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PostNov 30, 2017#501

moorlander wrote:
Nov 30, 2017
The Tim Wentworth video of Tim Wentworth discussing Amazon can be seen here:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/30/express ... rance.html

As Buffalo Springfield would say, "There's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear"

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PostNov 30, 2017#502

from the Citylab article:
"Find the universities that are gaining the most traction in engineering or STEM and you’re going to find an ecosystem that can produce a unicorn. My money would be on St. Louis, because of Washington University, which is starting to attract the finest human capital in the nation. Whoever gets the smartest 18-year-olds, 10 years later, they get a unicorn."

I just looked up the rankings (however meaningful they are) and was very surprised to see Wustl pretty far down the list - I expected them to fall within the top 10-15. They are tied at 40th with the likes of Iowa State, UC-Irvine, Notre Dame, Brown, and Case.

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PostNov 30, 2017#503

gopherlou wrote:from the Citylab article:
"Find the universities that are gaining the most traction in engineering or STEM and you’re going to find an ecosystem that can produce a unicorn. My money would be on St. Louis, because of Washington University, which is starting to attract the finest human capital in the nation. Whoever gets the smartest 18-year-olds, 10 years later, they get a unicorn."

I just looked up the rankings (however meaningful they are) and was very surprised to see Wustl pretty far down the list - I expected them to fall within the top 10-15. They are tied at 40th with the likes of Iowa State and UC-Irvine, Notre Dame, Brown, and Case.
“Norte Dame, Brown, and Case”

that’s not a bad grouping for a STEM ranking?


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PostNov 30, 2017#504

^ No, certainly not bad company - more surprised that they were in the 40th spot and not higher up.

Rankings, for the curious - https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/ra ... mode=table

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PostNov 30, 2017#505

Interesting remarks by the express scripts CEO. Hate to be a debbie downer, but I don't fully get the argument that if Amazon is interested in Express Scripts, it must set up the second HQ in StL. Would there be some synergistic advantages? Not even sure, but let's say yes but then lets ask the question - to what level? It would probably be their largest acquisition I'm guessing, but it's not like they can't send their own bigwigs to operate in StL just as easy right? When they bought Whole Paycheck, I'm guessing Bezos sent some of his own management to Austin to smooth the acquisition which is what I would guess could happen for an Express Scripts acquisition. I am still hanging on the article that quoted some Amazon chief as noting that a good reason for a 2nd location includes being able to attract talent that the Seattle office can't. Pacific northwest is not everybody's cup of tea. In my opinion, it's going to be a very large metro area on the east coast (DC, NYC, Boston, Atlanta).

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PostNov 30, 2017#506

^ i think Express Scripts could be the icing on the cake rather than the entire motivation. St. Louis also offers probably the most central location they're going to find (in terms of US population density and infrastructure) and plenty of room to grow, along with checking many (most?) of the other boxes on their list. i think it boils down to weather or not they're actually serious about that list.

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PostDec 07, 2017#507

Curious how Amazon feels about this. Google is creating what they call a landscraper for their London headquarters. Instead of being tall it is really long and short. Good thing we have plenty of land either way.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/04/how-googl ... e-7130016/

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PostDec 08, 2017#508

gopherlou wrote:
Nov 30, 2017
^ No, certainly not bad company - more surprised that they were in the 40th spot and not higher up.

Rankings, for the curious - https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/ra ... mode=table
But that's just for engineering - WashU (like its more historically liberal arts-focused peers like UChicago/Harvard, except a little more so) is only now in the middle of seriously ramping up its engineering efforts. If you look at scientific research it's much higher and if you especially look at biomedical research it's a top 5 or top 10 place across the board depending on the specific subfield. Also for slightly more (though still basically useless) rankings, better to go with the National Research Council rankings, not US News.

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PostDec 09, 2017#509

^I agree, they are on quite a tear now, about halfway through major expansions and renovations of the department and several buildings. In 5-15 years they will be quite high, i'm sure.

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PostDec 09, 2017#510

gone corporate wrote:
Nov 02, 2017
dredger wrote:
Nov 02, 2017
gone corporate wrote:
Nov 01, 2017
Also: Something maybe, maybe happens before everything else, and maybe soon. Sorry for being so vague. Let’s just keep our eyes open.
Yeah, I know. But, the last time I tried to confirm a rumor, just to see if it was viable, my post was tweeted by someone who reads this site. Then, that tweet was published by the Biz Journal. I posted it on a Friday afternoon; by Monday, that deal was shuttered, and it cost me. I just can't talk too openly about certain things that I anticipate, because there's people out there who'll nail me if I do. That's why I'm largely off this site, too many people read it. I can say that I'm not operating off of insider information; that what I anticipate hasn't closed yet; and that you've talked about it before, Dredger.
Gone corporate, has the something passed, still moving, dead, no update? Thanks!

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PostDec 11, 2017#511

gopherlou wrote:
Nov 30, 2017
^ No, certainly not bad company - more surprised that they were in the 40th spot and not higher up.

Rankings, for the curious - https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/ra ... mode=table
That ranking was about the single worst ranking for Wash U. The undergrad, as a whole is #18. Research Med School is top 10. (Law is #18 and Business is #21)

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PostDec 11, 2017#512

addxb2 wrote:
Dec 09, 2017
Gone corporate, has the something passed, still moving, dead, no update? Thanks!
My eyes are on Express Scripts. I think it's in play, took a long position on it last week. I'm curious to see how far this could go.

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PostDec 11, 2017#513

gone corporate wrote:
addxb2 wrote:
Dec 09, 2017
Gone corporate, has the something passed, still moving, dead, no update? Thanks!
My eyes are on Express Scripts. I think it's in play, took a long position on it last week. I'm curious to see how far this could go.
So how does this translate to STL’s chances on getting AMZN?


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PostDec 12, 2017#514

downtown2007 wrote:
Dec 11, 2017
So how does this translate to STL’s chances on getting AMZN?
I think Amazon is building its business operations by expanding horizontally, picking up new businesses that fall outside of their original mission and strategy. They started first as a bookstore and grew to sell anything and compete straight-up with Walmart, but they’re also a TV network, movie production company, cargo airline, search engine, and offer about 50% of domestic web hosting services. When they acquired Whole Foods, they became a boutique retail grocer. Looking ahead, they’re considering healthcare. They are talking a lot about medical devices, including some chatter last week about dental. They could enter pharmaceuticals, and the best way to do that is with PBM. The data metric intake would be a gold mine of information. Rather than recreating the wheel that is PBM, I think we could see partnership or consolidation with Express Scripts. This comes as the healthcare industry is seeing consolidation between sectors, such as CVS and Aetna. Now, Express Scripts may partner with another healthcare company like Humana, but I think they’d rather partner with the giant sales company that is Amazon. This partnership can range from something that would operate as a joint venture all the way to an acquisition, with HQ staying in STL because moving it would be unwieldy.

Now, should something like this happen, it doesn’t in and of itself mean STL gets HQ2. Still, I believe that Amazon’s interests in building HQ2 involve not just picking a city that can host a tech company but also one that has an attractive company for acquisition. My theory is that a candidate city for HQ2 becomes far more attractive if they have a potential acquisition target for Amazon’s expansion strategy, and maybe it’s the bigger the better. Amazon already has acquired Whole Foods, which I think gives them a foothold in Austin. Cincinnati’s my “sleeper” play for HQ2: in addition to their airport being the hub of Amazon Prime Air, they also are home to Federated Department Stores, which could be one hell of an acquisition candidate. Let’s see how Macy’s does this Christmas season. As for STL, I think they’re interested in working with Express Scripts, and it could be the lure that brings HQ2 to the City.

Meanwhile, it may only be a matter of time, say 5 years, before DOJ steps up with questions of “antitrust” for Amazon as they continue to dominate more industries. Should this happen, it would behoove them greatly to already have a secondary HQ to house certain operations outside of Seattle just in case they have an antitrust issue to address, such as where their acquired targets already are operating and have since built up infrastructure. Until then, it’s time for them to continue expanding by acquiring companies in industries that can recognize increased capabilities through partnership with Amazon’s strengths, from online retail dominance to shared digital consumer shopping behavior and related data sets.

Rewatch Moorlander’s video link. I don’t think a CEO says “partnership” out loud just to hear his own voice.

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PostDec 12, 2017#515

gone corporate wrote:
Dec 12, 2017
[ Cincinnati’s my “sleeper” play for HQ2: in addition to their airport being the hub of Amazon Prime Air, they also are home to Federated Department Stores, which could be one hell of an acquisition candidate. Let’s see how Macy’s does this Christmas season.
Also, Proctor & Gamble...

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PostDec 14, 2017#516

I have to think that 2 new residential towers rising near the proposed site is a positive here.


I'm also curious what kind of spin they might put on the crime data. As we've seen noted in the crime thread there are distinct contrasts in crime/murder rate when you compare rates between north city, central corridor, and south city? Might they only included crime stats for downtown? Or possibly regional crime stats in place of city only crime stats?
From the Amazon hq2 RFP

8. Please include information on your community with respect to daily living, recreational
opportunities, diversity of housing options, availability of housing near potential sites for HQ2,
and pricing, among other information. Please also include relevant crime data and cost of living
data.

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PostDec 18, 2017#517

I like Dave's articles at PD because I think he gives a realistic economic view of things but talk about as good of a summary as you can get IMO of the region's biggest hurdle to overcome when convincing Amazon to come to St. Louis.

The counter argument is very few metro areas in this economy will have the means to fully meet the workforce needs, POTUS immigration policies will make it worse no matter where you look for workers, the needs are over time and probably the best counter argument for St. Louis is centrally located as you can get in pulling talent pools from nearby metro areas.

http://www.stltoday.com/business/column ... cf195.html

For St. Louis, this was the year economic momentum pushed up against the limits of a slow-growing population.

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PostDec 18, 2017#518

^ does anybody fact check anything anymore?

Metro areas with better growth prospects next year are the ones, mostly in the South and West, that attract workers from other parts of the country. St. Louis, in most years, has more people moving out than moving in.
this is just blatantly false and it takes seconds to check. since 1840 there has been only ONE decadal census in which Greater St. Louis did not show growth, and that was 1980. if "in most years... more people moving out than moving in" you would not see consistent growth in the census, for f*ck's sake.

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PostDec 18, 2017#519

urban_dilettante wrote:^ does anybody fact check anything anymore?

Metro areas with better growth prospects next year are the ones, mostly in the South and West, that attract workers from other parts of the country. St. Louis, in most years, has more people moving out than moving in.
this is just blatantly false and it takes seconds to check. since 1840 there has been only ONE decadal census in which Greater St. Louis did not show growth, and that was 1980. if "in most years... more people moving out than moving in" you would not see consistent growth in the census, for f*ck's sake.
Agreed. His articles are really depreciating in intellectual value, and are more-so “St Louis is trash and there’s no hope everyone move now.”




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PostDec 18, 2017#520

urban_dilettante wrote:
Dec 18, 2017
^ does anybody fact check anything anymore?

Metro areas with better growth prospects next year are the ones, mostly in the South and West, that attract workers from other parts of the country. St. Louis, in most years, has more people moving out than moving in.
this is just blatantly false and it takes seconds to check. since 1840 there has been only ONE decadal census in which Greater St. Louis did not show growth, and that was 1980. if "in most years... more people moving out than moving in" you would not see consistent growth in the census, for f*ck's sake.
Their is a difference in growth versus people moving in and moving out which he explicitly states. In other words, three kids are born, one adult dies, and one adults moves to Denver and no adult moves to St. Louis on a given day. Guess what you got? Growth with more people moving out then moving in.

My two cents is Amazon concern is not concerned how many kids were born, not how many people are retired but whether people of working age are coming to St. Louis or if they are leaving. Which gets to the point of the article that he still hits it on the head. St. Louis region is a slow growth region that will hurt its bid for Amazon.

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PostDec 19, 2017#521

The article may state facts but realistically the article is very condescending and suggest St.Louis isn't even worth investing.. Most of his articles are usually very negative and nothing ever positive comes of it.
Good thing that our unemployment rate is at 3.3 just think if it were at 8.3 on how more negative his article would be no matter St.Louis is in a no win situation.

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PostDec 19, 2017#522

St.Louis1764 wrote:
Dec 19, 2017
The article may state facts but realistically the article is very condescending and suggest St.Louis isn't even worth investing.. Most of his articles are usually very negative and nothing ever positive comes of it.
Good thing that our unemployment rate is at 3.3 just think if it were at 8.3 on how more negative his article would be no matter St.Louis is in a no win situation.
I agree, a lot of the way we think in St. Louis is self-fulfilling prophecy. We say the city will never change, so it doesn't. We say people will move, so they do. We say we are the most violent city in America, so it is.

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PostDec 19, 2017#523

St.Louis1764 wrote:
Dec 19, 2017
The article may state facts but realistically the article is very condescending and suggest St.Louis isn't even worth investing.. Most of his articles are usually very negative and nothing ever positive comes of it.
Good thing that our unemployment rate is at 3.3 just think if it were at 8.3 on how more negative his article would be no matter St.Louis is in a no win situation.
From my perspective I really don't read it that way. I take it as a pretty honest assessment of what employers face, those already present/expanding or looking to move into the area, when looking at the St. Louis job market right now and trying to figure talent pool & availability. 3.3% unemployment and job gains is great but it is also a sign that the labor pool is getting very limited with who is still or willing to participate. That means something has to change.

What can change that may or may not have been included in St. Louis proposal to Amazon? Maybe an aggressive trade & vocational training program supported by 4 year universities , maybe doubling down incentives with the likes of launchcode and any other private means/startups to get people trained with tech skills, or heck, maybe just an aggressive housing incentive program & marketing campaign on how affordable the region is.

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PostDec 19, 2017#524

If that's the case then there should be no exceptions and applied to all slow growth regions automatically out of contention.
I can name a whole slew of them including Pittsburgh Kansas City Baltimore Detroit Memphis etc.
Pittsburgh has lost regional population but somehow see's itself in the top 10 maybe top 5. it seems hype will get you everywhere thats why its important for a project like 300 broadway to get the go ahead not only to get people to believe St.Louis is changing to get people to know St.Louis is changing for the better.
If St.Louis can get a handle on the crime yet continue this potential perception changing boom/renaissance then its likely possible you could begin to see an influx of people moving into the region then next will come more jobs.
I don't know I'm just trying to stay positive here there are way too many negative articles about St.Louis from its own people that are always cut throating it.
Lets focus on the positives and build from that.

Not like i'll be butt hurt cause Amazon didn't choose us though it be great if they at least acknowledged us.

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PostDec 19, 2017#525

dredger wrote:
Dec 18, 2017
Their is a difference in growth versus people moving in and moving out which he explicitly states. In other words, three kids are born, one adult dies, and one adults moves to Denver and no adult moves to St. Louis on a given day. Guess what you got? Growth with more people moving out then moving in.
But the scenario you described is still growth, and he doesn't make any such distinction nor does he offer any evidence to support such a distinction. I'm sick of this incessant defeatist bullsh*t from the local media.

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