Greitens in is prob the Democrats' only chance of grabbing the seat.
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Lucas Kunce looks to be another conservative Democrat running from the middle. He'll be eaten alive. What we need is someone genuinely progressive who can speak to St. Louis and Kansas City. His service is laudable, but it won't win him any votes. Getting published in the American Conservative won't help him. Belatedly adopting a pro-choice position won't help him. He's . . . unelectable. We need a progressive. We need someone exciting. We need someone that looks like they live in the city. Someone that talks like they live in the city. That's where the votes are. That's who we need to get out. The Republicans will carry everyone much past the inner ring suburbs, so campaigning to anyone else is a waste of time.
I disagree. I think there is absolutely zero chance a progressive can win a statewide election in Missouri.
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You could say the same thing about Trump becoming the GOP nominee in 2016. It turns out being a rapist is not a negative factor for some.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Mar 22, 2021Democrats in Missouri catch the first break in the #MOSen race, a rapist enters the race on the gop side.
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In true Show Me State fashion, simply being pro-rape wasn't enough for Todd Akin back in 2012
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Looking at the 2016 race and while Greitens lost STL City by the usual 80-16 spread he "only" lost in STL County by 20 points. Recent Democratic nominees have lost STL County by more like 2 to 1.
I think Greitens being from the STL area helped him with suburban voters. Will his issues now cause him to lose the inner suburbs by a bigger margin? If so that is the best route to victory by a Democratic Senate nominee. Run up bigger margins in the urban and inner suburbs and maybe make a dent into the exurbs. Maybe rural turnout will be down without Trump on the ballot and with someone like Greitens as the GOP statewide marquee candidate but don't count on it.
I think Greitens being from the STL area helped him with suburban voters. Will his issues now cause him to lose the inner suburbs by a bigger margin? If so that is the best route to victory by a Democratic Senate nominee. Run up bigger margins in the urban and inner suburbs and maybe make a dent into the exurbs. Maybe rural turnout will be down without Trump on the ballot and with someone like Greitens as the GOP statewide marquee candidate but don't count on it.
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Greitens might just be the crack in the door democrats need to squeeze back into a senate seat, but if history is any indication he will get elected and Josh Hawley will only be the 2nd worst senator from Missouri.
I think more of a coalition is needed that just doubling down on St. Louis, KC and Columbia, which didn't work for Galloway or Koster. Some of the things you list would help show some (Missouri) moderate bona fides, instead of just airing ads pronouncing it Missoureh.symphonicpoet wrote: ↑Mar 23, 2021Lucas Kunce looks to be another conservative Democrat running from the middle. He'll be eaten alive. What we need is someone genuinely progressive who can speak to St. Louis and Kansas City. His service is laudable, but it won't win him any votes. Getting published in the American Conservative won't help him. Belatedly adopting a pro-choice position won't help him. He's . . . unelectable. We need a progressive. We need someone exciting. We need someone that looks like they live in the city. Someone that talks like they live in the city. That's where the votes are. That's who we need to get out. The Republicans will carry everyone much past the inner ring suburbs, so campaigning to anyone else is a waste of time.
^ I agree. St. Louis and KC don’t have enough votes to swing a progressive candidate into office in Missouri. Not even close.
Only ~137,000 people cast ballots in KCMO in November of 2020 for about a 60% turnout. The City’s population is 500,000...not even a full 300,000 people are even registered to vote in that city. None of which surprises me...in local and non-presidential or non-midterm elections KCMO rarely got their turnout rates higher than 20%-30%. Often times it was in the teens...or less.
In 2020 STL County cast over 540,000 ballots at a nearly 80% turnout. Hell the City of STL alone nearly cast as many ballots in November 2020 as the entirety of KCMO...134,000 for about 66% turnout.
The progressive/democratic votes are in St. Louis. Yeah there are clusters around Columbia and elsewhere but the bulk is over here...at least until KC can get their weak voter participation up and maybe Springfield gets big enough to swing Green County blue (doubtful). Until then Missouri is red country.
Only ~137,000 people cast ballots in KCMO in November of 2020 for about a 60% turnout. The City’s population is 500,000...not even a full 300,000 people are even registered to vote in that city. None of which surprises me...in local and non-presidential or non-midterm elections KCMO rarely got their turnout rates higher than 20%-30%. Often times it was in the teens...or less.
In 2020 STL County cast over 540,000 ballots at a nearly 80% turnout. Hell the City of STL alone nearly cast as many ballots in November 2020 as the entirety of KCMO...134,000 for about 66% turnout.
The progressive/democratic votes are in St. Louis. Yeah there are clusters around Columbia and elsewhere but the bulk is over here...at least until KC can get their weak voter participation up and maybe Springfield gets big enough to swing Green County blue (doubtful). Until then Missouri is red country.
To illustrate the point, here are the maps of the latest senate and gubernatorial Democrat victories, respectively (both 2012):
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^ And to further your point...here is what Missouri looked like when Josh Hawley was elected to the Senate in 2018:
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^I wonder if COVID relief will be a chance to flip the script when it comes to the urban/rural electoral divide. Not that I expect it to change it completely but if counties and towns get aid that keeps them afloat will cultural issues be enough to keep them red, or as deep red.
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^See, that's the thing: Galloway and Koster didn't "double down" on St. Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City. They campaigned statewide and no one would confuse either of them with a progressive. I personally campaigned for both of them in Fulton and Fayette and I know other folks who campaigned for both of them in Slater, Centralia, Mexico . . . outstate. By contrast, the get out the vote effort in St. Louis lately has been piss-poor. This is a numbers game. A Democrat would get more votes by improving turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City by a few percent than by doubling their vote share in Calloway County. And turnout here has been so bad an exciting candidate with a good ground game could do a lot better than increasing turnout by a few percent. Koster is genuinely a close friend of a close friend. I don't wish to cast any aspersions on him at all. I've no doubt he's a truly decent guy. But Missouri has changed. I think at this point campaigning in rural Missouri is just wasting effort. We worked hard in Fulton, but we were absolutely clobbered. Just . . . shake the dust off your boots and move on to a town that will listen.
Galloway came across as pretty progressive for me. I remember commenting on the fact that I thought it was a risky strategy to be that progressive while running for a state-wide race, but then shut up as some of the initial polls were way better than I had thought. Certainly if I wanted to maximize chances of winning in her position (ex-ante) I would have tried to run a more conservative campaign and come across as more of a centrist. That might be anger some leftists in STL and KC, but the gains in more conservative areas outweigh those relatively small costs.
I mean, I remember Galloway at some point publicly stating that what triggered her to run for office was a proposed state law banning abortion. That abortion is still considered a progressive issue in the 21st century is pretty sad, but that's how Missouri politics work.
I mean, I remember Galloway at some point publicly stating that what triggered her to run for office was a proposed state law banning abortion. That abortion is still considered a progressive issue in the 21st century is pretty sad, but that's how Missouri politics work.
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I did really think Galloway's message with an core emphasis on competency was effective at the time. IMO what killed it was her COVID policy which was extremely unpopular outside of the blue cities (yes, totally unjustified)
I believe if another candidate ran a similar campaign based solely on qualifications and competency without COVID muddying the waters, they would have a much better shot. Especially against a candidate with as many flaws as Greitens. Greitens makes my generally conservative suburban parents wrinkle their nose and I'm sure they aren't alone. I could see a candidate Greitens having an effect similar to Trump where people turn out specifically to vote against him.
I believe if another candidate ran a similar campaign based solely on qualifications and competency without COVID muddying the waters, they would have a much better shot. Especially against a candidate with as many flaws as Greitens. Greitens makes my generally conservative suburban parents wrinkle their nose and I'm sure they aren't alone. I could see a candidate Greitens having an effect similar to Trump where people turn out specifically to vote against him.
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^Honestly, my thought is not that a candidate needs to be progressive, or even not centrist so much as it is that to win a Democratic candidate will do better by running up the vote in St. Louis than by narrowing the margins in Union. A candidate that could do both would be a unicorn. But I think we've tried the centrist many times. But I can't think of any prominent St. Louis politician who has run for statewide office. I can't think of any prominent African American who has run for statewide office. Someone that could really fire up the base here, who could drive record voter registration and turnout, that person might have a chance. Maybe. At the very least it would be a new strategy.
I can't guarantee they would win, but I don't think any Democrat has a terribly good shot in the current statewide environment. There's a lot of people who have really dug in their heels. The place has gotten more religious, more gun crazed, more angry. I've spent my entire life hiking and camping in Missouri state parks. I don't know rural Missouri anymore. It's . . . painful. Deeply unpleasant. The folks I called last summer, the places I dropped literature and ate lunch, they felt completely different from the rural Missouri I knew and loved for most of my life. I've always gotten tired of the antipathy towards St. Louis you feel even from folks that grew up in Columbia, but now it's something special.
Anyway, that's my two cents.
I can't guarantee they would win, but I don't think any Democrat has a terribly good shot in the current statewide environment. There's a lot of people who have really dug in their heels. The place has gotten more religious, more gun crazed, more angry. I've spent my entire life hiking and camping in Missouri state parks. I don't know rural Missouri anymore. It's . . . painful. Deeply unpleasant. The folks I called last summer, the places I dropped literature and ate lunch, they felt completely different from the rural Missouri I knew and loved for most of my life. I've always gotten tired of the antipathy towards St. Louis you feel even from folks that grew up in Columbia, but now it's something special.
Anyway, that's my two cents.
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^ just f*cking gross. listening to these f*ckers (99% republicans) habitually lie and stutter and repeat and retract and contort language and disregard decency and support villains makes it seem completely hopeless that the US will ever have a functional government again, much less one with any integrity.
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I think a leftist can win Missouri, but I don't think a liberal can. Democrats need to focus on rural economic issues that are important to families and towns. They too often get bogged down in high-minded sacrificial ideological framing. For example, "we need to hand more jobs over to minorities", "we need to stay home from our jobs to protect vulnerable people". They're implicitly assigning the blame for society's ills, and the responsibility for fixing them, on the White Working Class. If they put the responsibility on the wealthy elite, the WWC might be more willing to go along with it. I think merely assigning campaigns a value of progressiveness misunderstands why candidates like Galloway don't succeed in rural Missouri.
Who are you quoting in those examples?MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021I think a leftist can win Missouri, but I don't think a liberal can. Democrats need to focus on rural economic issues that are important to families and towns. They too often get bogged down in high-minded sacrificial ideological framing. For example, "we need to hand more jobs over to minorities", "we need to stay home from our jobs to protect vulnerable people". They're implicitly assigning the blame for society's ills, and the responsibility for fixing them, on the White Working Class. If they put the responsibility on the wealthy elite, the WWC might be more willing to go along with it. I think merely assigning campaigns a value of progressiveness misunderstands why candidates like Galloway don't succeed in rural Missouri.
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I'm paraphrasing liberals.wabash wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021Who are you quoting in those examples?MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021I think a leftist can win Missouri, but I don't think a liberal can. Democrats need to focus on rural economic issues that are important to families and towns. They too often get bogged down in high-minded sacrificial ideological framing. For example, "we need to hand more jobs over to minorities", "we need to stay home from our jobs to protect vulnerable people". They're implicitly assigning the blame for society's ills, and the responsibility for fixing them, on the White Working Class. If they put the responsibility on the wealthy elite, the WWC might be more willing to go along with it. I think merely assigning campaigns a value of progressiveness misunderstands why candidates like Galloway don't succeed in rural Missouri.
You can look at Nicole Galloway's campaign page for more specific examples. She campaigned on a mask mandate, banning discrimination, and "economic incentives." Nowhere did she promise to sue corporations for antitrust violations. She didn't promise to pay people to stay home during the pandemic. She didn't promise to subsidize worker-owned manufacturing co-ops to replace lost jobs. She didn't promise to take money from millionaires and give the cash to regular Missourians.
"Create and expand workforce development opportunities that create pathways out of poverty and teach the skills necessary for family-supporting careers" is not a winning message, it's a half-measure. What rural Missourians hear is, "It's not that Fortune 500 companies stole your jobs, you're just too old and stupid for modern work!"
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Honestly, America is just a modern day Weimar Republic, just without the style.urban_dilettante wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021^ just f*cking gross. listening to these f*ckers (99% republicans) habitually lie and stutter and repeat and retract and contort language and disregard decency and support villains makes it seem completely hopeless that the US will ever have a functional government again, much less one with any integrity.
It's hilarious that some people can defend some of these things and still call themselves fiscally conservative and pro-free markets.MarkHaversham wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021You can look at Nicole Galloway's campaign page for more specific examples. She campaigned on a mask mandate, banning discrimination, and "economic incentives." Nowhere did she promise to sue corporations for antitrust violations. She didn't promise to pay people to stay home during the pandemic. She didn't promise to subsidize worker-owned manufacturing co-ops to replace lost jobs. She didn't promise to take money from millionaires and give the cash to regular Missourians.
"Create and expand workforce development opportunities that create pathways out of poverty and teach the skills necessary for family-supporting careers" is not a winning message, it's a half-measure. What rural Missourians hear is, "It's not that Fortune 500 companies stole your jobs, you're just too old and stupid for modern work!"
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Just like then, US liberals spent 2020 taking a hard look at themselves in the mirror and saying, "We have to compromise more with fascists".Trololzilla wrote: ↑Mar 26, 2021Honestly, America is just a modern day Weimar Republic, just without the style.urban_dilettante wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021^ just f*cking gross. listening to these f*ckers (99% republicans) habitually lie and stutter and repeat and retract and contort language and disregard decency and support villains makes it seem completely hopeless that the US will ever have a functional government again, much less one with any integrity.
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Yep. Hell, I'd even say that Biden's roughly comparable with Hindenburg in this case.