innov8ion wrote:The Central Scrutinizer wrote:innov8ion wrote:Basically, this is what will likely happen. InBev is bringing the major shareholders to their side of the arena (Warren Buffett included.)
Given Mr Buffett's well publicized aversion to debt, I wouldn't assume that he is in favor of this deal.
That's fairly easily handled. SABMiller is likely to purchase A-B's half of Modelo. Some of A-B's non-core assets will be sold.
Given that the eventual price will likely exceed $50 billion, and that the 1/2 of Modelo + packaging + theme parks would only bring in $10-$12 billion (using figures I have seen), that leaves roughly $40 billion in debt.
I would hazard to guess that you will not see him re-invest in the combined company. Why? Too much debt.
innov8ion wrote:
Warren Buffett wrote:
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/05/03/dollar-talk/
“We are happy to invest in businesses that earn their money in the euro, or in companies that derive their earnings in Germany, or from the sterling in the U.K. because I don’t have a feeling that those currencies are going to depreciate in a big way against the dollar,” he said in response to a question from a German shareholder who asked if Berkshire hedged its foreign-currency exposure. “Overall, I think the U.S. is going to continue to follow the policies that have made the dollar weaker in recent years. I’m willing to bet the dollar will weaken against other currencies over the longer term, so I feel no need to hedge those currencies.”
If you know anything about Buffett, you will know his assets bring big non-dollar revenues. A-B's profits are 86% derived from the USA. Tsk Tsk! The InBev deal will help him gain the global exposure/revenues he seeks and practically guarantees success in the huge-growth Far East market.
To the contrary - his assets are still overwhelmingly US based, as are his reveneues. He didn't invest overseas until his purchase of Iscar, 2 years ago.
innov8ion wrote:Given the information above, it seems fairly evident that Buffett will be amenable to an InBev buyout. He'll just keep quiet and stay on the sidelines, because that's what he does.
Given that the information above is largely incorrect, I wouldn't count on that.
innov8ion wrote:He's a puppet-master and didn't become the world's richest man for nothin'.
Wow, not even close. In fact, I would describe him as the exact opposite of a puppet-master, given his well known hands-off approach to his investments.
innov8ion wrote:Do you really think that InBev would be so forward with this move if they didn't have confidence that they had support?
Yes. They don't need him.