urbanSTL

This is a little off subject however I'm curious to know some of your opinions.. Out of these major cities that i'll list that have lost constant populations which one or few is poised to experience some growth to decent/modest growth in population

Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Detroit
St.Louis
Cleveland
Baltimore
Buffalo

I know Detroit often use's comeback in its reinventions a lot but which city within the next 10-20 years will be heralded as the true comeback city?

St.Louis1764 wrote:This is a little off subject however I'm curious to know some of your opinions.. Out of these major cities that i'll list that have lost constant populations which one or few is poised to experience some growth to decent/modest growth in population

Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Detroit
St.Louis
Cleveland
Baltimore
Buffalo

I know Detroit often use's comeback in its reinventions a lot but which city within the next 10-20 years will be heralded as the true comeback city?

I'm betting on St. Louis. The projects announced so far will lead us in to an era where we come back. It's very possible. We have the land and an emerging market for residential and Office space, all we need to do is market it and boom, our city comes back and continues to grow and will continue to grow


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Census already estimates Cincinnati and Baltimore have grown slightly since 2010... Saint Louis a slight drop and Pittsburgh an even slighter drop. Cleveland and Detroit also have much improved trends from last decade. So my answer is all of them can see at least modest growth in the coming years.

Definitely for Saint Louis, and probably for all of them, at least for the rest of the decade the issue largely will be whether enough new people moving into the re-populating areas overcome the continued abandonment of the decaying areas. One big advantage Baltimore has is its on the east coast and can really benefit from D.C.'s heated growth.

^ I think that pretty much sums up the Rust Belt. It simply has not had the population growth that rest of the country has enjoyed and not anywhere near Southeast/Florida, Southwest or the West Coast/California. Without the population growth it will be tough see anything more then pockets of urban infill/development such as your CWE/Central Corridor and more sprawl in areas with plenty of cheap land available with states more then willing to build the roads without any long term thought that you see in St. Louis.

The only difference is enough roads have been built and pipes into the ground that the maintenance cost of all this infrastructure is finally having a meaningful impact on at least slowing down the build out. Hasn't changed the mentality but first you have to quit adding when you got plenty to use already and even more already to maintain.

Pittsburgh has been getting a lot of love lately. I think they have a stronger employment base in their downtown but im gonna be a homer and pick STL.

Really think more jobs is the key to getting downtown on a more secure footing. Some interesting stuff in this article about incentives and Gilbert's bringing jobs to downtown Detroit..

http://www.freep.com/story/money/busine ... /95198306/

That map shows where Gilbert’s Quicken Loans employees live in Detroit. Before he moved Quicken downtown in 2010, only about 75 of his employees lived within Detroit’s borders. Today, about 3,500 live in the city, Gilbert says.

According to a map released by Quicken, a big cluster of its employees live in the downtown and Midtown districts. But many others live in northwest Detroit, on the far east side, in the Villages district near Belle Isle, and indeed almost everywhere except for those blank spots on the map near the former City Airport or in Delray in southwest Detroit where demolition and abandonment has left widespread urban prairie.



I think the slow but steady addition of residents helps attract new biz, but the pace is slower and not as great as when you see an infusion of jobs also stimulating more residents. Whether it's by a couple big moves, accumulation of start-ups and organic growth, or a combo, the sooner we can get thousands of more workers downtown the better.

^ While I think more jobs are certainly important, I think adding a lot more residents is more important.


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I vote for jobs.

^ better vote again cause downtown2007 is trying to sneak in two votes!

We have doubled down on employment in the CBD from 1950-2000 and what do we have to show for in?

In contrast residential growth has boomed over the last decade and has made downtown a livelier place. Residents have made it a neighborhood and working more actively to address problems thank any corporation has.

Both are very very important but residents get the nod.


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It's like deja vu all over again.

^

downtown2007 wrote:Both are very very important but residents get the nod.


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not really understanding this debate. seems pretty clear that downtown jobs would encourage residential growth at a faster rate than we are currently seeing.

^ I agree but I've seen some comment that adding more residents is what is needed to lure more employers. In my ideal world, Downtown West would lean towards residential and be our version of Cincy's Over-the-Rhine with growing residential and neat retail, etc. and the CBD would be a robust jobs-centric node with mixed-uses. And I think we can reach that more quickly with more jobs fueling things... without them I fear things will just continue to be a slow-go and we potentially risk residential decline.

urban_dilettante wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:Both are very very important but residents get the nod.


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not really understanding this debate. seems pretty clear that downtown jobs would encourage residential growth at a faster rate than we are currently seeing.

Maybe, maybe not. I have worked at some of the largest downtown employers and very few live downtown. So while important, I don't view it as a magic bullet to residential growth.

Have to make it an attractive place to live first which residents are currently doing. And yeah, more residents will result in more jobs.



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We have a 1.4 million-square-foot office building that's about to be vacated.

We need jobs.

downtown2007 wrote:

urban_dilettante wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:Both are very very important but residents get the nod.


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not really understanding this debate. seems pretty clear that downtown jobs would encourage residential growth at a faster rate than we are currently seeing.

Maybe, maybe not. I have worked at some of the largest downtown employers and very few live downtown. So while important, I don't view it as a magic bullet to residential growth.

Have to make it an attractive place to live first which residents are currently doing. And yeah, more residents will result in more jobs.



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we're talking about the attractiveness of a downtown without the investment of major employers and all the associated benefits (more street life than due to residents alone, more commercial activity than due to residents alone, occupied and maintained office buildings, a larger source of revenue for infrastructure improvements), versus the attractiveness of a downtown without those benefits. i'm really not seeing your point. also not going to get into an argument for the sake of argument. no offense but seems pretty clear to me.

I believe that once the AT&T tower goes onto the abandoned list, a developer will see it as a opportunity to move in and rearrange the building. That building will probably stay abandoned for a year and be purchased and reopen before 2020. The Millennium hotel will remain abandoned until then. Railway Exchange will get a new life this upcoming year when plans are announced and the Mercantile Library will also see new life along with the Chemical Building


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downtown2007 wrote:. And yeah, more residents will result in more jobs.

Then why has downtown continued to lose jobs the last 10 years while every year we have gained residents. I finally threw in the towel and am listing my place for sale because i could not find a job downtown and honeslty if you dont work down there i see no benefit to living there.

So yes its time for jobs now

bigmclargehuge wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:. And yeah, more residents will result in more jobs.

Then why has downtown continued to lose jobs the last 10 years while every year we have gained residents. I finally threw in the towel and am listing my place for sale because i could not find a job downtown and honeslty if you dont work down there i see no benefit to living there.

So yes its time for jobs now

Probably only 10% that live downtown, work downtown and are quite happy living downtown.

The original discussion was about what's more important for downtown, jobs or residents. I said residents as well as the far majority in a social media poll. That doesn't mean I don't thing jobs aren't important because they are. If downtown didn't populate with residents over the past 10 years it would be a waste land and probably lost jobs at a higher rate than it has.

As a matter of fact, if you look at any downtown across America they are becoming more of a place to live than work.


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If you want density of people (meaning, more people walking the streets), it has to be jobs.

On a people/square foot basis, jobs wins by a long shot. An easy visualization is imagining how many office cubes could fit in the average loft. Now, do the opposite, as may happen with the AT&T building. It's just way less people .

Not saying ignore residents at all, but jobs should be the priority.

This is a tricky question. I would say that jobs are more important, but with the current climate of our downtown, i think we need to add more residents before the jobs start following. Hopefully in another decade some of those companies that set up shop out in the burbs will realize the benefit and value of having a presence downtown, where alot of their young workforce lives.

Per Mayor Slay, there were 150 buildings vacant downtown 16 years ago. Now it's less then two dozen. Unfortunately when you have massive vacant buildings like AT&T that's going to be an issue but not sure how they lure businesses downtown. The only good news it is cheaper rent wise but businesses need to follow

cardinalstl wrote:This is a tricky question. I would say that jobs are more important, but with the current climate of our downtown, i think we need to add more residents before the jobs start following. Hopefully in another decade some of those companies that set up shop out in the burbs will realize the benefit and value of having a presence downtown, where alot of their young workforce lives.

Bingo. A heavy focus on living and jobs should follow.

And let's not forget about the importance of visitors/tourists. They being in new money to the area and spend a lot at bars and restaurants.

Currently I would rank them from most important as residents, tourists/visitors, jobs. That hopefully changes in 5-10 years with jobs being the main focus.

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I think a great solution is creating more buildings like 720 olive - office space and residential. why settle for single use buildings with a ground floor of retail. thats how downtowns become dead after 5pm. AT&T buildings, for example, should be retofitted as mostly office space, with hotels marketed as "along the gateway mall steps from the blues, the cardinals, the arch, and the convention center", residences (condos and apartments) with the best views of the city, and they can keep the lame mall on the bottom floor lobby area and it would be the most active building in the city next to the chase.

look, im sure someone has said that before, but my point is there is no reason to have a one track mind for downtown development. All of these buildings should have several uses. That is how we get an active downtown. Use any city you want as a comparison, their best blocks look like that.