urbanSTL

shimmy wrote:Yes, California stepped to the plate in the bottom of the ninth to deliver a come-from-behind win for Hillary in the popular vote. Congratulations. That won you absolutely nothing.

The problem for Republicans is that the electoral college advantage is pretty random year-to-year. For instance, Obama in 2012: had he lost the popular vote by <1% he probably would still have won the election. It was pro-GOP this year, good for Trump. That, likely as not, won't save them the next time. Their House advantage is safer due to gerrymandering, but that could be dealt with in various ways at some point.

In the long term, whites are going to be a mere 46% of the population by 2065, white men 23%. With demographics like that this year, Clinton would've won by hundreds of electoral votes. So, the misogynist white nationalist Republican party is definitely going away (unless they kill democracy first). It's just a question of when.

Edit: Of course, to lose the popular vote and win the electoral college, you have to lose the popular vote, which Democrats have only done once since 1988. So in that sense, I guess the electoral college advantage is pro-GOP.

Haversham is right the demographics are changing. But there is no "magic dirt". Change out Iowa and Sudan and see what happens.

leeharveyawesome wrote: When white men are a mere 23% of the population where do you think people will "migrate" to?

What does this mean?

MarkHaversham wrote:

leeharveyawesome wrote: When white men are a mere 23% of the population where do you think people will "migrate" to?

What does this mean?

It means you're an idiot.

^So this argument could not be more predictable lol


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The point of my "wow" posts was simple: People on here, and everywhere in this country, don't have the humility to simply state, "I was wrong. My predictions were wrong."

that simple

leeharveyawesome wrote:

MarkHaversham wrote:

leeharveyawesome wrote: When white men are a mere 23% of the population where do you think people will "migrate" to?

What does this mean?

It means you're an idiot.

Okay I assume this is just some Nazi meme I don't understand.

whitherSTL wrote:The point of my "wow" posts was simple: People on here, and everywhere in this country, don't have the humility to simply state, "I was wrong. My predictions were wrong."

that simple

I think most people have been both right and wrong in their predictions. For example, liberals were saying for a while that the Tea Party was more of a white nationalist movement than a principled constitutional conservative movement. Lo and behold, a guy who advocates deficit spending to prime the economic pump while complaining about Mexicans and Muslims vaults to the White House with support not from Rockefeller Republicans or the Religious Right, but the Tea Party.

So personally, the 2016 election has largely vindicated the predictions I was making, with the exception that I underestimated just how willing Republicans are to go along with racism and misogyny.

Is is really a surprise that a user with a screen name like "leeharveyawesome" is a reactionary dunce?

I'll eat crow. I didn't think at all that Trump would win. My parents who voted for Trump thought the same. My next prediction will be how many people who voted for him that'll regret it by year 2 of his presidency

joelo wrote:I'll eat crow. I didn't think at all that Trump would win. My parents who voted for Trump thought the same. My next prediction will be how many people who voted for him that'll regret it by year 2 of his presidency

Yeah I was wrong about the outcome, but considering how the vote shook down in California, etc., I think voter suppression efforts played a larger role than people think. The fist election after the gutting of the voting rights act sees a huge drop in the black vote. Coincidence?

shimmy wrote:The thing Trump has going for him is that his expectations are so unbelievably low that he really can only out perform them. They way liberals are painting it, concentration camps will be popping up in rural Oklahoma by Labor Day, unless World War III starts by then of course.

It's literally the opposite of Obama, who was destined to be a disappointment after he was expected to deliver all but world peace.

He set his own expectations with his campaign promises. If he promises to change things and fight back against Wall Street and corrupt politicians, and then fills his cabinet with Wall Street bankers and convicted corrupt politicians, he'll chase away his supporters. He already may be the least liked president-elect in history, he can't afford to lose any ground.

pattimagee wrote:I was speaking with an elected official a few months ago and they said they had a door to door printout that had only registered voters and their voting history on them - is that really a public document people have access to?

it is....it doesn't say who you voted for but if you're a registered D or R is safe to assume for the most part which doors to knock and not knock to get your voters out.

You don't register as a D or R. You pick which party ballot you want in a primary. That's known.

quincunx wrote:You don't register as a D or R. You pick which party ballot you want in a primary. That's known.

Whether you voted and which ballot you chose in a given primary is a matter of public record, and thus the parties know who their voters are.

It's a little more complicated than that, but yes, basically. It's known whether you voted. I don't know that all precincts record what ballot you pull, but the parties send poll watchers during primaries for the explicit purpose of recording that information. (I have worked as a poll worker and I've been approached to monitor the polls and make that record in Boone County.) And yes, voter rolls are public record unless you specifically have your record sealed for one complicated reason or another. They're not always easily available (some counties do better than others at digitizing things), but they are, I believe by law, always public. Not that this is always reliable. I've found myself knocking on doors I was dead certain belonged to the other party more than once. (For reasons of, oh, yard signs.)

Ebsy wrote:

joelo wrote:I'll eat crow. I didn't think at all that Trump would win. My parents who voted for Trump thought the same. My next prediction will be how many people who voted for him that'll regret it by year 2 of his presidency

Yeah I was wrong about the outcome, but considering how the vote shook down in California, etc., I think voter suppression efforts played a larger role than people think. The fist election after the gutting of the voting rights act sees a huge drop in the black vote. Coincidence?

I think that can be partly attributed to the fact that a Obama, a black candidate, wasn't running for president this year. Overall less enthusiasm for Clinton and turnout reflected that.

Looks like the brouhaha over election fraud allegations in the 5th Ward hasn't subsided.... feds now leading the investigation.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metr ... 6f92f.html

STLrainbow wrote:Looks like the brouhaha over election fraud allegations in the 5th Ward hasn't subsided.... feds now leading the investigation.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metr ... 6f92f.html

Federal investigations into election fraud rarely end without someone pleading guilty.

Was anyone not expecting it? It was pretty obvious from the post dispatch's interviews that fraud was committed