In the post under the no kidding section a while back it says if the U.S has all of the world proven oil reserve it will only last us 12 years so peak oil eventually hit us unless the U.S takes step now by increasing transit funding and alternative fuels. st. Louis demand for oil will obivoulsy be highernextyear be transit choice commuters will most likey go back to their cars after metro has to make major service cuts next year. Metro is unlikey to get a sales tax increase and i can't think any way metro could cut 28 million from their budget without cutting service.

In the 70's we had 10 years of oil left.

Peak oil will not occur anytime soon as new process have been developed to recover what was once unrecoverable oil. Canada for example has a reserve that would last for 100 years. Oil will, however, become more expensive due to the increased difficulty to recover this oil, but the doomsday stuff about oil running out is nonsense. In ten years we should be close enough to viable hydrogen powered cars that I doubt any peaking of oil would encourage further transit, unfortunate as that may be. I wish we would invest more in transit just as much as the next person, but I have to stay a realist.

On foxnews or cnn...not sure which channel it was...but they were discussing oil and the history of opec... The expert stated that only approx. 20% of the oil they no about is being extracted...many large oil fields lie below the oceans..some five miles below..

Thomas Malthus was wrong 200 years ago, and those who continue to believe in his theories will be wrong now. Human ingenuity will find something better for us to use. When the world was afraid we would run out of copper and chrome, we found steel. When the world thought we would all starve to death, we created high-yield plants (thank you monsanto predacessors!). When humanity really begins to run out of something, we'll find something else to use. such is the beauty of humanity.

^Did you not read all of the posts above yours? Peak oil will not occur. There is not point in discussing the timing of an event that will never happen.

I am new here and don't know you all. In fact, I live in Ohio, but grew up in Collinsville. I just have a question for Urban Elitist: What if you are wrong about Peak Oil? Where will we be then? Doesn't it make sense to prepare?



Here is my take: We have used up half the world's recoverable oil and that's the easy to get stuff. Any new finds will be smaller and harder to get to, witness the oil discovery in the gulf. It's 5 miles down and that is costly to recover.



My own personal view is that it isn't just a peaking of production which will drive prices up, but also increased demand, caused by the ramping up of economies in China, India and elsewhere. I think we'll be in a real Peak Oil scenario within 5 years, but we won't know it for sure for several years, since the data won't be available until after the fact.



If any of you are interested, there is a lengthy Peak Oil thread on the UrbanOhio website, under transportation discussion. Another place to look is www.Peakoil.net, a Swedish site that has all sorts of information.

Eastsidewillie wrote:I am new here and don't know you all. In fact, I live in Ohio, but grew up in Collinsville. I just have a question for Urban Elitist: What if you are wrong about Peak Oil? Where will we be then? Doesn't it make sense to prepare?

But I'm not wrong. If you look at the link I posted above it discusses the fact that Canada alone has a supply of oil that would last the world 100 years. I'm not saying the cost of oil won't rise, of course it will. I am saying that we will not just wake up one day in the next 20 years and suddenly run out of oil. Once hydrogen powered cars are viable, which thy likely will be in ten years and in fact BMW is releasing a 2007 model hydrogen powered car(combustion, not fuel cell), then we will significantly decrease our demand for oil. So we are preparing for the increased price of oil, by developing alternatives. So no more doomsday posts.

I don't think that's true.



First of all, oil is a non-renewable resource. At some point it will run out. When is debatable. For every expert that says we have 100 more years there is another expert that says we have 10.



Second of all, peak oil does not mean we will run out soon. Peak just means we have used only half of the available oil. The problem is, and just like the article you posted points out, that the remaining oil will be harder and harder to get out of the earth. Not impossible, just harder and more importantly more expensive. Which of course translates into higher prices at the pump, higher prices to heat our homes, higher prices for oil derivatives (plastics), higher prices for retail goods due to increased shipping and transportation costs.



Third of all, even without peak oil, there is still supply and demand. The demand has gone up dramatically with Brasil, Russia, India and China all increasing their oil consumption at an exponential rate. (demand up). And the annual oil production has actually decreased the last few years (supply down). Whether that's because there is less oil, it's harder to get to, or OPEC just wants to increase their profit margins is besides the point. Higher demand and lower supply equals price increases.



And then there's all the other factors - hurricanes affecting the oil rigs in the gulf, conflict in the middle east, broken pipelines....



Personally, my money is on oil and gas prices going higher and higher (literally), not in a straight line of course.



I wish the higher gas and oil prices would lead to more funding for other forms of transportation, less sprawl, more centralized cities, etc. Not just finding an alternative to the easy motoring lifestyle. If a cheap gas substitute is found, then you can count on more of the same - bigger highways, bigger wal-marts, bigger SUVs, longer commutes, less funding for mass-transit, more mcmansions spreading ever father out, and so on.



Anyway, looking into alternate energy is worth talking about. I enjoy hearing and learning about all the different ideas. Even if oil were to remain cheap and plentiful, the damage it is doing to the environment should justify finding alternate fuels alone. We're excited now because oil has gone down to $60 a barrel recently. That's still a 300% increase in just 5 years.... Whether or not this is the correct forum for it though is another thing...

^^It sounds like we are pretty much in complete agreement so I'm not sure what you think I have posted isn't true. I 100% agree with you that oil prices will rise(due to increased demand as well as more difficult to tap reserves, i.e. the Canadian tar sands), but we will not run out. I just doubt that it will have any long term effects on sprawl since oil replacements are on the horizion in the next two decades. Again, I'm just being realistic.

Also, recovering and refining the heavy crude from oil sands and oil shale release three times as much greenhouse gas as conventional oil. Plus the oil sand boom in Alberta has led to thousands of acres of trees and forests being clear cut.

buckethead wrote:Also, recovering and refining the heavy crude from oil sands and oil shale release three times as much greenhouse gas as conventional oil. Plus the oil sand boom in Alberta has led to thousands of acres of trees and forests being clear cut.

You are misinteperting my posts. I'm not in favor of continuing our reliance on fossil fuels. I am simply stating that we will not run out of oil because we know of areas where more oil exists. I'm not saying it will be easy/cheap/quick to extract it, only that we will not run out. And with oil replacement solutions on the horizion, I see no serious effect on sprawl occuring.

First of all, oil is a non-renewable resource. At some point it will run out. When is debatable. For every expert that says we have 100 more years there is another expert that says we have 10.

First of all, please take some time and read up on what oil actually is. It's a process caused by the decomposition of BIOLOGICAL material - that is dead plants and animals. As a resuly, it is by definition renewable. If we stopped pumping oil in the mideast, it would replenish itself. Slowly, yes, but would still renew. Until we as a world run out of lifeforms and all natural processes stop, we will always have oil



now, everyone loves to attack cars for their cause of pollution/greenhouse gases, etc. But the real polluters are coal burning power plants and heavy industry. Over here, the only other country besides the US and Canada to mostly drive large cars, car pollution only makes up 17% of all air pollution! cut that in half and you're only down to 8%! I can only assume the numbers are similar in the US.



Please, cars are an easy target by ignorant people to blame for many things, but really, with all the new pollution controls and fuel economy issues, they're 10x better than they used to be. And Oil, no matter what, will never ever ever ever, not in a trillion years, run out.

migueltejada wrote:First of all, please take some time and read up on what oil actually is. It's a process caused by the decomposition of BIOLOGICAL material - that is dead plants and animals. As a resuly, it is by definition renewable.

Assuming that you don't pump it faster than it is created. Just a hunch, but I suspect we are pumping it faster than it is being made.

The Central Scrutinizer wrote:

migueltejada wrote:First of all, please take some time and read up on what oil actually is. It's a process caused by the decomposition of BIOLOGICAL material - that is dead plants and animals. As a resuly, it is by definition renewable.

Assuming that you don't pump it faster than it is created. Just a hunch, but I suspect we are pumping it faster than it is being made.

Yes, I know what oil actually is. You got me. I shouldn't have said "non-renewable". We just have to wait for the kerogen to get buried in the sediment, rot down over a few years to re-enter the carbon

cycle, sink into the earth, buried in the rocks, compressed and heated. This of course takes a few hundred thousand years.



So, yes, you are right. It is renewable.... of course I think Central Scrutinizer is correct too.



Anyway, I don't want to argue about peak oil or whether you think it will last forever. The interest I have in oil from an urbanist view is more in the higher energy prices and how it could change society. Theoretically, I think it could lead to positive changes such as more walkable cities, less sprawl, more transportation options and funding.

I think Buckethead has it about right and I also agree that maybe some of the doomsday scenarios are a bit of a reach. "The Long Emergency" by Kunstler is pretty grim, as are websites like Dieback. I don't think change will be so radical or sudden, but will be more gradual and we can and will adjust. The issue as far as I am concerned is whether we will wake up as a nation and start to prepare for changes that will come.



We should be making it a national priority to get off the oil standard anyway. Why do we continue to buy oil from people who don't like us? We should use every tool at our disposal to achieve that goal, whether it be alterantive energy sources, addressing land use patterns or vastly improved public transportation.



That we are not doing these things suggests to me that those in the White House and some in Congress are beholden to interests (big oil) other than the American people. I'm probably going to offend someone here, but I think this is borderline treason.



It used to be that we had the attitude that this country could do anything. Where is that spirit now? The Manhattan project is one example of that "can-do" spirit I don't see anymore. We need to start pulling together on this stuff or we won't be much of a country anymore.

I cannot vote since we already hit peak oil.

Case completed, choas over oil begins.