The Urban Theory Thread

imperialmog · PostAug 15, 2020#6012020-08-15T23:33+00:00

Is there any concern that the events of the past year may signal an end to urbanization trends and causes a return to suburban sprawl? Related to that could be that many cities start to lose their luster, possibly a lot and return to the bad old days with many people leaving.

One trend I could see is urban style living in smaller communities. One place i've seen a decent amount of infill development and densification is in Washington, MO. There has been a constant construction of rowhouses and mixed use buildings going in block by block in the downtown area. Also due to historic area designations and building codes all the buildings are brick.

I'm not sure if many other towns in the metro have gone this way or can. It likely helps having an Amtrak station and riverfront to draw some appeal.

SeattleNative · PostAug 16, 2020#6022020-08-16T02:04+00:00

imperialmog wrote:Is there any concern that the events of the past year may signal an end to urbanization trends and causes a return to suburban sprawl? Related to that could be that many cities start to lose their luster, possibly a lot and return to the bad old days with many people leaving.

One trend I could see is urban style living in smaller communities. One place i've seen a decent amount of infill development and densification is in Washington, MO. There has been a constant construction of rowhouses and mixed use buildings going in block by block in the downtown area. Also due to historic area designations and building codes all the buildings are brick.

I'm not sure if many other towns in the metro have gone this way or can. It likely helps having an Amtrak station and riverfront to draw some appeal.

Recent Zillow data doesn’t really see any trend towards suburbanization outside of SF and NYC. There is a huge trend in those two places, and I’d bet that has to do more with affordability than style preference in those two places.

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ldai_phs · PostAug 16, 2020#6032020-08-16T02:15+00:00

Time will tell what happens here.

framer · PostAug 17, 2020#6042020-08-17T01:40+00:00

FWIW, "New York City is Dead Forever":

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-y ... eid=yhoof2

symphonicpoet · PostAug 17, 2020#6052020-08-17T06:26+00:00

^I almost hate to say this, but . . . good. New York had become a Disneyfied caricature of itself. Maybe now it can get its soul back and become a place worth being again, and not merely someplace fancy people have a second home. Mind you, I don't blame New Yorkers for this. I think it's probably hurt the average schmo from New York as much as anyone trapped outside. Instead I blame the fancy people. Never before in the history of mankind have so few taken so much from so many. Spreading it back out can only help all of us.

flipz · PostAug 17, 2020#6062020-08-17T13:51+00:00

framer wrote: ↑
Aug 17, 2020
FWIW, "New York City is Dead Forever":

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-y ... eid=yhoof2

Thanks for the article. So there was an exodus of around 420k people in NYC.

leeharveyawesome · PostAug 17, 2020#6072020-08-17T23:26+00:00

flipz wrote: ↑
Aug 17, 2020
framer wrote: ↑
Aug 17, 2020
FWIW, "New York City is Dead Forever":

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-y ... eid=yhoof2
Thanks for the article. So there was an exodus of around 420k people in NYC.

So, that's like the entire City of St. Louis moving out of NYC plus 100K. Word is already out that NYC is "cheap" now. It will attract buyers. New York gonna be New York. Add the fact that much of the office space will be converted to residential because those jobs are gone for good the prices are going to drop. Bigly. Might be time for a Manhattan pied a terre.

dbInSouthCity · PostAug 18, 2020#6082020-08-18T01:49+00:00

California has been “dead” for a decade and it’s managed to have a net of 715 people more per day for 3650 days now

sc4mayor · PostAug 25, 2020#6092020-08-25T02:29+00:00

Nicklaus: Is the pandemic making Americans flee cities? The numbers say no
https://www.stltoday.com/business/colum ... d463c.html

House prices in urban ZIP codes are rising at about the same pace as those in suburbia. Both types of neighborhoods are adding value faster than they were in February, before the pandemic. Urban and suburban houses alike are selling more quickly than they did pre-coronavirus. The proportion of sales that happen above list price is similar.

In metro St. Louis, prices are accelerating fastest in urban ZIP codes. As of June, Zillow shows urban house values here up 6.4% in the past year, well above the pre-pandemic pace of 4.1%. Suburban values rose 3.2% in June, up from 2.9% in February.

In a few places, the numbers do support the flight-to-suburbia story. Home values in Manhattan have fallen 4.2% in the past year and homes are taking almost two months longer to sell than they did last summer. San Francisco is a similar story, with list prices down 4.9%.

That’s not happening in most cities, though. “Everywhere else, there’s a shortage of houses on the market,” Tucker said. “Houses are selling fast, and above list price. That doesn’t really bear out that demand must be declining for urban living.”

“People recognize that a lot of things like restaurants, sports and live music, the lifestyle reasons to live in the city, are on hold right now,” Tucker added. “But most people buying homes are thinking of a five-year or longer time horizon, and most people expect those things to come back by then.”

Trololzilla · PostAug 26, 2020#6102020-08-26T06:57+00:00

Be cool to see some of these around the city, provided they're paired with an organization that cleans them several times a day as these are. Could even install some that are altered slightly to serve as shower stalls for the homeless or something similar. I expect drug issues would likely preclude their installation anywhere in the U.S., unfortunately.

dbInSouthCity · PostAug 26, 2020#6112020-08-26T12:43+00:00

Trololzilla wrote: ↑
Aug 26, 2020
Be cool to see some of these around the city, provided they're paired with an organization that cleans them several times a day as these are. Could even install some that are altered slightly to serve as shower stalls for the homeless or something similar. I expect drug issues would likely preclude their installation anywhere in the U.S., unfortunately.

Let’s hope the stalls don’t lose electricity as someone is using them

quincunx · PostAug 26, 2020#6122020-08-26T13:50+00:00

The Atlantic - Why Every City Feels the Same Now

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... ow/615556/

PostAug 26, 2020#6132020-08-26T13:51+00:00

Strong Towns - Asphalt City: How Parking Ate an American Metropolis

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/202 ... metropolis

PostAug 26, 2020#6142020-08-26T13:52+00:00

^That whole series on Strong Towns about Kansas City is worth a read.

PostAug 29, 2020#6152020-08-29T00:50+00:00

GGWash - Why more and more families in Tysons are calling high-rises home

The focus on direct access to outdoor space may miss the key ingredients for what makes neighborhoods work well for children, including safe streets, safe play spaces, and most importantly, kids. Urban historian Kenneth Jackson has explained “humans are social animals. I think the biggest fake ever perpetrated is that children like, and need, big yards. What children like are other children. If they can have space, well, that’s fine. But most of all, they want to be around other kids. I think we move children to the suburbs to control the children, not to respond to something the children want.”

https://ggwash.org/view/amp/78857

PostAug 29, 2020#6162020-08-29T01:00+00:00

From Village of Euclid v. Ambler Realty Co

https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federa ... on-1931541

"The matter of zoning has received much attention at the hands of commissions and experts, and the results of their investigations have been set forth in comprehensive reports. These reports, which bear every evidence of painstaking consideration, concur in the view that the segregation of residential, business, and industrial buildings will make it easier to provide fire apparatus suitable for the character and intensity of the development in each section; that it will increase the safety and security of home life; greatly tend to prevent street accidents, especially to children, by reducing the traffic and resulting confusion in residential sections; decrease noise and other conditions which produce or intensify nervous disorders; preserve a more favorable environment in which to rear children, etc. With particular reference to apartment houses, it is pointed out that the development of detached house sections is greatly retarded by the coming of apartment houses, which has sometimes resulted in destroying the entire section for private house purposes; that, in such sections, very often the apartment house is a mere parasite, constructed in order to take advantage of the open spaces and attractive surroundings created by the residential character of the district. Moreover, the coming of one apartment house is followed by others, interfering by their height and bulk with the free circulation of air and monopolizing the rays of the sun which otherwise would fall upon the smaller homes, and bringing, as their necessary accompaniments, the disturbing noises incident to increased traffic and business, and the occupation, by means of moving and parked automobiles, of larger portions of the streets, thus detracting from their safety and depriving children of the privilege of quiet and open spaces for play, enjoyed by those in more favored localities -- until, finally, the residential character of the neighborhood and its desirability as a place of detached residences are utterly destroyed. Under these circumstances,

Page 272 U. S. 395

apartment houses, which in a different environment would be not only entirely unobjectionable but highly desirable, come very near to being nuisances.

urban_dilettante · PostAug 29, 2020#6172020-08-29T03:49+00:00

^ too bad they didn't apply the same "parasite" logic to highways.

framer · PostAug 31, 2020#6182020-08-31T16:42+00:00

Pinterest has agreed to pay $90 million to cancel a lease they had signed for future office space in San Francisco:

https://www.sfgate.com/business/article ... 525421.php

ldai_phs · PostSep 01, 2020#6192020-09-01T19:10+00:00

CoStar 2nd Quarter Apartment Absorption Rankings. A few coastal markets made the list despite claims of their collapse.

https://product.costar.com/home/news/shared/1856313910?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=specialreport

SeattleNative · PostSep 01, 2020#6202020-09-01T21:44+00:00

ldai_phs wrote: ↑
Sep 01, 2020
CoStar 2nd Quarter Apartment Absorption Rankings. A few coastal markets made the list despite claims of their collapse.

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Of the cities listed there, DC is perhaps the only city that could be considered a "Superstar City." While there are some coastal cities on there, they are mostly cheaper coastal cities. So I think this speaks to the idea that expensive "Superstar" cities are taking a hit from all of this.

ldai_phs · PostSep 01, 2020#6212020-09-01T21:44+00:00

SeattleNative wrote:
ldai_phs wrote: ↑
Sep 01, 2020
CoStar 2nd Quarter Apartment Absorption Rankings. A few coastal markets made the list despite claims of their collapse.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Of the cities listed there, DC is perhaps the only city that could be considered a "Superstar City." While there are some coastal cities on there, they are mostly cheaper coastal cities. So I think this speaks to the idea that expensive "Superstar" cities are taking a hit from all of this.

Inland Impire is Greater LA right? They do have a graphic that shows the star cities are some of the hardest hit.

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SeattleNative · PostSep 01, 2020#6222020-09-01T21:47+00:00

ldai_phs wrote: ↑
Sep 01, 2020
SeattleNative wrote:
ldai_phs wrote: ↑
Sep 01, 2020
CoStar 2nd Quarter Apartment Absorption Rankings. A few coastal markets made the list despite claims of their collapse.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Of the cities listed there, DC is perhaps the only city that could be considered a "Superstar City." While there are some coastal cities on there, they are mostly cheaper coastal cities. So I think this speaks to the idea that expensive "Superstar" cities are taking a hit from all of this.
Inland Impire is Greater LA right?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes, but its so far inland it's often given its own MSA (Riverside-San Bernardino) and is a completely different culture & cost of living. IE growth is most likely because of LA flight would be my guess before diving into the numbers.

urban_dilettante · PostSep 01, 2020#6232020-09-01T22:43+00:00

ldai_phs wrote: ↑
Sep 01, 2020
CoStar 2nd Quarter Apartment Absorption Rankings. A few coastal markets made the list despite claims of their collapse.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

is this really Urban Theory? seems like another KC promotion that should go in the KC thread.

ldai_phs · PostSep 01, 2020#6242020-09-01T22:45+00:00

urban_dilettante wrote:
ldai_phs wrote: ↑
Sep 01, 2020
CoStar 2nd Quarter Apartment Absorption Rankings. A few coastal markets made the list despite claims of their collapse.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
is this really Urban Theory? seems like another KC promotion that should go in the KC thread.

Posts on real estate trends during corona are most of the recent posts in this thread.

urban_dilettante · PostSep 01, 2020#6252020-09-01T22:50+00:00

^ but this is not "theory". it's an absorption ranking that (surprise, surprise) makes KC look good. is there an accompanying article that actually discusses anything, like all the other articles that have been posted in this thread?

The Urban Theory Thread

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