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PostSep 18, 2017#3826

jshank83 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
Chalupas54 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017

It's not us. Probably not North America.
You could have at least given us a day to be optimistic! lol
Haha, I'm sorry! :*(

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PostSep 18, 2017#3827

Well it was a 789 they were using to start something which is almost certainly not going to be what they would use to start here which would be a 788 . Though keep thinking more that the dots are connecting a lot that when one is available you might hear something since theres as much if not more smoke than before.

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PostSep 18, 2017#3828

I think it could be us. $4 Million in incentives could have just snagged them. We will see tomorrow.

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PostSep 18, 2017#3829

Chalupas54 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
jshank83 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
Chalupas54 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017

It's not us. Probably not North America.
You could have at least given us a day to be optimistic! lol
Haha, I'm sorry! :*(
HAHA! LOL!

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PostSep 18, 2017#3830

Chalupas54 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
I think it could be us. $4 Million in incentives could have just snagged them. We will see tomorrow.
That's true, that is something that could have sealed it and the question is when it could start. I think they were only looking around half that amount and if they only got that much theres likely money left over for others. The place they served before would be the biggest reason its not, unless you count things they acquired.

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PostSep 18, 2017#3831

imperialmog wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
Chalupas54 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
I think it could be us. $4 Million in incentives could have just snagged them. We will see tomorrow.
That's true, that is something that could have sealed it and the question is when it could start. I think they were only looking around half that amount and if they only got that much theres likely money left over for others. The place they served before would be the biggest reason its not, unless you count things they acquired.
A good point. I don't believe it could be PIT actually after doing some brief research. Their passenger yields to Europe are really covered. It would probably be very hard fill a 789 to LHR from PIT. But again, if it is STL, I would be kinda surprised as we haven't heard much on this for a while.

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PostSep 18, 2017#3832

Rumors are Seychelles. It is only 2x weekly so that would make sense

It is NOT

PIT
Perth
Osaka
Jakarta
Bogata
HNL
ANC
DTW
CLT
MEL
ISB
KHI
KUL/AKL?
New York (Don't they already fly there)
Vietnam

PostSep 18, 2017#3833


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PostSep 19, 2017#3834

jshank83 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
Rumors are Seychelles. It is only 2x weekly so that would make sense
Confirmed.

-RBB

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PostSep 19, 2017#3835

jshank83 wrote:
Sep 18, 2017
More privatization talk.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt ... 8ce38.html
And even more privatization talk, this time in editorial form. The second is a guest column that includes the airport director as a guest columnist.

http://www.stltoday.com/opinion/editori ... 37179.html

http://www.stltoday.com/opinion/columni ... 44e84.html

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PostSep 19, 2017#3836

Word I've heard from some cohorts of mine is the prelimary figures for this transaction have blown the STL leaders away. Let's see if the dough is there come real negotiation time....

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PostSep 19, 2017#3837

The BA route is for the Seychelles.

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PostSep 19, 2017#3838

whitherSTL wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
Word I've heard from some cohorts of mine is the prelimary figures for this transaction have blown the STL leaders away. Let's see if the dough is there come real negotiation time....
For privatization?

PostSep 19, 2017#3839

2016 official airport stats are out.

STL 37th in North America. 1.5 mil behind Dallas, 1 mil ahead of Nashville. We are only around 90 mil behind Atlanta! Watch out!

http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports

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PostSep 19, 2017#3840

jshank83 wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
2016 official airport stats are out.

STL 37th in North America. 1.5 mil behind Dallas, 1 mil ahead of Nashville. We are only around 90 mil behind Atlanta! Watch out!

http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports
Looks like 36th to me. We're already moving up?

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PostSep 19, 2017#3841

FY I believe was 14.4 Million.

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PostSep 19, 2017#3842

gary kreie wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
jshank83 wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
2016 official airport stats are out.

STL 37th in North America. 1.5 mil behind Dallas, 1 mil ahead of Nashville. We are only around 90 mil behind Atlanta! Watch out!

http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports
Looks like 36th to me. We're already moving up?
You are right, I just can't type correctly. haha.

PostSep 19, 2017#3843

Frontier extended their schedule today for next summer. Looks like nothing new and ATL was cut. A little surprised since I thought ATL had decent numbers so for this summer.

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PostSep 19, 2017#3844

jshank83 wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
gary kreie wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
jshank83 wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
2016 official airport stats are out.

STL 37th in North America. 1.5 mil behind Dallas, 1 mil ahead of Nashville. We are only around 90 mil behind Atlanta! Watch out!

http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports
Looks like 36th to me. We're already moving up?
You are right, I just can't type correctly. haha.
And 5th biggest change over last year:

Nashville TN 11.2 %
Raleigh-Durham NC 11.1 %
San Jose CA 10.2 %
Vancouver BC 9.6 %
St Louis MO 9.5 %

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PostSep 19, 2017#3845

gary kreie wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
jshank83 wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
2016 official airport stats are out.

STL 37th in North America. 1.5 mil behind Dallas, 1 mil ahead of Nashville. We are only around 90 mil behind Atlanta! Watch out!

http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports
Looks like 36th to me. We're already moving up?
Lambert is in a hole of sorts, which will prevent us from moving up (or down) in the rankings any time soon -- we are just under 1 million passengers ahead of BNA and 1.6 million behind DAL.

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PostSep 20, 2017#3846

gregl wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
gary kreie wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
jshank83 wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
2016 official airport stats are out.

STL 37th in North America. 1.5 mil behind Dallas, 1 mil ahead of Nashville. We are only around 90 mil behind Atlanta! Watch out!

http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports
Looks like 36th to me. We're already moving up?
Lambert is in a hole of sorts, which will prevent us from moving up (or down) in the rankings any time soon -- we are just under 1 million passengers ahead of BNA and 1.6 million behind DAL.
If growth continues at presents rates, and that's a big but plausible if, then things will start to move in 2018 or so, believe it or not. Of course, it's a given that present rates will change, and in some places dramatically. But I think our fundamentals are good, if you know what I mean. I would not expect that Love will be our first pass, however. Anyone want to start a pool on where we are ten years from now? Or five, if you're not that patient? Should be an interesting ten years. (Of course, there's always that darn proverb to watch out for. Interesting times, and all that. Or was it a curse? Hmm.)

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PostSep 20, 2017#3847

symphonicpoet wrote:
Sep 20, 2017
If growth continues at presents rates, and that's a big but plausible if, then things will start to move in 2018 or so, believe it or not. Of course, it's a given that present rates will change, and in some places dramatically. But I think our fundamentals are good, if you know what I mean. I would not expect that Love will be our first pass, however. Anyone want to start a pool on where we are ten years from now? Or five, if you're not that patient? Should be an interesting ten years. (Of course, there's always that darn proverb to watch out for. Interesting times, and all that. Or was it a curse? Hmm.)
Definitely a curse: "May you live in interesting times".

I have a sinking feeling that another global aviation downturn is coming within the next decade. Probably nothing as dramatic as 9/11, but more along the lines of The Recession. Hopefully I'm proven wrong.

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PostSep 20, 2017#3848

symphonicpoet wrote:
Sep 20, 2017
gregl wrote:
Sep 19, 2017
gary kreie wrote:
Sep 19, 2017


Looks like 36th to me. We're already moving up?
Lambert is in a hole of sorts, which will prevent us from moving up (or down) in the rankings any time soon -- we are just under 1 million passengers ahead of BNA and 1.6 million behind DAL.
If growth continues at presents rates, and that's a big but plausible if, then things will start to move in 2018 or so, believe it or not. Of course, it's a given that present rates will change, and in some places dramatically. But I think our fundamentals are good, if you know what I mean. I would not expect that Love will be our first pass, however. Anyone want to start a pool on where we are ten years from now? Or five, if you're not that patient? Should be an interesting ten years. (Of course, there's always that darn proverb to watch out for. Interesting times, and all that. Or was it a curse? Hmm.)
Love is pretty much flat this year and I think will be for awhile. They are pretty much tapped out. So I think they would be who we catch next. I guess Calgary isn't growing all that fast either.


Sidebar: Rumors swirling that Southwest might announce starting service to Hawaii today. Not from here obviously, but that would be still a nice development.

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PostSep 20, 2017#3849

jshank83 wrote:
Sep 20, 2017
symphonicpoet wrote:
Sep 20, 2017
gregl wrote:
Sep 19, 2017


Lambert is in a hole of sorts, which will prevent us from moving up (or down) in the rankings any time soon -- we are just under 1 million passengers ahead of BNA and 1.6 million behind DAL.
If growth continues at presents rates, and that's a big but plausible if, then things will start to move in 2018 or so, believe it or not. Of course, it's a given that present rates will change, and in some places dramatically. But I think our fundamentals are good, if you know what I mean. I would not expect that Love will be our first pass, however. Anyone want to start a pool on where we are ten years from now? Or five, if you're not that patient? Should be an interesting ten years. (Of course, there's always that darn proverb to watch out for. Interesting times, and all that. Or was it a curse? Hmm.)
Love is pretty much flat this year and I think will be for awhile. They are pretty much tapped out. So I think they would be who we catch next. I guess Calgary isn't growing all that fast either.


Sidebar: Rumors swirling that Southwest might announce starting service to Hawaii today. Not from here obviously, but that would be still a nice development.
I flew non-stop to Honolulu from Lambert in 1992 for my honeymoon. TWA 747 upper level business class. Those were the days.

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PostSep 20, 2017#3850

I'm guessing the growth in large part over the next decade is dictated by what will Southwest be doing in terms of their size? Mainly how much more can they grow with only having 737s? Any change in their operating model and planning will have a noticeable effect here. Network growth would likely be noticeable here due to limitations in other midcontinent places along with increasing local demand in those places would need a shift of connecting flow elsewhere that can handle it. One wild card as well that could have a noticeable effect here is if they start flying to Canada, since good chance they might route that through here.

Other things in next five years to increase traffic would be near certainty JetBlue arrives in that time and more international flights. Good chance at least half of the new destinations that start in next five years that haven't been announced yet are international, mainly due to less and less domestic adds left that could work (though Southwest keeping on building here up may make some more viable due to connections)

One thing to note is only about half the traffic increase the last couple years is connections, so theres a sizable local demand growth going on as well. My guess is its due to changing economic profile of the region in industry makeup that has more travel demand as well as younger generations locally are much more apt to travel by plane than older ones. (stereotypical locals aren't the type to travel much, especially by plane) Also business and social connections seem to be increasingly non regional that is too far to reach by a car ride.

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