So, I was VERY stunned after reading this.http://blogs.riverfronttimes.com/dailyr ... _moves.php I mean, before I moved from St Louis, almost everyone around us had moved to St Louis in the past 3 years. At my school, we had a record of 190 new students the year I moved. I don't see St Louis as a 'dying' area, but growing. The only dying areas in the US that come to mind are Detroit and Cleveland, which have plummeting metro area populations. Is St Louis a 'booming' area? No. Is it growing? Yes. Then again, I haven't lived in St Louis for the past 2 years. And, to clarify why I moved: My dad quit his job in September 2008...Then the recession hit and he could not find work, (Obviously) which is why I am now in the hobble and excuse for a city of Sioux Falls, South Crapota.

i wouldn't worry too much over this vacuous piece; it's par for the course for the RFT these days. it's based on one moving company's business during one quarter of one year. i mean, Chicago and NYC fared worse, so those places must be collapsing as well. St. Louis Metro is a slow growth region and you should expect short-term fluctuations. The last census showed that we're still growing, albeit at a snail's pace.

urban_dilettante wrote:i wouldn't worry too much over this vacuous piece; it's par for the course for the RFT these days. it's based on one moving company's business during one quarter of one year. i mean, Chicago and NYC fared worse, so those places must be collapsing as well. St. Louis Metro is a slow growth region and you should expect short-term fluctuations. The last census showed that we're still growing, albeit at a snail's pace.

True, then again it doesn't show the massive amount of job additions in the area, which will bring thousands to the area.

roger wyoming II wrote:Chalupas,
the truth is our region is in crisis. If we don't see major changes, there is a very real possibility that with the 2020 Census the population in the City will be below 300,000 and in the County below 1 million. The only growth (with exception of pockets in the city) is in southwestern County and outlying counties, particularly Saint Chas. Co. We're doing some things better, but I'm worried.

btw, should we count on you to be back in Saint Louis for the 2020 Census?

This is probably the most honest comment I've heard about St. Louis growth and development in a long time.

The fact is St. Louis as a city, county, and region is barely staying a float and unless we do something drastic, like yesterday, I feel it is only a matter of time before we see regional population loss.

Chalupas54 wrote:True, then again it doesn't show the massive amount of job additions in the area, which will bring thousands to the area.

massive amount of job additions?

urban_dilettante wrote:i wouldn't worry too much over this vacuous piece; it's par for the course for the RFT these days. it's based on one moving company's business during one quarter of one year. i mean, Chicago and NYC fared worse, so those places must be collapsing as well. St. Louis Metro is a slow growth region and you should expect short-term fluctuations. The last census showed that we're still growing, albeit at a snail's pace.

I agree with Roger Wyoming about the possibility of our region losing population in the next census as the city and county are likely to decline and growth is slower in the outlying counties. But I wouldn't press the panic button based on this ridiculous piece from the RFT, which seems to like 'woe is St. Louis' stories a bit too much.

^While I don't distrust the measurements entirely, Florida, in my opinion, always rags on St. Louis for some reason. I think he'd find a way to spin STL's tech growth into something negative.

Also, disproportionate low-wage growth has been a problem nationwide.

Unfortunately in this still slow recovering economy, states fighting for jobs is more competitive. Why is Texas - Rick Perry in particular - stealing employers and jobs from almost every state in the Union? Why have numerous corporations jumped the state line in Kansas City? North Carolina beat out St. Louis for 2,000 Met Life jobs because North Carolina dangled a bigger carrot.

Solution.............Missouri needs to dangle bigger carrots. Short term Missouri loses, long-term it wins.

^I think it is interesting how you are choosing to see the numbers.

Houston is beating New York.
Atlanta is beating Washington, DC., Philadelphia.
Austin is beating Chicago.
Minneapolis is beating Chicago.
Charlotte is over Chicago and San Francisco.

And so forth and so on. St. Louis isn't the only metro that is being bested by smaller metros in 2013.

Although St. Louis could do better, St. Louis is in alignment with its rust-belt peers.

Keep in mind that St. Louis finished 2012 ahead of many of the metros that are now ahead of it. Permits are not actual builds. Some developers get permits in bulk especially for new single-family developments.

The monthly numbers are also adjustable throughout the year. July can be readjusted in October. 2013 is not over. I think you can expect for 177 new permits for City Walk to be added. Then if Opus submits its permits during 2013, of course that increases the numbers. Further, these numbers are for "new" construction - not reuses.

arch city wrote:^I think it is interesting how you are choosing to see the numbers.

Although St. Louis could do better, St. Louis is in alignment with its rust-belt peers.

Exactly! We're essentially at the back of the pack with the rust-belt stragglers. I'm just looking for signs that we may finally be turning the tide on population loss for the City/County and moribund gains for the region and I don't see anything too good from this report.

Looking at the St. Louis City reported numbers, hopefully we do get several more hundred by the end of the year.... we need just under 500 to match last year's final number. So far this year, 102 of the total 128 preliminarliy reported are for a single multi-family project pulled in March.... I suspect this is for the Aventura. Good news is that 2012 was a bright spot with 605 units, which was well ahead of the bleak 2009-2011 period and actually the highest annual number since 2005, Looking forward, you mentioned City Walk and Opus.... I think we can also add around 120 for the OPO Tower, although 2014 may be more realistic for the latter two. What else is looming out there in the city (again assuming re-uses aren't counted)?

From the looks of it St. Louis is the #2 rustbelt city after Chicago, which sounds about right (unless Minne counts as rustbelt, which puts us at #3, and also makes sense). I didn't realize how behind the curve Cleveland is. That does not bode well. They're behind Little Rock!!??

arch city wrote:While I don't distrust the measurements entirely, Florida, in my opinion, always rags on St. Louis for some reason. I think he'd find a way to spin STL's tech growth into something negative. .

Arch, once again Florida isn't ragging on Saint Louis! It was the Census Bureau's release of the American Community Survey that reported Missouri was just one of two states that reported median income loss from '11 to '12.

https://www.stlbeacon.org/#!/content/32 ... vey_091913

That Beacon link btw highlights some interesting factoids for the region including the fact that Olivette has the highest percentage of people 5 or over speaking a foreign language at home at 22.7%. Pacific was among the lowest at 1.3%, while the region's average was 6.3%

roger wyoming II wrote:Exactly! We're essentially at the back of the pack with the rust-belt stragglers. I'm just looking for signs that we may finally be turning the tide on population loss for the City/County and moribund gains for the region and I don't see anything too good from this report.

Patience is a virtue. The St. Louis region took a big hit. A BIG HIT before and during the recession.

St. Louis is transitioning. St. Louis is less industrialized. And with that, have come job losses. I keep saying this.

Nowhere is more evident than CORTEX. Old rust-belt factories either being converted or demolished to make way for high-science and tech labs. Look at Monsanto, Mallinkcrodt Pharma, RGA, Express Scripts, Edwards Jones, Stifel, Wells, Centene - plus all of the space absorption happening downtown by tech firms.

New economy, knowledge-based expansions in health-care, financial services, biotech.

Although I believe there's room for more expansion in St. Louis during this sluggish-but-improving economy, the permits and builds will come as the economy gets healthier.

Usually in times like these, St. Louis would be worse off. At least some expansion is happening, even though I think there's room for more.

^Thanks. That's a really helpful visualization. I agree with their exclusion of Columbus from being a "principal rust belt city". It's just too new, university driven, and wasn't a big manufacturing center at the turn of the last century. Then again, I'd think Indy could probably be included. Also, it's odd that they have Pittsburgh and Lafayette as "recovered rust belt" and not Chicago. Still, cool graphic.