urbanSTL

Borrowing 3 major multiple person shootouts in the next 36 hours we should finish about 9-10 homicides less this January compared to Jan 2021.

Which month should we borrow them from?

We’re on pace for 156 homicides right now - roughly a 20% decrease from 2021.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

By SeattleNative

NextSTL - Dissecting homicide statistics in St. Louis City and looking at 2022 projections

https://nextstl.com/2022/02/dissecting- ... ojections/

15 homicides in January 2021. Same number as January 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020. Short term improvement from 2020. But not a long term improvement. And likely a higher per capita rate in 2022.

downtown2007 wrote:15 homicides in January 2021. Same number as January 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020. Short term improvement from 2020. But not a long term improvement. And likely a higher per capita rate in 2022.

There were 15 in Jan ‘22, 22 in Jan ‘21, and 15 in Jan ‘20


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Missouri legislature considering a new law that creates a rebuttable presumption of self defense in people who use force against another.

Con: death rate rises

Pro: murder rate plummets

JaneJacobsGhost wrote:Missouri legislature considering a new law that creates a rebuttable presumption of self defense in people who use force against another.

Con: death rate rises

Pro: murder rate plummets

Yeah, how do they even count that? All the unknown homicide motives become justified by default?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

"Yeah, how do they even count that? All the unknown homicide motives become justified by default?"
 
Not sure how they do it in your native state of Washington, but here in Missourah all true patriots know that counting is for communists. Shoot 'em all, let the free market sort 'em out. 
/S

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Feb 01, 2022

15 homicides in January 2021. Same number as January 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020. Short term improvement from 2020. But not a long term improvement. And likely a higher per capita rate in 2022.

Lol, Springfield Missouri would give its arm to have same number of homicides as 2013. Every city in the union would. It’s ok to give credit to a black woman

I’m not understanding why anyone would be crediting Jones for any murder rate decrease.

She only took office in April(?). Whatever month it was it was spring 2021. We’re to believe within months Jones policies reduced our murder rate? Only an absolute moron would believe that. The Jones campaign doesn’t even believe that. It’s just that: campaigning and spinning for political reasons.

Per this NYT article, the effect the George Floyd murder had on policing likely began to subside by that time.

Regardless, cities across the country have been in a crime tailspin since Mike Brown — the Ferguson Effect as Sam Dotson put it. And murders began to spike immediately post George Floyd.

Here’s the data:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/brie ... d=em-share

Whatever the causes, it is important to point out that, during the time period mentioned in the NYT article, the STL murder rate trend followed that of other US cities (significant, steady drop starting in the '90s, followed by a spike in the late teens / 2020). However, last year, the STL murder rate diverged significantly from the national trend and dropped dramatically.

Here's the data:

https://time.com/6129859/st-louis-shoot ... -decrease/

Downtown1999 wrote: ↑

Feb 04, 2022

I’m not understanding why anyone would be crediting Jones for any murder rate decrease.

She only took office in April(?). Whatever month it was it was spring 2021. We’re to believe within months Jones policies reduced our murder rate? Only an absolute moron would believe that. The Jones campaign doesn’t even believe that. It’s just that: campaigning and spinning for political reasons.

Per this NYT article, the effect the George Floyd murder had on policing likely began to subside by that time.

Regardless, cities across the country have been in a crime tailspin since Mike Brown — the Ferguson Effect as Sam Dotson put it. And murders began to spike immediately post George Floyd.

Here’s the data:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/brie ... d=em-share

Why not give credit to the SLMPD? Oh wait...that's not good for the politic game.

STL1764 wrote: ↑

Feb 04, 2022

Downtown1999 wrote: ↑

Feb 04, 2022

I’m not understanding why anyone would be crediting Jones for any murder rate decrease.

She only took office in April(?). Whatever month it was it was spring 2021. We’re to believe within months Jones policies reduced our murder rate? Only an absolute moron would believe that. The Jones campaign doesn’t even believe that. It’s just that: campaigning and spinning for political reasons.

Per this NYT article, the effect the George Floyd murder had on policing likely began to subside by that time.

Regardless, cities across the country have been in a crime tailspin since Mike Brown — the Ferguson Effect as Sam Dotson put it. And murders began to spike immediately post George Floyd.

Here’s the data:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/18/brie ... d=em-share

Why not give credit to the SLMPD? Oh wait...that's not good for the politic game.

SLMPD definitely should get credit, they’ve bought into the leadership of Dan Isom and it’s paying off. The odd thing is why isn’t the police union giving credit to its membership for the great work they’re doing, that’s not good for the politic game, huh.

Bringing up Lori Lightfoot is a bizarre move by Jones, her approach could not be more opposite of what Jones' vision for St. Louis is.

How are Lightfoot and Jones different?

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Feb 05, 2022

How are Lightfoot and Jones different?

The all black people are the same crowd has entered the chat

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Feb 05, 2022

How are Lightfoot and Jones different?

I don't know much about Jones, but Lightfoot seems like a real nutjob, most recently in her stand-off with the Chicago Teacher's Union.

Lori Lightfoot is governing Chicago as basically a big city reactionary, on the right flank of the Democratic party. Jones is ostensibly a progressive democrat though with more machine ties than Lightfoot has. I'd say there is nothing similar about them politically.

Well, stating the obvious, Tishaura is a lot easier on the eyes than Beetlejuice….

^What the heck? We're discussing political leadership, not a beauty pageant. Lightfoot looks completely up to the job: she's human and looks reasonably clean and well composed. I'm not terribly familiar with her policy positions, but my friends in Chicago seem fairly satisfied with her. If she and Jones have significant political differences then all the better that they're talking and comparing notes like grown ups. I wish we could still have a conversation across party lines and not just from one end of the party to the other. (Assuming Lihghtfoot and Jones truly are so far apart. Jones may have run as a progressive, but she seems to be governing as a realist. And as someone once said of mayors, everyone picks up the trash the same way.)

Given the degrading trash service over the past couple of years I wouldn't necessarily concede that every mayor picks up trash the same way!

^It's a paraphrase of a quote suggesting local issues aren't strictly partisan. And no, things were quite different before Schoemel instituted Operation Brightside. But hey, the dumpsters work fine. Or at least they do when there's enough staff to collect them and keep them in good repair. So again . . . it's not really partisan in the strict sense.