That's a really fantastic post. I like it when other lefties who are better informed about Econ can lay stuff out for me.kipfilet wrote: ↑Jan 19, 2021The Left-NIMBY canon
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-left-nimby-canon
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Ezra Klein has a great piece on the NYT denouncing Left-NIMBYism. It's specifically about California, where the situation is worse, but applies to many other parts of the country (ignore the title, it's not really about SF schools)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opin ... hools.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/11/opin ... hools.html
Sounds like the pronouncement of the death of large dense urban centers was a bit premature:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-pandemic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-pandemic
Found this data fascinating. Yes, population and overall population density are decreasing... but the average city resident has become more dense.
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addxb2 wrote: ↑Mar 24, 2021the average city resident has become more dense.
Yes, that is very apparent. They also take up a lot more space than they used to.- 6,123
I may be more thick, but surely I'm less dense. I mean . . . all that hot air takes up space, but it doesn't really add any weight to my . . . arguments.
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Nextstl - Suburban renters increasingly interested in St. Louis City
https://nextstl.com/2021/04/suburban-re ... ouis-city/
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https://nextstl.com/2021/04/suburban-re ... ouis-city/
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I'd be careful with trying to extrapolate or infer too much from anything that happened during 2020.SeattleNative wrote: ↑Apr 10, 2021Nextstl - Suburban renters increasingly interested in St. Louis City
https://nextstl.com/2021/04/suburban-re ... ouis-city/
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I think as explanation to this is simple: younger people in the county are looking at moving into the City. As is the case with many of my friends in high school, they want to be in the City.
On the other hand, you have people (older people, young families looking for better school districts) continuing to leave the City. So while it's good to see renewed interest in the City by people in the suburbs, that I almost guarantee are people in their early 20s or so, an adjusted percentage of interest needs to be made. According to the story, 31% are looking at the City and 14% are looking outside. Adjusted, that's 17% looking at the City. Not a shabby number.
2030 should report the first City population increase in, at that point, 80 years. It won't be a huge increase, but it'll be big enough to get people talking. 2020 is our "bottom out" census. Of course, growth needs to be sustained throughout the 2020s. Money needs to be invested in infrastructure and our schools in addition to changing presently less-desirable neighborhoods into desirable again.
Crime also remains the number 1 issue that needs to be addressed no matter what. People looking at moving to St. Louis don't think of crime as a regional statistic. They see the City of St. Louis's statistics and make decisions based on that. While people have pointed out that the number is skewed because the City is small, it doesn't matter. We're not a singular, consolidated city-county with over a million people to disperse the crime data over. Even if we re-entered the County as a municipality, our statistic wouldn't change because St. Louis is still a singular incorporated City within a larger county.
On the other hand, you have people (older people, young families looking for better school districts) continuing to leave the City. So while it's good to see renewed interest in the City by people in the suburbs, that I almost guarantee are people in their early 20s or so, an adjusted percentage of interest needs to be made. According to the story, 31% are looking at the City and 14% are looking outside. Adjusted, that's 17% looking at the City. Not a shabby number.
2030 should report the first City population increase in, at that point, 80 years. It won't be a huge increase, but it'll be big enough to get people talking. 2020 is our "bottom out" census. Of course, growth needs to be sustained throughout the 2020s. Money needs to be invested in infrastructure and our schools in addition to changing presently less-desirable neighborhoods into desirable again.
Crime also remains the number 1 issue that needs to be addressed no matter what. People looking at moving to St. Louis don't think of crime as a regional statistic. They see the City of St. Louis's statistics and make decisions based on that. While people have pointed out that the number is skewed because the City is small, it doesn't matter. We're not a singular, consolidated city-county with over a million people to disperse the crime data over. Even if we re-entered the County as a municipality, our statistic wouldn't change because St. Louis is still a singular incorporated City within a larger county.
Good points, Chris.
Meshes with my experience: most of my circle of friends moved to the City in our 20s, and probably 2/3rds of them moved back to the burbs in our 30s when they had kids. Why did they move back? Crime, Schools, price per Sq Ft of housing v. the burbs. In that order. Those who stayed (so far) have done so because they can afford to live in the "safe" neighborhoods in a larger home and either don't have kids, or can either pay private school tuition or enroll the kids in a "good" charter/magnet school.
This is basically the circle of life for a lot of City residents who didn't grow up here--move into the city for "young person" reasons, leave for "middle-age person" reasons. Not sure how we realistically reverse this, but the first step is to stop the bleeding (literally). I'm supportive of the various criminal justice/policing reforms that are the fashion in progressive circles these days, but if the petty and not-so-petty crime continues to fester then "reform" won't matter because there won't be a tax base left to fund it.
Meshes with my experience: most of my circle of friends moved to the City in our 20s, and probably 2/3rds of them moved back to the burbs in our 30s when they had kids. Why did they move back? Crime, Schools, price per Sq Ft of housing v. the burbs. In that order. Those who stayed (so far) have done so because they can afford to live in the "safe" neighborhoods in a larger home and either don't have kids, or can either pay private school tuition or enroll the kids in a "good" charter/magnet school.
This is basically the circle of life for a lot of City residents who didn't grow up here--move into the city for "young person" reasons, leave for "middle-age person" reasons. Not sure how we realistically reverse this, but the first step is to stop the bleeding (literally). I'm supportive of the various criminal justice/policing reforms that are the fashion in progressive circles these days, but if the petty and not-so-petty crime continues to fester then "reform" won't matter because there won't be a tax base left to fund it.
My perception may be extremely biased due to demographic characteristics, and the fact that most people I socialize with share those characteristics with me. In my circle, schools are the dominant factor. Every single person I know who moved from City to County did it due to schools. Schools remain the most likely reason for why I may move to the County in the near future.chriss752 wrote: ↑Apr 12, 2021Crime also remains the number 1 issue that needs to be addressed no matter what. People looking at moving to St. Louis don't think of crime as a regional statistic. They see the City of St. Louis's statistics and make decisions based on that. While people have pointed out that the number is skewed because the City is small, it doesn't matter. We're not a singular, consolidated city-county with over a million people to disperse the crime data over. Even if we re-entered the County as a municipality, our statistic wouldn't change because St. Louis is still a singular incorporated City within a larger county.
As regards reversing population decline, north city holds the key.
At a 10,000-ft level, the central corridor is seeing strong growth, south city is more-or-less stable, but the gains there have been more than wiped out by the egress in north city.
And really historically there's been little reason to stick around if better options are available - the area as a whole has (beautiful but) degrading housing stock, high crime, a dearth of investment in utilities, and little to speak of in quality-of-life retail, i.e. grocery stores, pharmacies, etc.
To see real growth St. Louis has to stabilize the north side. That's admittedly not a small ask, and it's a problem largely of the city's own doing. But give folks a decent place to stay and options for food and necessities and people are less likely to move out of north city. Deal with concentrations of crime there and you benefit not just those neighborhoods but the entire city as the overall crime rate drops. Likewise, prioritize schools there and you not only give kids in the north side a better shot but you improve the overall perception of SLPS - and a better-performing SLPS also increases the attractiveness of other neighborhoods in central and south city.
There is hope, as has been documented here: NGA West, development creep from the central corridor north of Delmar, and more housing projects in various stages of development and implementation than I can ever recall.
Improving the north side not a panacea for all of the city's problems, but it would go a long way to lessening many of them.
-RBB
At a 10,000-ft level, the central corridor is seeing strong growth, south city is more-or-less stable, but the gains there have been more than wiped out by the egress in north city.
And really historically there's been little reason to stick around if better options are available - the area as a whole has (beautiful but) degrading housing stock, high crime, a dearth of investment in utilities, and little to speak of in quality-of-life retail, i.e. grocery stores, pharmacies, etc.
To see real growth St. Louis has to stabilize the north side. That's admittedly not a small ask, and it's a problem largely of the city's own doing. But give folks a decent place to stay and options for food and necessities and people are less likely to move out of north city. Deal with concentrations of crime there and you benefit not just those neighborhoods but the entire city as the overall crime rate drops. Likewise, prioritize schools there and you not only give kids in the north side a better shot but you improve the overall perception of SLPS - and a better-performing SLPS also increases the attractiveness of other neighborhoods in central and south city.
There is hope, as has been documented here: NGA West, development creep from the central corridor north of Delmar, and more housing projects in various stages of development and implementation than I can ever recall.
Improving the north side not a panacea for all of the city's problems, but it would go a long way to lessening many of them.
-RBB
^That'd be pretty consistent with the results of the last census, illustrated here from a decade old NextSTL article:rbb wrote: ↑Apr 12, 2021As regards reversing population decline, north city holds the key....
Although, similar to what you describe, it wouldn't be surprising to see the 2010 trends amplified with more growth in the central corridor, more population loss in north city, and more flatness/stabilization in south city.
NY Times: Can Removing Highways Fix America’s Cities?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... moval.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... moval.html
Great article. It made me think that, while St. Louis has certainly taken some hits from highway construction (separating the riverfront and the enormous 44/55 hole between Lafayette Sq., Soulard, McKinley Heights come to mind), a lot of what seems to be proposed for removal in other cities are very close in inner-belts (similar to what the DTW/Truman Parkway concept would have been) and underutilized parkways. Between the inner-inner-belt not being built, having Metrolink instead of 170 south of 64/40, and really only having one parkway that is very useful and doesn't detract from or separate parts of the city (except the Catlin Tract mansions), St. Louis has dodged a few bullets on this front.kipfilet wrote: ↑May 27, 2021NY Times: Can Removing Highways Fix America’s Cities?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... moval.html
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^Maybe? Some of our highways have done enormous damage. Sections of 44, 55, and 70 made a real mess of the neighborhoods through which they were caved. That monster interchange on the east side certainly did East St. Louis no favors. Several of our neighborhoods survived in spite of the damage done them. But I could absolutely see a case for road diets and exit removals. 44 inside city limits is largely redundant with 40. I could very much see removing 44 east of Jamieson. (Leave it from that point out to serve the Lindenwood Yard, but make the rest of it into a modest surface street?) I'm trying to think how to make the Poplar Street less intrusive on East St. Louis that isn't just shifting all the interstate traffic to the Stan Span and potentially moving the problem to the north side instead. I'd love to see the Truman Parkway shrunk down. I'd love to see Gravois and the Gravois/Tucker/44/55/Truman Parkway interchange cut in half at least. I'm sure there could be equally useful changes on the north side.
Strong Towns - Parking Requirements: Cheaper Driving for Costlier Development
https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/202 ... evelopment
https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/202 ... evelopment
Here’s hoping the 17th ward alder is drafting legislation to eliminate parking minimums!quincunx wrote:Strong Towns - Parking Requirements: Cheaper Driving for Costlier Development
https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/202 ... evelopment
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Would LOVE to see STL do this. Put this in a high profile location and put another in Kanas City. Or one of our sister cities, like St. Louis in Senegal.
Hell maybe even set these up all over the city with portals into many different cities, it would be great PR for STL.
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Hell maybe even set these up all over the city with portals into many different cities, it would be great PR for STL.
