St. Louis Cardinals

Trololzilla · PostSep 27, 2020#7012020-09-27T08:30+00:00

^^ There's no way Carp or Fowler are gone. The Cardinals don't really like losing face so they're not going to unload the contracts and they're basically impossible to trade.

I'm also not sure I understand why Cardinals fans perpetually and criminally underrate a lot of our players: Dejong is good for 3-5 WAR every year, with an average to above-average bat (with power) and elite fielding, yet he's being treated like it'd merely be a favor to keep him around. He absolutely should be the everyday SS - like seriously, he's roughly comparable to Lindor stats-wise. His ideal spot in the lineup is 5th or 6th, but definitely not 8th (even disregarding the fact that OBP alone shouldn't be used for making lineup decisions anyway).

Arenado's not happening. You wouldn't want it to happen at this point anyway. If the Cardinals traded for him (at a pretty hefty price), they'd be on the hook for essentially what amounts to a 1-year, $35 million contract since Arenado has an opt-out after 2021 and it's still a decent bet that he exercises it. I'd honestly be surprised if a single team in MLB would be willing to take on that contract at a time like this, given the shaky financial situation. It'd be a better plan to buy a cheap glove-only SS and then move Dejong over to 3B until Gorman arrives, since he's still pretty good there defensively and it relegates Carpenter and Edman to DH/bench roles, which they're better suited at.

1. Wong (2B) - Wong's not that great at leadoff, but I don't know a better candidate unless Carpenter finds out he can bat but only at leadoff again.
2. Edman (3B)
3. Goldschmidt (1B) - Ideally you'd want your best hitter in the 2nd lineup spot, but I doubt the Cardinals would play him there much.
4. Carlson (RF) - I'd really like another bat for the lineup, but I don't see a whole lot of opportunities to upgrade this offseason, and if Carlson is as good as we expect him to be, I'm fine with him here.
5. Dejong (SS)
6. O'Neill (LF)
7. Yadi (C) - Yadi should bat no higher than this, though I full expect them to 'respect his Veteraniness' and bat him 5th or 6th a lot.
8. Carpenter / Fowler (INF/DH | OF/DH)
9. Bader (CF)

Bench:
Miller (if re-signed)
Thomas
Knizner
Shrock?
Ravelo?
Williams?

Rotation:
1. Flaherty
2. Kim
3. Waino
4. Gomber
5. Ponce de Leon / Helsley / Martinez?

Rotation is starting to look a bit thin with Mikolas's forearm injury "rehab" which we all know is going to last all of about 1.5 starts next spring training before he's out with Tommy John. With Carlos out now too with a very annoying injury for pitchers (and he may not be very good in the rotation anymore anyway), it might be time to look for some outside pitching help this offseason.

Bullpen will likely be some combination of:

Gallegos
Hicks
Webb
Miller
Cabrera
Reyes
Ponce de Leon / Helsley / Martinez
Gant
Whitley
Oviedo

DTGstl314 · PostSep 28, 2020#7022020-09-28T04:25+00:00

Trololzilla wrote: ↑
Sep 26, 2020
I mean, the team has been absolutely devastated by injuries this season, on top of being the team most ravished by Covid, and has had to play a literally unprecedented schedule to catch up with the rest of the league, yet they're still above .500 and will likely make the playoffs.

Let's keep that in perspective: more than half of all MLB teams made the playoffs this year, including two teams with losing records - the Brewers and the Astros. The Brewers didn't have a winning record at any point in the entire season - they reached .500 on 7 different occasions, and immediately lost their next game every single time. And yet... they could potentially win the World Series a few weeks from now.

Getting to October doesn't really mean a whole lot in this weird season.

Trololzilla · PostSep 28, 2020#7032020-09-28T06:36+00:00

^ Oh I'm aware, and don't care at all who wins this year since it's all an asterisk to me, but it's still damned impressive that despite everything, the Cardinals managed to eke out a winning record and the 5th seed. Had the team not dicked away a few wins against bad teams (like the KC games or some of the Pirates games), there's a very good chance the Cardinals would have won the division, since the Cubs haven't look too good and are still in the middle of their downward spiral back into mediocrity and pretty much lucked into a division title in this weird year.

I think the extrapolated wins for the Cardinals if this year was normal would be like 87 or 88, which is well within a standard deviation of the 90 wins the front office shoots for each year. Not bad, all things considered.

Really need to get some arms to replace Hudson and Mikolas, though.

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostSep 28, 2020#7042020-09-28T12:52+00:00

Trololzilla wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
the Cardinals managed to eke out a winning record and the 5th seed.

I don't understand why the Cardinals got the 5 seed and Reds got the 7 seed when they were both 2 games over .500, but the Reds played 2 more games.

dbInSouthCity · PostSep 28, 2020#7052020-09-28T13:21+00:00

I’m too lazy to look up the tie break rules but id guess it’s because the Cards were 22-18 vs the central and the reds went 21-19 or the 6-4 H2H the cards had over the Reds. Those 2 are 1-2 tie breakers, just not sure which order

stladvocate · PostSep 28, 2020#7062020-09-28T13:26+00:00

Bart Harley Jarvis wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
Trololzilla wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
the Cardinals managed to eke out a winning record and the 5th seed.
I don't understand why the Cardinals got the 5 seed and Reds got the 7 seed when they were both 2 games over .500, but the Reds played 2 more games.

Same win percentage and Cardinals won the season series 6-4.

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostSep 28, 2020#7072020-09-28T14:13+00:00

I just think it's odd that the team that played more (and won more) is penalized.

jshank83 · PostSep 28, 2020#7082020-09-28T14:23+00:00

Bart Harley Jarvis wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
Trololzilla wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
the Cardinals managed to eke out a winning record and the 5th seed.
I don't understand why the Cardinals got the 5 seed and Reds got the 7 seed when they were both 2 games over .500, but the Reds played 2 more games.

30-28 (.51724) is a better winning percentage than 31-29 (.51667)

Bart Harley Jarvis · PostSep 28, 2020#7092020-09-28T14:27+00:00

jshank83 wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
Bart Harley Jarvis wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
Trololzilla wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
the Cardinals managed to eke out a winning record and the 5th seed.
I don't understand why the Cardinals got the 5 seed and Reds got the 7 seed when they were both 2 games over .500, but the Reds played 2 more games.
30-28 (.51724) is a better winning percentage than 31-29 (.51667)

Right, and 29-27 is better than 30-28, but to what end?

Laife Fulk · PostSep 28, 2020#7102020-09-28T14:48+00:00

Well, the Reds percentage is still better. If the Cards really cared about it they would have tried to get the League to make up both games against Detroit. Honestly, the 5 seed is to their advantage because 1) they don't have to play 2 more games on short rest and use up bullpen arms and 2) I'd much rather face the Padres than Dodgers right out of the gate.

jshank83 · PostSep 28, 2020#7112020-09-28T15:29+00:00

Laife Fulk wrote: ↑
Sep 28, 2020
Well, the Reds percentage is still better. If the Cards really cared about it they would have tried to get the League to make up both games against Detroit. Honestly, the 5 seed is to their advantage because 1) they don't have to play 2 more games on short rest and use up bullpen arms and 2) I'd much rather face the Padres than Dodgers right out of the gate.

The Cards percentage is better than the Reds. Cards is .5172 and Reds was .5166

Reds are in the better spot being a lower seed so any of their fans complaining need to quit. Braves then Cubs or Marlins. Cards get Padres (who I think are better than the Braves) and then likely Dodgers. That is a tough first 2 series.

Laife Fulk · PostSep 28, 2020#7122020-09-28T16:00+00:00

I flipped the teams there (I need some morning caffeine), but my point still stands and aligns with yours. The Reds are in a MUCH better position facing the Braves than the the Padres.

dredger · PostSep 29, 2020#7132020-09-29T04:54+00:00

I just enjoyed the morning of going into the office and brag up the Cardinals to my boss, a diehard anything Philadelphia fan, and our Chief Estimator, a diehard anything San Fran fan & Giants season ticket holder, that the Cards did their part by keeping Brewers under 500 for the season and yet the Phillies and Giants stuck out this weekend.

Trololzilla · PostJan 30, 2021#7142021-01-30T10:24+00:00

Welp, with the likely acquisition of Nolan Arenado (for practically nothing to boot) to go along with Waino and likely Yadi, the Cardinals are now the clear-cut favorites in the NLC (though there's a very good chance they would have won the division regardless given how weak it is). The team should go full steam ahead and resign Wong now too to have the absolute best defensive infield in MLB - and considering how good our outfield is defensively, they could easily contend for the best overall defensive team in baseball too, even without Wong.

RockChalkSTL · PostJan 30, 2021#7152021-01-30T13:16+00:00

I hope they bring Wong back, though.

It definitely seems the Cardinals are definitely not waiting around for 2022 to reset, like it had appeared they were doing.

No matter what happens, I like this trade even if it only yields a single year of Arenado, who can opt out of his contract following 2021. As part of the trade, he can also opt out following 2022.

I'm hoping, though, that the Cardinals will take the $50 million the Rockies sent them to offer Arenado a new contract without opt-outs. He can keep his no-trade clause. He currently has six years and $199 million left on his contract, though I've read the Cardinals may have added a seventh season at $15 million as part of the deal.

If so, and the Cardinals are serious about winning, sweetening the pot enough to entice him to stay in the Lou almost certainly means extending or re-signing a player to the first $200+ million deal in franchise history.

It kind of stinks that mid-contract opt-outs have become so popular in MLB.

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SeattleNative · PostJan 30, 2021#7162021-01-30T14:34+00:00

KansasCitian wrote:I hope they bring Wong back, though.

It definitely seems the Cardinals are definitely not waiting around for 2022 to reset, like it had appeared they were doing.

No matter what happens, I like this trade even if it only yields a single year of Arenado, who can opt out of his contract following 2021. As part of the trade, he can also opt out following 2022.

I'm hoping, though, that the Cardinals will take the $50 million the Rockies sent them to offer Arenado a new contract without opt-outs. He can keep his no-trade clause. He currently has six years and $199 million left on his contract, though I've read the Cardinals may have added a seventh season at $15 million as part of the deal.

If so, and the Cardinals are serious about winning, sweetening the pot enough to entice him to stay in the Lou almost certainly means extending or re-signing a player to the first $200+ million deal in franchise history.

It kind of stinks that mid-contract opt-outs have become so popular in MLB.

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Eh, it’s unlikely that Arenado will opt out from a team he likes playing for while making $35M a year. He absolutely would have opted out in Colorado, but I think the Cardinals are confident he won’t do it here. There’s some speculation they kept this part in the contract to make the players union happy (to give other players bargaining power for opt out clauses)

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RockChalkSTL · PostJan 30, 2021#7172021-01-30T14:58+00:00

I think the Cardinals are pretty confident they can pull off the trade-and-sign, like they have with so many players in the past - Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday, Paul Goldschmidt, etc.

But every once in a while, you have a Jason Heyward that resists the charm and opts for more money and brighter lights.

Arenado may very well end up liking St. Louis, but at the end of the day it goes back to what I said in my last post: The Cardinals will have to produce the first $200+ million contract in franchise history to retain him. And it may be more like $250+ million. He's only two years into a $260 million contract.

PostJan 30, 2021#7182021-01-30T17:09+00:00

Following the 2021 season, Dexter Fowler ($16.5 million) and Andrew Miller ($12 million) come off the books. The Cardinals will also pay the $2 million to opt out of Matt Carpenter's $18.5 million owed in 2022. And then it's a bit more likely that Adam Wainwright ($8 million) and Yadier Molina (currently unknown) step away from the game.

Assuming Molina gets ~$10 million for 2021, that would be ~$63 million coming off of the books following this season if Wainwright and Molina walk.

With $50 million coming in the Arenado deal from the Rockies, I would like to think that the Cardinals have the financial positioning to be able to sign him to an extension, no matter how much higher that price tag is than any other contract in franchise history. Goldschmidt's $130 million is currently the club record.

If the rumors are true that the Cardinals are giving Arenado a seventh season for $15 million, bringing his potential future earnings to $214 million, it may require the Cardinals adding more money in year 7 and adding a year 8 to finalize a deal.

I assume the Cardinals will do with Arenado what they did with Goldschmidt, and that's allowing him to get comfortable and experience the fans in St. Louis before engaging him in negotiations. So let's say the Cardinals wait until the 2022 offseason to speak with Arenado and his agent. Or, perhaps more likely, that Arenado and his agent wait.

Arenado is owed $35 million each year from 2021-2024, then $32 million in 2025, and $27 million for when he's 35 in 2026. Again, if the rumors are true, he then has $15 million for when he's 36 in 2027.

I'm not sure what it is going to take to get him to ink a deal that doesn't feature opt-outs. Perhaps the Cardinals will need to raise his salary in 2025 and 2026 to $35 million and then hope he would accept $50 million over 2027 and 2028. That would mean a 7-year, $225 million offer - and a total of 8-years, $260 million over his lifetime with the Cardinals. A complete replica of the contract he signed in Denver two years before, meaning $321 million over a 10 year period since signing that first mega-contract.

But he may very well want seven years or eight years at $35 million each, requiring a $245-280 million offer that becomes a $280-315 million investment in total for the Cardinals if you include the 2021 season.

It is going to be very interesting to see how much Arenado gets from the Cardinals, or if he pursues this kind of money from other franchises. At just 31 in 2022, I believe he could easily command a $300 million contract offer in free agency if he has the kind of bounce-back season that the Cardinals and fans are expecting from him.

I can't wait to see if the Cardinals are going to actually offer a contract like that or not.

PlatinumBlues · PostJan 30, 2021#7192021-01-30T18:07+00:00

I’m going to go out on a limb and say he signs long term and one of the factors is he and Holliday are like brothers so I’m sure part of his decision making will be from the recommendation of Holliday urging him that his best chance at winning a championship or 2 are with the cardinals along with arguably the best fans in baseball watching him play in a full ballpark every season.

I’ll go on to say that he instantly becomes the face of the cardinals organization also what great way to promote the next phase if not the entire phases of ballpark village with a generational great player likely hall of famer if he continues to play at the level he’s playing now.

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jshank83 · PostJan 31, 2021#7202021-01-31T02:06+00:00

Why would he sign a new contract? He already has one with 7 years left on it for a ton of money. Are the Cardinals going to pay him more than 35 a year? There is no reason to add years onto it from a Cardinals perspective. There is no reason for him to take less money from a player perspective. I would just hope he doesn’t opt out. It also is hard for me to see him opting out at that price the way last season and this season will go money wise for teams. They aren’t exactly handing out huge deals.

wabash · PostJan 31, 2021#7212021-01-31T02:46+00:00

jshank83 wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
Why would he sign a new contract?

For more money for more years. The Cards would offer him just that so that they keep him for more than one year.

Laife Fulk · PostJan 31, 2021#7222021-01-31T06:55+00:00

wabash wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
jshank83 wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
Why would he sign a new contract?
For more money for more years. The Cards would offer him just that so that they keep him for more than one year.

With the CBA expiring after this next offseason, I'd say there's a 0.01% chance he'll opt out. Unless he has some historic 10+ WAR season, which if that's the case then the Cardinals traded nothing for a historic single season and it's still a huge win. I don't expect him to opt out. But in the off chance he does, it mean's he probably was a top three MVP candidate.

DTGstl314 · PostJan 31, 2021#7232021-01-31T09:25+00:00

jshank83 wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
Why would he sign a new contract? He already has one with 7 years left on it for a ton of money. Are the Cardinals going to pay him more than 35 a year? There is no reason to add years onto it from a Cardinals perspective. There is no reason for him to take less money from a player perspective. I would just hope he doesn’t opt out. It also is hard for me to see him opting out at that price the way last season and this season will go money wise for teams. They aren’t exactly handing out huge deals.

If he has an MVP caliber season in 2021, he'll be able to enter the free agency marketplace as a 30 year old who can demand a 10 year contract, probably worth north of $325 million.

PostJan 31, 2021#7242021-01-31T09:27+00:00

Laife Fulk wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
wabash wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
jshank83 wrote: ↑
Jan 31, 2021
Why would he sign a new contract?
For more money for more years. The Cards would offer him just that so that they keep him for more than one year.
With the CBA expiring after this next offseason, I'd say there's a 0.01% chance he'll opt out. Unless he has some historic 10+ WAR season, which if that's the case then the Cardinals traded nothing for a historic single season and it's still a huge win. I don't expect him to opt out. But in the off chance he does, it mean's he probably was a top three MVP candidate.

Yeah, it sort of a weird conundrum for the Cards - we want him to have a good season, but not TOO good. If he's a serious MVP contender, he's going to be seeking a $300+ million payday next winter.

PostJan 31, 2021#7252021-01-31T09:31+00:00

PlatinumBlues wrote: ↑
Jan 30, 2021
I’m going to go out on a limb and say he signs long term and one of the factors is he and Holliday are like brothers so I’m sure part of his decision making will be from the recommendation of Holliday urging him that his best chance at winning a championship or 2 are with the cardinals along with arguably the best fans in baseball watching him play in a full ballpark every season.

I’ll go on to say that he instantly becomes the face of the cardinals organization also what great way to promote the next phase if not the entire phases of ballpark village with a generational great player likely hall of famer if he continues to play at the level he’s playing now.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I assume you mean Yadi Molina? That's the only current Cardinal player who Arenado has any relationship with as far as I know. Matt Holliday was traded from the Rox to the Cardinals in 2009, and Arenado's rookie season in Colorado was 2013, so... the two never crossed paths as teammates.

ETA: My mistake. Apparently Arenado and Holliday are buddies. Not sure if they're "like brothers", but it appears they do text each other somewhat regularly. But I also know Arenado is friends with Yadi.

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