urbanSTL

For the record/comparrisons:

(2017 final passengers)

St. Louis STL: 14,730,656 (up 5.5%)
Nashville BNA: 14.1 million (up 8.9%)
Austin AUS: 13.8 million (up 11.5%)
New Orleans MSY: 12 million (up 9%)*
Raleigh/Durham RDU: 11.6 million (up 5.6%)
Kansas City MCI: 11.5 million (up 4.5%)
Cleveland CLE: 9.14 million (up 8.5%)**
Pittsburgh PIT: 8.9 million (up 8.9%)
Indianapolis IND: 8.77 million (up 6.2%)
Cincinnati 7.8 CVG: 7.8 million (up 16%)***

*note: MSY say 20 new destinations added in 2017, the largest increase in service since Katrina. The airport added 2 international destinations in 2017.
**note: CLE has first increase since loss of United Hub causing plunge in 2014/2015 with new carriers and additional seats/destinations.
**note: CVG came off of 2015/2016 loss of Delta Hub causing high increase with new carriers and additional seats/destinations.

matguy70 wrote: ↑

Feb 08, 2018

For the record/comparrisons:

(2017 final passengers)

St. Louis STL: 14,730,656 (up 5.5%)
Nashville BNA: 14.1 million (up 8.9%)
Austin AUS: 13.8 million (up 11.5%)
New Orleans MSY: 12 million (up 9%)*
Raleigh/Durham RDU: 11.6 million (up 5.6%)
Kansas City MCI: 11.5 million (up 4.5%)
Cleveland CLE: 9.14 million (up 8.5%)**
Pittsburgh PIT: 8.9 million (up 8.9%)
Indianapolis IND: 8.77 million (up 6.2%)
Cincinnati 7.8 CVG: 7.8 million (up 16%)***

*note: MSY say 20 new destinations added in 2017, the largest increase in service since Katrina. The airport added 2 international destinations in 2017.
**note: CLE has first increase since loss of United Hub causing plunge in 2014/2015 with new carriers and additional seats/destinations.
**note: CVG came off of 2015/2016 loss of Delta Hub causing high increase with new carriers and additional seats/destinations.

Just curious where you got these stats. They don't match the airports release. IND was up 3% per their airport. KC up 4.19% The raw numbers match though. The others might be right I just knew those 2 looked different than what I had saw on other forums.

http://flykci.com/media/1700/stats-2017-december.pdf
https://d1j6zi7czwjuok.cloudfront.net/i ... Report.pdf

rbb wrote: ↑

Feb 07, 2018

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Feb 07, 2018

The December numbers are have been posted. Up 3% for the month

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... PubRel.pdf

Sidenote: If we are up 4.4% next year we will have our highest level since 2003 (which was right before a big pulldown in 2004)

I know I'm being super pedantic, but 4.4% will put us right at about 2007 levels. From the ever-reliable Wikipedia:

Code: Select all

Year	Total Passengers	 % Change
2000	30,558,991	Increase 1.23%
2001	26,695,019	Decrease 12.64%
2002	25,626,114	Decrease 4.00%
2003	20,431,132	Decrease 20.27%
2004	13,396,028	Decrease 34.43%
2005	14,697,263	Increase 9.71%
2006	15,205,944	Increase 3.46%
2007	15,384,557	Increase 1.18%
2008	14,431,471	Decrease 6.20%
2009	12,796,302	Decrease 11.33%
2010	12,331,426	Decrease 3.63%
2011	12,526,150	Increase 1.58%
2012	12,688,726	Increase 1.30%
2013	12,570,128	Decrease 0.94%
2014	12,384,015	Decrease 1.48%
2015	12,752,331	Increase 2.97%
2016	13,959,126	Increase 9.46%
2017	14,730,656	Increase 5.5%

^ a 4.4% increase from 14,730,656 would be 15,378,805 passengers (rounded up to the nearest whole passenger because otherwise **eww**). That's actually just a hair under the 2007 numbers, but close enough to call it even.

Bump that to 4.5% and you're correct; that'd make for 15,393,536 passengers total. Unfortunately there's still a looong way to go to get back to pre-2004 numbers, but yeah, ~4.5% growth should be totally attainable barring something unforeseen.

-RBB

I agree. Our pre-2004 numbers are not realistic without a hub. I would be happy with 20 mil, expansion to few key domestic markets and hopefully 3-5 overseas destination with legacy airlines.

positron wrote: ↑

Feb 08, 2018

rbb wrote: ↑

Feb 07, 2018

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Feb 07, 2018

The December numbers are have been posted. Up 3% for the month

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... PubRel.pdf

Sidenote: If we are up 4.4% next year we will have our highest level since 2003 (which was right before a big pulldown in 2004)

I know I'm being super pedantic, but 4.4% will put us right at about 2007 levels. From the ever-reliable Wikipedia:

Code: Select all

Year	Total Passengers	 % Change
2000	30,558,991	Increase 1.23%
2001	26,695,019	Decrease 12.64%
2002	25,626,114	Decrease 4.00%
2003	20,431,132	Decrease 20.27%
2004	13,396,028	Decrease 34.43%
2005	14,697,263	Increase 9.71%
2006	15,205,944	Increase 3.46%
2007	15,384,557	Increase 1.18%
2008	14,431,471	Decrease 6.20%
2009	12,796,302	Decrease 11.33%
2010	12,331,426	Decrease 3.63%
2011	12,526,150	Increase 1.58%
2012	12,688,726	Increase 1.30%
2013	12,570,128	Decrease 0.94%
2014	12,384,015	Decrease 1.48%
2015	12,752,331	Increase 2.97%
2016	13,959,126	Increase 9.46%
2017	14,730,656	Increase 5.5%

^ a 4.4% increase from 14,730,656 would be 15,378,805 passengers (rounded up to the nearest whole passenger because otherwise **eww**). That's actually just a hair under the 2007 numbers, but close enough to call it even.

Bump that to 4.5% and you're correct; that'd make for 15,393,536 passengers total. Unfortunately there's still a looong way to go to get back to pre-2004 numbers, but yeah, ~4.5% growth should be totally attainable barring something unforeseen.

-RBB

I agree. Our pre-2004 numbers are not realistic without a hub. I would be happy with 20 mil, expansion to few key domestic markets and hopefully 3-5 overseas destination with legacy airlines.

Also there is apples and oranges issues with comparing those numbers due to how less practical shorthaul is now compared to those days. Also its hard to say what Southwest has here now is not a hub, since as much as they say otherwise their operation here is a hub. Though how much larger that can be is another question, especially with having only 737s which makes it hard to go into smaller markets.

It would be real telling what the older numbers and current numbers compare when you only go by local demand and remove connections. Its also telling a lot of the local demand was to short destinations in that time which aren't feasible now due to TSA and lower speed limits. If i recall i saw a list of 2000 top O&D markets from here, and of the top 25 airports 1 in 6 people of that group was just going to/from Chicago airports and demand is less than half of that a few years ago and even lower now most likely.

Since airport privatization has been in the news, here's a piece I wrote about it and privatization in general:

https://inmostcity.com/index.php/2018/0 ... ic-assets/

matguy70 wrote: ↑

Feb 10, 2018

I produced those numbers above from looking at January 2018 news releases from the cities media.
For example: Indianapolis: http://fox59.com/2018/01/25/indianapoli ... ring-2017/

So I compiled the list accordingly.

Thanks for the link. That says 3 percent for Indy like I thought. I just wanted to make sure I wasn't looking at something wrong.

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Feb 08, 2018

matguy70 wrote: ↑

Feb 08, 2018

Frontier has no reason to really expand here - although it could happen. Their routes are in conflict with what we already offer.

What were St. Louis MidAmerica's 2017 numbers(anyone) - and if we add those numbers to STL International where do we stand for the metro region?

I wish Allegiant would leave MidAmerica and join Lambert.

They were at 221,000 as of the end of November according to the airport director. I am fine with them being at BLV. It saves them money and that airport needs someone to give it business. The people on the IL side seem to use it because they keep adding flights. If it is working then just leave it alone.

Frontier wise I don't see some big expansion but every route they run goes against someone else. I wouldn't say that is going to scare them off to run on a route someone else runs if they think they can make money on it.

F9’s network, strategy and value proposition is going into markets with established players and skimming the lowest, most discretionary and marginal passengers but bringing people into the terminals who otherwise wouldn’t fly is certainly part of their customer base. Network planning dart board approach, so to speak, certainly considers (and pursues) opportunistic routes with abatements and marketing assistance but their latest pivot is towards going into large markets with scale, volume and thus room for segmentation. That’s why they’ve also moved away from the higher CASM A318/319 aircraft that were the backbone of their fleet as DEN centered hub and spoke carrier towards a larger, lower CASM A320/321 fleet.

Much of the flying they have in STL is timed around a utilization play after their CUN and other Apple Vacation (?) flying when the fleet would otherwise sit idle. Great for people who place a low value on their time and are willing and able to stomach a 3:30pm flight to LAS on F9.

New Southwest extension

Hartford, CT 1x daily added.

EDIT

I went through the entire STL schedule.

BDL 1x daily
SFO goes to 2x daily on Sunday
PHL goes from 2x to 3x daily
Panama City goes from daily to Saturday only (it ended in August last year)
Charleston, SC goes away for the season (last year it went from daily to Saturday/Sunday only in August last year)

Down 1 weekly daily total from the Summer schedule to 114 but up 9 from last year for this extension
(last year it went down 5 daily to 105 on this extension)

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Feb 15, 2018

New Southwest extension

Hartford, CT 1x daily added.

This seems like a very logical add for being one of the largest unserved markets based on demand. Also seems well timed for flyers there heading west as an alternate connecting point relieving Midway. (also Midway is much more prone to delays in winter) Is it just as well timed going east?

Updated my 2018 Load Factor Spreadsheet with the November numbers.

I never really noticed until now how low the LFs are for pretty much anywhere north of a line from BNA-TUL in Jan and Feb. Some places have mid 80 for the year with 60s or lower for Jan/Feb. I knew those months were slow but not THAT slow.

Notes
STL-CVG on DL seems to be getting better. They must be timing connections better. Prices have also been lowered recently so maybe that is helping
STL-SAN on WN is over 90% on average for the year. October was over 97.5% on the outbound. Crazy to see how fast that has grown from being seasonal just a couple years ago. Now it is 2 or 3 times a day. AS started their route there in December so it will be interesting to see how that goes.
STL-PDX on WN also having some months above 95%. I will be curious to see if that ever goes to 2x daily seasonally.

All Stats at this link

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Feb 20, 2018

Due to an expected increase in international traffic, the Customs Conveyor System located in the
International Arrivals area of Terminal 2 is being replaced. Completion is expected in the spring
of 2018. More announcements coming soon?

Maybe (hopefully), but at first glance I'd say that's most likely in reference to WOW starting operations in May, no?

-RBB

Some food for thought

IndyStar - Indy's streets are so bad, making them 'fair' would take 10 times the current budget

But the city doesn't have any large assets left to sell, such as the utility or the parking meters,

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/201 ... 324044002/

Trololzilla wrote: ↑

Feb 21, 2018

Oof... it took a lot of last night, but the Wiki page is *mostly* back to where it was, in case anyone here was concerned.

What happened to it?

Something going on at the airport.

Unusual scene...Emergency equip on runway at @flystl and St. Louis Police not letting anyone on @united flights leave terminal w/o checking their boarding pass. Never seen that before.
Searching for someone?

^ Delta had an emergency last night:

http://fox2now.com/2018/02/21/delta-fli ... id-flight/

A Delta flight returned to St. Louis International Airport around 6:45 pm Wednesday night. The flight had been bound for Atlanta when the plane turned around as a precaution when the pilot heard something during mid-flight.

Emergency vehicles met the plane at a gate. Firefighters on the ground did a visual check of the plane.

The plane is also going through a security check.

Passengers were taken off the plane and are being rescreened for a later flight that is expected to leave around 12:30 am.

Not a surprise since they added an extra flight to the schedule a month or so ago but here is a confirmation of strong sales.


WOW said it would add service in three other Midwest cities when it announced service in Cincinnati in August, including St. Louis, Cleveland and Detroit. CVG to date has had the second-strongest ticket sales behind St. Louis, Spann said. WOW added a fifth weekly flight in that market in January.

https://www.wcpo.com/news/insider/wow-a ... stinations

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Feb 20, 2018

From the January Board Meeting.

A project has been bid to expand the F checkpoint in Terminal 2, adding an additional security
lane on the west side of the ticketing lobby. Additionally, the Airport is contemplating
relocating the outside check—in desk 100 yards to the west of its current location, which will
regulate the traffic flow more efficiently.

Due to an expected increase in international traffic, the Customs Conveyor System located in the
International Arrivals area of Terminal 2 is being replaced. Completion is expected in the spring
of 2018. More announcements coming soon?

In response to a question regarding whether Concourse D, which connects the two terminals,
could be reopened, the Chairperson responded that there have been conversations regarding the
matter, but it would be dependent on whether Southwest Airlines or other airlines request
expansion into that area. In that event, the Airport would renovate additional gate areas, along
with the moving walkways, and reopen the connecting concourse.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... inutes.pdf

Pretty sure the “expected increase” at this point is WW/KEF and WN/CUN. Remember these are public meeting minutes from an open meeting IMO you are reading too much into this.

The question on UA mainline to IAH sCO hubs I checked Diio and all I could find was CO 735 that ended in late 2004, otherwise it has been almost exclusively Express Jet ER4s, until mid-2015 when the Mesa E75s came online; but the ER4 has long been the backbone of the sCO operation at STL. EWR also has been overwhelmingly ER4s, also operated by ExpressJet but for about seven months in 2011 there was a daily 737-700.

ORD is just an operational staging play for frequency and to cycle GoJet and Trans States aircraft between their STL and ORD bases, although UAs operational performance absolutely blows in this market compared to AA or even WN not surprisingly.

Did anyone see Lyda's tweet? Actually interested to see how DL responds to Georgia's NRA attack.