urbanSTL

dredger wrote: ↑

Dec 29, 2017

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Dec 28, 2017

5 Lowest Total Load Factor % routes on Southwest.

Minneapolis MN (MSP) 67.33%
Tulsa OK (TUL) 69.82%
Detroit MI (DTW) 70.65%
Chicago IL (MDW) 71.95%
Kansas City MO (MCI) 72.02%

Thoughts: I was really surprised MKE was so high, but now I guess we know why a frequency was added. Same with SAN going from seasonal to 2x daily so quickly. MSP and DTW kind of shocked me being in the lowest 5. They don't even have any months above 80%. So it surprises me MSP goes to 3x.

Southwest to me seems that are trying to pull some traffic out Delta's respective hubs up north and route it through STL instead of Midway. I have Delta SFO to Detroit flight on Tuesday and my recent experience is that almost all the SFO Delta hub flights, except red eyes, coming and going from the West Coast are full whether it be Atlanta (even more so), MSP, or Detroit. Sure Delta takes advantage of it in pricing. The best two cents I can offer is maybe they see an opportunity if Delta is cautious on upping frequency, capacity from northern plains/upper midwest going west.

The plus side for me in recent years when using my Delta miles into St. Louis is that my upgrades come easier via MSP. Delta flights not exactly full either the last couple of times I have flown into STL. I also have much easier time and use less frequent flyer miles to get my step daughter out west if she routes through MSP and or back tracks to Detroit & then west..

Loads alone rarely tell a story about the commercial merits of a market and its performance. High load factor if anything is usually a proxy for low RASM (revenue per available seat mile), but each marker is unique. Most people on this forum are understandably looking at this from a STL perspective but you have to understand to Southwest (or any airline) in an operation with sizable flow the tracing of revenues and allocation of costs is a highly subjective evaluation that can at times be arbitrary.

Delta, IMO doesn't have the most sophisticated yield management team, personnel or processes in the industry they just happen to have been dealt/managed to create a very favorable hand for them to play with their network and the competitive capacity they're exposed to compared to AA or UA in their respective networks.

JAL007 wrote:

dredger wrote: ↑

Dec 29, 2017

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Dec 28, 2017

5 Lowest Total Load Factor % routes on Southwest.

Minneapolis MN (MSP) 67.33%
Tulsa OK (TUL) 69.82%
Detroit MI (DTW) 70.65%
Chicago IL (MDW) 71.95%
Kansas City MO (MCI) 72.02%

Thoughts: I was really surprised MKE was so high, but now I guess we know why a frequency was added. Same with SAN going from seasonal to 2x daily so quickly. MSP and DTW kind of shocked me being in the lowest 5. They don't even have any months above 80%. So it surprises me MSP goes to 3x.

Southwest to me seems that are trying to pull some traffic out Delta's respective hubs up north and route it through STL instead of Midway. I have Delta SFO to Detroit flight on Tuesday and my recent experience is that almost all the SFO Delta hub flights, except red eyes, coming and going from the West Coast are full whether it be Atlanta (even more so), MSP, or Detroit. Sure Delta takes advantage of it in pricing. The best two cents I can offer is maybe they see an opportunity if Delta is cautious on upping frequency, capacity from northern plains/upper midwest going west.

The plus side for me in recent years when using my Delta miles into St. Louis is that my upgrades come easier via MSP. Delta flights not exactly full either the last couple of times I have flown into STL. I also have much easier time and use less frequent flyer miles to get my step daughter out west if she routes through MSP and or back tracks to Detroit & then west..

Loads alone rarely tell a story about the commercial merits of a market and its performance. High load factor if anything is usually a proxy for low RASM (revenue per available seat mile), but each marker is unique. Most people on this forum are understandably looking at this from a STL perspective but you have to understand to Southwest (or any airline) in an operation with sizable flow the tracing of revenues and allocation of costs is a highly subjective evaluation that can at times be arbitrary.

Delta, IMO doesn't have the most sophisticated yield management team, personnel or processes in the industry they just happen to have been dealt/managed to create a very favorable hand for them to play with their network and the competitive capacity they're exposed to compared to AA or UA in their respective networks.

JAL - Care to share your 2018 outlook for Lambert? You seem to have a high level understanding and a unique (to this forum) prospective.

JAL007 wrote: ↑

Dec 29, 2017

Loads alone rarely tell a story about the commercial merits of a market and its performance. High load factor if anything is usually a proxy for low RASM (revenue per available seat mile), but each marker is unique. Most people on this forum are understandably looking at this from a STL perspective but you have to understand to Southwest (or any airline) in an operation with sizable flow the tracing of revenues and allocation of costs is a highly subjective evaluation that can at times be arbitrary.

Agree with this. It is just one aspect. Revenue (as you mentioned) also plays a role. If a less loaded plane is charging more for shorter route then I would imagine they don't need as high load %. I still find all of the different factors interesting on their own also though.

moorlander wrote: ↑

Dec 29, 2017

JAL007 wrote:

dredger wrote: ↑

Dec 29, 2017

Southwest to me seems that are trying to pull some traffic out Delta's respective hubs up north and route it through STL instead of Midway. I have Delta SFO to Detroit flight on Tuesday and my recent experience is that almost all the SFO Delta hub flights, except red eyes, coming and going from the West Coast are full whether it be Atlanta (even more so), MSP, or Detroit. Sure Delta takes advantage of it in pricing. The best two cents I can offer is maybe they see an opportunity if Delta is cautious on upping frequency, capacity from northern plains/upper midwest going west.

The plus side for me in recent years when using my Delta miles into St. Louis is that my upgrades come easier via MSP. Delta flights not exactly full either the last couple of times I have flown into STL. I also have much easier time and use less frequent flyer miles to get my step daughter out west if she routes through MSP and or back tracks to Detroit & then west..

Loads alone rarely tell a story about the commercial merits of a market and its performance. High load factor if anything is usually a proxy for low RASM (revenue per available seat mile), but each marker is unique. Most people on this forum are understandably looking at this from a STL perspective but you have to understand to Southwest (or any airline) in an operation with sizable flow the tracing of revenues and allocation of costs is a highly subjective evaluation that can at times be arbitrary.

Delta, IMO doesn't have the most sophisticated yield management team, personnel or processes in the industry they just happen to have been dealt/managed to create a very favorable hand for them to play with their network and the competitive capacity they're exposed to compared to AA or UA in their respective networks.

JAL - Care to share your 2018 outlook for Lambert? You seem to have a high level understanding and a unique (to this forum) prospective.

Overall I think things will stay the course with a few incremental additions primarily from Southwest. Perhaps a few additions like IND, MEM and some frequency additions. A new expensive facility at MCI will not necessarily mean WN abandons their strong operation here, loyal local following and support from the business community.

In my view the only likely new entrant carrier is Spirit, but it's also only a matter of time before they merge with Frontier. JetBlue is still a possibility but I think MCI is more likely for a variety of reasons including the fact that State Street Global Advisors (SSGA)-a large institutional money manager like Blackrock, Fidelity, or Vanguard has a large back office presence there and sends teams out there regularly.

I do still maintain that a BA is far fetched without a revenue guarantee or support from the business community. I suspect on the legacy carrier front things are steady state, but perhaps we will finally see some more mainline service from UA.

Just my informed opinion and read of things.

JAL007 wrote: ↑

Dec 30, 2017

In my view the only likely new entrant carrier is Spirit, but it's also only a matter of time before they merge with Frontier. JetBlue is still a possibility but I think MCI is more likely for a variety of reasons including the fact that State Street Global Advisors (SSGA)-a large institutional money manager like Blackrock, Fidelity, or Vanguard has a large back office presence there and sends teams out there regularly.

The thing I think that is keeping or will continue to keep Spirit out is that they don't really have any routes to start up that are not already pretty saturated. All of Florida has at least 3 (2 of which are ULCC for most) carriers on it. Las Vegas is the same way. They won't fly Detroit or Chicago from here. LAX is probably too long to start as your first route and I doubt they would start international either.

I think JetBlue is more likely just because STL-BOS is still one of the most expensive routes from STL and almost every other midwest city has at least 2 airlines on it already. STL is usually around $200 for a nonstop and places like KC, Indy, Nashville are all usually under $100. I think we are due for it.

Now that I say all this Spirit will probably be announced next week....

I also see Spirit unlikely to enter here for a while due to no obvious routes that they could start. Most likely scenario is they only enter here due to a merger with Frontier. Similar dynamics are likely the reason they are not in Nashville since it seems like they were picking smaller markets to enter in lately likely due to less competition and low risk of retaliation.

JetBlue seems like its likely due to here is now the busiest domestic route out of Boston that is unserved and anything near here in demand has at least 2 airlines on it now. But we won't hear anything on this until later in 2018.

Other guesses i see for 2018 is more service to Europe due to the large new incentives approved a couple months ago so everything is in place for it. But we won't hear about it until summer due to being too far out of a likely start date of spring 2019.

Alaska starts another route to California after their issues get sorted out with Horizon and further their competition with Southwest in that market. There has already been a number of additions and competition to here as a result of this fight and likely to continue.

Continued growth from Southwest with possibly another international destination and domestic destination announced along with frequency increases. Also something that is added could be something out of nowhere and unexpected, since thare are getting large enough here that almost any point is feasable with connecting feed. Mainly if any smaller station needs to add a flight here might make as much or more sense than say an extra MDW frequency. Also stronger rumors about a possible Southwest pilot base being added here is something else to watch. A new terminal in KC will have no impact here since its at least years away.

Other improvments i could see is somehow get another luggage carousel in T2 since thats a mess at times now at the times of flight banks and also could see discussions start as it relates to need to start planning on creating more international arrival gates since more of the growth at this point is going to be international.

imperialmog wrote: ↑

Dec 30, 2017

Other guesses i see for 2018 is more service to Europe due to the large new incentives approved a couple months ago so everything is in place for it. But we won't hear about it until summer due to being too far out of a likely start date of spring 2019.

I think I have seen somewhere that BA does have a 787 being delivered in July, so maybe they would start a new route in July. They would need to probably announce it in the next month if that was the case though.

Per the STL Business Journal, the Wingtips lounge in T2 opens this week.

As of now, the Wingtips lounge does not show up as a Priority Pass lounge.. although I suspect it will be eventually.

gregl wrote: ↑

Jan 02, 2018

Per the STL Business Journal, the Wingtips lounge in T2 opens this week.

As of now, the Wingtips lounge does not show up as a Priority Pass lounge.. although I suspect it will be eventually.

There are some pics in this tweet.

Seeing those curved windows from the outside, I just expected them to not take advantage of them. Would be very cool to see them in person but I probably never will haha. I love the treatment of the space they had to work with though.

STL's financials for the 2017 financial year (ending June 2017) were uploaded just before Christmas.

Landing fees were down 30 cents to $7.65
Cost per enplaned Passenger were down 60 cents to $11.23

https://cats.airports.faa.gov/Reports/reports.cfm (form 127)

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jan 03, 2018

STL's financials for the 2017 financial year (ending June 2017) were uploaded just before Christmas.

Landing fees were down 30 cents to $7.65
Cost per enplaned Passenger were down 60 cents to $11.23

https://cats.airports.faa.gov/Reports/reports.cfm (form 127)

Those both seem very high when I do a quick comparison vs. similar peer cities. Can anyone more in the know than I shed light on to why that is the case and, perhaps more importantly, if landing fees are deterring additional flights?

MRNHS wrote: ↑

Jan 04, 2018

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jan 03, 2018

STL's financials for the 2017 financial year (ending June 2017) were uploaded just before Christmas.

Landing fees were down 30 cents to $7.65
Cost per enplaned Passenger were down 60 cents to $11.23

https://cats.airports.faa.gov/Reports/reports.cfm (form 127)

Those both seem very high when I do a quick comparison vs. similar peer cities. Can anyone more in the know than I shed light on to why that is the case and, perhaps more importantly, if landing fees are deterring additional flights?

Still paying off the runway, no?

ricke002 wrote: ↑

Jan 04, 2018

MRNHS wrote: ↑

Jan 04, 2018

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jan 03, 2018

STL's financials for the 2017 financial year (ending June 2017) were uploaded just before Christmas.

Landing fees were down 30 cents to $7.65
Cost per enplaned Passenger were down 60 cents to $11.23

https://cats.airports.faa.gov/Reports/reports.cfm (form 127)

Those both seem very high when I do a quick comparison vs. similar peer cities. Can anyone more in the know than I shed light on to why that is the case and, perhaps more importantly, if landing fees are deterring additional flights?

Still paying off the runway, no?

Correct. I think it is mostly the runway. When AA pulled out those fees went up. They have come down a fair amount since then. I think I saw they are projected to keep going down. As we add flights they should go down.
Landing and CPE
2010 - $8.60 and $15
2011 - $8.18 and $13.01
2012 - $8.10 and $13.69
2013 - $8.10 and $14.55
2014 - $8.67 and $14.79
2015 - $9.02 and $14.42
2016 - $7.95 and $11.83
2017 - $7.65 and $11.23

Why the upticks in 14 and 15? Terminal renovations?

wabash wrote: ↑

Jan 04, 2018

Why the upticks in 14 and 15? Terminal renovations?

That could make sense. I don't remember the years of the renovations but it seems to fit. Traffic also was down in 2013 and 2014 (after being up in 2011 and 2012) so maybe there was a year lag on pricing adjustments? I don't really have anything more than a guess though.

jshank83 wrote: ↑

Jan 04, 2018

Press event for the Wingtips lounge is today. Looks like they are serving Kaldi's coffee in it. Cool to see them using local brands.



Press release with more pics:

https://www.flystl.com/newsroom/stl-new ... terminal-2

Looks really impressive, far better than many The Club lounges I have been in. Hope it is added to the Priority Pass network sooner than later.

The new club looks quite nice. IMO it’s only a matter of time before it joins Priority Pass or honors AMEX Platinum (and Centurion) for entry. There’s a similar club at BDL (Bradley/Hartford, CT) that has a deal worked out directly with American Express.

For anyone here interested, ATS is based at Westport Plaza and was initially a subsidiary of TWA but was spun-off at some point in the late 80s early 90s. ATS operates the WingTips at JFK and several other lounges on behalf of other carriers (ie LH at DTW). ATS currently does ground handling for the majors at outlining stations including AA. The AA operation at Eagle Vail (EGE) has been handled by ATS for years both above and below the wing, as an example.

It doesn’t surprise me ATS is branching out though. The ground handling business is notoriously low margin, and with the state of the industry now the majors are more willing to avoid th switching costs of bringing in a new ground handler at a line station than they were 7-10 years ago. Plus you have outfits like McGee (Alaska Air Group), United Ground Services (UAL), Delta Global Services (DL) and Envoy (formerly American Eagle) that the majors have “bid” for their own work and still allows them to have a solid handle on the operation while benefiting from a third party type cost structure.

Hope to check out the new lounge in a couple months when I pass through the East Terminal.

Thanks JAL. That's a rather flattering write up he has there. But more to the point, it's great to see some more pictures of the thing. They have laid the space out well.

Found this image from Saturday. Kind of cool to see almost all the gates full. Thought I would share.

That's about what it felt like when I flew out a couple of months back. Nice!