I'm more referring to errors of omission, like crimes not being reported by residents to police, police choosing not to write reports in response to calls, misidentifying what crime took place and where (made even harder by the jurisdictional overlaps between City/County/Metro/Muni/Etc.), and so on.  I think your reasoning re cop's incentive to goose stats is correct, at least in theory, but I also think they tend toward laziness and apathy in reality.

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

^curious to know what data you’re looking at because the overwhelming numbers from the mid 90’d to 2016 support that more police and enforcement was a major factor in lower crime rates. Broken Windows was not an anomaly.

I was referencing the data that COVID killed and hospitalized more Americans the past two years than violent crime by orders of magnitude, and we responded by defunding vaccines to give cops raises (gotta hire more cops to replace all the ones who died from #1 cop-killer COVID I guess).

But regarding broken windows there's this famous case study: https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09 ... e-dropped/

SB in BH wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

^^When I say manipulate, I don't mean actively reporting false numbers in a conspiratorial fashion, I'm more referring to errors of omission, like crimes not being reported by residents to police, police choosing not to write reports in response to calls, misidentifying what crime took place and where (made even harder by the jurisdictional overlaps between City/County/Metro/Muni/Etc.), and so on.  I think your reasoning re cop's incentive to goose stats is correct, at least in theory, but I also think they tend toward laziness and apathy in reality.

But that's a fairly constant variable year after year and when you see dramatic changes like for example traffic violations in 2020 declining, its Covid = less driving = less stops and cops reducing interaction with residents due to covid. 

^Sure, but that's my point: Statistics can be more or less reliable as a proxy for what's happening in reality and can be useful for understanding it, i.e. formulating and testing hypotheses etc., but if they don't mesh with my personal experience then I'm inclined to either a) discount their relevancy or b) look for explanations of why stats might be wrong. 

To your point about stable trends v. dramatic changes, it could be that crime is always better/worse than reflected in the official stats but that the variance is stable and predictable enough that trend analysis, like declining crime rates, is reliable. Nonetheless, if you tell me violent crime is down x percent, but I still hear gunfire on a nightly basis, then I'm inclined to conclude that violent crime has not improved and that something else is going on that isn't captured by the data.

MarkHaversham wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Jun 16, 2022

^curious to know what data you’re looking at because the overwhelming numbers from the mid 90’d to 2016 support that more police and enforcement was a major factor in lower crime rates. Broken Windows was not an anomaly.

I was referencing the data that COVID killed and hospitalized more Americans the past two years than violent crime by orders of magnitude, and we responded by defunding vaccines to give cops raises (gotta hire more cops to replace all the ones who died from #1 cop-killer COVID I guess).

But regarding broken windows there's this famous case study: https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09 ... e-dropped/

Chill. We got this. $88B for next pandemic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-un ... 21262.html

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05 ... sponse/amp

I actually appreciate your lighthearted approach to this madness. You have a future in politics. I'll be your wingman, you know, if you want to make some REAL money. Lmk

Until we decentralize power from DC and government in general we're all f*cked.