Don't think the Air Force would allow me to get into politics, I stay on the margins of it.
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I think the Jan 6 hearings show we're screwed unless we take threats to our democratic institutions seriously.leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑Jun 17, 2022I actually appreciate your lighthearted approach to this madness. You have a future in politics. I'll be your wingman, you know, if you want to make some REAL money. Lmk
Until we decentralize power from DC and government in general we're all f*cked.
It's cute that you think the US is anything like a democracy. There's a robust body of political science research that says otherwise. Here's a useful place to start.Baltimore Jack wrote: ↑Jun 17, 2022I think the Jan 6 hearings show we're screwed unless we take threats to our democratic institutions seriously.leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑Jun 17, 2022I actually appreciate your lighthearted approach to this madness. You have a future in politics. I'll be your wingman, you know, if you want to make some REAL money. Lmk
Until we decentralize power from DC and government in general we're all f*cked.
There is a ruling class consisting of competing capitalist factions. They fight over marginal differences, mainly cultural, but always act together to defend their class interests, first and foremost of which is separating the plebes from their money keeping them fighting amongst themselves.
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its a republic and a representative democracy on a federal level but much of your day to day isnt really impacted by federal decision making, its impacted locally and locally you get to vote on whole host of decsions like property tax, sales tax, income tax and all kinds of other things.
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Prime example: the Donohue-Levitt Hypothesis.downtown2007 wrote: ↑Jun 16, 2022^curious to know what data you’re looking at because the overwhelming numbers from the mid 90’d to 2016 support that more police and enforcement was a major factor in lower crime rates. Broken Windows was not an anomaly.
See: The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime; The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVI, the University of Chicago, May 2001.
(Note: I'm neither a proponent of nor an antagonist towards their research, which has been debated in the 20+ years since this article was first published - and the 17 years since this idea was repeated when Levitt co-wrote Freakonomics. Generally speaking, I'm not looking to argue or even discuss abortion to a serious degree on this thread or this forum.)
Focus: I think we're going deep into this rabbit hole debating documented quantitative versus first-person qualitative analysis on crime in STL. There is great value in anecdotal stories, no doubt. I appreciate reading these posts. But, anecdotal is most definitely limited, which I think we all see. I for one am most interested right now in quantitative data and statistical analysis, i.e. documented crime reports. Concurrently, should there be solid analysis that utilizes Predictive Analytics methodologies on STL crime data that can give reasonable rates of what can be further expected, I'm all ears. Even if people are more attune to anecdotal reports than statistical analysis, it's statistics that define crime rates.
Maybe in form its a republic and a representative democracy, but in outcome there's nothing representative or democratic about it. Aren't you the one telling us how important statistics are for understanding reality? They're right there in the report I linked and dozens of others like it showing that what voters want counts for nothing whichever party is in power.dbInSouthCity wrote: ↑Jun 17, 2022its a republic and a representative democracy on a federal level but much of your day to day isnt really impacted by federal decision making, its impacted locally and locally you get to vote on whole host of decsions like property tax, sales tax, income tax and all kinds of other things.
Doesn't impact the day to day? How many local jobs are directly dependent on the federal government? I can say with certainty that my employer, misc. local health system, takes in ~50% of its revenue directly from federal programs. That's thousands of jobs and 10s of millions of dollars in earnings and other city taxes that are day-to-day dependent on the feds. The policy choices you get to make at the local poles and via local government sure would be different without the feds.
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Don't forget the Lead-Crime Hypothesis.gone corporate wrote: ↑Jun 17, 2022Prime example: the Donohue-Levitt Hypothesis.downtown2007 wrote: ↑Jun 16, 2022^curious to know what data you’re looking at because the overwhelming numbers from the mid 90’d to 2016 support that more police and enforcement was a major factor in lower crime rates. Broken Windows was not an anomaly.
See: The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime; The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVI, the University of Chicago, May 2001.
(Note: I'm neither a proponent of nor an antagonist towards their research, which has been debated in the 20+ years since this article was first published - and the 17 years since this idea was repeated when Levitt co-wrote Freakonomics. Generally speaking, I'm not looking to argue or even discuss abortion to a serious degree on this thread or this forum.)
Focus: I think we're going deep into this rabbit hole debating documented quantitative versus first-person qualitative analysis on crime in STL. There is great value in anecdotal stories, no doubt. I appreciate reading these posts. But, anecdotal is most definitely limited, which I think we all see. I for one am most interested right now in quantitative data and statistical analysis, i.e. documented crime reports. Concurrently, should there be solid analysis that utilizes Predictive Analytics methodologies on STL crime data that can give reasonable rates of what can be further expected, I'm all ears. Even if people are more attune to anecdotal reports than statistical analysis, it's statistics that define crime rates.
If we're keeping perspective using statistics then we should keep in mind that government and capitalists kill an order of magnitude more people than street gunplay, and steal orders of magnitude more money than burglars. Yet, somehow, the cops never burst into Jeff Bezos' house at 3am and shot his dog because they thought they smelled wage theft.
^Great point, Mark. And for all the stat heads in this forum, here's a neat little study from the (possibly communist?) RAND Corporation examining the economic impact of rising inequality since 1975:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html
In short, comparing household income growth and distribution relative to national income (aka, GDP) between 1975 and 2018 reveals that households below the 90th percentile lost about $47 Trillion in total income (meaning households in the top 10%, and especially those in the .01% gained that amount) relative to the Counterfactual income distribution of 1975. I wonder if downward mobility and intergenerational poverty have any effect on crime rates? I wonder if declining incomes has any effect on local government budgets?
What happened between 1975 and 2018? Lots of stuff. Who was in charge? Both parties, intermittently. Seems they at least have one thing in common...
https://www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WRA516-1.html
In short, comparing household income growth and distribution relative to national income (aka, GDP) between 1975 and 2018 reveals that households below the 90th percentile lost about $47 Trillion in total income (meaning households in the top 10%, and especially those in the .01% gained that amount) relative to the Counterfactual income distribution of 1975. I wonder if downward mobility and intergenerational poverty have any effect on crime rates? I wonder if declining incomes has any effect on local government budgets?
What happened between 1975 and 2018? Lots of stuff. Who was in charge? Both parties, intermittently. Seems they at least have one thing in common...
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Definitely not, if this is all factual:SB in BH wrote: ↑Jun 21, 2022^Great point, Mark. And for all the stat heads in this forum, here's a neat little study from the (possibly communist?) RAND Corporation examining the economic impact of rising inequality since 1975:
Though based on that article, surprisingly not as pro-capitalism as one might expect, though.The RAND Corporation is an American nonprofit global policy think tank created in 1948 by Douglas Aircraft Company to offer research and analysis to the United States Armed Forces. It is financed by the U.S. government and private endowment, corporations, universities and private individuals.
Someone thinking that RAND is communist is the most hilarious thing I have ever read. Jesus! Hard to find a bigger contributor to anticommunist activity during the Cold War.
Absolutely, I was trying poorly to convey sarcasm, should have tagged it. And yes, RAND was the CIAs favorite think tank for strategizing against the Soviet Union, including undermining and/or assassinating left-wing movements and governments abroad.Ebsy wrote: ↑Jun 22, 2022Someone thinking that RAND is communist is the most hilarious thing I have ever read. Jesus! Hard to find a bigger contributor to anticommunist activity during the Cold War.
Jeffrey Epstein's good friend Ken Griffin is one of the biggest bullshitters in the business, don't take a word he says at face value.
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Ken Griffin moving away will significantly reduce crime in Chicago, but not the kind of crime that cops care about.Ebsy wrote: ↑Jun 23, 2022Jeffrey Epstein's good friend Ken Griffin is one of the biggest bullshitters in the business, don't take a word he says at face value.
Gee, this doesn't sound familiar...
After mentioning that while many employees have deep ties to Illinois, "many of our Chicago teams have asked to relocate to Miami, New York and our other offices around the world," the letter reads.
In the memo, Griffin called Chicago a “remarkable home” for Citadel, and praised past support from political and business leaders. But he has said in other forums that rising crime has made it harder to attract top talent to Citadel, resulting in the firms adding to their headcounts in other cities while trimming it in Chicago...
In April, Griffin expanded on the crime issue in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. “If people aren’t safe here, they’re not going to live here,” he said. “I’ve had multiple colleagues mugged at gunpoint. I’ve had a colleague stabbed on the way to work. Countless issues of burglary. I mean, that’s a really difficult backdrop with which to draw talent to your city from.”
Source: Ken Griffin Moving Citadel HQ Out of Chicago, Into Miami (NBC Chicago)
Ouch. As difficult as it may be to attract talent to Chicago, it's 100 times harder for St. Louis. Very discouraging commentary on the challenges that post-industrial cities are up against.
After mentioning that while many employees have deep ties to Illinois, "many of our Chicago teams have asked to relocate to Miami, New York and our other offices around the world," the letter reads.
In the memo, Griffin called Chicago a “remarkable home” for Citadel, and praised past support from political and business leaders. But he has said in other forums that rising crime has made it harder to attract top talent to Citadel, resulting in the firms adding to their headcounts in other cities while trimming it in Chicago...
In April, Griffin expanded on the crime issue in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. “If people aren’t safe here, they’re not going to live here,” he said. “I’ve had multiple colleagues mugged at gunpoint. I’ve had a colleague stabbed on the way to work. Countless issues of burglary. I mean, that’s a really difficult backdrop with which to draw talent to your city from.”
Source: Ken Griffin Moving Citadel HQ Out of Chicago, Into Miami (NBC Chicago)
Ouch. As difficult as it may be to attract talent to Chicago, it's 100 times harder for St. Louis. Very discouraging commentary on the challenges that post-industrial cities are up against.
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Had a mass car break-in at work last night. Fortunately my car wasn't affected somehow, but several dozen employees (including one of my coworkers) had their car windows smashed and some had possessions stolen.
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They're real good at smashing heads when the peasants get uppity.mikenewell48 wrote: ↑Jun 25, 2022How Effective Are Police?
TV cops solve crimes. Real cops, not so much.
https://neuburger.substack.com/p/how-effective-are-police
As they say, what a system accomplishes is what its purpose is. The purpose of police is not to solve crimes.
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Half time homicide report
2022; 83 + 3 justified= 86 total
2021; 90 + 8 justified= 98 total
2020; 101 + 8 justified = 109 total
2019; 92 + 5 justified = 97 total
(I included justified because ProPublica did a story that implied that the city has keeping homicides down by classifying some as justified, so now you see the entire total)
2022; 83 + 3 justified= 86 total
2021; 90 + 8 justified= 98 total
2020; 101 + 8 justified = 109 total
2019; 92 + 5 justified = 97 total
(I included justified because ProPublica did a story that implied that the city has keeping homicides down by classifying some as justified, so now you see the entire total)
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http://mochamber.com/wp-content/uploads ... ssouri.pdf
MO chamber has put out a report on crime in the state and offered 8 recommendations to the state legislature
MO chamber has put out a report on crime in the state and offered 8 recommendations to the state legislature
State of MO moving to criminalize homelessness: https://www.kmov.com/2022/07/07/new-mis ... -confusion. Surprise, surprise, bill sponsor is from Chesterfield.
Summary: If a law enforcement officer discovers an "unhoused" person on state property (namely highway overpasses), and there is "offered services or shelter" available, and they don't/won't go there, then the officer can/should issue a warning for the first offense and a citation for subsequent offenses.
Here's the underlying bill: https://house.mo.gov/billtracking/bills ... 3H.08T.pdf.
Actually some decent stuff in there in terms of financial carrots, but check out the big stick in subparagraph 6 and 7 (starting on line 57 on p. 22): Cities with a higher than average share of the state homeless population (StL and KC) cannot prohibit or otherwise discourage LEOs from issuing such citations or else the state will revoke all related funding (and its not clear whether that's only the "new" funding considered in the bill, or any/all related funding the city may already receive(d)).
I want to be optimistic, but knowing the reactionary morons that dominate the General Assembly I suspect the money never materializes and that "offered services or shelter" morphs into "jails."
Summary: If a law enforcement officer discovers an "unhoused" person on state property (namely highway overpasses), and there is "offered services or shelter" available, and they don't/won't go there, then the officer can/should issue a warning for the first offense and a citation for subsequent offenses.
Here's the underlying bill: https://house.mo.gov/billtracking/bills ... 3H.08T.pdf.
Actually some decent stuff in there in terms of financial carrots, but check out the big stick in subparagraph 6 and 7 (starting on line 57 on p. 22): Cities with a higher than average share of the state homeless population (StL and KC) cannot prohibit or otherwise discourage LEOs from issuing such citations or else the state will revoke all related funding (and its not clear whether that's only the "new" funding considered in the bill, or any/all related funding the city may already receive(d)).
I want to be optimistic, but knowing the reactionary morons that dominate the General Assembly I suspect the money never materializes and that "offered services or shelter" morphs into "jails."
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OR this will just encourage more suburbs to drive homeless individuals to the city and drop them off downtown as that's where there are "offered services or shelters" rather than investing in expanding shelters throughout the region.
^Wait, are you really Rep. Bruce DeGroot, R-Chesterfield, or can you just read his mind?? /S
Good point and typical for MO, trying to fix a problem by doubling down on the status quo.
Good point and typical for MO, trying to fix a problem by doubling down on the status quo.