urbanSTL

I was definitely supportive of ward reduction but it is crazy to see The Hill, Southwest Gardens, Clifton Heights, Northhampton and Southhampton all in one ward. And Forest Park Southeast's placement still seems weird to me though I guess there isn't really another ward that can take it on.

Also, checking the numbers, there are now 7 majority Black wards and 7 majority white wards. There is still an unacceptable level of population variance among the wards though; there is no way to solve those other than shifting wards south, and thus some of the majority black wards are going to have to take on more white residents, probably first and foremost the Midtown Ward. 

Ebsy wrote: ↑

Nov 10, 2021

I was definitely supportive of ward reduction but it is crazy to see The Hill, Southwest Gardens, Clifton Heights, Northhampton and Southhampton all in one ward. And Forest Park Southeast's placement still seems weird to me though I guess there isn't really another ward that can take it on.

Also, checking the numbers, there are now 7 majority Black wards and 7 majority white wards. There is still an unacceptable level of population variance among the wards though; there is no way to solve those other than shifting wards south, and thus some of the majority black wards are going to have to take on more white residents, probably first and foremost the Midtown Ward. 

Looks like proposed Ward J doesn't currently include Clifton Heights. But yeah, still lots of room of closer alignment. Ward N currently has 2,500 more residents than ward E.

Latest revision. Ward E is better.

Downtown+west does from 3 to 2 wards in between drafts, no just extend “A” ward down to Choutuea and we’re all set

quincunx wrote:Latest revision. Ward E is better.
20211111_165652~2.jpg

Yes, this is my ideal option for Ward E as well.


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This looks a lot better to me, though would still be nice to get downtown/downtown west in 1 ward if feasible. I'd also vote to extend F across Delmar into Fountain Park/Lewis Place, and give the chunk of F that goes up to Union to ward E, break up the Delmar Divide a bit. Not sure if that would work out population-wise, though (or politically). Fountain Park just seems like a natural CWE extension to me.

The city's website has a zoomable version of the map here. There are also pdfs with each ward as a separate page here, with deviation from goal population and demographics for each ward listed on the page with a map of that ward. It looks like the largest population deviation is 5.15% from goal, which seems pretty reasonable to me. 7 majority white wards,  7 majority black wards in this map as well. It would be nice if there was a summary table collecting all that data into 1 view.

The Tower Grove East/Benton Park (51.4) and the Dutchtown (50.0) wards are just barely majority black in this version, and given population trends they probably will not be so for long. The West Side ward is also only 55.7% black, so it would not take much change in population for it to drift into a black plurality. The two closest majority white wards are Downtown/Soulard (52.5) and Central West End (54.2) both cover areas that are getting whiter. I feel like the efforts at "racial equity" may end up hurting black representation on the board in the long run, as by the end of the decade it is possible only 4 wards will have a black majority, though they will still probably have pluralities in the three I mentioned.

Those numbers are also total population. When you get to 18 and over and than to registered voters any ward that’s 50-55% black probably has a majority white voter base

^ Ebsy, a bit confused on TGE/BP  wards... I think you are referring to "H" but Benton Park is in "G" and TGE is split into "H" & "I", and both neighborhoods are solidly majority non-Hispanic white.  Anyway, I agree with you that the 51.5% Black "H" area likely will lose it majority Black status soon but it's the still solidly majority-Black neighborhoods like Tiffany, The Gate & Benton Park West that provide that small Black majority margin for now.

As for Dutchtown (plus part of Mount Pleasant & Carondelet) "L," I believe it's the opposite... I'm pretty sure this area gained Black pop share 2010-2020 and I suspect that'll continue for at least the near-term. That could eventually change if gentrification spreads past Chippewa but that may take awhile.  Also I don't know the veracity of it, but I saw Shane Cohn may not run again, and according to a map of the proposed wards that added addresses of sitting Aldermen, he is the only current Alder in that area.  Could be a wide-open district with a new face to emerge.

rbeedee wrote: ↑

Nov 12, 2021

This looks a lot better to me, though would still be nice to get downtown/downtown west in 1 ward if feasible. I'd also vote to extend F across Delmar into Fountain Park/Lewis Place, and give the chunk of F that goes up to Union to ward E, break up the Delmar Divide a bit. Not sure if that would work out population-wise, though (or politically). Fountain Park just seems like a natural CWE extension to me.

The city's website has a zoomable version of the map here. There are also pdfs with each ward as a separate page here, with deviation from goal population and demographics for each ward listed on the page with a map of that ward. It looks like the largest population deviation is 5.15% from goal, which seems pretty reasonable to me. 7 majority white wards,  7 majority black wards in this map as well. It would be nice if there was a summary table collecting all that data into 1 view.

I agree that it'd be preferable to make Kingshighway more of the divide between E and F than maintaining the Delmar divide. But overall this is a good map if the populations are closely aligned. 

Don’t be sorry, being dumb isnt a crime

It’s Chippewa for a small stretch than it looks like either Miami or Winnebago

Is Delmar on the border between two wards here? I thought that was one of the causes of the Delmar divide. I assumed the way to address the divide would be by putting most blocks on both sides of the divide within the same ward in the CWE area.


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B, D and H are quite weird.

What about G? From downtown to Carondelet!

^Somebody just tell these people to use my map and quit pretending to be Churchill and Stalin moving matchsticks around in Poland.

Given that the 5 whitest wards are oversized and the 5 blackest wards undersized. most substantially, an interesting question is raised: is this map an insidious racial gerrymander or a benevolent racial gerrymander?

^I'd guess a bit of both. If you want to have the same number of black and white majority wards then that's probably a necessity. The only way to avoid it might be to allow some wards with no racial majority, which would put them somewhat outside the usual St. Louis political discussion. (Which is probably a good thing.)

Ebsy wrote: ↑

Nov 17, 2021

Given that the 5 whitest wards are oversized and the 5 blackest wards undersized.

Are the population metrics for that latest map available somewhere? 

I think this does. By  Andrew Arkills

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#vie ... bf78160380

It could make sense going forward for the districting map to give a slight advantage to black-majority wards (undersizing them), as "mixed wards" are more likely to become white wards over time due: (i) systematically higher turnout for white population (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... to-change/), (ii) the fact that the city is becoming whiter.

Today's revision

Lewis Reed spoke to us at the FPSENA meeting on Tuesday. He seems to have taken the feedback of some members and myself to add the residential portion of Kings Oak to the same Ward. I am happy to see that as those residents are now included in our neighborhood association.


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