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PostJul 17, 2017#3451

stlcards311 wrote:
Jul 17, 2017
Seeing on Twitter that there looks to be extraordinarily long lines this morning to get through TSA in Terminal 1. Also came across a complaint that TSA Pre-Check was not open. Wonder what's going on?
I had friends who went through TSA Pre-Check in A today. I asked if they made their plane (after seeing the comments like you) and they said yes because they had Pre-Check so it wasn't an issue for them. I know they had that big convention this past weekend with herbalife people here (the same friends said they had a bunch on their plane Thursday coming from Detroit). Maybe that was the reason?

PostJul 17, 2017#3452

Sounds like Frontier is doing their schedule extension tomorrow. So we will see what it holds. Looks like they are adding OKC, Grand Rapids and Buffalo as stations. Miami is having an expansion to 8 new cities. Not sure if we would be in on that one or not. They might also be expanding at CVG (I highly doubt we would get a flight there though.)

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PostJul 17, 2017#3453

Haven't they still haven't shown a schedule after the start of November? Which is really odd to not have winter bookings available yet.

Another weird thing I have not seen change yet is the near identical times for Alaska flights to Portland and San Diego within 15 minutes of each other. If that remains the schedule they will either be sharing a gate with someone or is getting a 2nd gate for themselves. I did see in that airport map ealier posted the gate next to them C 17 is not assigned.

And next week will have the spring break schedule extension for Southwest. Likely nothing significant, just the usual spring break flights that have been done since they are still in the plane crunch with ends just after that. One thing that would be interesting to see is if they bring back Charleston next year and if its earlier than June. That and after spring break next year it would be good if they kept Ft. Lauderdale to at least twice daily to connect better with their new Caribbean flights from there.

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PostJul 17, 2017#3454

imperialmog wrote:
Jul 17, 2017
Haven't they still haven't shown a schedule after the start of November? Which is really odd to not have winter bookings available yet.

Another weird thing I have not seen change yet is the near identical times for Alaska flights to Portland and San Diego within 15 minutes of each other. If that remains the schedule they will either be sharing a gate with someone or is getting a 2nd gate for themselves. I did see in that airport map ealier posted the gate next to them C 17 is not assigned.

And next week will have the spring break schedule extension for Southwest. Likely nothing significant, just the usual spring break flights that have been done since they are still in the plane crunch with ends just after that. One thing that would be interesting to see is if they bring back Charleston next year and if its earlier than June. That and after spring break next year it would be good if they kept Ft. Lauderdale to at least twice daily to connect better with their new Caribbean flights from there.
I am not sure A17 is usable. If you look how the lines are painted (on google) on either side of it, there isn't room. Maybe this is why they are opening more gates further down A? They could move them down there.

I agree with your Southwest thoughts. I think it will be slow for a little. They already had to drop some routes for this fall/winter in some places they previously scheduled. They don't usually get rid of routes after the schedule is out. They must not be getting planes as quickly as they thought.

Austin has said a carrier will announce they are more than doubling their flights tomorrow.

San Jose is also having adds.

I am really curious to see how Frontier is going about this expansion. It sounds like they will have new stations and closing others. Seems pretty big for them.

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PostJul 18, 2017#3455

Frontier has a really sizeable presence at STL. I know a lot of people who fly them quite regularly. The only downside with them is they really do not promote connections. Some connection times in DEN can be north of 16 hours. One area I used to live, Sioux Falls, SD, I believe is losing Frontier. I would expect them to slash a lot of those small cities.

Also, have we heard any updates on those "airlines seeking gate space" in A & C? I would actually really like to see Spirit in St Louis, but I do know they don't like to challenge Southwest. Also, DAL has announced 4 flights from Austin to Amsterdam for SXSW, but it's not permanent.

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PostJul 18, 2017#3456

Chalupas54 wrote:
Jul 18, 2017
Frontier has a really sizeable presence at STL. I know a lot of people who fly them quite regularly. The only downside with them is they really do not promote connections. Some connection times in DEN can be north of 16 hours. One area I used to live, Sioux Falls, SD, I believe is losing Frontier. I would expect them to slash a lot of those small cities.

Also, have we heard any updates on those "airlines seeking gate space" in A & C? I would actually really like to see Spirit in St Louis, but I do know they don't like to challenge Southwest. Also, DAL has announced 4 flights from Austin to Amsterdam for SXSW, but it's not permanent.
They are doing better here than last year through the first quarter. Not a ton better but April had a good jump. It will be interesting to see the rest of the summer. January still seems a little rough. (This doesn't include the Cancun route, it only has data for January)

These numbers are for both ways combined.

Month.... Load% 2016.....2017...........passengers 2016......2017
Jan..........77%..................77.9%............38,781...............40,384
Feb..........82.3%...............85.4%............44,604..............41,203
March......89.9%...............90.5%............51,928..............52,409
April.........75.5%...............83.3%............36,524..............43,297


It would be interesting to see them add something but I really have no clue what they would add from here. There aren't any routes that I could see them serving. I guess they could try Florida locations for winter. I am doubtful we see anything though.


I don't really have any interest in Spirit (although a new airline is always exciting). I just have heard how bad they can be to fly on. I would rather see Frontier expand more. If Spirit got more people to travel it would be one thing but I wouldn't want to see them take passengers away from the airlines we have here and reduce current airlines service.

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PostJul 18, 2017#3457

jshank83 wrote:
Jul 18, 2017
Chalupas54 wrote:
Jul 18, 2017
Frontier has a really sizeable presence at STL. I know a lot of people who fly them quite regularly. The only downside with them is they really do not promote connections. Some connection times in DEN can be north of 16 hours. One area I used to live, Sioux Falls, SD, I believe is losing Frontier. I would expect them to slash a lot of those small cities.

Also, have we heard any updates on those "airlines seeking gate space" in A & C? I would actually really like to see Spirit in St Louis, but I do know they don't like to challenge Southwest. Also, DAL has announced 4 flights from Austin to Amsterdam for SXSW, but it's not permanent.
They are doing better here than last year through the first quarter. Not a ton better but April had a good jump. It will be interesting to see the rest of the summer. January still seems a little rough. (This doesn't include the Cancun route, it only has data for January)

These numbers are for both ways combined.

Month.... Load% 2016.....2017...........passengers 2016......2017
Jan..........77%..................77.9%............38,781...............40,384
Feb..........82.3%...............85.4%............44,604..............41,203
March......89.9%...............90.5%............51,928..............52,409
April.........75.5%...............83.3%............36,524..............43,297


It would be interesting to see them add something but I really have no clue what they would add from here. There aren't any routes that I could see them serving. I guess they could try Florida locations for winter. I am doubtful we see anything though.


I don't really have any interest in Spirit (although a new airline is always exciting). I just have heard how bad they can be to fly on. I would rather see Frontier expand more. If Spirit got more people to travel it would be one thing but I wouldn't want to see them take passengers away from the airlines we have here and reduce current airlines service.
Interesting point about Spirit. I know they entered MCI to challenge SWA, same with Allegiant. If anything, is Allegiant poaching any passengers from STL at BLV?

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PostJul 18, 2017#3458

Chalupas54 wrote:
Jul 18, 2017

Interesting point about Spirit. I know they entered MCI to challenge SWA, same with Allegiant. If anything, is Allegiant poaching any passengers from STL at BLV?
I had heard Spirit wasn't doing that well at MCI. Now that I look at the numbers they were down last year (around 12%) but they seem to be up this year by a decent margin (more than they were down last year). The loads aren't all that great but maybe they are rebounding there.

I never know how to factor in low cost airlines. I am sure there is a decent segment of people that travel on them that wouldn't travel if they had to pay Southwest/Delta/AA/United prices. So that just leaves going against Frontier. I also think, at least people I know on the Illinois side, like the no parking fees at Midamerica and just staying over there to fly. They obviously poach some passengers but I don't really know how many. If they have 220,000 this year, 50-75% would come to STL if BLV didn't exist? That said, if Allegiant was at STL I wonder how many more they would have flying them?

PostJul 18, 2017#3459

You can search the Frontier schedule extension now but you can't book.

Tampa is being restarted.
It looks like PHX is not back this winter though.
It is double daily to Orlando for some of the schedule. I don't know if it did that last winter or not?

PostJul 18, 2017#3460

Interview with the Airport Director. Mostly talks about privatization.

But this was mentioned

Connecting flights are up 28 percent so far this year, mostly because of Southwest Airlines. Hamm-Niebruegge said that’s likely to translate into 1.5 million more passengers coming through Lambert this year.

If that is true it would push the airport over 15 million this year and be another 10% jump. This must mean the summer numbers will be strong.


http://news.stlpublicradio.org/post/wha ... e#stream/0

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PostJul 18, 2017#3461

The numbers so far aren't around the 10% increase at this point. And thinking the 1.5 million increase is the increase from both connecting traffic and local demand. Since the math would imply 5.35 million of last years traffic as connecting which is likely nowhere near that. Actually how much traffic last year was connections? I remember near half of last years growth was actually local demand and might be similar this year. The local demand growth is rather strong relative to perception on local economy, which brings up a few questions as to why would local demand indicate a stronger economy locally than otherwise.

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PostJul 18, 2017#3462

imperialmog wrote:
Jul 18, 2017
The numbers so far aren't around the 10% increase at this point. And thinking the 1.5 million increase is the increase from both connecting traffic and local demand. Since the math would imply 5.35 million of last years traffic as connecting which is likely nowhere near that. Actually how much traffic last year was connections? I remember near half of last years growth was actually local demand and might be similar this year. The local demand growth is rather strong relative to perception on local economy, which brings up a few questions as to why would local demand indicate a stronger economy locally than otherwise.
That is why summer would have to be really strong to get to 10%. I think we are around 6% up at this point. I also took the 1.5 mil as a reference as TOTAL (local and connecting) traffic increase for the year.

I saw a number that last year was 20% connecting. But the phrasing made it so that I didn't know if that was total percentage of all traffic in 2016 or the increase in connecting traffic over 2015.

PostJul 18, 2017#3463

One more Frontier update. Here is there entire update in easy to read form for those interested. 21 new cities. Adding Calgary-Denver (I think this is the first US based Low cost carrier to fly to Canada)

Only Tampa 4x weekly for us.

https://www.flyfrontier.com/news/posts/ ... obile=true

PostJul 19, 2017#3464

Cape is recommending to switch their EAS to Skywest and Chicago only. Surprises me a little. I thought they would choose something that gave them access to multiple airports. I wouldn't say it's a big loss for us though, DOT still gets final say.

http://www.semissourian.com/story/2428939.html

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PostJul 19, 2017#3465

jshank83 wrote:
Jul 18, 2017
One more Frontier update. Here is there entire update in easy to read form for those interested. 21 new cities. Adding Calgary-Denver (I think this is the first US based Low cost carrier to fly to Canada)

Only Tampa 4x weekly for us.

https://www.flyfrontier.com/news/posts/ ... obile=true
That is something to watch, since other than the three big US carriers no other carrier other than Alaska has touched routes to Canada. So if they have success there it could get others including Southwest to look more into it.

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PostJul 21, 2017#3466

Quincy is switching airlines to Boutique Air (which adds a new airline to STL) but sticking with STL flights. Instead of 6 a day it is now 4 to STL and 2 to Chicago. Makes sense to me for them to choose that. Again like the Cape proposal is has to be approved by the DOT. The Cape proposal had that one of the daily flights would stop in Quincy on the way to Chicago. I don't know if that changes their proposal now.

Overall isn't that much of a passenger count but I thought it was noteworthy. I also found it interesting a bunch of the comments no the article were Quincy people wishing they would have stuck with Cape Air.

http://www.whig.com/20170720/boutique-a ... al-funding#

PostJul 26, 2017#3467

Southwest has their schedule extension tomorrow. I am not expecting much except some seasonal routes to Florida to start back up. Maybe Charleston comes back early?

The one I am going to throw out is West Palm Beach. Since this extension is over Cardinals Spring Training, I wonder if they would add it just for this extension (even if it is just weekends only)? I know Fort Lauderdale isn't a whole lot further away but maybe they could make it work for this extension. I have heard people say they fly to PBI instead of FLL already, even with a connection. Just throwing it out there. We will see tomorrow.

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PostJul 26, 2017#3468

So how is it that there are zero short term parking spaces now at noon on a Tuesday at terminal 2. Nobody walking to cars or anything. Just lots of permanently parked Escalades and Mercedes. I think they need to double short term parking cost.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PostJul 26, 2017#3469

I was thinking Charleston could come back in this next one. The way it started this summer implies it was doing better than expected (and possibly stimulated demand). And with the new gates now they could time things to allow more connecting possibilities. I picture nothing other than the sun routes this time due to plane crunch still occurring (that ends after spring)

I was actually thinking about West Palm Beach for the Cardinals spring training reason as well. It would be interesting to see in that demand chart if there is a noticeable difference in demand to/from there in Q1 as a result. Another one since it would be sun related and Florida is Jacksonville. Since that fits the idea and that's among the highest demand places that don't have daily nonstops from here.

For later next year I could see some new adds and/or frequency changes since it would be odd to get 4 new gates without adds somewhere (unless they won't be able to use the international arrivials gates as much next year for various reasons). Once source of adds could be where a smaller station for Southwest needs to add capacity due to crowded flights from there and adding here makes more sense than say another flight to Midway or Love Field.

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PostJul 26, 2017#3470

imperialmog wrote:
Jul 26, 2017

For later next year I could see some new adds and/or frequency changes since it would be odd to get 4 new gates without adds somewhere (unless they won't be able to use the international arrivials gates as much next year for various reasons). Once source of adds could be where a smaller station for Southwest needs to add capacity due to crowded flights from there and adding here makes more sense than say another flight to Midway or Love Field.
I think there have to be more adds coming, even if they aren't til next summer. It doesn't make sense for them to have a gate they don't even use at this time. I am pretty sure they are still suppose to take control of E40 also. I can't see them leaving E31/33 either. We would have to get a ton of international adds for them to have to leave them. It would be nice if they would open a crew base here. That would be a nice way to really say they are serious here. I figure we have to be on the short list if they add any more of them. We will see though.

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PostJul 27, 2017#3471

gary kreie wrote:
Jul 26, 2017
So how is it that there are zero short term parking spaces now at noon on a Tuesday at terminal 2. Nobody walking to cars or anything. Just lots of permanently parked Escalades and Mercedes. I think they need to double short term parking cost.
Doubling would put us with big cities. Go to $30/day and then see what happens: increase by $5 until there's enough hourly. IIRC the highest I've seen is like mid $50's/day at Midway and O'Hare. But LAX is only $30.

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PostJul 27, 2017#3472

imperialmog wrote:
Jul 26, 2017
I was thinking Charleston could come back in this next one. The way it started this summer implies it was doing better than expected (and possibly stimulated demand). And with the new gates now they could time things to allow more connecting possibilities. I picture nothing other than the sun routes this time due to plane crunch still occurring (that ends after spring)

I was actually thinking about West Palm Beach for the Cardinals spring training reason as well. It would be interesting to see in that demand chart if there is a noticeable difference in demand to/from there in Q1 as a result. Another one since it would be sun related and Florida is Jacksonville. Since that fits the idea and that's among the highest demand places that don't have daily nonstops from here.

For later next year I could see some new adds and/or frequency changes since it would be odd to get 4 new gates without adds somewhere (unless they won't be able to use the international arrivials gates as much next year for various reasons). Once source of adds could be where a smaller station for Southwest needs to add capacity due to crowded flights from there and adding here makes more sense than say another flight to Midway or Love Field.
Addressing your last point, many smaller midwest stations for SWA have lost MDW service, and replaced with STL. Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Des Moines and Witchita have all lost MDW service. Omaha and Tulsa are probably next on the chopping block. There are rumblings on airliners.net that Sioux Falls, SD and Fargo, ND are vying heavily for SWA service... maybe those are two pickups in the future? Also, regarding a few other comments- Southwest is serious about STL. They employ almost 500 people here, much higher than other markets. I believe that's one of the highest w/o a crew base. Maybe someday soon. But I honestly don't see SWA cutting really anything out of STL for the foreseeable future. Their physical expansion here is a big deal. I see room for even more SWA growth out of STL.

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PostJul 27, 2017#3473

dweebe wrote:
Jul 27, 2017
Doubling would put us with big cities. Go to $30/day and then see what happens: increase by $5 until there's enough hourly. IIRC the highest I've seen is like mid $50's/day at Midway and O'Hare. But LAX is only $30.
O'Hare is $74/day.

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PostJul 27, 2017#3474

Southwest update doing just a quick check. Might be more these were just routes I saw easily.

STL-PBI saturday only (new)
STL-CUN goes daily (from Saturday only)
STL-ECP daily seasonal is back
STL-BNA +1 to 3x daily (1 more than this time last year)
STL-BOS +1 to 3x daily (same as last year for this time period but +1 from last extension)

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PostJul 27, 2017#3475

That seems to be what was predicted based on time of year and what they have available to add. West Palm Beach was a correct guess and likely based on Cardinals spring training. (since South Florida travel demand from here tends to skew towards the Gulf Coast) Cancun going daily seemed inevitiable since it helps that the way the flights are timed it can connect to a lot of the smaller central states markets to fill flights. Nashville and Boston are likely what they wanted since the reduction was only for the dead of winter schedule which is either related to that or lack of planes to fly it.

Next release will be interesting since its after the winter/spring break seasonals and the end of plane crunch so regular year round adds would make sense to start then.

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