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PostNov 28, 2023#9501

dbInSouthCity wrote:Sometime people forget that decline is just that, a decline. Meaning something happens less often but it still happens, IE robberies, which happen so far this year at a rate of about 10% less than last year but 600 still happned thought Oct. 
My point exactly.


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PostNov 29, 2023#9502

If the gun slingers can resist the urge for another 48 hours, the 5 homicide November with be the lowest since 2011 when we had 3. 

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PostNov 29, 2023#9503

^refreshing every day - really amazing month. Dear gawd I hope this trend rolls into next year.  🙏

...one interesting thing about crime stats is the lag in PR for them... I will be interested to see how the rest of the country is fairing and how and if we can drop down and/or off of some of these lists...

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PostNov 30, 2023#9504

....12 hours...still at 5 for the month (144 total) 

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PostDec 01, 2023#9505

Debaliviere91 wrote:
Nov 28, 2023
addxb2 wrote:I don’t mean to dismiss fears… but all you can do is take a step back and determine what is St. Louis and what is macro-socioeconomic.

Two dozen daytime robberies in my Chicago neighborhood this Saturday and Sunday alone. Just two years ago we’d see one or two a month.

Hours-long crosstown robbery spree ends with victim shot Friday night, Chicago police say
https://cwbchicago.com/2023/11/hours-lo ... e-say.html

Burglars broke into 5 carwashes and auto repair shops overnight, Chicago police say
https://cwbchicago.com/2023/11/chicago- ... ndale.html
Certainly understand it’s not unique to St Louis, just think it’s an important perspective to keep in mind as we celebrate YTD crime numbers.


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I’m going to celebrate the significant decrease in the number of my neighbors being murdered, thanks.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9506

November's 5 homicides are the lowest since 2011 (3), it was 15 last year & 15.8 the 5-year avg. & a 10-year avg is 14.8. So down 65-67% vs all three of those data points
YTD through Nov: 144 vs 179 last year (-20%), vs 5 year 190 (-24%) vs 10 year 173 (-17%)

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PostDec 01, 2023#9507

This is really great news. Hope the trend continues. 

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PostDec 01, 2023#9508

Legit shot at sub 160 for the year. That would be the biggest year to year % decline in 100 years

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PostDec 01, 2023#9509

Awesome month - here's hoping we can snatch another low month in December. 🙏

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PostDec 01, 2023#9510

I don't trust the data on property crime but it's pretty hard to fudge the numbers on murders. Great news and I hope it continues.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9511

*Starts optimistic*

Love to see it.

*Turns pessimistic*

1. How does this translate next year? IMO, the best St. Louis can expect is an average of 10 homicides per month or 120 annually. Unless there is true socioeconomic change occurring, I’m not sure how much lower next year can go.

2. The city’s population makes it very difficult to get off any list. Leaving the top 10 will require a rate of about 22 per 100,000 or 65 homicides annually.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9512

^I don't think we will continue to decrease at this rate/count or even close to it... I think the best we can hope, and what the city should strive for, is for a small and steady decrease every year. Next year the goal should be to learn exactly which mix of activities/programs are impacting this change, fund them more... and then strive for ~10 less than the previous year, and then walk us down and out of the top ten.

From a PR perspective, we just need to get off of the top spot and then work our way out of it over time. Celebrate the "rate reduction" as best as you can and keep the developments, housing, and job creation rolling.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9513

Isn't it tough to figure out what's working? In 2003 there was 74 homicides. If we new why, and it was due to some gov't and NGO actions wouldn't we have kept doing it?

Also note CQ Press said we were the "Most Dangerous" that year. We'll never get off those lists until the city's population dramatically increases or merger of at least the police departments so it serves a larger residential population.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9514

^ I don’t believe a merger of just the police departments or even the city into the county would change anything. These are place based measurements.

You can only do one of four things:
- Cut the number of homicides.
- Increase population within the 63 sq mi.
- Increase population by expanding beyond 63 sq mi.
- Launch a massive lobbying campaign to adjust the methodology at the federal level, preferably by MSA or county for non-MSA.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9515

I disagree, if say the city and county depts merge and they report numbers to the FBI for the area the merged dept covers, then that's it. The lazy list makers won't bother to get data on the sites of specific crimes to determine which were within the borders of the city.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9516

The official Public Relations memos about City crime stats might go down but they will never say it's because people are being arrested and put in jail.

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PostDec 01, 2023#9517

quincunx wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
I disagree, if say the city and county depts merge and they report numbers to the FBI for the area the merged dept covers, then that's it. The lazy list makers won't bother to get data on the sites of specific crimes to determine which were within the borders of the city.
^I agree this is the quickest way to the goal without upsetting too many people.

And honestly the "reasons" for why they were reduced are going to be a bunch of things, including probably some anecdotal notes from police, but internally there is probably a ton of data to parse over, so I bet you could make a decent assumption off of a handful of the programs/shifts/economics that have changed over the last 1-3 years. 

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PostDec 01, 2023#9518

leeharveyawesome wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
The official Public Relations memos about City crime stats might go down but they will never say it's because people are being arrested and put in jail.
Of the 13 instances where the CA office refused SLMPD request for murder charges, 9 have been during Gores tenure

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PostDec 01, 2023#9519

dbInSouthCity wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
leeharveyawesome wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
The official Public Relations memos about City crime stats might go down but they will never say it's because people are being arrested and put in jail.
Of the 13 instances where the CA office refused SLMPD request for murder charges, 9 have been during Gores tenure
You saying Gabe Gore is soft on crime?

PostDec 01, 2023#9520

What world do we live in when you can basically execute someone on the street and get 8 years reduced garbage sentence? What world is that?

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PostDec 01, 2023#9521

leeharveyawesome wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
dbInSouthCity wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
leeharveyawesome wrote:
Dec 01, 2023
The official Public Relations memos about City crime stats might go down but they will never say it's because people are being arrested and put in jail.
Of the 13 instances where the CA office refused SLMPD request for murder charges, 9 have been during Gores tenure
You saying Gabe Gore is soft on crime?
I’m saying SLMPD detectives still suck at their job but everyone else thought it was Gardner (I mean she sucked at her job but declining prosecution on faulty evidence wasn’t one of those things she sucked at)

PostDec 04, 2023#9522

Only category up YTD Citywide is Society crime, which includes Weapons Law Violations. Those are up 46%, and my theory is that explains decline in shootings, as SLMPD gets more guns off the streets before they're potential used.
IMG_7279.jpeg (298.35KiB)

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PostDec 04, 2023#9523

dbInSouthCity wrote:Only category up YTD Citywide is Society crime, which includes Weapons Law Violations. Those are up 46%, and my theory is that explains decline in shootings, as SLMPD gets more guns off the streets before they're potential used.
There's also been a 17% drop in the number of aggravated assaults with a firearm so far this year which helps support this theory. November (89) was the first month I found with fewer than 100 reports of these assaults (I only found this data going back to July 2021).

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PostDec 07, 2023#9524

St. Louis leaders continue regional crime prevention talks amid drop in homicides

https://www.stlpr.org/law-order/2023-12 ... -homicides

I feel foolish for being optimistic. Everyone is in the room, do something cool!

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PostDec 18, 2023#9525

After 17 days in Dec, we’ve had 5 homicides and at 150 for the year. Over the summer I thought we had a good chance for 170 but now we are two weeks away from 150s. Pretty remarkable progress, anything below 160 would be -20% for year and -41% from 2020

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