Here is some good info on the current state of the region's jobs/office space

http://www.us.jll.com/united-states/en- ... 61c52d05f9

This seems to indicate an upcoming crunch in available space in most if not all areas of the metro. Interesting is this data along with other data indicates that there seems to have been a 2nd recession locally around 2011-2012 and that economic comparisons here are often a function of that. Has there been any study or comments explaining why the metro area had a 2nd recession in that time where it didn't happen elsewhere?

^ The reason they are saying another recession nationally is that its now been a long time since the last national one compared to the last few cycles. It is of note that the first recession leg was a bit late in happening here, likely due to not having the real estate bubble aspect hit as strong. It seemed the auto industry troubles were what triggered the recession locally. Not sure what the cause of the 2012 local one was and where it affected in terms of sectors.

But longer term I think there is reason to believe a stronger growth era may hit breaking the long generational malaise. Mainly the growth in financial services and tech which is in part due to low cost of living which is causing companies and startups to look here like how growth in the sunbelt has occurred. (A lot of those places are having their cost of living advantage erode, especially in Atlantic coast states and Austin) Another is that environmental pressures based on water availability long-term and risk of sea level rise being nonexistent here could make the area more attractive moreso than any non-Great Lakes city. The biggest hindrances is fractured government and social tensions (which are interconnected)

Look at what has happened to STL over the past decade or so. We've lost a ton of jobs. It is amazing we are seeing a recovery and shift from blue-collar to white collar. As you know, we lost:
-Ford plant & parts supplier jobs
-Chrysler plant & parts supplier jobs
-Tons of AB jobs & related contractor jobs
-Tons of TWA jobs
-Tons of May Co. jobs

Now we are getting a boost by the construction boom, the increase in jobs in plants like GM Wentzville and others, big name employers like Boeing, WW Technology and RGA, hiring more and more. I think we have some momentum. Not to mention, I think it has been recognized that we do a bad job attracting immigrants. Slay and others have publically acknowledged that. I think we still have a lot to overcome, but I'd love to hear about how great a comeback we've made, 10 years from now, in light of Ferguson.

charter execs left too

Anyone have any insight on Sigma-Alrich, since the buy-out? Has the buy-out led to layoffs, more workers or less? Just Curious?

Riverfront Times reports today, via a study by WalletHub, that STL lost more population from 2008-2014 than any other big city, a loss of 1.74%. We're 64 out of 64. Couple the fact that we now are the murder capital, one thing is certain, for those of us weho live in the region, we've lost.

The Atlanta Constitution was correct several months: we are a failed region.

^ Do yourself a favor and stop reading that dreary RFT.

Sirshankalot, are those numbers based on the region or the City of STL only? Let's also keep in mind, those blue collar jobs lost, lead to people moving to other cities. It is not like an autoworker can find other work, unless he does handyman side jobs or picks up an entirely new trade. Not to mention, construction was stagnant for years here. Lot of lost manufacturing, to right-to-work states and Mexico/China etc. . . Besides city-county merger, we need to start to position ourselves as a state, to compete with the sunbelt states. Jobs=population growth. Just look at Oklahoma & North Dakota. Why anyone would flock there besides jobs, is beyond me. Proves my point. We are seeing a significant shift here, from blue collar to white collar. While having both is great, as our region is positioned today, we just cannot compete with sunbelt states for the manufacturing jobs. (At least without selling the farm with tax breaks and incentives)

^ Well with the right-to-work issue that's more of an inevitability that it will happen soon as the next republican governor exists. I wonder if some of the issues that are occurring now is that it wasn't bad enough in the previous decades to warrant sizable changes like say Pittsburgh in the 1970s.

One other trend I could see occur in the near future is with the change in labor force makeup and age demographics of the region, is an upcoming labor crunch with a lack of workers in a large number of fields. A larger percentage of the workforce than average locally is near retirement combined with the growth in certain sectors will create a shortage of workers in various fields. This might wind up creating an influx of people moving to the region to fill the roles which could change the political culture from the parochial nature that too often exists.

Isn't there some neighborhoods the population loss is a function of rehabs of houses that are combining units? That and the smaller number of people moving in are wealther than those moving out?

Also another economic sector that looks like could be a growth one here is the transportation and logistics sector. This makes sense due to location and infrastructure.

imperialmog wrote:Isn't there some neighborhoods the population loss is a function of rehabs of houses that are combining units? That and the smaller number of people moving in are wealther than those moving out?

Also another economic sector that looks like could be a growth one here is the transportation and logistics sector. This makes sense due to location and infrastructure.

I have been thinking about that recently. I love in Shaw. 4 houses on my block have either been redone within th last 2/3 months or are being renovated right now. The ones that are done only have one family living in them, but they were clearly made as duplexes (Two doors at the entrance), and renovated into single family homes. Yeah maybe population is down on my block but the wealth and the value of the block has clearly gone up.

^ Yep. Quality of people is more important than quantity. HH income and # of people with bachelors degree of higher are much more important measures than population.

^I remember seeing that in those accounts the city and region as a whole is actually doing much better than many places if you go by that standard. It also could be a leading indicator of growth overall. Population isn't the end all be all in terms of health of a region.

imperialmog wrote:This seems to indicate an upcoming crunch in available space in most if not all areas of the metro. Interesting is this data along with other data indicates that there seems to have been a 2nd recession locally around 2011-2012 and that economic comparisons here are often a function of that. Has there been any study or comments explaining why the metro area had a 2nd recession in that time where it didn't happen elsewhere?

probably had more to do with leases signed in 2007 and early 2008 when things still looked rosie that were not renewed when they came due in 2010 and 2011. There was a lot of office space that was still under lease in 2012 and 2011 where the tenants had vacated in 2009 and 2010.

^ I think the region's mini recession reflects how big of an automobile presence, therefore industrial presence, the region had up to 2008/2009. Unfortunately, the region took a big hit from the auto industry correction and didn't see any rebound other than Chevrolet when sales came back. Especially on the jobs front as the auto industry had a lot more job loss then the surge in logistics industry can recover with.

I think it would have been a very different story in 2011-2012 for the region if it still had retained GM, Ford and Chrysler auto plants because all of them, for the most part, have reinvested in their remaining facilities including GM in Wentzville and Ford across the state in KC area.

Unfortunately, the region, especially Metro East is holding its breadth again with US Steel

http://www.stltoday.com/business/local/ ... f9ef0.html

Sadly, the region being divided between two states and therefore even a bigger divide political you got a situation where Illinois argues that it needs NGA to go across the river and then turns around and spins it as economic growth for the region. Just as bad as the big box TIF

Economic forecast: St. Louis needs ‘breakthrough’
“It’s the perfect time for breakthrough improvements in our economy,” he said. “As the world has grown fast, St. Louis has remained steady. We need to recognize the gap we have in economic opportunity and jump into them so we’re not just reactive.”

read more here
http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/blog ... rough.html

Not very optimistic when Reagan is living on a hope and a prayer.

Isn't there an argument for not going for the "big thing" and build bottom up? I do agree a lot of the issues are directly tied into the social environment and solving that will help.

I do get the sense that the feeling of stagnation or decline will inevitably end some point over the next generation. Though it might be more due to problems elsewhere or that there is more opportunity gain ability here over other places. Main reasons are that issues creeping up in places that have had significant growth in recent decades like affordability. Another is any impacts of climate change, since here will fare much better than most places since the biggest impacts won't apply here in sea level rise or water availibilty. The former for obvious and the latter is there is enough upstream watershed and one of the largest sustainable aquifers In the country that the only issues that could happen is too much water. (that's its own issue but a lot easier than not enough)

Well said, Roger. The corporate community/ Civic Progress seems to think the status quo is just fine. They like their big suburban campuses with an easy commute to Ladue/ Clayton. They need to be pushing for downtown and the city overall. The Cortex is happening and is on fire, but they also need to be advocates for downtown and particularly what Gabe Lozano called for, investment in 1,000 companies downtown and 10,000 new software jobs by 2025. THAT should be Civic Progress' new goal as well as Joe Reagan's at the Chamber. Is it me or has he not been as visible as Dick Fleming used to be?

Gabe Lozano's presentation:

http://www.slideshare.net/gabelozano/fr ... -100-years