Looks like the Biz Journal has projected 'terrible' population growth for STL, through 2040.
What in the hell are we doing wrong here!!!? Obviously, we've discussed this topic at length, but there has to be something holding us back that we are not seeing, when you look other parts of the State.
KC is projected to grow 16% while STL only .8% in that same time period!
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news ... j=76088341
http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/ ... ethod.html
The St. Louis metropolitan area’s population is slated to grow just 0.8 percent from 2015 to 2040, seventh worst among all major U.S. markets, according to new projections from American City Business Journals.
ACBJ has generated population projections for 933 metropolitan and micropolitan areas, based on raw data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. Click here for the full methodology.
From 2015 to 2020, St. Louis’ growth is projected to be even worse, at 0.6 percent.
Many areas in Missouri could perform much better; the projections list Columbia in first, with growth of 34.6 percent through 2040; Springfield with growth of 23.7 percent; Branson with growth of 21.2 percent; Fort Leonard Wood with growth of 21.2 percent; Kansas City with growth of 16 percent; Farmington with growth of 11.2 percent; Joplin with growth of 6.8 percent; Cape Girardeau with growth of 5.2 percent; Warrensburg with growth of 2.5 percent; and Jefferson City with growth of 1.3 percent.
Worst in Missouri? Kennett, with a projected population loss of 20.7 percent, to 24,507.
The South will continue to boom, according to the projections.
Austin is the hottest member of this group, poised for a prospective increase of 98.5 percent over 25 years. The population of Texas’ capital region, which reached 2 million last year, is projected to soar to nearly 4 million by 2040.
Seven of Austin’s fellow Southern metros — three of them in Texas — are next on the list of major markets likely to experience rapid growth during the quarter-century: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida (projected increase of 82.5 percent), Raleigh (71.9 percent), Orlando (67.7 percent), Houston (66.7 percent), San Antonio (57.3 percent), Dallas-Fort Worth (53.5 percent) and Charleston, South Carolina (53.4 percent).
The West makes its first appearance in ninth place, thanks to Denver’s anticipated 25-year growth rate of 52.4 percent. Then another Southern (and Texan) metro rounds out the top 10: McAllen-Edinburg at 51.3 percent.
At the opposite end of the scale are five metropolitan hubs — all in the Northeastern-Midwestern industrial belt — that are projected to suffer population declines between 2015 and 2040.
The sharpest anticipated drop is 8.4 percent in the Cleveland area. Also predicted to suffer population erosions are Pittsburgh (projected decline of 7.1 percent), Detroit (3.5 percent), Buffalo (3.3 percent) and Hartford (1.7 percent).
Projecting population trends is as much an art as a science — and often an inexact art at that. But it nonetheless offers an interesting, useful and provocative view of the future.
No one can foresee all of the economic twists and demographic turns that the coming 25 years will bring, but ACBJ’s projections suggest a range of intriguing possibilities. Here are seven additional points of particular interest:
1. New York City will retain first place by a comfortable margin.
Los Angeles is growing at a faster pace, but there is no way it will catch New York atop the nation's metropolitan standings by 2040. It won't even come close.
New York's population will be 22.5 million a quarter-century from now, according to ACBJ's projections. Los Angeles will be a distant No. 2 with roughly 15 million residents.
2. Chicago will drop a couple of notches.
Chicago became known as America's Second City because of its runner-up status to New York in every federal census between 1890 and 1980. But L.A. now holds second place, and Chicago's grip on third appears to be precarious.
ACBJ envisions Houston shooting up to No. 3 with a 2040 metropolitan population of 11.1 million, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth at 10.9 million. That leaves Chicago in fifth at 9.7 million.
3. Philadelphia and Boston will say goodbye to the top 10.
Philadelphia has been on a very gradual decline for a long, long time. It reigned as the nation's second-largest city until 1890, when it was supplanted by Chicago. It is No. 7 in the current metropolitan rankings, though ACBJ anticipates a drop to 11th place by 2040.
Boston is barely holding onto 10th place right now, maintaining a narrow lead over San Francisco-Oakland, Phoenix, and Riverside-San Bernardino, California. All three are expected to pass Boston during the next 25 years, pushing it down to 13th place.
4. Austin will enjoy the strongest rise in the top 50.
No real surprise here. Austin's projected population increase of 98.5 percent is far and away the largest for any major market, so the logical result should be a climb of several rungs on the demographic ladder.
How about an even dozen? Austin currently ranks 33rd in the metropolitan hierarchy. ACBJ expects it to be 21st by 2040.
Raleigh comes next with a projected rise of nine places — 44th now, 35th in a quarter-century.
5. Buffalo will slip the farthest of any member of the top 50.
Buffalo is hanging on by its fingertips, currently maintaining a grip on 50th place in the metropolitan standings. But it will drop all the way to 61st — a fall of 11 notches — if ACBJ's scenario becomes reality in 2040.
Pittsburgh is expected to slip almost as far. It is predicted to drop 10 places from 26th now to 36th by then.
6. Eight medium-sized markets are projected to grow by at least 50 percent in the coming 25 years.
ACBJ's report encompasses all metropolitan and micropolitan areas, not just those beyond the 1 million threshold.
Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, is the hottest growth prospect among metros fitting in the medium category (500,000 to 999,999 residents as of 2040). It's expected to expand by 85.2 percent, reaching a population of 800,000.
Other rapid growers of medium size are Greeley, Colorado (projected increase of 78.5 percent), Provo, Utah (69.1 percent), Fayetteville-Springdale, Arkansas (58.3 percent), Naples, Florida (56.2 percent), Fort Collins, Colorado (54.1 percent), Des Moines (50.1 percent) and Port St. Lucie, Florida (50.0 percent).
7. Six medium metros are likely to be smaller in 2040 than they are today.
Toledo is poised for the sharpest decline. Its current metropolitan population is 606,000, but ACBJ is projecting a 25-year loss of 46,200 (7.6 percent), dropping it to a rough total of 560,000.
Also expected to finish on the downside are Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania (projected decline of 6.9 percent), Dayton (4.9 percent), Akron (3.4 percent), New Haven, Connecticut (3.1 percent) and Syracuse (0.1 percent).
Full breakdowns for all 933 metropolitan and micropolitan areas are available in the database of projections accompanying this story.
