Exactly. If someone were to offer a parking lot owner a nice bag of cash, they may be more willing to sell as any cash revenue for the year is going to be next to nothing. My assumption is that owners of these lots are either families, individuals, or businesses that view them as long term investments. Low cost, minimal maintenance, and consistent cash revenue every summer when the Cardinals play. BUT I don't think any owners are going to go bankrupt. Could just be a nice nudge to get them to sell, even if they still demand something more than market rate.
FWIW there has been a huge jump in rental to air bnb conversions in Soulard and Benton Park over the last few years. I don't know to what extent that is increasing housing cost in those two neighborhoods specifically, but I'd imagine it is having some impact. Soulard in particular seems to have ideal conditions for an air bnb boom.
^there has also been a large increase in the total number of units in Soulard in the past few years, with the opening of the Steelyard and the Russell apartment buildings. I wonder if on net that was a gain or not.
^That's a very good point, and the IceHouse too on a smaller scale. You'd think it would almost have to be a net gain, right? And if it was a net gain does that swamp whatever impact the increase in air bnb's had?
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The increase in AirBnBs makes sense when you consider the complete lack of actual hotels within or within easy walking distance to Soulard.
Soulard is a big destination for tourists and the bachelor/bachelorette party crowd.
Soulard is a big destination for tourists and the bachelor/bachelorette party crowd.
Yep. And people in town for the weekend for baseball too. You can eat, bar hop, catch a shuttle to the game and back, and then repeat steps one and two.
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On March 16th, the gym in my building closed due to covid (still closed because after 3 months of doing nothing they decided to renovate it on the first day the City allowed gyms to open)....anyway- i took up walking after it closed and a 114 days later i've covered 1820 miles across the City (about 16 miles a day) most i've done in a week was 132. Couple observations from the journey; 1st- our pedestrian infrastructure sucks...even for an able bodied person. I've had dozens and dozens close calls with drivers running me over (punched a few cars as they gone by, only broke one window). 2nd- ive been to parts of the city that i would have never seen driving...so many short cuts that you cant take a car through. 3rd- after 6 months of 2020, ive driven 2300 miles and walked 2400.
This article mentions the work from home trend, but I can't help thinking that all of the unrest in US cities these days is also pushing more people to the suburbs.
"Flight to suburbs boosts U.S. home building"
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... c7c53.html
"Flight to suburbs boosts U.S. home building"
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... c7c53.html
I really think that St. Louis with all of its relatively low-density urban neighborhoods can greatly benefit from this. In relative terms, we are having a great lockdown period at our Tower Grove home: backyard, able to walk to the park, etc. especially compared to our friends in NYC or SF who are locked in their apartments.
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How the ‘15-Minute City’ Could Help Post-Pandemic Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... d-recovery
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Thought this data was interesting. Rental asking prices have fallen off a cliff in cities like SF (-11.1%) and Seattle (-7.4%) over the last year. At the same time, St. Louis has seen a 15.2% increase.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/03/rents ... increases/
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https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/03/rents ... increases/
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Has there been a bit of an exodus on the coasts? I know some people that have left NYC because they can't do anything in and are working from home. You always hear that people on the coasts are expats from the midwest.SeattleNative wrote: ↑Aug 03, 2020Thought this data was interesting. Rental asking prices have fallen off a cliff in cities like SF (-11.1%) and Seattle (-7.4%) over the last year. At the same time, St. Louis has seen a 15.2% increase.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/03/rents ... increases/
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^ I highly doubt anyone is making a life changing decision like moving to another city in this time of uncertainty like the last 5 months. Some well off NYC people are spending more time at their summer homes but that’s about it
So for Saint Louis, do we know if the rent increase has been driven primarily by new housing with higher rates (for example, Tower 100 or OCW with higher rent floors and least some $3K+/mo rates driving up the region's average), or is it more that existing rental unit rates are rising (meaning a theoretical John Doe who's been renting a place for years has seen his rates raise from $100/mo to $1150?)
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When you get laid off and find yourself in a very expensive city you might have to make a decision. Demand is down somehow. Maybe lack of tourism is also opening short term rentals.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Aug 03, 2020^ I highly doubt anyone is making a life changing decision like moving to another city in this time of uncertainty like the last 5 months. Some well off NYC people are spending more time at their summer homes but that’s about it
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That's assumes people have cash on hand to break their current leases and then the ability to pay to move across the country / get approved for a new lease without having a job. Not many places will sell you a house or rent you an apartment if you're unemployed.
I disagree somewhat. Cities like Austin and Nashville have been hot for CA moves for a long time. People already on the fence now have a great reason to jump over.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Aug 03, 2020^ I highly doubt anyone is making a life changing decision like moving to another city in this time of uncertainty like the last 5 months. Some well off NYC people are spending more time at their summer homes but that’s about it
Cities like STL are a bit different. We may not get soo many "unconnected" relocations but there are boatloads of people living on the coasts who grew up here. Returning to your home city and the benefit of being close to family is something I'd expect a lot of people to seek out.
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Any conjecture as to why superstar cities are recovering much slower than the US as a whole thus far? For all the talk that their strongly diversified economies would pull them out of this faster than the rest of the country, it’s not happening so far.
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I think the answer is in the article itself:
Based upon these facts, I think we can assume that these major cities saw less layoffs of higher wage workers / industries. So instead of hiring back off to regain some workers who were let go, they're just not hiring new workers. I don't believe this is any sign that larger cities are seeing decline due to any corporate strategies to leave these cities for other markets. Just a freeze / pause of hiring until corporations feel more comfortable with long term economic demand.Job postings for higher-wage occupations have fallen the most. Initially, postings in higher-wage occupations fell less than those in middle- and lower-wage occupations, but have subsequently lagged. Postings in higher-wage occupations are now 26% below trend, versus 8% below trend for lower-wage occupations.
This pattern is different from the trend in employment. Bureau of Labor Statistics data through mid-July show that lower-wage industries have lost the most jobs in the pandemic, by a wide margin. This might be because it is more expensive and often takes longer to fire and hire higher wage workers. Lower-wage industries like retail and food service might adjust their workforces in response to month-to-month or even week-to-week changes in demand. But higher-wage industries like tech and finance might plan their headcounts based on what they expect demand to look like longer-term, in future quarters or years.
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Laife Fulk wrote:I think the answer is in the article itself:
Based upon these facts, I think we can assume that these major cities saw less layoffs of higher wage workers / industries. So instead of hiring back off to regain some workers who were let go, they're just not hiring new workers. I don't believe this is any sign that larger cities are seeing decline due to any corporate strategies to leave these cities for other markets. Just a freeze / pause of hiring until corporations feel more comfortable with long term economic demand.Job postings for higher-wage occupations have fallen the most. Initially, postings in higher-wage occupations fell less than those in middle- and lower-wage occupations, but have subsequently lagged. Postings in higher-wage occupations are now 26% below trend, versus 8% below trend for lower-wage occupations.
This pattern is different from the trend in employment. Bureau of Labor Statistics data through mid-July show that lower-wage industries have lost the most jobs in the pandemic, by a wide margin. This might be because it is more expensive and often takes longer to fire and hire higher wage workers. Lower-wage industries like retail and food service might adjust their workforces in response to month-to-month or even week-to-week changes in demand. But higher-wage industries like tech and finance might plan their headcounts based on what they expect demand to look like longer-term, in future quarters or years.
From the guy who wrote the article. He seems to think this is impacting big cities worse than the country at large. Though you did pull a good section from that article.
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Right, but my point is that this is probably due to low wage positions being impacted at a higher proportion than higher wage positions in the largest markets. So a lot of tourism and hospitality cuts could account for a large part of that difference and probably won’t see any recovery for some time.
Large cities aren’t seeing any new job postings for their high end wage positions + the cut a TON more on the low end wages. Tourism will bounce back eventually when vaccinations are possible (even if it’s 2 years from now), but until that happens the data for large cities is going to look like what you posted.
Large cities aren’t seeing any new job postings for their high end wage positions + the cut a TON more on the low end wages. Tourism will bounce back eventually when vaccinations are possible (even if it’s 2 years from now), but until that happens the data for large cities is going to look like what you posted.
Thinking this through to possible ramifications / outcomes, I don't see any major migration of lower wage workers from larger cities to mid size or smaller cities. Even if there's some benefits from a lower cost of living, if there aren't jobs for workers to move for, then there's really no benefit to them. Smaller market cities like St. Louis just don't have jobs available in many of these industries. And by that I mean a substantial amount of jobs where the current local unemployed workforce exceeds the demand from businesses.
Even if some mid or high wage earners are able to work remotely permanently and decide to relocate for cost of living benefits, it would take years for any increase in population to actually impact retail, restaurant, and hospitality employment needs.
Even if some mid or high wage earners are able to work remotely permanently and decide to relocate for cost of living benefits, it would take years for any increase in population to actually impact retail, restaurant, and hospitality employment needs.
On top of that, I'd add that most people underestimate how costly it is to move, not just financially but also in terms of social capital.
Unless you are “moving home” or moving to a city full of coastal expats (Nashville, Austin, etc).kipfilet wrote:On top of that, I'd add that most people underestimate how costly it is to move, not just financially but also in terms of social capital.
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