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I was looking at maps on the web site https://crimegrade.org/safest-places-in-missouri/. Go there then zoom in. CrimeGrade.org has crime maps at the most granular level I could find. Looked at the same magnification for 4 cities -- St. Louis, KC, Indianapolis, and Oklahoma City. And at a wider magnification for the state of Missouri.
These maps use colors to show overall crime RATE, and I believe they show the problems with using "per person" stats. First thing you notice is all the GREEN in areas surrounding every city. Crime count may not be that low, but the denominators are so high that the rate looks low.
In the state of Missouri map, it shows several very high crime rate areas in rural parts of the state. But again, this is related to the stats problem in St. Louis City where the rate is driven mostly by the low denominator -- population count.
These maps use colors to show overall crime RATE, and I believe they show the problems with using "per person" stats. First thing you notice is all the GREEN in areas surrounding every city. Crime count may not be that low, but the denominators are so high that the rate looks low.
In the state of Missouri map, it shows several very high crime rate areas in rural parts of the state. But again, this is related to the stats problem in St. Louis City where the rate is driven mostly by the low denominator -- population count.
Along those lines... Political and bureaucratic boundaries can be pretty random. I had a thought were the areas become somewhat dynamic and defined by the criminal activity itself. Not sure how to go about doing it, but maybe some grad student with data and GIS skills could pick it up and run with it. Here goes...
- Identify & map the locations of all homicides (or violent crimes) in an MSA
- Draw a circle that contains, say 80% of all the homicides. This 1) identifies the "epicenter" of homicides in the region and 2) serves as the geography for comparisons with other MSAs. #2 is important since rather than relying on political (city, county) or bureaucratic (ZIP codes, census tracts) boundaries, the crimes themselves define the boundary.
- Determine the population in the circle and calculate the homicide rate within that circle. (You could also determine the homicide rate outside the circle)
- Now you can compare MSAs based on TWO factors: Concentration (maybe a better term here) and intensity. Concentration is how large the circle is or how widespread the homicides occur. Intensity is the homicide rate within the circle.
- Then MSAs can be graphed on these two axis: Concentration and Intensity
So, in other words you could have an MSA where the homicides are widely spread out (concentration) but the intensity is very low. On the other hand you could have an MSA where the crime is narrowly concentrated and very intense in that area, but outside the area it is very safe. The safest cities would have have low concentration and low intensity.
- Identify & map the locations of all homicides (or violent crimes) in an MSA
- Draw a circle that contains, say 80% of all the homicides. This 1) identifies the "epicenter" of homicides in the region and 2) serves as the geography for comparisons with other MSAs. #2 is important since rather than relying on political (city, county) or bureaucratic (ZIP codes, census tracts) boundaries, the crimes themselves define the boundary.
- Determine the population in the circle and calculate the homicide rate within that circle. (You could also determine the homicide rate outside the circle)
- Now you can compare MSAs based on TWO factors: Concentration (maybe a better term here) and intensity. Concentration is how large the circle is or how widespread the homicides occur. Intensity is the homicide rate within the circle.
- Then MSAs can be graphed on these two axis: Concentration and Intensity
So, in other words you could have an MSA where the homicides are widely spread out (concentration) but the intensity is very low. On the other hand you could have an MSA where the crime is narrowly concentrated and very intense in that area, but outside the area it is very safe. The safest cities would have have low concentration and low intensity.
^ Yes, Forest Park appears to be an extremely dangerous place. Primarily because it has a denominator of 0.
Part of the problem with per/capita crime rates is that cities grow everyday by tens of thousands, but if one of those people are victimized or commits a crime, that crime is counted against the permanent population of the city and not the actual population.gary kreie wrote: ↑Aug 13, 2025I was looking at maps on the web site https://crimegrade.org/safest-places-in-missouri/. Go there then zoom in. CrimeGrade.org has crime maps at the most granular level I could find. Looked at the same magnification for 4 cities -- St. Louis, KC, Indianapolis, and Oklahoma City. And at a wider magnification for the state of Missouri.
These maps use colors to show overall crime RATE, and I believe they show the problems with using "per person" stats. First thing you notice is all the GREEN in areas surrounding every city. Crime count may not be that low, but the denominators are so high that the rate looks low.
In the state of Missouri map, it shows several very high crime rate areas in rural parts of the state. But again, this is related to the stats problem in St. Louis City where the rate is driven mostly by the low denominator -- population count.
It is very funny to see Jefferson City the same color as STL and actually darker than Jackson County.
But I question the validity of where this organization got their data. When I press "violent crime", it shows STL City and St. Charles as the same color. And I just don't believe that. Additionally, my neighborhood and a neighborhood like Lafayette Square (which has lots of million dollar homes) are both a pretty dark shade, which I also just don't believe in the slightest bit.
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This Newsweek article with FBI made it to my FYP and STL was not on the top 30 list, but some other MO cities were... not sure if that's a reporting issue or if they are taking the metro area now?
Below are the 30 U.S. cities with at least 100,000 residents that had the highest number of crimes against people, per 100,000, according to the latest FBI data report. https://www.newsweek.com/most-dangerous ... dc-2112006
Below are the 30 U.S. cities with at least 100,000 residents that had the highest number of crimes against people, per 100,000, according to the latest FBI data report. https://www.newsweek.com/most-dangerous ... dc-2112006
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Well crime has been dropping precipitously here. A couple more years of this trend and STL's reputation will hopefully fall out of the public consciousness
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^there was a qualifier that said not all cities reported to the FBI, but when I looked up STLCity we do report to the FBI, though I did read that sometimes cities fall of the list if they report late... anyway, always nice to not be on a list. 
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^ here's another source for violent crime in cities over 250,000 (with the STL City rate below KC and above Minneapolis)
The city's homicide remained the highest tho for 2024.
The city's homicide remained the highest tho for 2024.
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Oops, someone didn't get the memo:pattimagee wrote: ↑Aug 14, 2025This Newsweek article with FBI made it to my FYP and STL was not on the top 30 list, but some other MO cities were... not sure if that's a reporting issue or if they are taking the metro area now?
Below are the 30 U.S. cities with at least 100,000 residents that had the highest number of crimes against people, per 100,000, according to the latest FBI data report. https://www.newsweek.com/most-dangerous ... dc-2112006
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4F8MPyywGJw
And yes, I know it's just the same narrative that's been spread for years. When I heard the AI voiceover and saw what the satellite image was zoomed out on, I still felt a pit in my stomach. Some of the roasts were genuinely funny though. I caught myself cracking up a couple of times.
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At least we were 10th! hahaRagtimer wrote: ↑Aug 15, 2025Oops, someone didn't get the memo:pattimagee wrote: ↑Aug 14, 2025This Newsweek article with FBI made it to my FYP and STL was not on the top 30 list, but some other MO cities were... not sure if that's a reporting issue or if they are taking the metro area now?
Below are the 30 U.S. cities with at least 100,000 residents that had the highest number of crimes against people, per 100,000, according to the latest FBI data report. https://www.newsweek.com/most-dangerous ... dc-2112006
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/4F8MPyywGJw
And yes, I know it's just the same narrative that's been spread for years. When I heard the AI voiceover and saw what the satellite image was zoomed out on, I still felt a pit in my stomach. Some of the roasts were genuinely funny though. I caught myself cracking up a couple of times.
There's a national narrow gauge model/prototype railroad convention coming to STL next month. There was a preview published in a similar themed magazine in which the author shared a personal story from several years ago. He and his wife went to a barbecue place in East St. Louis, and of course shots rang out across the street. He ended his preview by saying "be careful in St. Louis".
So frustrating
So frustrating
https://fox2now.com/news/missouri/man-c ... h-stadium/
Stuff like this makes the news, but a woman was raped in the restroom at the Richmond Heights "The Heights" pool last month and absolutely nothing in the media at all. Wouldn't have known if a buddy of mine didn't work there.
Stuff like this makes the news, but a woman was raped in the restroom at the Richmond Heights "The Heights" pool last month and absolutely nothing in the media at all. Wouldn't have known if a buddy of mine didn't work there.
^How does one go about stealing a gondola? Aren't they those aerial tram things? I didn't even know those were at Busch Stadium.
I get the point of your post, though. Frustrating that stuff like this (which honestly seems like more of a prank that a crime) gets news coverage simply because it happened Downtown, while actual violent crimes in the 'burbs don't get covered. Gotta keep the "downtown=dangerous" narrative up!
I get the point of your post, though. Frustrating that stuff like this (which honestly seems like more of a prank that a crime) gets news coverage simply because it happened Downtown, while actual violent crimes in the 'burbs don't get covered. Gotta keep the "downtown=dangerous" narrative up!
It's called a beer cart. Not sure why Fox 2 felt the need to call it a gondola. It is a cart that had beer in it, probably was left unattended, and the dude just walked out with it and started selling beer to people outside.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025^How does one go about stealing a gondola? Aren't they those aerial tram things? I didn't even know those were at Busch Stadium.
I get the point of your post, though. Frustrating that stuff like this (which honestly seems like more of a prank that a crime) gets news coverage simply because it happened Downtown, while actual violent crimes in the 'burbs don't get covered. Gotta keep the "downtown=dangerous" narrative up!
Busch security and event staff were both grilled about the lapse today.
Oh, ok. Maybe Fox2 wanted to make the crime seem more serious than it actually was. Sounds like a security failure more than anything. Do you know if the cart was actually inside the stadium, or outside in BPV?Auggie wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025It's called a beer cart. Not sure why Fox 2 felt the need to call it a gondola. It is a cart that had beer in it, probably was left unattended, and the dude just walked out with it and started selling beer to people outside.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025^How does one go about stealing a gondola? Aren't they those aerial tram things? I didn't even know those were at Busch Stadium.
I get the point of your post, though. Frustrating that stuff like this (which honestly seems like more of a prank that a crime) gets news coverage simply because it happened Downtown, while actual violent crimes in the 'burbs don't get covered. Gotta keep the "downtown=dangerous" narrative up!
Busch security and event staff were both grilled about the lapse today.
It was taken from inside the stadium, out a gate, and to the street. He was actually caught after he tried coming back in by saying he was a trash man but had no ID or uniform.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025Oh, ok. Maybe Fox2 wanted to make the crime seem more serious than it actually was. Sounds like a security failure more than anything. Do you know if the cart was actually inside the stadium, or outside in BPV?Auggie wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025It's called a beer cart. Not sure why Fox 2 felt the need to call it a gondola. It is a cart that had beer in it, probably was left unattended, and the dude just walked out with it and started selling beer to people outside.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025^How does one go about stealing a gondola? Aren't they those aerial tram things? I didn't even know those were at Busch Stadium.
I get the point of your post, though. Frustrating that stuff like this (which honestly seems like more of a prank that a crime) gets news coverage simply because it happened Downtown, while actual violent crimes in the 'burbs don't get covered. Gotta keep the "downtown=dangerous" narrative up!
Busch security and event staff were both grilled about the lapse today.
This is a weird and almost comical incident. By the way, I just checked, and I was completely off as to what a gondola was. Turns out that it's one of those boats that they use in Venice. Still doesn't make sense as to why Fox labeled the cart as a gondola.Auggie wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025It was taken from inside the stadium, out a gate, and to the street. He was actually caught after he tried coming back in by saying he was a trash man but had no ID or uniform.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025Oh, ok. Maybe Fox2 wanted to make the crime seem more serious than it actually was. Sounds like a security failure more than anything. Do you know if the cart was actually inside the stadium, or outside in BPV?Auggie wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025
It's called a beer cart. Not sure why Fox 2 felt the need to call it a gondola. It is a cart that had beer in it, probably was left unattended, and the dude just walked out with it and started selling beer to people outside.
Busch security and event staff were both grilled about the lapse today.
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It's both, BTW. Gondola can definitely also refer to, for example, an aerial tramway car or Ferris wheel compartment.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025By the way, I just checked, and I was completely off as to what a gondola was. Turns out that it's one of those boats that they use in Venice. Still doesn't make sense as to why Fox labeled the cart as a gondola.
I'm as tough on crime as anybody, but damn; this is just hilarious!Auggie wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025dude just walked out with it and started selling beer to people outside.
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Thank you! Good to know.Trololzilla wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025It's both, BTW. Gondola can definitely also mean refer to, for example, an aerial tramway car or Ferris wheel compartment.Ragtimer wrote: ↑Aug 16, 2025By the way, I just checked, and I was completely off as to what a gondola was. Turns out that it's one of those boats that they use in Venice. Still doesn't make sense as to why Fox labeled the cart as a gondola.
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How Baltimore’s violent crime rate hit an all-time low: ‘This is not magic. It’s hard work’
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/16/baltimore-violent-crime-trump
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/16/baltimore-violent-crime-trump