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sc4mayor
sc4mayor

PostJun 10, 2022#1576

^ Didn’t a self-driving Uber car kill a homeless woman in AZ a few years ago?  While the guy behind the wheel texted on his phone?

Self-driving cars also don’t solve any capacity issues which is really the bread and butter of transit.  Most of those cars are still single occupancy vehicles that take up road space and need to be parked somewhere.

I think the whole self-driving car thing is ridiculous anyway.  Most Americans, especially those that rely on public transit, will never own one, and I bet there are plenty of people with means like myself who will simply refuse to own one.

It’s like those MIT guys years ago who said something along the lines of “self-driving cars won’t even have to stop at intersections!”  Until someone raised their hand and was like, uhhh what about pedestrians?  Cyclists?  Or like Musk’s Boring Company wanting to revolutionize tunnel building but all he cares about is building tunnels for Tesla vehicles.  Imagine if he put some effort into revolutionizing tunnel building for public transit…NY might actually complete the Second Avenue subway before the year 2500.  But he and most of these tech companies have no interest in making public transit better or more efficient…just finding ways to get people in their cars…
sc4mayor
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PostJun 10, 2022#1577

Bi-State has a larger map showing the potential North County segments currently under study:

https://www.bistatedev.org/2022/06/10/n ... 6Cu3gtl1xs
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PostJun 10, 2022#1578

sc4mayor wrote: ↑
Jun 10, 2022
Bi-State has a larger map showing the potential North County segments currently under study:

https://www.bistatedev.org/2022/06/10/n ... 6Cu3gtl1xs
If the county would respect the wishes of the Ferguson Commission and build their part of the line to Ferguson. I really think this would be a game changer for a large part of the region. The sad part about St. Louis regional fragmentation is that we would easily be able to build this minor expansion if the city was part of the county. With the right amount or cooperation I think we would probably be building the line from South City to Ferguson right now. Remember it was County Executive Stenger that shot down that proposal and probably a large part of the reason the Rams left town.
sc4mayor
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PostJun 10, 2022#1579

^ Lack of light rail to North County had absolutely nothing to do with the Rams leaving.  It had everything to do with fattening Kroenke's wallet.

The City and County are cooperating this time around...they'll issue a joint LPA later this year to EWG.  Stenger was a piece of sh*t and absolutely set us back, but he's gone.  It's time to move on.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1580

I do agree that it would be nice if we could take transit to Ferguson. 

I think it'd be fantastic if we could take it out to Old Town Florissant as well. 
sc4mayor
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PostJun 10, 2022#1581

It very well may go through Ferguson.  The original alignment after Goodfellow was West Florissant to FVCC.  That alignment would have went right past Canfield Drive.  The Bi-State map shown here also shows an alignment on West Florissant with different options for getting there from Natural Bridge.  Continuing along West Florissant to Chambers, or even points north, would more than serve the lower income parts of Ferguson and Dellwood.

My preference is Goodfellow and W. Florissant, something like this from a recent map I made, though I don't think I shared that map here.  Ignore that green line, that was a fantasy extension that would have continued to Old Town Florissant.


It sounds like City money will tackle this first phase and then the County will use its Prop A funds for some sort of a North County extension.
I'm guessing we'll know more in a couple of short months:
St. Louis County will fund the study while jointly managing it with the City of St. Louis and Bi-State Development.  The final locally preferred alternative (LPA) will be presented to the East-West Gateway Council of Governments for review and approval this fall.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1582

sc4mayor wrote: ↑
Jun 10, 2022
^ Didn’t a self-driving Uber car kill a homeless woman in AZ a few years ago?  While the guy behind the wheel texted on his phone?

Self-driving cars also don’t solve any capacity issues which is really the bread and butter of transit.  Most of those cars are still single occupancy vehicles that take up road space and need to be parked somewhere.

I think the whole self-driving car thing is ridiculous anyway.  Most Americans, especially those that rely on public transit, will never own one, and I bet there are plenty of people with means like myself who will simply refuse to own one.

It’s like those MIT guys years ago who said something along the lines of “self-driving cars won’t even have to stop at intersections!”  Until someone raised their hand and was like, uhhh what about pedestrians?  Cyclists?  Or like Musk’s Boring Company wanting to revolutionize tunnel building but all he cares about is building tunnels for Tesla vehicles.  Imagine if he put some effort into revolutionizing tunnel building for public transit…NY might actually complete the Second Avenue subway before the year 2500.  But he and most of these tech companies have no interest in making public transit better or more efficient…just finding ways to get people in their cars…
Self driving cars will be cheaper, safer and more efficient. I think it will almost become looked down upon to drive normal cars when self-driving cars are 10x more safe. Society will almost begin to shun people who are causing accidents that self-driving cars would easily detect and avoid. Why drive to work and cause congestion and traffic when you can sit in the back of your car doing work, playing video games or checking your instagram feed while your car drives as efficiently and safe as possible. I could see some weary parents buying their 16 year olds self-driving cars because of how much safer they are. Just wait for the insurance companies to realize this increase in safety as well. Self-driving insurance will be 10x cheaper because there will be 10x less accidents.  Think this tech will revolutionize how people travel. 

Like you said though, this does not solve capacity issues which is a big reason people vie for the subway/metro system.
sc4mayor
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PostJun 10, 2022#1583

^ Meanwhile, nearly 830,000 Teslas (nearly every model made since 2014) are on the verge of a recall because their automation systems aren't detecting trucks and emergency vehicles with flashing warning lights.  16 crashes so far.  The idea that any of this tech is on the verge of being widely adopted in this country is just a false one.
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... 254d2.html
Documents posted Thursday by the agency raise some serious issues about Tesla’s Autopilot system. The agency found that it’s being used in areas where its capabilities are limited, and that many drivers aren’t taking action to avoid crashes despite warnings from the vehicle.
Just like that guy driving an autonomous car in Phoenix looking at his phone while he plowed into a homeless lady crossing the street...
Why drive to work and cause congestion and traffic when you can sit in the back of your car doing work, playing video games or checking your instagram feed while your car drives as efficiently and safe as possible.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1584

sc4mayor wrote: ↑
Jun 10, 2022
^ Lack of light rail to North County had absolutely nothing to do with the Rams leaving.  It had everything to do with fattening Kroenke's wallet.

The City and County are cooperating this time around...they'll issue a joint LPA later this year to EWG.  Stenger was a piece of sh*t and absolutely set us back, but he's gone.  It's time to move on.
I didn't say it had to do with each other. It was more of an indictment of poor county leadership. Stenger specifically. 
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PostJun 10, 2022#1585

^^It sure is fun to fantasize about the inevitable but-only-slightly-delayed techno-utopia of the near future, but the reality is that its most famous evangelists are in fact total hucksters and their products mostly snake oil of one variety or another, including fully autonomous vehicles.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1586

sc4mayor wrote: ↑
Jun 10, 2022
^ Meanwhile, nearly 830,000 Teslas (nearly every model made since 2014) are on the verge of a recall because their automation systems aren't detecting trucks and emergency vehicles with flashing warning lights.  16 crashes so far.  The idea that any of this tech is on the verge of being widely adopted in this country is just a false one.
https://www.stltoday.com/business/local ... 254d2.html
Documents posted Thursday by the agency raise some serious issues about Tesla’s Autopilot system. The agency found that it’s being used in areas where its capabilities are limited, and that many drivers aren’t taking action to avoid crashes despite warnings from the vehicle.
Just like that guy driving an autonomous car in Phoenix looking at his phone while he plowed into a homeless lady crossing the street...
Why drive to work and cause congestion and traffic when you can sit in the back of your car doing work, playing video games or checking your instagram feed while your car drives as efficiently and safe as possible.
The Tesla "recall" is just for the software. Tesla sends out a required "over-the-air" software update to every car which disables full self-driving. Would not really effect the everyday consumer and their ability to manually drive the car.

Self-driving cars and tech for that matter get better exponentially. No one expects self-driving tech to be anywhere near perfect in the next 5 years but in another 10-15 it could be damn close. Remember dial-up internet 20 years ago? People doubted the internet and its usefulness but smart money knew of its future capabilities and spent billions developing it and look where we are now. Nearly every large tech company (Apple, Amazon(Lucid), Tesla, Google(Waymo)) are now developing this self-driving tech. When the smartest programmers and AI engineers in the world are working on a problem combined with 10s of billions in funding, you know it will get solved with time. 

Regardless, I do not think self-driving cars will kill public transit. This will still be a necessary part of our cities ecosystem. 
sc4mayor
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PostJun 10, 2022#1587

The internet is not the same thing as a 3,000 pound car traveling down the highway or a city street while its motorist stares at his phone.  As that article points out, even when the car was sending the appropriate warnings...drivers still weren't taking action.  Probably because they put too much faith in the tech and weren't paying attention to what was in front of their windshield.  "Damn close" isn't good enough when you actually consider what's at stake here.

And for what it's worth...Google, Uber, Apple, etc., will never end the poor judgment, distraction, and general bad behavior by a huge swath of American motorists.

Anyway, I'll just respectfully agree to disagree...we're getting a bit off topic here.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1588

thestlguy wrote: ↑
Jun 10, 2022
Self driving cars will be cheaper
Why would a car with more moving parts and much more complicated technology be cheaper? This is just silly.
safer 
Maybe, but probably not to anything like the degree hyped. And if they keep us car dependent longer they'll be plenty dangerous.
and more efficient..
Why? It's still a car. Fundamentally the same planform with rubber wheels and the same propulsion on the same roads. The efficiency will be pretty comparable, which is to say absolutely piss poor. (Mind you, I have a car and enjoy it, so I'm not saying we should ban them. But they are fundamentally toys, and they should be priced accordingly.)
 I think it will almost become looked down upon to drive normal cars when self-driving cars are 10x more safe. Society will almost begin to shun people who are causing accidents that self-driving cars would easily detect and avoid.
Given society's reaction to other safety measures I have complete faith that you're mistaken. Not only are the likely safety gains the subject of debate, but I think we need look no further than the current plague to see how society reacts to people who refuse to take certain safety measures. I haven't shunned my anti-vaxxer neighbors. I think they're wrong. I wish they'd get vaccinated. But they're my neighbors. I can't fix 'em and I'd rather sit down and have a beer with them than stand up and have a fight with them.
Why drive to work and cause congestion and traffic when you can sit in the back of your car doing work, playing video games or checking your instagram feed while your car drives as efficiently and safe as possible.
You do realize you've just described taking a bus or a train, right? (But not a self driving car, since that's not as efficient or safe as possible.)
 I could see some weary parents buying their 16 year olds self-driving cars because of how much safer they are. Just wait for the insurance companies to realize this increase in safety as well. Self-driving insurance will be 10x cheaper because there will be 10x less accidents.  Think this tech will revolutionize how people travel. 

Like you said though, this does not solve capacity issues which is a big reason people vie for the subway/metro system
Why can't we just give up on this car-dependent clap-trap and encourage real cities with real, walkable development? This is an urbanism forum. Self driving cars are fundamentally cars. They're not transit. They're not urban. They're private, inefficient, low density, and resource intensive. They're still heavy and dangerous to pedestrians. They still crush things and burn. They're still an inefficient and anti-social luxury.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1589

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PostJun 10, 2022#1590

For the skeptic.  What makes you skeptical.

Cost per mile or ride?
Safety & Technical Readiness?
Efficiency & Environmental Impact?

Its not a utopia, but it is potentially a way to address some of the underlying inequality that keeps people in poverty.  I am empathetic to those who are currently commuting via mass transit with long waits for buses and multiple transfers.  When you spend an hour on transit each way to get to your destination its hard to get things you need to do done.  The driver less taxi can potentially address this.

If it can't be done at a cost that is affordable for most people OR isn't safe to operate then it shouldn't go forward.  But if the government took the money it would otherwise use to build and maintain a BRT or LRT system and used it to subsidize the operation of a driver less taxi service over time i suspect you could bridge a lot of the cost gap and the safety gap if it exists is closing fast.  From an efficiency perspective it is not efficient for a person to travel 5 miles to go 2 miles or for rail lines to operate at 20% capacity off peak hours.  I guess they are good for the general health of the users since they require a fair amount of walking to and from the stops but this also limits their overall appeal.

As i lay this out it would be a service subsidized by the local government and operates only within a specified bubble and on routes that are approved.  If not supported by the county, trips to the airport and Clayton would drop you at the closest metro station.  I would def not be onboard with surge pricing models or similarly exploitative systems.  I think the pricing model should be more along the lines of a transit system.  I would suggest a pricing model that allowed for unlimited rides for a day or week or month and prioritization would pretty much be automatically sorted by algorithm based on when the request was made and the proximity to the closest available vehicle to improve overall ride equity.  The distribution would be determined by algorithm  and off peak hours would have the swarm cycling back for charging and maintenance.  At extreme peaks you could even limit the request to taking you to the nearest metrolink station to ensure the most efficient movement of people.  If people want to pay surge pricing from Uber or Lyft for immediate service so be it.  The full implementation of self driving anywhere and everywhere is decades away but for this very tailored application I would not be at all surprised if its available in 10 years.  For that reason since your build out of a light rail line is 10 years out, i think you have to really get a clear eyed assessment as to whether it worth putting dollars in when the system will be obsolete on opening day, and you are still only covering a subset of what i laid out covers.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1591

sc4mayor wrote: ↑
Jun 10, 2022
^ Didn’t a self-driving Uber car kill a homeless woman in AZ a few years ago?  While the guy behind the wheel texted on his phone?

Self-driving cars also don’t solve any capacity issues which is really the bread and butter of transit.  Most of those cars are still single occupancy vehicles that take up road space and need to be parked somewhere.

I think the whole self-driving car thing is ridiculous anyway.  Most Americans, especially those that rely on public transit, will never own one, and I bet there are plenty of people with means like myself who will simply refuse to own one.

It’s like those MIT guys years ago who said something along the lines of “self-driving cars won’t even have to stop at intersections!”  Until someone raised their hand and was like, uhhh what about pedestrians?  Cyclists?  Or like Musk’s Boring Company wanting to revolutionize tunnel building but all he cares about is building tunnels for Tesla vehicles.  Imagine if he put some effort into revolutionizing tunnel building for public transit…NY might actually complete the Second Avenue subway before the year 2500.  But he and most of these tech companies have no interest in making public transit better or more efficient…just finding ways to get people in their cars…
Ok. But once they make it work for cars, they can make it work for big cars, and then really big cars; busses.

What percentage of bus costs are attributable to drivers? I reckon like most machine operators, it’s decent. Bring that down and makes bus fares even cheaper.
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PostJun 10, 2022#1592

Idea: Self shooting guns. Guns with AI that only fire when there is a confirmed and legal threat.

I like DB crude metro map, anything more than that is a waste of money.

PostJun 10, 2022#1593

DB didn't create the map so I shouldn't call it crude. But that map is good.

And, yeah, Self-shooting guns.
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PostJun 11, 2022#1594

Sure did, the map in my tweet is my handy snip and paint job.
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PostJun 11, 2022#1595

RuskiSTL wrote: ↑
Jun 09, 2022
Hypothetically, would you take 4 of these BRT lines? Or the one LRT line? If so which 4 would you choose first?
Personally I'm interested to know how many normal bus lines we could upgrade to off-peak 10minute frequency for the cost of one LRT line.
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PostJun 11, 2022#1596

With the staffing shortages it is unclear any amount of money could upgrade bus service in St. Louis substantially.
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PostJun 11, 2022#1597

I wonder if we’ll see a resurrection of Downtown Streetcar plan now that N/S is a little less direct.

Couldn’t a downtown corridor like Olive self fund via taxing districts(& federal match) similar to KC?
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PostJun 17, 2022#1598

I'm wondering when/if we'll get more details on this North County extension. It's not been studied in quite a long time as far as I know. 

A question I have about that alignment is I believe previous studies considered the possibility of using the Norfolk-Southern Rail ROW that runs parallel to West Florissant rather than the street itself. I actually think from Goodfellow to West Florissant that would be the better route, especially considering how a West Florissant & Lucas/Hunt stop would be right next to a country club. 
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PostJun 17, 2022#1599

In the 2008 study (that covered 16 miles of proposed NS metrolink & before north side lost 40,000 people), it was projected that there would be 5000 daily users in north, 7300 in south and 2600 in downtown
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PostJul 06, 2022#1600

How feasible would it be to build a transfer station at the Jefferson viaduct where the blue/red lines and new N/S Metrolink line will intersect? 

I would think it would be an important goal for the system to have that transfer station and connect the transit lines, though I wonder if the Jefferson viaduct and freight yard would allow it. 

Something similar to the Grand station makes sense in my head, with the blue/red lines below the viaduct and the N/S line (#70) on it. But is there actually enough room for that? It's clearly much tighter than it is at Grand. 

Also, will the N/S line be the "yellow" or "gold" line? I've only ever seen it illustrated in those colors.  
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