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PostOct 31, 2016#201

Trump isn't unusual because he's factional, he's unusual because he's so far outside the political process and the political norms. Factionalism, as you call it, has been with us quite a lot longer than the United States. And more accurately racial politics was planted in the system so long ago that it's been virtually impossible to pull it out. It's so common it's normal, sadly. Aside from the "factional" issues Robertson isn't a good parallel to Trump, but rather to Sharpton: He's the son of a Senator. He's a quasi-religious figure. He's long been politically active without holding political office. Pat Buchanan worked as a opposition researcher for Nixon. He served as a part of the Nixon and later Reagan administrations. It doesn't get much more insider than that, even if he never held elected office. Ron Paul was a long serving US Representative from Texas. It's a bit rare for Representatives to run for the presidency, but hardly unheard of, if they have a national presence. (And to be fair, he ran as a Libertarian first, and a Republican later.)

I will agree with you that the factionalism and hate Trump is preaching are far from unprecedented. But never in our lifetimes has someone so far outside the political mainstream gotten so close to the presidency. Buchanan couched his awful in code because he believed that's what you needed to do to get elected. Trump isn't bothering. He's not bothering because he's realized that he has a large media following independent of party, and because he has been able to use populist political ideas in a way a conventional Republican could not. (Seeing as the big donors don't like populist economics much.) He's used the language of class warfare in a way none of the folks you mentioned dared. That's what's nearly unprecedented. (And it probably has almost as much to do with his success as the ethnic and religious scare tactics.)

In the end, I don't think we really disagree, save that I find Trump a bit more scary than the other folks you mention. (Slightly. Buchanan and Robertson are both pretty nuts.) Trump is less predictable and would probably see himself as less beholden to the party machine. (To which he largely ran in opposition.) I don't actually think he would be terribly likely to intentionally trigger Armageddon. I don't think he'd single handedly destroy the economy any more than other presidents already have. But I do think he'd be a disaster for policy both foreign and domestic; damaging alliances, screwing up the tax code, imperilling social security, And I do think he's just unhinged enough to try something virtually as foolhardy as Andrew Jackson. (But with less tactical or political acumen.)

All that said, I'm not sure this sort of argument is really the point to this thread. You're welcome to disagree with me if you wish, of course, but If you want to continue the discussion might I suggest we do so by PM? (Or perhaps a private e-mail server.) ;-)

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PostOct 31, 2016#202

We basically know that Trump is running for President solely because President Obama humiliated him at the White House Correspondents' Dinner over the birtherism fiasco. Trump knew that he could not beat Obama in 2012 and was arguably afraid of him, but saw 2016 as a much richer opportunity and Hillary Clinton as a much more vulnerable opponent. I don't know how much of the last part of that I believe to be true, but it is important to attempt see the world as Trump sees it.

PostOct 31, 2016#203

leeharveyawesome wrote:It's time for Roy Blunt to go away. He is the epitome of a crony career politician just like Hillary. Trump's promise of a term limits constitutional amendment is almost enough to get my vote. Both parties have wanted this for a long time (when they aren't campaigning).
Probably not the thread for this, but congressional term limits are a stupid idea. Look at the bang up job they've done in Jefferson City for proof.

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PostOct 31, 2016#204

^Ebsy

Amen!

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PostOct 31, 2016#205

Ebsy wrote:We basically know that Trump is running for President solely because President Obama humiliated him at the White House Correspondents' Dinner over the birtherism fiasco. Trump knew that he could not beat Obama in 2012 and was arguably afraid of him, but saw 2016 as a much richer opportunity and Hillary Clinton as a much more vulnerable opponent. I don't know how much of the last part of that I believe to be true, but it is important to attempt see the world as Trump sees it.
You don't know if you believe Clinton is a more vulnerable candidate? The only reason this race is at all close is because Clinton is the Democratic nominee. If it was Biden then he'd be beating Trump by 15 points.

On the flip side, if the Republicans had nominated someone sane, like Kasich, against Clintom then the race would be similarly over but in their favor.

And that's a depressing thought. We have the two worst candidates in history when we could've had Biden v. Kasich.

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PostOct 31, 2016#206

how is Clinton lumped in that worst candidates in history part? she is literally the most qualified candidate in history.

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PostOct 31, 2016#207

dbInSouthCity wrote:how is Clinton lumped in that worst candidates in history part? she is literally the most qualified candidate in history.
From a politics standpoint, she is the most hated candidate in American history, after Trump of course. Two-thirds of Americans find her untrustworthy. Those numbers would absolutely sink her against any other opponent not named Trump, who just so happens to be the worst candidate in American history. If the only person you could beat is the worst candidate in American history, then that makes you the second worst. And since we're talking candidates, electability is absolutely a determining factor.

Then of course there's the matter of her being under perpetual investigation by the federal government, for either her handling of classified information or for her foundation's questionable ethics (to put it kindly) with foreign governments. The fact that the Democrats' defense against this is that her incompetence and/or unethical behavior hasn't been proven to rise to the level of a federal felony shows how incredibly low she has set the bar.

Otherwise, the claim of her being the "most qualified" candidate in history based solely on the positions she's held (leaving aside the argument of what she's actually accomplished in those positions) just seems factually incorrect. And I don't even have to go back that far. I think George H.W. Bush was a "more qualified" candidate than her (war hero, major business leader, US Ambassador to the UN, head of the CIA, Vice President).

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PostOct 31, 2016#208

You know, for Hillary Clinton being such a horrible politician, she sure has gotten a lot of people to vote for her and has risen further than any other woman in the history of American politics and is extremely likely to be elected President of the United States on November the 8th.

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PostOct 31, 2016#209

how i think this plays out....and looking at 2020 and beyond...i have no idea how the GOP wins the WH again.

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PostOct 31, 2016#210

I think it's going to end up closer than was previously expected, as the race has tightened in states like North Carolina and Nevada where Clinton was starting to pull ahead. And while traditionally Republican states like Arizona and Georgia are now toss-ups, Colorado is now considered a toss-up and Iowa is almost certainly going to turn red this year. Perhaps more importantly, while the recent tightening won't be enough to elect Trump, this final week is going worse than Clinton could have possibly imagined and may very well impact the down ballot races to keep the Senate in Republican control (the House was always a long shot at changing hands anyways).

But to your larger point, ideologically I don't see where the Republican Party goes after this. Trump isn't a conservative in any way. The #NeverTrump candidate in Evan McMullin has openly called for the formation of a new conservative party as he thinks the GOP will be irredeemable. If that's the case then I'll certainly be on board.

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PostOct 31, 2016#211

^^My map looks pretty similar--only I give Clinton a slight edge in Ohio and I think McMullin takes Utah (which would be the first time since 1968 an Independent candidate won a state). I also think the Dems take all districts in Maine for 352 Clinton, 180 Trump, 6 for McMullin

Popular vote break down
Clinton 50%
Trump 44%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
McMullin and others 1%

The new e-mail stuff may have cost her a chance at flipping GA and TX (more remote under even the best circumstances) but most of the chatter around that subject is from those who have hated the Clintons since 1991.

Ignoring the 2012 "autopsy" and doubling down on the white vote will prove to be a mistake for a generation for the GOP.

But the strength of the conservative media industry will ensure that any talk of minority outreach stays just that--talk.

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PostOct 31, 2016#212

Only real clear politics has her as a tossup in Colorado and that site is as basic as it comes. Every other aggregate site has it as leaning democrat with 538 being the lowest at 79%. George and Arizona won't flip, they might be close but no way they'll go democrat. North Carolina is going to be interesting with all the reduced early voting early on but that seems to be evening out compared to 2012 due to more sites opening up. So far it seems no one really cares about the email issue with Comey. Republicans and wikileaks are to blame for that. They kept pushing the leaked emails constantly week in and out that it becomes background noise and seeing that Comey getting backlash from both parties I would agree that it didn't do anyone favors

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PostOct 31, 2016#213

shimmy wrote:Ias the race has tightened in states like North Carolina and Nevada where Clinton was starting to pull ahead.
Nevada early voting firewall for Hillary looks a lot like Obamas in vote count so far...and he won Nevada by 7...
local politics guy on twitter said if Trump wins 90% of GOP vote..wins Independents by 20 and Hillary only wins 80% of Dem vote in nevada, she still wins the state by 2 pts...

as far as NC...nate cohn has a interesting project...he has her winning it by 6 pts
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016 ... .html?_r=1


Any polling this week until election is really irrelevant...the final week is all about getting your voters to vote....Dems have always dominated that aspect of elections...remember final polls had Romney up 1-3 pts and he lost by 4

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PostOct 31, 2016#214


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PostNov 01, 2016#215

symphonicpoet wrote:Trump isn't unusual because he's factional, he's unusual because he's so far outside the political process and the political norms. Factionalism, as you call it, has been with us quite a lot longer than the United States.
Well, the only point I was making is that factionalism is not unusual. All factionalist candidates have their "thing": Robertson's religious, Forbes is rich, Trump is an unrepentant sexist and racist. The point is that their thing is largely appealing to a minority and isn't typically sufficient to do more than attract a noisy following with 20% of primary voters, that fades as the normal people start paying attention. A decade ago, Trump was answering the phone pretending to be his own publicist so he could brag about himself; nobody should've been betting on him as a heavy favorite.
shimmy wrote:Trump isn't a conservative in any way.
I think Republicans have proven this year that loudmouth sexism and white supremacism is the only kind of conservatism they're interested in. You're right, the GOP is definitely in trouble.

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PostNov 07, 2016#216

If Eric Greitens wins St Louis should cede into Illinois.

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PostNov 07, 2016#217

Trump transition eyeing Rudy as AG, Newt as Sec of State, Reince as possible chief of staff
:shock:

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-e ... es-n678881

This completely destroys any idea that he would be surrounded by people who could help 'reign him in'.

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PostNov 07, 2016#218

Chalupas54 wrote:If Eric Greitens wins St Louis should cede into Illinois.
And if Stuart defeats Kay then I'll be more than happy to swap places with you and let you deal with this dumpster fire.

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PostNov 07, 2016#219

Here’s the deal: Donald Trump is going to get his ass kicked. Anyone who says otherwise is either a) afraid of jinxing it and/or making Hillary Clinton voters complacent (understandable); b) afraid of being wrong (Nate Silver); c) supporting Trump; or d) interested in making this a “horse race” for the sake of maintaining public interest (most of the television media, along with grotesque Mark Halperin).

But this isn’t close, and never was. The evidence right there in front of you. Donald Trump has never led in an aggregate of polls for any significant stretch of time. He hasn’t personally raised any money for his campaign in over a month. He lost all three debates. He’s made virtually no effort to get his voters to the polls, instead relying on a Republican party that is being badly outspent and reduced to waging repugnant (and likely illegal) voter-suppression efforts that—despite being successful in some small areas—will ultimately turn legions more voters against them.
https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/donal ... 1788618628

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PostNov 07, 2016#220

What's everyone's opinions on the amendments?

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PostNov 07, 2016#221

If Eric Greitens wins St Louis should cede into Illinois.
Doesn't he live in the CWE? I think if that's the case, he's got to be pro STL. Not saying I'm a fan of the guy, but he's trying to get elected. He's going to say a lot of things he may not personally believe.
What's everyone's opinions on the amendments?
Ammendment 1 - Pro
Ammendment 2 - Pro
Ammendment 3 - Against
Ammendment 4 - Against
Ammendment 6 - Against

I'm for taxing cigarettes, but I don't think taxes should be amendments to the constitution. They are too hard to undo if they prove to be detrimental.

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PostNov 07, 2016#222

Can someone remind me if constitutional amendments need to receive more than simple majority of the vote?

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PostNov 07, 2016#223

Its a simple majority to pass the amendment. It requires 2/3 to repeal it.

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PostNov 07, 2016#224

^ thanks

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PostNov 08, 2016#225

What about this Prop A cig tax for transportation?

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