urbanSTL

^^ & ^ Agree, do it!

goat, I love those beaches in SW FL, so much so that I bought a small place where I can escape when winter becomes too tedious. I could never live down there full time, neighborhoods are too transient for me plus the constant seasonal flux of tourists would drive me crazy when commuting or shopping, so I rent it out on VRBO when not there. Best of both worlds.

August Numbers
St. Louis BLS Seasonally Adjusted:
2,000 added in August.
16,500 added since January.
24,200 added sine last August.

Manufacturing is up 3.4% YoY
Professional and Business Services is up 2.4% YoY
Education and Health are up 1.7% YoY
Leisure and Hospitality is up 8.6% YoY
Other Services are up 7% YoY

Information is down 1.7% YoY (7% above pre-COVID)
Finance is down 0.8% YoY (5% above pre-COVID)
Construction is down 3.4% YoY (2% above pre-COVID)

addxb2 wrote:Of 396 MSAs, St. Louis ranks 186 for YoY (October 2022 to October 2023) change in labor force at 1.61% or 23,683.

That’s ahead of Kansas City (#206, 1.41%), Seattle (#205, 0.92%), Minneapolis (#242, 0.92%), Los Angeles (#277, 0.53%), Denver (#306, 0.16%).

Of the 36 MSAs with more than 1 million people in the labor force, St. Louis ranks 15th by percentage and 18th by raw number. The largest increases occurred in Dallas (177,681 added), Tampa (67,557 added), and Detroit (79,193 added). The biggest losses occurred in Portland, Oregon (11,119 lost), Pittsburgh (8,782 lost), and Chicago (26,374 lost).

Which data source? Labor Statistics?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

^ ^ the individual story is my wife's ATT job is getting relocated next year to Dallas, TX w option of Seattle or Atlanta if requested (she used to work at 909 Chestnut once upon a time before we moved out west).   She along with her St. Louis coworkers are supposed to get formal notification in 3-4 months.   A few in her group that work in St. Louis are talking about retiring or staying put and forgo ATT job.   Other coworkers that worked in Chicago Area already had there jobs relocated earlier this year.

ldai_phs wrote:

addxb2 wrote:Of 396 MSAs, St. Louis ranks 186 for YoY (October 2022 to October 2023) change in labor force at 1.61% or 23,683.

That’s ahead of Kansas City (#206, 1.41%), Seattle (#205, 0.92%), Minneapolis (#242, 0.92%), Los Angeles (#277, 0.53%), Denver (#306, 0.16%).

Of the 36 MSAs with more than 1 million people in the labor force, St. Louis ranks 15th by percentage and 18th by raw number. The largest increases occurred in Dallas (177,681 added), Tampa (67,557 added), and Detroit (79,193 added). The biggest losses occurred in Portland, Oregon (11,119 lost), Pittsburgh (8,782 lost), and Chicago (26,374 lost).

Which data source? Labor Statistics?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t01.htm

Just looking at the overall numbers is interesting. 

LA vs NYC have pretty similar sized MSA populations but a huge difference in employment numbers.
Dallas with ~4.3M jobs vs Chicago with a much bigger MSA at ~4.7 

^ agree.   I found the bottom of the list pretty interesting as well.   Memphis struggling but believe TN as whole was one of the states as one of the top population gainers in latest census, 4th or 5th believe (got a coworker saying he had enough of FL and moving family to TN, east end of state near the mountains).   Even more evident to Memphis is how St. Louis, Cincy and Indy are doing in comparison.  I wonder if TN is becoming the next retiree state with big gains in movers but those that are not coming for jobs is my take 

At same time, Has Denver peaked?  Made some trips last spring and the boom is very evident but at some time wasn't impressed on how it is happening as a lot of these standalone, houses crammed together out of the middle of nowhere developments did not look appealing from either a suburban or urban setting IMO.   Could say same for Salt Lake, Maybe?

Finally, near me on the left coast I don't find many people saying anything good anymore about Portland.   Friends of ours who became empty nesters this year want to move to Oregon but it won't be Portland.

For those willing to entertain further economic foolishness from me…

I divided the MSAs into their respective geographic regions and averaged the percent of employment recovered. February 2020 was the last normal month, representing 100%.

The dashed black line is just St. Louis, which is also included in the Midwest average.



MSAs that haven’t recovered 100% of pre-COVID employment:
New Orleans
Virgina Beach
Baltimore
Hartford
Buffalo
Providence
Cleveland
Detroit
Milwaukee
Minneapolis
Pittsburgh

dredger wrote: ↑

Dec 29, 2023

^ agree.   I found the bottom of the list pretty interesting as well.   Memphis struggling but believe TN as whole was one of the states as one of the top population gainers in latest census, 4th or 5th believe (got a coworker saying he had enough of FL and moving family to TN, east end of state near the mountains).   Even more evident to Memphis is how St. Louis, Cincy and Indy are doing in comparison.  I wonder if TN is becoming the next retiree state with big gains in movers but those that are not coming for jobs is my take 

At same time, Has Denver peaked?  Made some trips last spring and the boom is very evident but at some time wasn't impressed on how it is happening as a lot of these standalone, houses crammed together out of the middle of nowhere developments did not look appealing from either a suburban or urban setting IMO.   Could say same for Salt Lake, Maybe?

Finally, near me on the left coast I don't find many people saying anything good anymore about Portland.   Friends of ours who became empty nesters this year want to move to Oregon but it won't be Portland.

You are bringing up an interesting point and one of the big tings to watch for is if some metro areas are losing momentum. Does seem like some have become less desirable in recent years with housing costs becoming a factor in it.

December Total Nonfarm Employment, Not Seasonally Adjusted (2022 vs. 2023)

St. Louis: +25,900 (1.8%)
Indianapolis: +33,200 (2.8%)
Kansas City: +10,000 (0.9%)
Pittsburgh: +10,800 (0.9%)
Denver: -14,600 (-0.9%)
Minneapolis: +31,200 (1.6%)

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_stlouis_msa.htm

Seasonally Adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm

St. Louis provided about about 53% of state metros job growth last year... they better be nice to us in Jeff City  https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/metro_oty_change.htm

^ It’s actually way better than 53% coming from St. Louis. The data you shared includes Illinois in St. Louis and Kansas in Kansas City. Not a good view of what StL is bringing to the state.

The only source of information I know that provides state subdivisions of MSA is non-seasonally adjusted BLS data. According to this, comparing Dec 22 to 23, the state of Missouri added 482 jobs last year. Not kidding.

MO side of St. Louis MSA: +2,171 employed
MO side of Kansas City MSA: -4,603 employed
Springfield MSA: -1,316 employed
Columbia MSA: +1,688 employed
Jefferson City MSA: +1,250 employed
Remainder of State: +1,292 employed

Important to note that this is just one perspective. Each data point on jobs at county or regional level tells a different story when deep into the weeds.

https://beta.bls.gov/dataViewer/view/ti ... 8000000005

StlToday - Nicklaus: With factory jobs at a 15-year high, St. Louis can scrape off the Rust Belt image

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/bus ... da1f4.html

Manufacturing jobs since 2000.

Well what’s most awkward is that he released the article two days before the annual revisions took place (released today). The 3,100 between December 2023 and 2022 as been revised down to -400.

Manufacturing isn’t even at a 15 year high.

addxb2 wrote: ↑

Mar 10, 2024

Manufacturing jobs since 2000.

Thanks for the graph.  I believe a big part of this graph and believe to this day that St. Louis took it on the chin when Obama bailed out Detroit.    Losing Ford and then the two Chrysler plants and associated jobs around each auto plant was painful 

Finalized 2023 Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted

December 2022 to December 2023
Mining, Logging, and Construction: +2,200 (2.96% YoY)
Manufacturing: -400 (-0.34% YoY)
Trade, Transportation, and Logistics: +6,600 (2.45% YoY)
Information: +200 (0.68% YoY)
Financial Activities: +600 (0.62% YoY)
Professional and Business Services: -5,400 (-2.45% YoY)
Education and Health: +11,400 (4.32% YoY)
Hospitality and Leisure: +8,300 (5.92% YoY)
Government: +2,900 (1.87% YoY)
TOTAL: +26,900 (1.9% YoY)

Peers
Indianapolis: +28,300 (2.5% YoY)
St. Louis: +26,900 (1.9% YoY)
Charlotte:  +25,600 (1.9% YoY)
Kansas City: +14,200 (1.3% YoY)
Minneapolis: +24,200 (1.2% YoY)
Denver: +12,900 (0.8% YoY)
Detroit: +8,500 (0.4% YoY)
Baltimore: +4,900 (0.3% YoY)

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.mo_stlouis_msa.htm

I don't think that's a bad showing at all for St. Louis.