urbanSTL

Isn't BPV still like, fully leased even with drag racing, gunfire and sh*t that happened last summer? Or was that 2020? I can't remember which year it was.

I also don't think that's wholly true, besides whatever anecdotal takes you have.  If you like an area and have monetary and emotional investment in an area, you're probably not just going to pack up and leave.  Or else every successful turn around neighborhood would have been bulldozed by now.

bwcrow1s wrote:Isn't BPV still like, fully leased even with drag racing, gunfire and sh*t that happened last summer? Or was that 2020? I can't remember which year it was.

I also don't think that's wholly true, besides whatever anecdotal takes you have.  If you like an area and have monetary and emotional investment in an area, you're probably not just going to pack up and leave.  Or else every successful turn around neighborhood would have been bulldozed by now.

95% of the OCW residents aren’t as invested as you think they are and when a bullet goes through their window they’re gone. Most of them are rather wealthy and can afford to move and live wherever they want to.

OCW is down to 90% with concern it will only go lower as these issues continue.

downtown2007 wrote:

bwcrow1s wrote:Isn't BPV still like, fully leased even with drag racing, gunfire and sh*t that happened last summer? Or was that 2020? I can't remember which year it was.

I also don't think that's wholly true, besides whatever anecdotal takes you have.  If you like an area and have monetary and emotional investment in an area, you're probably not just going to pack up and leave.  Or else every successful turn around neighborhood would have been bulldozed by now.

95% of the OCW residents aren’t as invested as you think they are and when a bullet goes through their window they’re gone. Most of them are rather wealthy and can afford to move and live wherever they want to.

OCW is down to 90% with concern it will only go lower as these issues continue.

Hmm where do you see that it’s 90% occupied. It is 98% occupied with five vacant units as of today. There are some upcoming units available in a week or so, end of February, or early March, but no one in commercial real estate views vacancy that way. That would be a metric of leasing pace and turnover.


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dbehrens011 wrote:

downtown2007 wrote:

bwcrow1s wrote:Isn't BPV still like, fully leased even with drag racing, gunfire and sh*t that happened last summer? Or was that 2020? I can't remember which year it was.

I also don't think that's wholly true, besides whatever anecdotal takes you have.  If you like an area and have monetary and emotional investment in an area, you're probably not just going to pack up and leave.  Or else every successful turn around neighborhood would have been bulldozed by now.

95% of the OCW residents aren’t as invested as you think they are and when a bullet goes through their window they’re gone. Most of them are rather wealthy and can afford to move and live wherever they want to.

OCW is down to 90% with concern it will only go lower as these issues continue.

Hmm where do you see that it’s 90% occupied. It is 98% occupied with five vacant units as of today. There are some upcoming units available in a week or so, end of February, or early March, but no one in commercial real estate views vacancy that way. That would be a metric of leasing pace and turnover.


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The people that live there that have had conversations with the leasing office.

If vacancy is rising at OCW, the only proof of which is Downtown2007’s hearsay, it’s far more likely due to the uncertainty of MLB games this summer than a stray bullet.

Hate to bring this bad news for some of you but we are at either 7 or 8 days without a homicide and won’t come close to the 22 from January 2021. Disappointing for some to have to admin that Mayor Jones and PSD Isom know what they’re doing despite the barking dogs at the police union

dbInSouthCity wrote:Hate to bring this bad news for some of you but we are at either 7 or 8 days without a homicide and won’t come close to the 22 from January 2021. Disappointing for some to have to admin that Mayor Jones and PSD Isom know what they’re doing despite the barking dogs at the police union

So at this pace we’re looking at what? 127-128 in a year? Hopefully its under 100!


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"This happens far too often downtown. Almost on a weekly basis it seems. As I explained earlier in this thread, that’s why it’s hard to convince people crime is down with stats. These are real events and people GTFO of dodge when it happens."

"Hate to bring this bad news for some of you but we are at either 7 or 8 days without a homicide and won’t come close to the 22 from January 2021. Disappointing for some to have to admin that Mayor Jones and PSD Isom know what they’re doing despite the barking dogs at the police union"

Both of these statements can be true: some kinds of (or even all) crimes are down, while a palpable sense of danger and lawlessness lingers for those exposed to it directly, e.g. hearing or seeing gunfire regularly.

Also, "learnings" must be the dumbest bit of PMC jargon I've heard lately. Please everyone stop saying it, it makes you sound stupid (not you pattimagee, I see you put it in quotes, presumably because you know its dumb). It's "lessons learned."  Thanks.

A week without a homicide in the City of St. Louis... wonder when the last time that happened!

dbInSouthCity wrote:Hate to bring this bad news for some of you but we are at either 7 or 8 days without a homicide and won’t come close to the 22 from January 2021. Disappointing for some to have to admin that Mayor Jones and PSD Isom know what they’re doing despite the barking dogs at the police union

But haven't you heard that St. Louis is getting more dangerous because... because?

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It’s a long year. We’re only 19 days in. I remember one February several years ago we went 16 days.

downtown2007 wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

It’s a long year. We’re only 19 days in. I remember one February several years ago we went 16 days.

So what you're saying is that you hope that there are a whole bunch of murders so you can have your prior assumptions validated?

Cool story, bro.

In a small city of 300k eventually everyone who was going to be murdered or was going to murder someone is dead (EDIT or possibly in jail).

(EDIT 2) Eventually you run out of people involved in such activities. Or they move to North County or Houston.

This is probably too complex for Bart to understand.

leeharveyawesome wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

In a small city of 300k eventually everyone who was going to be murdered or was going to murder someone is dead (EDIT or possibly in jail).

(EDIT 2) Eventually you run out of people involved in such activities. Or they move to North County or Houston.

This is probably too complex for Bart to understand.

Why do you think that homicides that happen in the City are between city residents? Any given year anywhere between 30-50% of trigger pullers and or victims aren’t city residents

It would be interesting if someone actually put together monthly statistics and demonstrate how correlated January and Total Year homicide rates are. But my gut instinct is that it's not very predictive.

Obviously any month with fewer people killed is good in and of itself.

It’s very telling how hard some posters work to avoid acknowledging a black woman’s success.

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

It’s very telling how hard some posters work to avoid acknowledging a black woman’s success.

I don't see where any of the recent "crime is bad" posts on here really even mention the Mayor, much less her race and/or gender. Pretty sure that's entirely in your head, which says more about you than anyone else posting here.

It's pretty obvious to this observer that she's more politically and administratively competent than her immediate predecessor as she's implemented several initiatives addressing real problems that seem to be bearing fruit, at least based on the available data that Patti and others have graciously provided and reviewed. And she's managed to do so without alienating any of her constituencies (i.e. not the usual reactionaries who are impossible to please and, to your point, may or may not also be degenerate racists). It's likely too soon to say definitively how much those positive statistical trends are the result of the mayor, her policies, and her deputies carrying them out, and not broader societal trends beyond their control. But considering that StL seems to be performing at a higher level than it's peers, then surely she/they deserve some credit. 

Its also totally fair for someone like Downtown to say that his neighborhood still feels like a warzone sometimes, and that most people live through, and make decisions based on, their direct experience, and not some statistical abstraction.  I live in one of the "safe" neighborhoods and I know, statistically, that my risk of being a victim of violent crime is low, but that provides little comfort when I hear gunfire only a few blocks away on a regular basis. My six year old doesn't care that homicides are down x% over last year when he asks whether that sound he heard at bedtime was a gun and if he and his brothers are going to get shot. 

We're very invested in our neighborhood, the city, and the concept of urban living, and so won't be running away to the burbs any time soon. But others more marginally attached will leave if they don't feel safe, even if statistically their relative risk is low/getting lower.

I predicted ten years ago on this forum that County homicides would eventually surpass City homicides. It WILL happen at some point.

The City will always be a magnet for people to converge and possibly murder each other but eventually, if current migration trends continue, the County eventually will have more homicides and then the whole conversation flips.

SB in BH wrote:

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

It’s very telling how hard some posters work to avoid acknowledging a black woman’s success.

I don't see where any of the recent "crime is bad" posts on here really even mention the Mayor, much less her race and/or gender. Pretty sure that's entirely in your head, which says more about you than anyone else posting here.

It's pretty obvious to this observer that she's more politically and administratively competent than her immediate predecessor as she's implemented several initiatives addressing real problems that seem to be bearing fruit, at least based on the available data that Patti and others have graciously provided and reviewed. And she's managed to do so without alienating any of her constituencies (i.e. not the usual reactionaries who are impossible to please and, to your point, may or may not also be degenerate racists). It's likely too soon to say definitively how much those positive statistical trends are the result of the mayor, her policies, and her deputies carrying them out, and not broader societal trends beyond their control. But considering that StL seems to be performing at a higher level than it's peers, then surely she/they deserve some credit. 

Its also totally fair for someone like Downtown to say that his neighborhood still feels like a warzone sometimes, and that most people live through, and make decisions based on, their direct experience, and not some statistical abstraction.  I live in one of the "safe" neighborhoods and I know, statistically, that my risk of being a victim of violent crime is low, but that provides little comfort when I hear gunfire only a few blocks away on a regular basis. My six year old doesn't care that homicides are down x% over last year when he asks whether that sound he heard at bedtime was a gun and if he and his brothers are going to get shot. 

We're very invested in our neighborhood, the city, and the concept of urban living, and so won't be running away to the burbs any time soon. But others more marginally attached will leave if they don't feel safe, even if statistically their relative risk is low/getting lower.

Good post. I’m pretty sure many other rational people would agree and feel the same.

Unfortunately I think there are multiple usernames for the same person on this board.

SB in BH wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

It’s very telling how hard some posters work to avoid acknowledging a black woman’s success.

Its also totally fair for someone like Downtown to say that his neighborhood still feels like a warzone sometimes.

Can we not compare things to war zones- very few have been to them, and being one of few that has, nothing in STL or america is comparable to a war zone.

dbInSouthCity wrote:

SB in BH wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

JaneJacobsGhost wrote: ↑

Jan 21, 2022

It’s very telling how hard some posters work to avoid acknowledging a black woman’s success.

Its also totally fair for someone like Downtown to say that his neighborhood still feels like a warzone sometimes.

Can we not compare things to war zones- very few have been to them, and being one of few that has, nothing in STL or america is comparable to a war zone.

I second your comment! Is it bad yes (seeing some progress) is it war environment bad not even close I was part of the 3ID that invaded Irak and trust me it can’t be compared! Not even close the the Drug lord wars in Puerto Rico that I witnessed as a kid! But for US standards it still bad.


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For comparison, the city has averaged over 300 reported deaths per year from COVID-19, and those deaths are much more likely than homicides to be the white boomers and xennials who buy lofts and run companies and flee to suburbs. So, the homicide rate doesn't seem so bad by comparison, at least in the "abandon the city, imminent danger, don't invest" sense.