urbanSTL

Noticed this on Metro's website. Go go Cross County MetroLink!

For Immediate Release

August 14, 2007



MetroLink Ridership Reaches All-Time High

July 2007 was the highest ridership month ever for MetroLink. For the first time in history, boardings topped 2.3 million in a single month.



...



Early predictions for the Cross County MetroLink Extension forecasted an average of 18,900 additional daily riders by the year 2025. However last month, after only eleven months of operation, MetroLink ridership totaled more than 88,000 boardings per average weekday, an increase of more than 27,000 additional daily riders—much higher than predicted.

Link to the full article

Maybe not the best forum to ask this, but:



Anyone know why the Brentwood/I-64 Station does not have ticket vending machines accessible from the West (Dierbergs) entrance. When I take Metro too and from work I use this station and I have to walk to the other platform, up the ramp, buy my ticket at the bus drop-off area, walk back down the ramp, cross the platform, and then validate my ticket there. (correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought the validation also shows which direction you should be going.)



It's not a huge issue, but I've missed my train a few times and it just seems odd that there would not be ticket machines more accessible to one of the station entrances.

Early predictions for the Cross County MetroLink Extension forecasted an average of 18,900 additional daily riders by the year 2025. However last month, after only eleven months of operation, MetroLink ridership totaled more than 88,000 boardings per average weekday, an increase of more than 27,000 additional daily riders—much higher than predicted.

Whoever made the initial prediction should be fired.

^ It just doesn't pass the laugh test. The "guess" was 18,900 more riders by 2025 and the reality is 27,000 more riders in 2007!?!?! If 200,000 people had rushed to live near the new track I can understand it, but this "estimate" was just a lie. I couldn't have gotten away with this in school and I don't think they should be able to do it here. I'm a huge supporter of Metrolink and understand setting the bar low enough to reach the goal, but wouldn't selling a new line be easier if they were a little more realistic? For the next line I hope they use these numbers (and good analytic skill) and come up with a better guess. It's simply a better sell to say that a new line would add 25,000+ riders now instead of 18,000+ almost 20 years from now.

The projections were made about 5 years ago, maybe more. Makes sense to me why they were low. Things are different these days when the projections were made. Projections should be conservative.

Our federal government requires your regional planners to be overly conservative with ridership forecasting. For example, bureaucrats at the Federal Transit Administation have consistently not allowed St. Louis regional travel models to add more special event trips to forecasts, despite proof of the St. Louis system carrying more non-work trips than any other light-rail system, as well as having the biggest disparity in light-rail verses bus ridership. Put more simply, the feds essentially make regional planners model future MetroLink like bus rapid transit, when the light-rail system has proven increasingly popular among choice riders.

As CC received no federal money, why would the federal government care what it projected?

The "guess" was 18,900 more riders by 2025 and the reality is 27,000 more riders in 2007!?!?! If 200,000 people had rushed to live near the new track I can understand it, but this "estimate" was just a lie. I couldn't have gotten away with this in school and I don't think they should be able to do it here. I'm a huge supporter of Metrolink and understand setting the bar low enough to reach the goal, but wouldn't selling a new line be easier if they were a little more realistic? For the next line I hope they use these numbers (and good analytic skill) and come up with a better guess. It's simply a better sell to say that a new line would add 25,000+ riders now instead of 18,000+ almost 20 years from now.

Metrolink average weekday boardings for July (which is typically the highest month because of lots of tourists, conventions and special events) was 88,000. Illinois comprised 22,000 of these boardings and Missouri 66,000. If you convert this ridership to an "average day" which factors in weekend ridership..averaged over 6 days, boardings hit 91,000 boardings.



Eliminating special events, I think the average weekday boardings were around 75,000 on an average day.



The Metro south "no build" forcast for Cross County in 2025 was 83,000 boardings. Southslider is correct in that FTA won't fully permit St.Louis to use full special event usage in the model. That being the case, we have not really reached the 2025 projection if base ridership is 74,000 in July. It is unfortunate that Special events can't be part of the projections since we have 300 or more special events per year. This is hardly incidental to St. Louis.



You must all realize that the model projected 18,900 boardings on the nine new stations and roughly 38,000 boardings over the full system. We have absolutely not achieved 18,900 boardings on the nine new stations. We are probably around 10,000 which means we are 8,000 below the projected 2025 estimate.



Metro believes that Shrewsbury really needs to double in boarding activity to meet the activity level of the Lambert Branch. That's going to take a while because all of these projections are based upon estimates of future development. Right now we really don't do very well in Clayton compared to the projections. However, each month we have been growing. We are beginning to get businesses in Clayton to subsidize transit passes. Hotels are starting to promote their businesses to conventions where Metrolink access is important. People are looking to buy and rent homes near Shrewsbury, in Maplewood and Richmond Heights because of Metrolink. Eventually, ridership will increase on the current alignment to over 100,000 per day. I would be surprised if aany modeler would have projected that our Metrolink system would be carrying 100,000 per weekday.



If you are riding the system now, you can hardly argue that the activity overall is not impressive. I don't think the modelers were "low balling the estimates." Because you are competing nationally for funding, I am sure that the modelers will try to estimate high rather than low. FTA knows this and watches closely how the model is build and what's included.

Busdad wrote:
You must all realize that the model projected 18,900 boardings on the nine new stations and roughly 38,000 boardings over the full system. We have absolutely not achieved 18,900 boardings on the nine new stations. We are probably around 10,000 which means we are 8,000 below the projected 2025 estimate.

There you go - thanks for the clarification. The projected 18,900 additional riders for the nine stations makes sense, so does the current total of ~10,000. (Oh, and if you did the projection I don't think you should be fired )

I think the metro is really great for the St. Louis area and if you look at how many people are riding the metro we are straight blowing out big sprawl city light rails like Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta. I support metro all the way, does anyone no when they could get started on the North and South City lines.

^One or more County extensions will likely be built first (to Westport for sure, plus possibly Florissant or South County), but if and only if a half-cent sales tax levy passes early next year in the County.

It would seem logical and helpful to consider the metro area's most popular bus routes when determining where tax-dollars should be invested in the next light rail/streetcar/BRT project. I doubt that the existing mass transit that is available in west county is used as much as those in south/north city/county. Like so much speculation on this forum, mine is of little worth without facts to back it up. So, does anyone (Busdad) know where I could find a list of the ridership of Metro's bus lines?



P.S.: Thanks Busdad for all of the informative and insightful postings you bring to this forum.

Wabash, I think the conventional wisdom is that there is nothing to be gained from investing hundreds of millions in a light rail line that is expected to mostly siphon from a bus line (such as a line up and down Grand), which would have ridership regardless. From a policy perspective, you want to attract new ridership instead.

Then I suppose I don't agree with "conventional wisdom". Perhaps bus ridership shows the areas that are most prone to public-transit usage (density should be considered), perhaps there is a pent up demand for rapid transit in certain areas, perhaps the replacement of a highly used bus route (ie Grand) with a cleaner, faster, more psychologically established infrastructure can increase usage further and spur investment. In any case, I did some digging and this list of the 10 routes with the highest ridership is the best I could come up with. It is from Spring 2007.



From East-West Gateways’ Quarterly Publication which can be found here:



http://www.ewgateway.org/pdffiles/newsl ... urrent.pdf



Top 10 Metro Routes:



1.) Grand 334,673

2.) Kingshighway 176,280

3.) Clayton/South County 143,330

4.) Chippewa 142,562

5.) Wellston/MLK 133,992

6.) Delmar 131,560

7.) Hampton 124,986

8.) Natural Bridge 115,608

9.) Soulard 104,804

10.) Page 101,388

As the numbers show, the #70 Grand is not only the busiest route, but nearly twice as many riders as the second busiest route (#95 Kingshwy). If nothing else, then, Grand is worthy of at least enhanced bus service, say an articulated bus, if not BRT or streetcar.



While Metro will easily pledge more MetroLink to entice County voters to support a half-cent sales tax levy this February in the County, the City should at least get enhanced bus service for its added quarter-cent. And while many riders would be switching from the existing service, quality bus enhancements could attract more choice riders, like middle-income households from the Tower Grove/South Grand neighborhoods.

^ In fact, if Danforth and others would really like to enhance life in the city, why not fund a streetcar line up 14th to Crown Candy to North Broadway to Soulard and back up Grand to Chouteau and Tucker? Light rail has been shown to lure investment. Their contribution might actually trigger 10x the investment by others . . . or they could buy some sculpture for the Gateway Mall. Really, these types of amenities sprout up when there are people living nearby who work to get them. We're not going to build a community with floating islands, lawn art and a band shell.

Grover wrote:^ In fact, if Danforth and others would really like to enhance life in the city, why not fund a streetcar line up 14th to Crown Candy to North Broadway to Soulard and back up Grand to Chouteau and Tucker? Light rail has been shown to lure investment. Their contribution might actually trigger 10x the investment by others . . . or they could buy some sculpture for the Gateway Mall. Really, these types of amenities sprout up when there are people living nearby who work to get them. We're not going to build a community with floating islands, lawn art and a band shell.

This is very true St. Louisians just need to be patient. The light rail has already sparked a lot of development near and around it. With more light rail more growth and development will occur.

^Well then, City residents will have to be very patient, as the County will be promised at least one to three more lines mostly to fully outside of the City and within the County. As such, the City is anywhere from second to even fifth (if you think of Madison County too) in line for the next extension.

I like the idea of improved bus service along Grand. Particularly if they were articulated vehicles running on overhead wires. The increased capacity, quieter vehicles and more modern look might attract enough choice riders to justify it.

Mr. Salci, the president of the Metro transit agency, admitted that he had never read the contracts that his agency is suing four construction management companies for violating.

The actual quote in the trial was reportedly " I have not RE-read" the contract.

It's amazing to see how many more people are using the Skinker station. Yesterday I would say over 20 people got off at the evening rush coming from the east. (and all seemingly traveling separate) I would like to see what the new number are.



The same train was also packed because there were 7 bikers and 3 people in wheelchairs. (all appearing to be traveling individually)



BTW Busdad: can you guys get the "Welcome Hurrican Survivors" signs down from all the trains and buses? It's been over two years.