urbanSTL

Cost of NS

$2.2B

lets say we beat out bunch of other cities and get the feds to pay for half $1.1B

now we need a local $1.1B + we need a local $1.23B (current operating shortfall for Metro over the next 30 years in the regions LONG Range plan) Feds will NOT participate in system expansion until a region can show it can financially operate the existing system

So now the local cost is $2.33B + what ever it will cost to operate NS over the next 30 years...$500m? we are looking at needing close to $3B in local funds to make NS happen

That is one STEEP hill to climb.

My math says from 2017-2047 a half cent sales tax in the City can bring in $800,000,000

if the County did the same thing, it would bring in an additional $3.1B over 30 years.....

but lets say they can do some magic and make the $1.23B operating shortfall disappear (it can be done)

in that Case a City 1/2 cent sales tax and a county 1/10 sales tax = $2.4B over the next 30 years....

Sadly I can't see any sales tax like that passing in the county in this current climate. Both cigarette taxes failed in both the city and county and 2006 metrolink expansion was disastrous. I just don't see how any kind of sales tax is going to pass . I could see it potentially passing in the city but county will be a huge uphill battle

^ focus for now and the next 5 years should be multiple BRT lines and better regular bus service.

Why is it so difficult to fun the program through passenger fares? Why is it so expensive to run two fairly new metro lines? Is that the total cost including buses and everything else? I don't understand where the money is going.

Build a full, automated system, within the city and inner burbs, charge 2k (4k if bought piecemeal) a year for full use. I don't see why we wouldn't be able to get a couple hundred thousand people on board initially. Let the feds worry about providing discounts for those that cannot afford it. Cut highway funding and use that money to lay the tracks and have metro fund fully the running of the system. Build the trains here, which the state will also like and likely help out with.

Cut the train conductor (or whatever they're called on the metro) and place them either at the station or patrolling the trains along with an officer. Build little kiosk stand at the stations and sell stuff for additional funding.

Might be a little difficult to get people on board given how well our highways work. Just a little spitballing here but feel free to criticize.

flipz wrote:Why is it so difficult to fund the program through passenger fares?

Metro charges what $2 a fare....the actual cost of that trip is costing metro $6 or so...you think anyone would ride a bus if it was $6 a trip?

dbInSouthCity wrote:

flipz wrote:Why is it so difficult to fund the program through passenger fares?

Metro charges what $2 a fare....the actual cost of that trip is costing metro $6 or so...you think anyone would ride a bus if it was $6 a trip?

Why does it cost so much? Bring costs down and push for monthly and yearly commitments from riders.

highway funding is funded with highway user fees...good luck getting those user fees to fund transit (would need a MO Constitutional amendment to change the law)
http://www.modot.org/about/documents/Fi ... apshot.pdf

User fees such as gas tax? The biggest opponent would be the construction companies which build highways, and given that they are just as capable in laying tracks, I don't think they would mind. Note I said just for the construction of the tracks, not running of public transport, which is a separate issue.

flipz wrote: gas tax? The biggest opponent would be the construction companies which build highways, and given that they are just as capable in laying tracks, I don't think they would mind. Note I said just for the construction of the tracks, not running of public transport, which is a separate issue.

user fees are; gas tax ($550M a year) sales tax on cars $320M a year and license fees (250m) a year...those 3 main components of state revenue for DOT...its all in that link.

imperialmog wrote:

goat314 wrote:I don't see any bright spot in this election outcome. I think if anything the nation will continue down the road of further balkanization. All I hear is tax cuts for the rich and reducing federal involvement in domestic policy. In a state like Missouri, that spells disaster for a city like St. Louis and any aspirations of a N/S Metrolink expansion. In less than a week, N/S went from a 50/50 to a 25/75 in my opinion.

And I wonder if 25% chance is even high, especially with state government being what it is. The other thing is that social tensions is increasing a mass transit backlash and could spur a new round of white flight. Since transit policy is as much a cultural function and dealing with social attitude aspects.

I think the state/Feds tearing up the current Metrolink lines is more likely than getting assistance on an expansion at this point.

My confidence that N-S Metrolink will get built in our lifetime has reached 1% confidence. I just think Metro and regional leadership is too incompetent to build game changers like this in the 21st.century. Add in the fact that the state government has an anti-urban agenda and the future of transit in the St. Louis region looks grim. This is really sad, because I think Metrolink expansion is crucial to the economic development potential of the region. It will be sad to see almost every competitive region blow pass us as St. Louis regresses back into a backwater. Hopefully, I am wrong but I don't see how it gets built.

goat314 wrote:My confidence that N-S Metrolink will get built in our lifetime has reached 1% confidence. I just think Metro and regional leadership is too incompetent to build game changers like this in the 21st.century. Add in the fact that the state government has an anti-urban agenda and the future of transit in the St. Louis region looks grim. This is really sad, because I think Metrolink expansion is crucial to the economic development potential of the region. It will be sad to see almost every competitive region blow pass us as St. Louis regresses back into a backwater. Hopefully, I am wrong but I don't see how it gets built.

I agree with the 1% and agree N/S is crutial to economic development but hold on a minute. We will not be regressing into a backwater. That's just ridiculous. You don't have to name them all but I challenge you to list 5 "competitive regions" that will blow past St. Louis that are more urban and have substantially better mass transit than we already have in place?

Can we have a discussion and come to a conclusion for the #1 reason why metrolink NS is needed...

is it for

A) movement of people.... cant be that based on NS metrolink ridership projections (from 2008 with rosey City pop numbers)...$2.2B will be a HUGE waste to move a small amount of people...we can find much better ways and a smaller cost

B) economic development- this is a tricky one, if pop continues the slow decline this effort will fail too.... will a NS metrolink swing back the city POP in such huge amounts that it will drive economic development- we know that people with money drive economic development, not light rail with 25,000 daily riders.

dbInSouthCity wrote:we know that people with money drive economic development, not light rail with 25,000 daily riders.

That's a fallacy.

Many of these comments elude to the same problem $2.2 billion might be an unrealistic expense to take on at one time. A full N-S build out with full federal matching funds just might not be realistic. An extension of the current system, like Westport or Florissant, or even a reimaging of N-S where it can be broken down into smaller extensions (i.e. An extension down the UNP-De Soto ROW that has been previously discussed here) could be a better starting place.

Just because a $2.2 billion project seems unlikely doesn't mean Metrolink expansion as a whole is.

focus should be on smaller segments and segments that can be successful with ridership, those are in the south end of the NS. Is there political will to push for that? doubtful

MarkHaversham wrote:

imperialmog wrote:

goat314 wrote:I don't see any bright spot in this election outcome. I think if anything the nation will continue down the road of further balkanization. All I hear is tax cuts for the rich and reducing federal involvement in domestic policy. In a state like Missouri, that spells disaster for a city like St. Louis and any aspirations of a N/S Metrolink expansion. In less than a week, N/S went from a 50/50 to a 25/75 in my opinion.

And I wonder if 25% chance is even high, especially with state government being what it is. The other thing is that social tensions is increasing a mass transit backlash and could spur a new round of white flight. Since transit policy is as much a cultural function and dealing with social attitude aspects.

I think the state/Feds tearing up the current Metrolink lines is more likely than getting assistance on an expansion at this point.

Sadly I think the idea of metrolink even existing 5-10 years from now isn't a guaranteed thing to be honest. A lot of it is due to political and social concerns plus a lot of people have become anti-metrolink due to crime fears, especially with a number of recent incidents at stations. I think to be honest, metrolink closing is more likely than N/S at this point (though most likely is no change)

Alex Ihnen wrote:^ That's the most insane thing I've read in quite some time.

I was thinking the same thing. Major hyperbole.

With that said, I've been wondering if the city will pivot from Metrolink and pursue a streetcar on the N-S alignment if county doesn't play regional on the next expansion. I think it's possible we could end up with a N-S streetcar and Westport Metrolink, with BRT in N-S county.

I've kept thinking the streetcar on South City could be done in the context of down the line if the one rail corridor opens up for a metrolink line. That way to have two separate transit lines through South City and say meet at a common point along River Des Peres for connectivity. Basically set it up to allow both to exist without cannibalizing each other.

I think Alex is saying Kingshighway would be the most northern it goes while Keokuk would be the southern boundary? I say just do a street line from Grand in Dutchdown all the way north to Natural bridge. 6 mile line. What would be the cost of that $200 million+? You have the Metrolink stop at Grand for connectivity with both lines and that's it

Good idea.

Enhancing Grand service seems least risky given it's already the most popular bus line.

From the business journal article

The former director of EW Gateway does not like the incremental plan:

"Les Sterman also criticized suggestions that a north-south line could be built incrementally. (Jones, for instance, suggested that a line could be started only in the city, from Cherokee Street to Fairground Park. Others have raised the possibility of a line connecting the new NGA facility in St. Louis Place with the current light-rail system.)

“As a planner and taxpayer, that’s not a good solution long term,” Sterman said."

Kick off for the city study is next week I believe

There won't be a streetcar considered.

End result may give segmented build options, it could give no build option based on ridership etc. looking forward to some of those projections that AECOM comes up with.