Just wanted to throw out some back of the napkin analysis on a potential Westport line to see what you all think (and also try to revive this thread). Here are my thoughts:
Let's assume a Westport line consisted of the following 5 stations:
Ladue
Delmar
Olive
Ashby/N Warson
Westport
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A couple notes: Ashby/N Warson would basically be the "Lindbergh" station, but would provide more opportunities for park n ride and development than a station directly over or next to Lindbergh. An Ashby/N Warson station would also provide a good transfer/connection point for the 33, 49, 91 and 94 buses. Again, that bus transfer infrastructure might be easier/better just off Lindbergh as opposed to directly on it. Also, a Dielman or Schuetz station could be a possibility, but I don't see either of their costs being justified as their best ridership comps are probably Sunnen, with just 220 riders per day.
I think reasonable comps for theses stations are as follows:
Ladue: Big Bend, Forsyth, Richmond Heights (some residential proximity with proximate employers and retail but minimal bus connectivity)
Delmar: Big Bend, Forsyth (mostly residential proximity - with a slightly stronger bus connection - the 97 - than the comps)
Olive: Maplewood (isolated, but along a major thoroughfare and bus route )
Ashby/N Warson: Maplewood, Brentwood (isolated, but with above average park n' ride, near major thoroughfares and multiple bus connections)
Westport: Shrewsbury (major park n ride with a large catchment area, with proximate employers and multiple bus connections)
Taking the averaged ridership numbers for those comps gives the following:
Ladue: 510
Delmar: 435
Olive: 670
Ashby/N Warson: 790
Westport: 1,860 (Although not along Cross County, Fairview Heights is another good, end-of-the-line, primarily park-n-ride comp, which has similar ridership of 1,930. Also, although potentially comparable in some regards, I think using N Hanley as a comp would be over-optimistic).
Total ridership: 4,265
Average per station: 853
This compares pretty favorably to Cross County's 752 riders per station. However, the ridership per mile would be significantly lower at 533 (Cross County's is 846).
A Westport line would probably cost significantly less on an inflation adjusted per-mile basis, because there would be fewer stations per mile (.625 v. 1.125), and there would be significantly less grade separation, tunneling, road reconstruction, etc... because much of it would run in existing right-of-way (about 1.5 miles of Page would have to be rebuilt, compared to the 3.5 miles of Forest Park Parkway). Cross County cost about $800 million or $118,000 per rider in 2016 dollars. If a Westport line cost 60% as much as Cross County (which seems possible considering it has 56% of its stations and significantly less tunneling, road reconstruction, etc... which significantly inflated and complicated the costs of Cross County) it would come to $112,500 per rider.
In conclusion, if Cross County is justifiable on a cost per rider basis it seems that a Westport line could be as well. Of course, ridership isn't the only goal/end of transit investment - encouragement of investment along the line, corresponding increases in property value, more sustainable travel/transit patterns and more efficient infrastructure deployment come into play with a myriad of other considerations. Maybe more stations like Big Bend, Forsyth, Richmond Heights, Maplewood, and Shrewsbury at a comparable cost is a good idea, maybe it isn't. Just thought I'd put this out there as food for thought and fodder for discussion.
