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PostAug 26, 2021#776

BellaVilla wrote:
Aug 25, 2021
It was industry wide knowledge that the Cardinals pitching was thin, but they were too cheap to grab some available veterans. But Pitching injuries are not all that's hurt. You point out the failure to re-sign Kolten Wong which was based, in part, on the FO's poor assessment of Tommy Edman's abilities. 
The FO can only work with what it's given. Last offseason, the ownership group gave them the task of improving the team while also telling them they had ZERO dollars to spend. Losing Wong hurts, but that was the price that the FO had to pay to stay within the boundaries set by the owners. The only real money they spent was on two long-time veterans, since the ownership group is conservative and values player longevity (which is why they trade for players and then sign them to stupidly long deals). Other than that, they acquired likely HOF 3B Nolan Arenado in an absolute heist, spending zero 2021 dollars on him. While the deal probably won't look great in a few years when Nolan hitting his decline phase, you cannot argue that it made the team quite a bit better for 2021 while staying within the ownership limits. Edman hasn't been great, but it was easy to see him being ~80% of what Wong is for a lot cheaper. He's also quite a bit younger, too. He's fast and a very good 2B; Shildt just needs to stop playing him every day since we have Sosa and needs to stop playing him out of position in RF. He should also really consider dropping switch hitting and solely batting as a righty.

Was the pitching then? Yes, but you also have to bank on having normal injury luck. Literally no team in baseball can truly be prepared for long periods of injuries to 4/5 of their projected starting rotation, yet the Cards still remain solidly in playoff contention despite that. With normal injury luck, this is a 95 win team. Shildt is just completely inept at managing a bullpen - he manages based on set roles instead of situations and statistics. IDK what Maddux is telling the pitchers, but they really just need to tell them to throw strikes and pitch to contact - you have one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Let the ball find your fielders; that's what they're there for. You don't need to try and strike everyone out, especially considering no one on the team really has elite Whiff rates.
The FO failed to evaluate Luke Voit resulting in the VERY expensive Goldschmidt acquisition that has yet to exceed mediocre returns. Then there's the obvious failure to build a decent bench. 

The FO also failed to accurately evaluate Arozarena, Jose Adolis Garcia, Marco Gonzales, Aledmys Diaz, and Tommy Pham. Each failure to evaluate led to trades where the Cardinals left significant value on the table. 
The FO evaluated Voit perfectly - a mediocre hitter who only shows power because he now plays in an absolute bandbox of a stadium. He cannot field, either. Gallegos has pitched well enough by himself in the bullpen of all places to make up most of Voit's WAR already. That's a pretty damn good evaluation of talent, IMO. The Goldschmidt trade really wasn't expensive at all and the return has been very good. Kelly was blocked - he was never going to get playing time here with Yadi, but it was always assumed he'd be as good as he's been with some regular playing time and improving with the bat. He's also come back to Earth this season. Weaver was never really that good and has been hurt a lot. Young is a AAAA player at best. The draft pick is more or less a non-factor. The Cardinals acquired Goldschmidt mainly to shore up their corner defense - Carp at 1B was horrible, as was anyone else the Cards really had at the position at the time. Goldy is a phenomenal defender, and his far improved defense over Carp at first boosted the defense of the entire infield. They can now throw without worrying about having to be perfect, since they know he'll pick it.  Carp got stuck at 3B for a season and a half, yes, but it's a moot point. You can see in the defensive stats and just by watching just how much better the infield was once Goldy was here. He's still a fine hitter, too - not quite at All-Star levels, but still very good. 

The FO also accurately evaluated every one of those other players you listed. Arozarena bulked up over the pandemic, was hot during a short season, and has now come back to Earth as well. He seems to be a perpetual 2-3 WAR outfielder, which the Cardinals have been good a churning out for many, many years now; he was expendable at the time. JAG isn't good. Gonzales was good for a little bit, but has been hurt and not as effective - he was also out of options and was super far back on the starting depth chart when he was traded, and was also never that great when he did pitch here. Diaz is meh - having a good season this year but more or less an average player. We have the same thing in PDJ. The Pham trade was also good - the Cardinals knew exactly what they had in him: an aging player with a degenerative eye condition. Not a great combo for a baseball player. He had one more very good year in him but has also been fairly average otherwise. The return was pretty good, too - a potential 2-3 starter in Liberatore and huge potential in Williams if he figured it out. Williams seems like a dud (but he's real close to figuring it all out) but Liberatore is definitely looking like he can be a solid ML starter. 

Most trades get sh*t on by the casual fan because of recency bias, but take a step back with an objective view and it becomes a lot different picture. One also has to remember: you do NOT trade players in baseball - you trade contracts.

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PostAug 26, 2021#777

Trololzilla wrote:
Aug 26, 2021
Most trades get sh*t on by the casual fan because of recency bias, but take a step back with an objective view and it becomes a lot different picture. One also has to remember: you do NOT trade players in baseball - you trade contracts.
You're right. My small "casual" brain can't handle your superior logic and becomes derailed by things like recency bias. Objectivity is just not within my feeble grasp, thus I relent. Only through clever front office footwork have Mo and Co. managed to put the team in the following enviable position: 9th in Payroll, 15th in winning Pct, 15th in run differential, bottom half farm system, empty ballpark. Whoopie!

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PostAug 26, 2021#778

...Meanwhile, the Cardinals are just 3.5 games out of the 2nd wildcard spot, with three games against the Pirates coming up. The Reds, the team we're trying to catch, are playing the first-place Brewers. 

Flaherty's setback last night could ultimately serve as a final nail in the coffin for this club, but they are still above .500 despite all that has gone against them this year. It seems crazy to think that this awful, boring, middling team - all the things that it has been called in this thread - still has hope for the playoffs, no matter how fleeting it may end up becoming.

PostAug 26, 2021#779

Jose Adolis Garcia was a player that a bunch of people pointed to early in the season and lamented about how the Cardinals had let him get away. 

And, I suppose if all you gave his numbers were a cursory glance, you might still feel that way about his 27 home runs and 71 runs batted in; but, on the other hand, the guy is 28-years-old, has a .290 on-base percentage, and still hasn't even logged 500 at-bats in his career.

Since May 30, over a span of 275 at-bats, Garcia is slashing an absolutely putrid .218/.265/.407/.673.

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PostAug 26, 2021#780

The same Pirates that just embarrassed the Cardinals in three games at Busch? Our pythag (meaning our expected record based on how many runs we've allowed v. scores) is 60-65. After the brutal stretch of season upcoming, our actual record will reflect our pythag.

PostAug 26, 2021#781

KansasCitian wrote:
Aug 26, 2021
Jose Adolis Garcia was a player that a bunch of people pointed to early in the season and lamented about how the Cardinals had let him get away. 

And, I suppose if all you gave his numbers were a cursory glance, you might still feel that way about his 27 home runs and 71 runs batted in; but, on the other hand, the guy is 28-years-old, has a .290 on-base percentage, and still hasn't even logged 500 at-bats in his career.

Since May 30, over a span of 275 at-bats, Garcia is slashing an absolutely putrid .218/.265/.407/.673.
We literally gave him away for nothing. We desperately needed a player like JAG when O'Neill and Bader have hit the IL this season.  Meanwhile Tommy Edman is running around the outfield.

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PostAug 27, 2021#782

Keep in mind that JAG was also DFA'd in February and went unclaimed by every other team. So the Rangers outrighted him. He's hit for a lot more power this year, but this isn't a case of where the Cardinals missed terribly on letting him go. Every other team (including the Rangers) thought he wasn't worth dedicating a 40 man roster spot to as recently as February.

As for replacing TON and Bader earlier... there's not too many teams who can have 2/3 starting OFs go down and have awesome replacements waiting.  Edman makes for a good 5th OF, although he really should just play 2B full time for his defense there.  So it's really just the FO thinking that Justin Williams, Lane Thomas, and Austin Dean would all be serviceable 4th OF that didn't work out.  The good news is that next year Lars Nootbaar should be the main 4th OF, Edman can still be the 5th OF / super sub with Nolan Gorman possibly able to take over 2B at some point, and hopefully they sign a better veteran backup OF as the emergency-break glass option.

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PostAug 27, 2021#783

Again, we’ve had the worst bench in baseball this year. When we suffered injuries in the OF, our answer was Williams and Edman - bums.

Most embarrassing loss of the season tonight too. But yeah just rotten luck and all.

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PostAug 27, 2021#784

You think Edman is a bum? He's on a 3.5 WAR pace, probably ending up closer to 4 if they just keep him at 2B for the rest of the year.  I don't disagree that the bench has been terrible - replacing Carpenter next year will definitely help.  Signing a veteran 4th OF like Mark Canha would certainly be appealing.  Like I've said in previous posts, Gorman will probably make an appearance in 2022 at 2B eventually, allowing Edman to become a supersub.  So it's not like they need to flip the entire roster. Just one or two changes would make a huge difference.

What they really need is just a ton of starting pitching. Sign two veteran mid-tier starters for depth (heck, see if Verlander would go for a 1 year high salary deal and try to catch some lightning in a bottle) and then whoever doesn't win the rotation battles in spring training can shift to the bullpen and reduce the need to run Gallego and Cabrera out there and wear them down quickly.

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PostAug 27, 2021#785

Disclaimer: I don’t use or value bWAR. fWAR is the superior statistic.

He has a 91 OPS+ a 1.4 WAR. So, when they run him out there in RF, he’s a bum. No doubt. Even at 2B, he’s one of the worst everyday second basemen according to bWAR. If that doesn’t meet your standards of a bum, you’ll love the Memphis Redbirds.

Tommy plays a solid second base but second base defense has lost much of its importance with the advent of the shift. Second base is now where teams try to hide slow footed thumpers i.e. Muncy in LA, and Moustakas and Shaw in Milwaukee because they recognize the diminished importance. For that same reason, the Cardinals were comfortable moving Gorman to second base this season.

I, too, look forward to seeing Edman in the Descalso role where he belongs.


I think this team is more than 1 or 2 changes from serious contention (not this nibbling at the WC crap we’ve been watching for years now).

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PostAug 28, 2021#786

Again, with normal injury luck, this is probably a 95 win team this year. It just needs tweaks, mainly in the bench and starting pitching. The farm's also not quite as bad as it'd being made out to be. Unfortunately as Cardinals fans, we're probably relegated to an eternal 90 wins +/- one SD (~10 games) as part of DeWitt's "no tanking, always be competitive" orders, so no super-teams here.

Agreed on bWAR being trash though. Edman is overexposed as a starter, and it shows. He either needs to split time at 2B with Sosa or be fully relegated to the bench with the signing of a mid-tier FA, at least until Gorman comes up and takes over at 2B full time.

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PostAug 28, 2021#787

The claim that this team wins 95 game with normal injury luck is laughable. They were projected to be a .500 team before the injuries and now with injuries their expected record will 5-10 games below .500

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PostAug 28, 2021#788

^ this team would have won 95 with normal injuries. The pre season projection were just that, you didn’t expect wainwright to be a outside CY candidate, or Jack to start the season 8-0

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PostAug 29, 2021#789

^not a single baseball statistician agree w you

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PostAug 29, 2021#790

BellaVilla wrote:^not a single baseball statistician agree w you
No best case scenario statistical models showed a 95 win season? Everything was going right for the Cardinals early on. Don’t think it was hard to believe that they were on pace for that type of season before injuries hit.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PostAug 29, 2021#791

Yeah, the team was the best in baseball until well into May. Had the injuries not piled up, they're likely looking pretty good at this point.

Also, never believe preseason win projections for any team, but especially the Cardinals. ZiPS has undershot the Card's actual win totals for over a decade at this point, and none of the other models ever really like the team either, even when it's "good".

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PostAug 29, 2021#792

Are you sure you want to double down on the “Edman is a bum” hot take? 😂

Quick edit after that walk off loss - like I said above, what this team needs is just a lot more fresh arms.  Overusing the same three relievers all season long is wearing them down.

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PostAug 29, 2021#793

There were only seven gamedays where they ended the day at a 95-win pace, all in the May 3-14 range (not including the season's first 10 games).

This was after a 12-12 record on April 29. So we're gonna say they're a 95-win team because they had a hot couple of weeks?

This is baseball. Every player and team is alternately bad and good for stretches. Adam Wainwright being really good at (almost) 40 has surely made up for at least one injured pitcher.

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PostAug 30, 2021#794

Cubs were on a 94 win pace on June 2nd. Feels like years ago.

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PostAug 30, 2021#795

Laife Fulk wrote:
Aug 29, 2021
Are you sure you want to double down on the “Edman is a bum” hot take? 😂
Never said he was a bum, just that he's probably not an everyday starter going forward, even with the good series in Pittsburgh. He's not the main concern in the infield, though - that would be DeJong. He's seemingly lost all ability to hit, and was never a "great" defender, just "good enough".  Wouldn't mind seeing him traded this offseason if possible, maybe even Carlson too. Either try to sign Seager or acquire a decent SS somehow, or save money and/or talent by going with Sosa. Sosa is an excellent defender and a fast baserunner, and hitting anywhere close to 90ish wRC+ makes him a pretty damn good everyday SS.

Now the real kicker here was not trading Flaherty at the break - there's just no path I see to him re-signing here, since he seems to (rightfully) want lots of money, and seems to want to go back west. And now with the shoulder injury, which are almost always bad news for pitchers, he may never be as good again. The haul the team could've gotten from trading him to the Dodgers or Padres would likely have been pretty good. Of course, it means you're punting a bit on 2022 already, but it probably would've been worth it to restock a bit. Hopefully they shut him down for the rest of the year and the injury doesn't affect him long-term, but the team may have lost an opportunity there.

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PostAug 30, 2021#796

No, you didnt't.  BellaVilla did.

DeJong's trade value is at an all time low right now.  And his defense is actually near the top of the league: 6 DRS and a UZR/150 of 6.5 in 2021. 2020 was a short sample size, but he was still above average that season. And in 2019 he had 24 DRS (!!) and a UZR/150 of 9.6 - and he was top three in voting for the Gold Glove that year too.  His bat is streaky, but his defense is not an issue.  May not have many web gems, but he gets to a lot more balls than people realize.

And Jack Flaherty isn't a free agent until 2024. Why would they trade him this early when he's even said within the last year that him bolting in Free Agency isn't inevitable.

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PostAug 31, 2021#797

I don't put much stock in most defensive stats, to be honest. DeJong is usually "fine" at short, but most of his defensive value likely comes from positioning rather than inherent ability, and he's not getting younger. His bat has also gotten worse every season since 2018. He runs into balls sometimes, but the dude has just looked lost at the plate an annoyingly high amount of the time. Just no pitch recognition most of the time and flailing wildly at stuff 8 inches of the plate regularly. He's not even being screwed at the plate by umps, like O'Neill is. 

I just don't see Flaherty re-signing here. He's already stated that he's not going to sign a deal before FA, and he seems to really want to go out west. Even if he has no preference geographically, I really don't see DeWitt ponying up the money to sign him. He wants top dollar, and he's going to get it barring anything catastrophic. I see the team making a definite effort to keep him and they'll probably make a strong offer, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the price go past their "puke point". 

Trading him early stems from my philosophy that this team just doesn't take the risks sometimes. Hicks should've been traded years ago, for example. He was just a ticking time bomb for an injury. Don't think Flaherty is injury prone, but the amount of talent and future value the team could've acquired by trading him this trade deadline could've been enormous, particularly since pitching was an extremely valued commodity with according prices.

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PostSep 01, 2021#798

Yeah he's a bum. Glad to see you're gloating after a supposed "95-win" team just went 3-4 against the cellar dwelling Pirates.

Btw, did you see Wong tear the Cardinals a new ***hole publicly? But yeah, nothing to see here, amirite?

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PostSep 01, 2021#799

BellaVilla wrote:
Sep 01, 2021
Yeah he's a bum. Glad to see you're gloating after a supposed "95-win" team just went 3-4 against the cellar dwelling Pirates.

Btw, did you see Wong tear the Cardinals a new ***hole publicly? But yeah, nothing to see here, amirite?
Tommy Edman is a better player, statistically and is $10m a year cheaper.

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PostSep 01, 2021#800

And why are you moving the goal posts of your hot take that "Edman is a bum" to the overall team's record / comparing him to Wong? Let's keep the arguments straight here and not cross the streams.

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