urbanSTL

dweebe wrote:

KerrytheKonstructor wrote:It's really pretty there in the summer. Personally, I like the cooler (40's to 60s) , misty, greyer days they have the rest of the year. Lots of people hate those.

Is leisure travel that much of a swing. When I used to travel to Seattle I don't remember the summer flights being filled with families like you're going to Orlando.

There is now a significant cruise industry out of Seattle in the summer, as well.

Greg

^ That is a popular summer cruise destination and the Pacific Northwest is a good place to get away for cooler weather in summer from here. Also on the PM Alaska flight it is affected by Southwest having in the summer a flight that departs at almost the same time and likely there was a noticeable number of people used that flight to get towards Portland that now have the non-stop at the same time of day to use. It would be interesting to see as they get more e175s if they may try off season am flights at least some days of the week to Seattle. I picture there is a growing business travel demand to Seattle from here with some of the Boeing moves and the startup scene growing here.

Anyone else notice there has been a significant increase in west coast service the past couple years? All that is needed now is for service to San Diego to go year round (I think that's the highest demand route that isn't daily year round from St. Louis)

Am I right in thinking that the airport people are gradually focusing more on getting a transatlantic flight? Mainly due to having a lot of the domestic holes getting filled in. Another is I'm guessing JetBlue to Boston is more of a when not if at this point.

I flew nonstop to Seattle on SW for vacation and the flights there and back were both completely full. Weather was cloudless there and got up to 97 degrees in Portland. Locals were suffering but it felt like 80 to us because there was no humidity. Didn't use umbrellas once until we landed back in St Louis where it was pouring. The locals said they got July weather a month early and Ranger at Mt Rainier also said meadows were blooming a month early. There were signs of drought in some areas.

^ I have heard more people the last year or two interested in pacific northwest trips here. Also aren't a number of the Boeing jobs transfers from Seattle? Since that would drive demand.

I did see there was reported increase in traffic the past quarter. I'm guessing a drop in June might be due to 2nd wettest month ever here might have had more cancellations than normal. Interesting is that with the US/AA merger AA is now significantly larger market share than Delta since it was getting close.

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.a ... rier=FACTS

Interesting is this sheet and looking back over time too. Of note is the 10 largest destination airports and its change over time. Surprise is Dallas-Love Field is not decreasing considering the Wright Amendment restrictions removed in October. (related to it.. do they count someone who is on the same plane for 2 legs for traffic in the middle spot? Say someone who flew DAL-STL-MDW with no plane change, does that count for STL traffic or only actual connections?) Also of note is the noticeable drop in both ORD and MDW. I wonder if traffic numbers for local demand is distorted by the long-term decrease in demand for short flights and going to Chicago in particular? It would also make Chicago less appealing for hub connecting if they are getting less local traffic over time which hurts United, American, and Southwest.

Curious now if there are places from here where there is noticeable increase in demand from here both in places that have non-stop and don't at this point. Since there has been a nice additional number of destinations the last couple of years and curious what may come in the next couple years for new/expanded/added competition service.

Update on airport traffic

http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/morn ... years.html

I see a follow up article on this, and this seems to be more of an accurate picture.

http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2015/07/30/ ... ole-story/

Interesting is the note that in number of destinations served non-stop is the comment there will be the announcement of another destination in the next month. Most likely guess on that is that is tied to next schedule extension on Southwest on August 11. There are a number of possibilities on what that could be. And if its not Southwest there aren't many possibiliites it could be. (note: its somewhere that nobody serves so its not announcing someone adding a route with a competitor now)

matguy70 wrote:That article is much better indeed. I swear you can twist numbers anyway you want.

Anyway. My guess and hope is a new nonstop International Europe flight.

That is my guess if its not a new Southwest route. Mainly due to everyone else already has their hubs connected from here and they said its something not serviced now, which would mean it wouldn't be JetBlue (which that is only a matter of time until that happens) since they would add Boston and they stated its not something where service exists now. AA, UA, and DL has all their hubs served here and wouldn't start a non-hub route, especially to any market not served already. Alaska is unlikely but not zero.. they may toss as e175 to San Jose which would fit new destination but they haven't done new east of rockies routes from there so far.

If its Southwest it could be a large number, and it would be the 3rd schedule extension in a row that involves a new or restored route here. It could be any number of places: guess is either a restart of Albuquerque, Louisville, or Birmingham or starting Hartford, Des Moines, Buffalo, or Jacksonville. The date on any announcment from them is the 11th. Their last schedule extension was a bit shocking with restarting STL-LIT and MDW-IND due to trend of cutting short flights, so it could be sign of a trend reversal. Just if it is them it could be any number of routes. This also brings up the issue of Terminal 2 nearing capacity and getting closer to a partial reopening of D.

Earlier today. 777 diverted here from ORD because of weather.

Sounds like MidAmerica Airport is getting a new destination. We'll find out tomorrow what it is and what airline will service it.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/traffic/al ... af346.html

Lambert is supposed to announce a new destination tomorrow as well, correct?

^ With Lambert its likely tomorrow. They said sometime this month and tomorrow is the next Southwest schedule extension. I have no idea what they would add since there is at least a half dozen cities, and its known its a destination not served by anyone now. (that isn't to say that also could be added) Also its of note seeing what changes overall to their schedule here will come beyond the normal adjustments based on time of year. What the airport director in an article at the end of July stated a new destination served non-stop will be announced sometime within 30 days of then, and odds are its related to SWA schedule extension.

It will be interesting is if tomorrow comes and there is no new route announcement from Southwest. Since there isn't many possibilities what it could be then.

So it's for sure a Southwest announcement?

^ No but its most likely based on the wording of the airport director in its a destination not served now. AA/DL/UA already flies to all their hubs from here and would be very unlikely to do a non-hub route, since almost every plausible one of those already is served. Also it couldn't be someone like a JetBlue since they would fly routes Southwest already flies. If not that most likely would actually be transatlantic service.

As for if its Southwest. Its either a return of a route dropped in the last few years like Albuquerque, Birmingham, or Louisville or something new like Des Moines (note: Iowa officials are really pushing this one), Hartford, or Jacksonville. The wild card possibility could be something like Charleston, SC (tourism opportunity and there may be growing business demand due in large part to Boeing)

AS always, thanks for your input Imperialmog...

Another option for flying to Las Vegas. Allegiant announces non-stop flights from MidAmerica Airport to Las Vegas.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/traffic/al ... af346.html

I had a suspicion this would be the choice. Will be interesting to hear if Lambert makes the expected announcement Imperialmog alluded to.

The "new" destination is a resumption of WN's seasonal STL-SAN service.

Greg

The Lambert announcement is related to this article

http://stlouis.cbslocal.com/2015/07/30/ ... ole-story/

Nothing new with the latest Southwest schedule extension in relation to new service other than San Diego seasonal return and Saturday Panama City, FL service (which is 2x frequency). And by their definition these would not count as "new"
So what the airport director is referencing is really odd. Would they really count either as new since its a seasonal service going for several years, unless they are deciding to make it permanent. If they announce nothing related to this then its almost certain this isn't what is being referenced in the newsstory.

British Airways just announced they will start service from London (LHR) to San Jose (SJC) next May.

This is about the same time of year that BA announced service to Austin in 2013 and makes it unlikely that a STL route will be started in early 2016.

Greg

United has upgraded one flight per day to Chicago and Denver to mainline:

http://www.united.com/CMS/UADocuments/p ... etable.pdf

STL-PIT flights operated by Trans States Airlines (as American Eagle) are being eliminated as of 12/1.

This was a route which Trans States flew "at-risk" where they received the actual revenue for the flight as opposed to being paid a flat rate to operate the route as typically happens with regional airline service.

Greg

United has upgraded one flight per day to Chicago and Denver to mainline:

http://www.united.com/CMS/UADocuments/p ... etable.pdf

That is very good news. Hopefully we will see more flights upgauged from ERJ/CRJ to the EMB-175 as they keep coming into the fleet. I would love to see the Monday morning feeder flights (the 5am and 6am flights to DEN and ORD) upgauged.

KevinAdams wrote: Hopefully we will see more flights upgauged from ERJ/CRJ to the EMB-175 as they keep coming into the fleet.

The number of upgauges out of STL on United will be limited by the fact that St. Louis is a crew base for Trans States and many crew routings begin & end here as a result. As long as they are doing ERJ flying for United, you will see a number of ERJs to/from STL.

Greg

^ If I'm not mistaken, aren't they going to be getting a number of new planes in the coming years including the next gen e175? Also likely the 50 seaters will be phased out in time with the larger regional jets that will seat more and have a business class. Also I noticed the timing of the mainline flight to ORD, it seems very well timed for connecting to their Europe and Asia flights. Wouldn't surprise since the couple times I went to London a large number of the afternoon flights to ORD were going on to those.

As to the AA ending the STL-PIT flights, isn't it almost certain Southwest will start that soon since they likely were holding off on it due to those flights. (similar dynamic is likely in play with Cleveland) I'd be shocked if its not announced in their next schedule extension. Only real question is when it would start and 1 or 2 flights a day and their times. 2 would actually be a really noticeable seat increase but could very well work depending on times due to the connecting opportunities on Southwest here.

imperialmog wrote:^ If I'm not mistaken, aren't they going to be getting a number of new planes in the coming years including the next gen e175? Also likely the 50 seaters will be phased out in time with the larger regional jets that will seat more and have a business class.

Trans States Airlines is actually one of three airlines owned by Trans States Holdings. TSA exclusively operates the ERJ-145. GoJet exclusively operates the CRJ-700/900. Compass exclusively operates the Embraer 170/175.

Compass has outstanding orders for the Embraer 175, but those are to be operated for American.

I'm not aware of any new aircraft coming to Trans States Airlines in the near future. Trans States Holdings has orders for a yet-to-fly Mitsubishi Regional Jet but they have not said which of their airlines will fly the aircraft, which won't be delivered for another 2-3 years anyway.

As to the AA ending the STL-PIT flights, isn't it almost certain Southwest will start that soon since they likely were holding off on it due to those flights. (similar dynamic is likely in play with Cleveland).

Southwest previously served CLE from STL. In the 90s, I was on a project in CLE to which I traveled weekly. I had a choice of 6x daily on TWA, 4x daily on Southwest or 2x daily on Continental Express.

While it's possible that STL-CLE and STL-PIT are launched at some point, I'm not 100% confident in that. Southwest seems to be staying away from many sub-500 mile routes except when it greatly enhances connecting opportunities (see STL-LIT) which CLE & PIT would not do.

Greg